Corona Virus is in Cuyahoga County

[JAFBF]

2 hours ago, runyon27 said:

Thats more cases than China has reported or Korea or Italy etc. I find that number to be made up. Also all the evidence to date that I have heard would mean that thousands of people would be seeking medical care, yet between the reported known cases and people under watch, total up to like 400 people in Ohio.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

 

There's another article somewhere where some deaths attributed to the Flu tested positive.

 

This is has been around a lot longer than what is being told, it's just been mistaken for Flu / Cold.

 

 

[hammertime]

1 hour ago, JAFBF said:

https://www.nbc4i.com/nmw-coronavirus/ohio-health-official-estimates-100000-ohioans-already-carrying-coronavirus/

 

Apparently it's been around longer than first thought.

 

I hadn’t got a cold since I quit smoking 3 years ago.

 Finally got a sore throat and a mild cough .(maybe 2 weeks ago)  Total time of discomfort 6-7 days, slight reoccurrence maybe 2 days later.

wouldnt be surprised if I had the damn Wuhan Flu and am over it already.

Things should have never snowballed like this.

[JAFBF]

1 hour ago, hammertime said:

I hadn’t got a cold since I quit smoking 3 years ago.

 Finally got a sore throat and a mild cough .(maybe 2 weeks ago)  Total time of discomfort 6-7 days, slight reoccurrence maybe 2 days later.

wouldnt be surprised if I had the damn Wuhan Flu and am over it already.

Things should have never snowballed like this.

I had a low fever and aches about a little over a week ago, went away for the most part.

 

Today it's back (different aches), and my wife was ill this morning.

 

I'm basically at ground zero in the US though, so not surprising.

 

Company has us working from home for the month - I'm loving that part of it.

 

[hammertime]

Stay strong. I’m most worried about my 80 + year old mom .

[calfoxwc]

I'm worried about our farmer friends - well into their eighties - both with various health problems. Have to call them tomorrow.

Ohio schools are closing for three weeks starting Monday. Just seems weird - never seen a flu season with the transport of the virus all over the entire globe? like this.

[JAFBF]

Passenger describes virus.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/coronavirus-patient-from-diamond-princess-explains-what-the-illness-feels-like-80075845933

 

[The Cysko Kid]

2 hours ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

Don't worry folks, its just a cold:

 

 

Italy has the oldest population in Europe and only has 12.5 ICU beds per 100,000. 

 

Let's put this in perspective.a typical flu season is 13 weeks average and might see between 30-60,000 people dead. This has been going on since mid December, surely earlier given the asymptomatic nature of it - that's three months - a hard 12 weeks and the global death rate is under 5000. 

 

If the 100,000 number in Ohio is anywhere close to correct and you extrapolate that out to the whole world you're looking at MILLIONS of cases and it's still under 5000. That is not a 10% mortality rate. It's not a 3% mortality rate. It's not even a 1%. 

It's not over yet but I'll place a wager with anyone who wants to place one that when all is said and done it's proven to be a sub 1% death rate. 

[The Cysko Kid]

1 hour ago, runyon27 said:

In Ohio or around the world? China is testing 10s of thousands a day, so the 100K is just grossly irresponsible. If you want to say we believe there are many more other there than have been reported and we cant to curb further spread etc, thats legit. Saying 100K is fear mongering.

I find it to be the opposite frankly. It's fear mongering to say so little people have it and they're all dying. We know for a fact it's spreading despite so few people being reported. Therefore many more people must have it than are being reported. Making it seem like it's this creeping plague that's killing everyone that it touches ...the very definition of fear mongering. 

[runyon27]

31 minutes ago, The Cysko Kid said:

I find it to be the opposite frankly. It's fear mongering to say so little people have it and they're all dying. We know for a fact it's spreading despite so few people being reported. Therefore many more people must have it than are being reported. Making it seem like it's this creeping plague that's killing everyone that it touches ...the very definition of fear mongering. 

You may find the opposite to be true but you posit no facts to back it up. Yes its 100% logical there are more than whats recorded, not its not logical to say that Ohio has more cases than China and Italy combined. Thats stupidity.

[The Cysko Kid]

China and especially Italy have both done shit testing. 

[The Cysko Kid]

What you're saying is you think the reported numbers are somewhat accurate. They are not accurate at all. 

[JAFBF]

9 hours ago, The Cysko Kid said:

What you're saying is you think the reported numbers are somewhat accurate. They are not accurate at all. 

You got it.

 

 

Lot of people just ride it out at home as well thinking it's Flu/Cold, and only go to Dr. if things get really bad.

 

What complicates things even more is there are two strains of the Flu going around, and at least four strains of Corona (so can be caught more than once).

 

It's not super lethal like all the hype being pushed out, the MSM is guilty in causing the hysteria and causing the shelves to be cleared of TP.

 

 

[calfoxwc]

Well, after years of my Wife and I not getting flu shots, way, way before last winter, she decided that maybe we should get our flu shots this year, on a hunch...so we did. Now, she's always been brilliant - and after all this corona balogna - it's ironic we got them and all this started to happen about three months later. I have great instincts - hers are much better.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Flu shot is good for the flu, doesn't help against covid 19 however.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

 

[JAFBF]

 

[Vambo]

11 minutes ago, JAFBF said:

 

Media

Bernie Sanders warns coronavirus deaths could exceed armed forces casualties in WWII

[calfoxwc]

1 hour ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

Flu shot is good for the flu, doesn't help against covid 19 however.

true, it doesn't stop all flues...flus? either.

But I'd hate to get the flu, and then get covid19.... not too worried, I'm only about 31

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[jbluhm86]

15 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

...But I'd hate to get the flu, and then get covid19.... not too worried, I'm only about 31

In dog years?

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[calfoxwc]

1 hour ago, jbluhm86 said:

In dog years?

nope. It's just that when I turned fifty, I started having negative birthdays - and started counting backwards. I figured i'd rather be one and helpless, than 99 someday. That is why I don't look my age at all. And my Wife is 28, I started counting her age backwards too.

A lot of my friends do it. It's all the rage. I'm a trendsetter. Just bursting with great ideas and perspectives.

Our dentist decided it was a great idea... my knee replacement surgeon really liked the idea... and lol....

The truth is, there is a little bit of genius in everybody. You just have to find it. Liberals are not good at finding it, though..........

[calfoxwc]

The following additional resources can be used to provide more information:

1.    CDC: What You Need to Know about Coronavirus
2.    CDC: What To Do if You’re Sick with Coronavirus
3.    CDC: Symptoms of Coronavirus Poster
4.    CDC: Stop the Spread of Germs Poster
5.   USDA Coronavirus Page

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Dear Friends,

So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.

You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.

This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But we don’t know of anyone who has previously been exposed to this, which means before this event we don’t know of anyone with immunity to it.

The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While most people should recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it may wind up with a serious disease. They could get pneumonia that causes shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.

Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically.

This is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States. But it gets worse.

Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for people aged 70 to 79. Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will not die yourself. You could catch it by touching a door knob or an elevator button.

Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.

Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.

The United States is not at this point yet, with millions infected, as best we can tell. We don’t have the evidence yet. We are likely many weeks behind other countries in rolling out widespread testing, so we don’t really know how far the thing has spread. We do know that cases are starting to pop up all over the place, with many of the people having no known exposure to travelers from China, so that means this virus has escaped into our communities.

We do not have approved treatments, yet. We do not have a vaccine. The only tool we really have now is to try to slow down the chain of transmission.

This can be done. In other words, R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and the contact-tracing that you are hearing so much about in the news. But the virus is exploding so fast that we may not have the labor available to trace contacts for much longer, so we have to shift strategies. This has already begun, but we are not doing it fast enough.

It is now likely that the majority of Americans will get this virus. But slowing it down is still crucial. Why? Because the health care system has limited resources. We only have about a million hospital beds in America. We have well under a million ventilators. If millions of Americans get sick enough to need treatment, we will have a calamity on our hands. What will happen is a form of battlefield triage, where the doctors focus on trying to treat some and allow other people to die.

This is not theoretical. It is already happening in Italy, where really ill people are being left alone on hospital gurneys to suffocate to death from pneumonia. They basically drown in their own sputum. There is simply not enough medical capacity to take care of them. The United States appears to be about two weeks behind Italy on the epidemic growth curve.

What do we need to do now? We need to cancel all large gatherings – all of them. You have probably seen that the N.B.A. has postponed the rest of its season. Other sporting events, concerts, plays and everything else involving large audiences in a small space – all of it needs to be canceled. Even if these events take place, do not go to them. No lectures, no plays, no movies, no cruises – nothing.

Stay at home as much as possible.Stay out of restaurants. I would cancel any travel that is not absolutely essential. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful. Wash your hands assiduously after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers. If you can’t wash with soap and water, use alcohol based hand sanitizer.

And please stop passing around statements on social media claiming that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a crisis, and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger.

 

 

 

[tiamat63]

France declares state of emergency.

 

Oh and, half of the patients in ICU are under 50 there.  So the whole "this only fucks up the elderly" is going out the window pretty quick. 

[OldBrownsFan]

All the sporting events would never have shut down like they did if they did not recognize this virus as a very serious threat. Some of the best information we have now is from South Korea where the fatality rate is .06 percent which is a good sign.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

[DieHardBrownsFan]

2 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

All the sporting events would never have shut down like they did if they did not recognize this virus as a very serious threat. Some of the best information we have now is from South Korea where the fatality rate is .06 percent which is a good sign.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

But testing people who don't have the virus should not be in the equation.

[tiamat63]

23 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

All the sporting events would never have shut down like they did if they did not recognize this virus as a very serious threat. Some of the best information we have now is from South Korea where the fatality rate is .06 percent which is a good sign.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

 

Fantastic.  By that math it's 300x the mortality rate of  the swine flu.  That same one which killed 12k people.

 

Funny how exponential shit gets when that number column moves just ONCE to the left.

 

Wait, your article says .6%.   Not .06%.     You do realize the HUGE difference between those two, correct?

[MLD Woody]

21 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

All the sporting events would never have shut down like they did if they did not recognize this virus as a very serious threat. Some of the best information we have now is from South Korea where the fatality rate is .06 percent which is a good sign.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

 

19 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

But testing people who don't have the virus should not be in the equation.

The article shows 0.6% as the fatality rate, not 0.06%. 6,000 cases with 35 deaths. 

Also, DH, that means that rate is only including those that have the virus. Not everyone tested. 

 

As milder cases get tested and confirmed the rate would drop. At the same time though there are people that will die, that haven't yet, that will increase the rate. 

Right now you have either recovered, have died, or are currently sick with an unknown result. It sounds like that unknown result is essentially counting as a "not death". 

So there is still potential open movement on the fatality rate both ways 

[MLD Woody]

2 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

 

Fantastic.  By that math it's 300x the mortality rate of  the swine flu.  That same one which killed 12k people.

 

Funny how exponential shit gets when that number column moves just ONCE to the left.

 

Wait, your article says .6%.   Not .06%.     You do realize the HUGE difference between those two, correct?

Ah, you just beat me to posting. 

 

Leave it to this crisis to shine a light on our country's great understanding of numbers