Globalism (Vapor Trail)

[Westside Steve]

I cut and pasted this from Vapor Trails response and the Afghanistan thread. I thought it was an interesting discussion on its own.

Globalism is basically the world order where everyone agrees not to pirate each others' trade vessels because the US Navy will come and lay waste to your ass if you choose to do this anywhere on the globe. This status quo has only existed since the end of WW2. Up to this point, literally for the rest of history, the great powers of the world were in a constant state of war with each other. National colonialism was the rule of law. The post-WW2 Bretton Woods agreements that led to the decline of colonialism and the creation of a US-led global order.

As the European and Asian economies were destroyed by the war, the burgeoning US economy propped up everyone else as a hedge against the Soviet threat. The US guaranteed safety of free and open trade lanes to rebuild their economy in exchange for military alliances against the Soviets. These agreements led to the financial collapse of the Soviet Union and the longest era in written history where great powers did not war directly with each other. This is very much an anomaly. This has allowed many nations, such as China, to exist and prosper, when in any other era, they'd have been conquered by their neighbors. While the US led system was designed to economically cripple the USSR, it also ironically got abused by China ever since Nixon let them into the fold, leading to the problems we have today.

HW Bush was the last US president to give a damn about this system. The trend of every president since him was to back away from it more and more (with the exception of Dubya and Cheney getting their cronies wealthy by getting us into the Iraq and Afghanistan quagmires). Biden and Trump are more on the same page than most people want to let on when it comes to foreign policy. For example, Biden placed additional trade sanctions on Iran 3 weeks ago. It really doesn't matter who's at the wheel, the trend in the last 25 years is pretty clear - the US is no longer interested in subsidizing the safety and economy of the rest of the world. It's going to get chaotic out there.

[Westside Steve]

Personally just on face value I don't see any way around it creasing globalism. Communications language barriers travel Etc have made the world a much smaller place.

Just over the last couple hundred years or so the entire idea of State autonomy has fallen by the wayside and giving way federalism. It will happen with the world, whether or not anybody enjoys giving up sovereignty.

It's just going to depend who's in the driver's seat; United States? China? European Union? The russkies?

Just for example if the United States finds itself in the role of the world's policeman the countries that don't have to invest in their own protection we'll have to make concessions to us. Or they should.

If not the up-and-coming contender China will probably take up that Slack. And the fact that the United States is turning away from nationalism doesn't bode well for will be calling the shots.

WSS

 

[calfoxwc]

looking at the eu and united nations alone...

globalism gives the like of them complete and total power over the world's economy.

which bypasses America's freedom. The ultimate dream of billionaire egomaniacs around the world.

Not a good way to protect America and other western nations.

Globalism is like the desires of Japan, nazis, communist china, etc.... to rule the world.

The totally worthless and corrupt UN would have a field day - collecting big money from the entire world.

[VaporTrail]

The US led global order is going away. They will withdraw from the world, but they will continue to have the most powerful navy in the world and be able to place it wherever they want. The world is too big for any single entity to control. The US was only able to hold onto that power in the context of  China won't ever be anything more than a regional hegemon imo. That's what the world is going to turn into, a bunch of neo-colonial regional powers trying to go about their business. 

Here are my issues with China becoming a global hegemon. 
-The country has historically been a constant warzone. Jinping has done some morally questionable shit in the past 5 years - particularly to the Uighur people and the posturing toward Taiwan. Why would they do that and televise it to the world? He got the whole western world aligned against him, but that was by design. The West isn't a threat to the CCP (with the exception of the US withdrawing from the Bretton Woods agreements). The Chinese people, whose demographics have been ruined by the one child policy has left them with a lot of unmarried, lonely, and angry men. When that demographic of people has nothing better to do, it typically ends in violence. If they get violent, the first thing to get toppled are the people running the show over there. By getting the West outraged at China, Jinping has created a high degree of national pride and unity by directing the anger of lonely men toward the rest of the world. This is a short term solution for Jinping. 
-They are basically dependent on oil from the Middle East. If the US decides not to play ball with them, then they must get all their oil via Russia, The Middle East, and Iran. Any oil that comes from the Mid East by tanker has to go through Southeast Asian island chains that are likely not going to be very friendly to them. They're planning on building a pipeline through Afghanistan to get Iranian oil (LOL). Russia only has so much to give. It's simply unviable to get all that oil without the US Navy guaranteeing open seas. They are building up their navy, but they're not going to be able to protect them from all the salvos of cruise missiles they'll see on the way. 
-To accomplish point 2, they'll need to annex a bunch of Southeast Asian ports. They've already alienated the West with what they did in point 1. They will probably get Taiwan back in the next decade or two. Maaybe they'll be able to take Subic Bay without much but diplomatic and economic sanctions. If they try to do the same with Singapore and Indonesia, then you might be looking at WW3. 

China as anything more than a regional hegemon seems untenable to me. 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

If PI would give the base agreement back to the USA then Subic Bay would be an American Naval Base again.  That's a start.