cccjwh Posted June 25, 2020 Report Share Posted June 25, 2020 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/ First, Biden’s lead has clearly widened in the past month. He now leads by more than 9 points, but on May 25, Biden led by an average of only 5.8 points (48.9 percent to 43.1 percent). But some people have dismissed Biden’s lead by pointing out that Hillary Clinton also led in most polls of the 2016 election (Clinton, obviously, ended up losing to Trump). While this is true, Clinton’s lead was much smaller. Applying our current polling-average methodology to 2016 polls, Clinton led national polls by an average of about 4.0 points four months before the 2016 election, and 3.8 points on Election Day itself. So while a normal-sized polling error was enough to throw the 2016 election to Trump, it would take a much bigger — and much unlikelier — polling error for Trump to be ahead right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbluhm86 Posted June 25, 2020 Report Share Posted June 25, 2020 After 2016, I don't put much stock in polls anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LBC mike Posted June 25, 2020 Report Share Posted June 25, 2020 but they were so accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/some-investors-are-making-bets-on-an-election-sell-off-fearing-a-democratic-sweep.html The markets surged immediately after Trumps election. Good chance they tank if the unimaginable happens. Go ahead morons vote for Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Gorka said: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/some-investors-are-making-bets-on-an-election-sell-off-fearing-a-democratic-sweep.html The markets surged immediately after Trumps election. Good chance they tank if the unimaginable happens. Go ahead morons vote for Biden. They are wise, selling short.... You should start imagining the MAGA unimaginable.... Other than you hard core MAGAs- in almost all of the early demographics- Colt 45 is is big trouble. College educated, suburban, women- black (I know, hard to believe there). Go hug your Trump poster pal. Unless Joe looks like a complete imbecile in the debates, get ready to cry in your Trump beer. Us college educated folks who have come to the realization that Trump is a moron (and a Quack Doctor) resent that... Apparently I (we) have plenty of company..... PS- them thar market sheeple are disgusting... Horrible bad if Biden wins... Here's a Market hot tip for you right now. The only reason the market hasn't completely tanked is there was a ton of movement from almost zero yielding CDs and bonds into the market that theoretically could be a tad better.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Remember you talking about a block that always goes Democrat so BFD. Ironically just like criminals and inner-city illiterate. And at the end of the day you are voting for the destruction of the inner city murders riots looting vandalism destruction of historic monuments regardless of who they are regressive taxation job and economy killing policies the most cynical pandering we've ever seen and a candidate who is it the early stages of dementia. Well, who knows how early? But yes Donald Trump is rude. "I wont vote for Brad Pitt, he seems a little gay. I'm voting for Charles Nelson Reilly." WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvoethe Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Im not gonna cry if trump loses...Im gonna be disaster prepping for 4 years of whoever is pulling Bidens strings. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Kvoethe said: Im not gonna cry if trump loses...Im gonna be disaster prepping for 4 years of whoever is pulling Bidens strings. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Politics 'Security risks'? Biden's past rhetoric on gay rights could complicate LGBT claims on campaign trail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 10 hours ago, Kvoethe said: Im not gonna cry if trump loses...Im gonna be disaster prepping for 4 years of whoever is pulling Bidens strings. if that worst case scenario happens - a LOT of folks will be disaster prepping. stock up on food, and ammo, because the price of it will skyrocketed, and the roadblocks will fly - our only hope would be at least keep the senate. or, all corrupt hell breaks loose, I think.https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/massive-spike-in-gun-ammo-sales-fbi-background-checks-break-record-in-may Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaconHound Posted June 26, 2020 Report Share Posted June 26, 2020 Well we voted in a pre-Alzheimer’s president who’s main campaign slogan, “no new taxes” was a complete lie but at least he wasn’t a Democrat 🤦♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 6 hours ago, calfoxwc said: if that worst case scenario happens - a LOT of folks will be disaster prepping. stock up on food, and ammo, because the price of it will skyrocketed, and the roadblocks will fly - our only hope would be at least keep the senate. or, all corrupt hell breaks loose, I think.https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/massive-spike-in-gun-ammo-sales-fbi-background-checks-break-record-in-may Get your bunker ready Cal... Of course out in the country- you're pretty safe. Or just move to Saint Stephens Wyoming if you want to feel really safe... My friends at the Arapaho Mission will make you feel right at home.... MAGAs would find the vast open spaces of Bairoil or Muddy Gap more to their liking.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 11 hours ago, BaconHound said: Well we voted in a pre-Alzheimer’s president who’s main campaign slogan, “no new taxes” was a complete lie but at least he wasn’t a Democrat 🤦♂️ I thought no new taxes was Bush Senior. But if you're talking about Reagan vs Biden the keyword is pre... 😉 WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 As much as I dislike Trump, there is no way in hell I could vote for the Biden/Schumer/Pelosi party. So Trumps got my vote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said: As much as I dislike Trump, there is no way in hell I could vote for the Biden/Schumer/Pelosi party. So Trumps got my vote. I can't imagine how anybody could disagree with that sentiment. The Democrats have aligned themselves with the most dangerous most destructive and most Progressive elements of society. WSS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 13 hours ago, hoorta said: Get your bunker ready Cal... Of course out in the country- you're pretty safe. Or just move to Saint Stephens Wyoming if you want to feel really safe... My friends at the Arapaho Mission will make you feel right at home.... MAGAs would find the vast open spaces of Bairoil or Muddy Gap more to their liking.... ha. you've been watching "Red Dawn" too many times, I reckon. Nobody I know has a bunker - but we did go out and teach our friend how to shoot. She'd never shot a gun - she's pretty good with a .22 rifle now. Not real comfortable with the 9mm. Say, Hoorta - you want to come out to the farm and do some groundhog skeet? ............... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, calfoxwc said: ha. you've been watching "Red Dawn" too many times, I reckon. Nobody I know has a bunker - but we did go out and teach our friend how to shoot. She'd never shot a gun - she's pretty good with a .22 rifle now. Not real comfortable with the 9mm. Say, Hoorta - you want to come out to the farm and do some groundhog skeet? ............... LOL, I just might take you up on that... Last time visiting my brother in law in the outback of Dudley North Carolina- we even got my wife to take a few shots with a .410 . I didn't get to see it too well, because I did the shooting, but everyone else said it was mighty impressive when I hit a cinder block with a 12 gauge rifled slug.... Think I mentioned grew up in a hunting family, don't hunt anymore because if I'm not going to eat it, I'm not going to kill it. The nephews and brothers still all hunt though. Things are getting bad enough I've been thinking about getting a 9mm. Don't do any shooting on my own anymore, because I'm too lazy to clean the guns afterwards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 8 hours ago, hoorta said: LOL, I just might take you up on that... Last time visiting my brother in law in the outback of Dudley North Carolina- we even got my wife to take a few shots with a .410 . I didn't get to see it too well, because I did the shooting, but everyone else said it was mighty impressive when I hit a cinder block with a 12 gauge rifled slug.... Think I mentioned grew up in a hunting family, don't hunt anymore because if I'm not going to eat it, I'm not going to kill it. The nephews and brothers still all hunt though. Things are getting bad enough I've been thinking about getting a 9mm. Don't do any shooting on my own anymore, because I'm too lazy to clean the guns afterwards... but you didn't ask how to do groundhog skeet. That is where you, as my guest, reach into the groundhog hole, pull him out, throw him up into the air, and I shoot him. Steve would have, but is always ...too busy. Of course, I'd take my turn after you................................😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, calfoxwc said: but you didn't ask how to do groundhog skeet. That is where you, as my guest, reach into the groundhog hole, pull him out, throw him up into the air, and I shoot him. Steve would have, but is always ...too busy. Of course, I'd take my turn after you................................😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoorta Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 1 hour ago, calfoxwc said: but you didn't ask how to do groundhog skeet. That is where you, as my guest, reach into the groundhog hole, pull him out, throw him up into the air, and I shoot him. Steve would have, but is always ...too busy. Of course, I'd take my turn after you................................😁 I know too much about groundhogs to ever dare picking a live one up without kevlar gloves on. Largest member of the squirrel family with teeth to match. As my Dad said- after you shoot a squirrel, you had better make sure it's dead before you pick it up. From my bike ride roadkill surveys, groundhogs are only surpassed by opossums in accidental traffic deaths. Still feel (a little) bad I took out a raccoon a month ago- I missed his buddy, but took out the next one 100 feet down the road- at 55 mph- sorry pal, you made a bad choice.... BTW, I actually killed a rabbit on my bike. As you realize, they're unpredictable, and I was always worried what would happen if I ever hit one. It was night, and I was booking down an incline doing around 20 mph. Hit the furball dead center. Didn't bother the bike stability, but the rabbit lasted about a minute from massive internal injuries... Too bad I wasn't in Cleveland- the nephews would gratefully have accepted a free dinner. As it was, a coyote or feral cat probably had a free lunch that night- I kicked it over to the side of the bikepath, went back the next day to look for it, but it was gone.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.