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shepwrite

The NFL's Most Meaningful Stat

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Actually that old broad from Maine makes me want to puke, she doesn't have a pair, she gave in to the pressure.

 

Good one. Opposing the side threatening violence is 'giving in to pressure.'

 

20090912UnarmedThisTime.jpg

 

What a weakling.

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the QB of the AFC North division leaders is 24th in "passer rating"

 

And his team is 3-2.

 

Hey, we could aspire to be 3-2 if our QB was 24th in passer rating. Too bad he'll end up 124th.

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Guest Masters
Yeah you got me Golfer, I had a Retarded moment when I typed that out.....

 

 

Also I got a question for you guys that love QBR, as I've never studied the formula extensively, I heard some of you say that attempts are weighted more than completions. How so? Does having more attempts hurt you? How exactly does that work in? I could google this, but I'm lazy and would rather keep the conversation going...

 

Formula is here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_rating

 

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but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.

 

by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness

 

It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.

 

Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?

 

The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.

 

It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.

 

Please, just stop posting already.

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*thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks*

*thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks*

*thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks**thanks*

*thanks**thanks*

 

great point

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Guest Masters

That's the alternative formula. But even using the alternative way to get there, ATT far out weigh COMP. The COMP is used about the same # of times as TD, INT, and Yards.

 

It's stall all about what you do w/ each passing attempt. That's why the QBR is very indicative of how well a QB peforms over all.

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Guest Masters
Thanks, PGL. And there you go, Lums.

 

We can also look at the all-time passer ratings. 150 QBs qualify with 1,500 attempts.

 

At the top: Young, Manning, Warner, Brady, and Montana. Winners, winners, chicken dinners. Champions.

 

At the bottom: Tripucka, Phipps, Cotton Davidson, Tobin Rote, and Jack Kemp.

 

Losers, one and all. Even in politics.

 

It's a quarterback league... and always has been.

 

DA is working his way onto that "At the bottom:" list.

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Because 2 for 17 (8.5% completion rate) really produced a fvckload of points, didn't it?

 

The more passes you complete, the better chance you have of getting a first down.

 

It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.

 

Please, just stop posting already.

Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.

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Not a bad statistic, but three playoff QBs and the SB winner sat in the bottom quarter of the league last year.

 

2008 Passer rating leaders.

1 Philip Rivers, 105.5 (Won AFC West)

2 Chad Pennington, 97.4 (Won AFC East)

3 Kurt Warner, QB 96.9 (Wild Card Super Bowl)

4 Drew Brees, QB 96.2 (Missed playoffs)

5 Peyton Manning, 95.0 (Wild Card)

6 Aaron Rodgers, 93.4 (Missed Playoffs)

7 Matt Schaub, 92.7 (Missed Playoffs)

8 Tony Romo, 91.4 (Missed Playoffs)

9 Jeff Garcia, 90.2 (Missed Playoffs)

10 Matt Cassel, 89.4 (Missed Playoffs)

11 Matt Ryan, 87.7 (Wild Card)

12 Shaun Hill, 87.5 (Missed Playoffs)

13 Seneca Wallace, 87.0 (Missed Playoffs)

14 Eli Manning, 86.4 (Won NFC East)

15 Donovan McNabb, 86.4 (Wild card)

16 Jay Cutler, 86.0 (Missed Playoffs)

17 Trent Edwards, 85.4 (Missed Playoffs)

18 Jake Delhomme, 84.7 (Missed Playoffs)

19 Jason Campbell, 84.3 (Missed Playoffs)

20 David Garrard, 81.7 (Missed Playoffs)

21 Brett Favre, 81.0 (Missed Playoffs)

22 Joe Flacco, 80.3 (Wild card)

23 Kerry Collins, 80.2 (Won AFC South)

24 Big Gay Ben 80.1 (Won Superbowl)

25 Kyle Orton, 79.6 (missed Playoffs)

26 JaMarcus Russell, 77.1 (Rapelisberger-like)

 

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It doesn't put an abnormally high value on completion percentage. It put value on attempt the most. That is used in all 4 formulas used to calculate QBR. COMP, TD, INT, and Yards are each only used once. Basically it's all about what you did w/ those attempts.

 

wrong.

 

the big problem with the formula is the use of Yards Per Attempt.

 

Yards Per Attempt factors in comp% all by itself.

 

then they mix it in with comp% again.

 

Hence comp% is factored in twice.

 

Yards factored in only once.

 

If they used Yards Per Completion instead of Yards Per Attempt then I'd agree with you. But they don't.

 

 

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Guest Masters
Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.

 

Yeah, but how many of those 3rd downs were 3rd and managable?

 

I'd agree comp% is flawed when viewed in a vaccuum.

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And his team is 3-2.

 

Hey, we could aspire to be 3-2 if our QB was 24th in passer rating. Too bad he'll end up 124th.

 

no they are 4-1

 

(Bengals QB Carson Palmer in case you didn't figure it out)

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Yeah, but how many of those 3rd downs were 3rd and managable?

 

I'd agree comp% is flawed when viewed in a vaccuum.

 

you have to remember that St.clair and whomever was our RG at the time false started a thousand times, and it was always on third down.

 

So you are correct in the notion that BQ didn't have very manageable 3rd downs

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Huh? Brady Quinn completed something above 60% and was completing 9/38 3rd down so yes comp% can be flawed.

 

Quinn was 6 for 30.

 

Those final 3 for 8 were the 2nd half of the Ravens game, when DA was playing.

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Guest Masters
wrong.

 

the big problem with the formula is the use of Yards Per Attempt.

 

Yards Per Attempt factors in comp% all by itself.

 

then they mix it in with comp% again.

 

Hence comp% is factored in twice.

 

Yards factored in only once.

 

If they used Yards Per Completion instead of Yards Per Attempt then I'd agree with you. But they don't.

 

It is you who is wrong chief.

 

First off, YPA has zero to do w/ comp %.

 

Secondly, actually look at the formula.

 

Oh, and YPC would factor in comp%, as opposed to yards per attempt. The formula is all about what you do with your ATT. See the exampe for a guy that goes 10/28 but for 4 TDs.

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It's pretty hard to complete 3 passes in a row and not get at least 10 yards.

 

..................unless you're Brady Quinn..................................

 

[sorry man but you put that one on a TEE]

 

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the interesting thing about sheps QBR example, is how true it stands up for a player like DA,

 

lets say DA has what HE would call a good game

 

240 yds

12 for 24

4 TD's

2 interceptions

 

thats a 90.2 rating, still relatively high

 

The thing is, it also shows us how bad DA is really playing this year

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Guest Masters

Put it this way Lum, if comp % factored in, then DA's QBR would not have increased from a 4.9 to his final 15.1 by throwing an incomplete pass.

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Lum likes yards per completion because it stacks the deck in a favorable way for his purpose.

 

So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.

 

I think its safe to say that any coach will tell you that a high completion rate is a desirable trait in a QB. That might be why its weighting is what it is.

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So a QB going 2/20 for 100 yards would rate pretty well because its a whopping 50 YPC when a reasonable person would lament the 15 incompletions as drive stoppers, etc.

 

keep in mind the comp% is also in that formula as a stand alone stat.

 

So yes using YPC along with comp% would be more reasonable.

 

Using YPA with comp% favors short high percentage completions over longer lower percentage completions even if they produce higher overall offensive effectiveness. That is a flaw in the system.

 

 

 

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Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.

 

How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.

 

Pretend instead that Edwards catches that beautiful pass right in his hands at the end of the game where he got the bail out interference call -- or they credit him with the TD on the ball marked at the one. Sanchez rockets from a "respectable" 87 to well over 100.

 

Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.

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but we also know that a dink n dunk offense artificially inflates QB rating.

 

by placing a much higher value on completion percentage over any other factors (by figuring it in twice in the calcs) it will never be a true measure of offensive effectiveness

 

It is really just a slightly modified measure of completion percentage.

 

We are running a dink and dunk offense lol......and you see how well DA's stats are inflated lol

 

You just bonered yourself there.

 

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The Steelers own the Browns as if they purchased them on Ebay. The Browns are just 6-31 at Pittsburgh since 1970. The Steelers are 9-1 at Cleveland Browns Stadium, or as they like to call it, “Home Away From Home.” The last time the Browns defeated Pittsburgh in Cleveland, Bill Clinton was the president. Ponder that for a second.

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Guest Masters
Not saying that good QB isn't crucial to winning football. I just have issues with the passer rating. It favors completion percentages and QBs who don't have RBs who can finish a drive. TDs and completion percentage can distort a good performance.

 

How about Sanchez on Monday Night? Good game, right? 12-24, 172 yds, 1 td 87.3. Say he tosses a hail mary that gets picked in the end zone in the last second of the half. It's a 69 all of a sudden. Say he hands the ball off to Thomas Jones instead of the 3 yard TD pass to Braylon? It's a 72.6. Say Braylon drops that pass as he's prone to do in the past? It's a 69. Say he drops the difficult 35 yard pass that Sachez threw too. Now he has a 60.

 

Anybody impressed with Campbell's performance in a loss against Carolina? 17-23, 145 yds, 1 td that's a 104.4. Less yards. Same TD, but he completed a higher percentage of passes to get those fewer yards.

 

It doesn't favor completion percentages, if favors attempts and what is done with them. Hence how DA's QBR actually went up by throwing an incomplete pass.

 

I agree that on a game by game basis, when just looking at a box score, it is misleading. But when you look at it over a stretch of time (several games, a season, a career), you will find the successful and good QBs have good QBRs.

 

 

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