Westside Steve Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 https://www.kunc.org/post/all-models-are-wrong-some-are-useful-what-covid-19-predictions-can-and-cant-tell-us#stream/0 Let the spinning commence WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calfoxwc Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Westside Steve said: https://www.kunc.org/post/all-models-are-wrong-some-are-useful-what-covid-19-predictions-can-and-cant-tell-us#stream/0 Let the spinning commence WSS Wait, it's science..... ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sinRide a painted pony let the spinnin' wheel spin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Check it out folks...from CNN I called it a couple weeks ago ...when I had said that when this is over we rational folks are gonna say "we told you so" and you leftist fear monger's are gonna claim the low death rate is because of social distancing. Riiiiiiight. Top public health official says number of dead could be lower as Americans practice social distancing A source close to the task force said it's possible the eventual death toll will be "way under" the 100,000-to-240,000 figure. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics/white-house-coronavirus-death-projections/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Axe Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted April 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 36 minutes ago, Axe said: I wonder what's to be gained by exaggerating the effects? John Prine also just recently cancelled a tour because of heart surgery and near the end of March was also diagnosed with double pneumonia. WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted April 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/491217-when-computer-models-create-mayhem WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 10 hours ago, calfoxwc said: Wait, it's science..... ! Oh magic donkey of the lake, what is to be our future death rate from Coronavirus! Did you even read the article? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Westside Steve said: https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/491217-when-computer-models-create-mayhem WSS An opinion piece that moves into some climate change denier territory The important take away is that the press will report more clickable numbers and people that don't know what they're looking at will eat it up. This doesn't discredit computer models or their purpose (or even their accuracy). It's just another example of taking the headline without the details or an understanding of the story and rolling with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Westside Steve said: I wonder what's to be gained by exaggerating the effects? John Prine also just recently cancelled a tour because of heart surgery and near the end of March was also diagnosed with double pneumonia. WSS If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death? What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Westside Steve said: I wonder what's to be gained by exaggerating the effects? John Prine also just recently cancelled a tour because of heart surgery and near the end of March was also diagnosed with double pneumonia. WSS He had/has lung cancer too. Throat cancer. In and out of hospitals since the mid 90's. He was a mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted April 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, MLD Woody said: If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death? What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die? Who knows but furthermore what's the difference? Lots of people die of pneumonia. Like deaths on the highway, whether or not a driver's level of intoxication contributed to the accident it's going to be labeled a Drunk Driving death. I would imagine that a great number of people who died with influenza also have contributing factors but in the end is called an influenza death. There's always a what if but I don't see why that's a deal-breaker one way or the other? WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, MLD Woody said: If someone has pneumonia but is expected to survive, but then gets Corona and dies, what is the cause of death? What if someone has an underlying condition, like obesity, that is affecting their lifespan. Let's say they were going to die in 10 years. But they get Corona and die? I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think. Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it? Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Gorka said: I see your point but that's kind of extreme I think. Corona kills the fat guy for sure but obesity isn't considered a pre-existing condition is it? Yes Corona is what finally did these elderly sick people in, but I think the objective here is for us to keep in mind Corona is not an indiscriminate killer. In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona? And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 58 minutes ago, MLD Woody said: In some cases it isn't, and some it is. If it is 51% or more of the reason someone died should it count as Corona? And honestly idk about obesity. Does that count as a pre-existing condition? No. Just looked it up. Different preexisting conditions — including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and kidney disease — were found at varying rates among the patients who have died. Remember how Italy is being hit hard. Italy also reports about half of people who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LBC mike Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 I can't till we all start taking about football again 😕 instead of this. Just saying. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorka Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said: One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter. No it's really not clear. The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 47 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said: One thing is clear from all models. Social distancing levels & compliance and length of time do matter. Without a doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Gorka said: No. Just looked it up. Different preexisting conditions — including heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and kidney disease — were found at varying rates among the patients who have died. Remember how Italy is being hit hard. Italy also reports about half of people who died with COVID-19 had three or more underlying conditions, while just 2% of deaths were in people with no preexisting ailments. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/age-risk-severe-coronavirus-disease-69860317 Right but what percentage of the population at large already has multiple pre existing conditions? How many people have 0 pre-existing conditions? I'm a healthy guy in his twenties but I have asthma. I imagine that counts. Without knowing the population numbers as a whole regarding pre-existing conditions that stat above doesn't help us. And then you could have diabetes and high blood pressure but expect to live another twenty years. Shouldn't Corona virus be listed as the cause of death? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLD Woody Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, Gorka said: No it's really not clear. The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america It is though because it's the relative difference between two models showing different levels of social distancing that's important Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htownbrown Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 hours ago, MLD Woody said: An opinion piece that moves into some climate change denier territory How so? *Questioning the input data of any given model makes you a "denier"?* Well that's lazy terminology at best. *-Not a direct quote from Woody. Implied only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westside Steve Posted April 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/06/americas-most-influential-coronavirus-model-just-revised-its-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees/ WSS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htownbrown Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 19 minutes ago, Canton Dawg said: How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic? I presume they would have to test positive for covid to count. If you have a combo of the two, you almost certainly will contribute to the covid death stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, Canton Dawg said: How many deaths that are normally attributed to seasonal flu, will now be credited as a Covid 19 statistic? Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid? Door swings both ways. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 hours ago, Gorka said: No it's really not clear. The models as wrong as they were always have taken into account social distancing.https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america In the link provided they discussed the percentage of people distancing. The smaller the % the worse the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htownbrown Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths (1).pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canton Dawg Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 2 hours ago, tiamat63 said: Conversely, since many believe this disease has been here for longer than we initially believe and it was an exceptionally bad flu season - how many deaths attributed to flu may have been covid? Door swings both ways. When you compare the number of deaths...that’s a very large door for seasonal flu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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