Risky Business?

[The Gipper]

Heard this statistic this morning:    NOT A SINGLE QB taken in the first round between  2009 and 2016  are now still with their original team.  These would be any of those first rounder QB that has been in the league for from  5-12 years....basically the prime of a QBs career.    Here is that list:

2009: Stafford, Lions; Mark Sanchez, Jets; Josh Freeman, Buccaneers.

2010: Sam Bradford, Rams; Tim Tebow, Broncos.

2011: Cam Newton, Panthers; Jake Locker, Titans; Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars; Christian Ponder, Vikings.

2012: Andrew Luck, Colts; Robert Griffin III, Washington; Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins; Brandon Weeden, Browns.

2013: EJ Manuel, Bills.

2014: Blake Bortles, Jaguars; Johnny Manziel, Browns; Teddy Twatwater, Vikings.

2015: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers; Marcus Mariota, Titans.

2016: Goff, Rams; Wentz, Eagles; Paxton Lynch, Broncos.

There were three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2017 draft. Two of them — Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson — may be with different teams next year, but it seems unlikely that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be splitting up in the near future.

Note also....you have Ben R.  2004, Aaron Rodgers  2005, Russell Wilson  round 3, Derek Carr round 2,  Prescott Round 4,  Matt Ryan 2008 from other years or from other rounds who are still with their teams, but no first rounders from that entire 8 year period is still in place.

[SdBacker80]

 

Heard this statistic this morning:    NOT A SINGLE QB taken in the first round between  2009 and 2016  are now still with their original team.  These would be any of those first rounder QB that has been in the league for from  5-12 years....basically the prime of a QBs career.    Here is that list:

2009: Stafford, Lions; Mark Sanchez, Jets; Josh Freeman, Buccaneers.

2010: Sam Bradford, Rams; Tim Tebow, Broncos.

2011: Cam Newton, Panthers; Jake Locker, Titans; Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars; Christian Ponder, Vikings.

2012: Andrew Luck, Colts; Robert Griffin III, Washington; Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins; Brandon Weeden, Browns.

2013: EJ Manuel, Bills.

2014: Blake Bortles, Jaguars; Johnny Manziel, Browns; Teddy Twatwater, Vikings.

2015: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers; Marcus Mariota, Titans.

2016: Goff, Rams; Wentz, Eagles; Paxton Lynch, Broncos.

There were three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2017 draft. Two of them — Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson — may be with different teams next year, but it seems unlikely that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be splitting up in the near future.

Note also....you have Ben R.  2004, Aaron Rodgers  2005, Russell Wilson  round 3, Derek Carr round 2,  Prescott Round 4,  Matt Ryan 2008 from other years or from other rounds who are still with their teams, but no first rounders from that entire 8 year period is still in place.

There were a lot of reaches of this list.  Go back to 2011.  Jags and Vikes need QBs badly so Jags come up and take a project in the top half of the first round.  Vikes take a guy that had no business being a first rounder.  So you set the franchise back 2-3 years with continued bad QB play and the team waits during that time of development.  Perhaps even passing on better options the following year.  You  compound the problem.

My feelings 1) you don’t take a chance on a QB in the first round.  The consequences are harsh. The argument there were some positives on each of those guys mentioned above- there were also red flags with each.  2) If the QB doesn’t have support around him yet (line, WRs) he sits.  Next offseason you stockpile talent in support of the QB position. 
 

 

[The Gipper]

14 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

There were a lot of reaches of this list.  Go back to 2011.  Jags and Vikes need QBs badly so Jags come up and take a project in the top half of the first round.  Vikes take a guy that had no business being a first rounder.  So you set the franchise back 2-3 years with continued bad QB play and the team waits during that time of development.  Perhaps even passing on better options the following year.  You  compound the problem.

My feelings 1) you don’t take a chance on a QB in the first round.  The consequences are harsh. The argument there were some positives on each of those guys mentioned above- there were also red flags with each.  2) If the QB doesn’t have support around him yet (line, WRs) he sits.  Next offseason you stockpile talent in support of the QB position. 
 

 

This is exactly why I say that teams like the Jets should not take a QB....because the rest of the team is swiss cheese that having a young QB is superfluous.   It would be the Tim Couch syndrome.....you may have a decent prospect,  but you get him killed with no support, and you either literally break him  (like Couch:  rotator and labrum tears)  or you break his confidence...or both. 

[Bob806]

We all know the years of suffering, looking for a QB all too well. Thank goodness it appears Mayfield will be here awhile. 

Look at KC- since Len Dawson, they went through more QBs than any other team, even with a Joe Montana pit stop. It's just plain hard getting "that guy'" and historically speaking, really how many great QBs are there at any one time (era)? 

This salary cap era also is a factor. The "win now" thing is real when GMs & coaches basically only get 3 or 4 years to prove themselves to ownership. 

 

[SdBacker80]

 

This is exactly why I say that teams like the Jets should not take a QB....because the rest of the team is swiss cheese that having a young QB is superfluous.   It would be the Tim Couch syndrome.....you may have a decent prospect,  but you get him killed with no support, and you either literally break him  (like Couch:  rotator and labrum tears)  or you break his confidence...or both. 

This covers my second point.  If you find the QB and you take him but you don’t have support around him - they sit Year 1 (Mahomes he started end of Year 1).  I’m not saying pass up the generational talent QB.  You sign a McCown type to play competently in the interim.  
 

The argument years ago- “they are making too much money to sit” is that solution when you are paying a broken down QB in years 2,3 and 4? 
 

The Browns back in 1999 had Pro Bowl players that they could have taken as a bridge guys like Wil Wilford and Daryl Johnston- I think they could have picked up a blitzer coming after Couch.

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said:

This covers my second point.  If you find the QB and you take him but you don’t have support around him - they sit Year 1 (Mahomes he started end of Year 1).  I’m not saying pass up the generational talent QB.  You sign a McCown type to play competently in the interim.  
 

The argument years ago- “they are making too much money to sit” is that solution when you are paying a broken down QB in years 2,3 and 4? 
 

The Browns back in 1999 had Pro Bowl players that they could have taken as a bridge guys like Wil Wilford and Daryl Johnston- I think they could have picked up a blitzer coming after Couch.

Well...then,  another subject is  how "risky" is it to take that blitzer/edge rusher.  Possibly as much of a percentage of them bust as do QBs.  I mean, how many did the Browns  go for that didn't work out:   Courtney Brown,  Kam Wimbly,  Mingo,  not to mention DTs like   Warren, Shelton, Taylor.

In this century the Browns are like  1 for 5 on QBs,  and  1 for 7 on  DL.   (Baker and Garrett being the 1s)  again, just talking first rounders. 

[The Gipper]

Speaking of "Risky Business",  I can't say those words without thinking of Rebecca Demornay in that movie:

[SdBacker80]

4 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Well...then,  another subject is  how "risky" is it to take that blitzer/edge rusher.  Possibly as much of a percentage of them bust as do QBs.  I mean, how many did the Browns  go for that didn't work out:   Courtney Brown,  Kam Wimbly,  Mingo,  not to mention DTs like   Warren, Shelton, Taylor.

In this century the Browns are like  1 for 5 on QBs,  and  1 for 7 on  DL.   (Baker and Garrett being the 1s)  again, just talking first rounders. 

Well Brown was hurt and Kam had a long career. 
 

Yeah the Browns have stunk at talent assessment:

Danny Shelton was never a 1st round talent.

I got nothing for Mingo Warren or Taylor.

[mjp28]

There has to be some lessons to be learned from the last 10 or 20 years in those QB Classes at least some new ways of looking at the "most important piece on the chessboard".

You can not win a superbowl without a franchise quarterback.  Still true.  But how do you go about getting and paying for a franchise quarterback especially if they are the #1 pick in the draft ?

Do you need the #1 pick in the draft as your future franchise quarterback ?  Maybe.  

Are the #1 picks in the draft (often quarterbacks) overpaid especially since they can now retire without taking a snap  -or-. is it just up to the market to decide ?  ?????

Are you looking forward to the upcoming NFL Draft in Cleveland, Ohio ?   Hell yeah but let's hope that something freaking strange doesn't happen before then.  

 

 

 

[The Gipper]

13 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Well Brown was hurt and Kam had a long career. 

Kam...not for us, and not that productive. Pretty mediocre. 
 

Yeah the Browns have stunk at talent assessment:

Danny Shelton was never a 1st round talent.

Everyone thought he was.  Me too.  But....alas, no. 

I got nothing for Mingo Warren or Taylor.

By that do you mean you have no comment on them? Or that you basically agree they were not all that. 

 

[The Gipper]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Speaking of "Risky Business",  I can't say those words without thinking of Rebecca Demornay in that movie:

Rebecca....too hot to handle? 

[TexasAg1969]

On 3/5/2021 at 6:03 PM, The Gipper said:

Rebecca....too hot to handle? 

Are you ready for me, "Ralph"?                   Great line with even greater scene.😜

[Zombo]

On 3/5/2021 at 10:52 AM, The Gipper said:

Heard this statistic this morning:    NOT A SINGLE QB taken in the first round between  2009 and 2016  are now still with their original team.  These would be any of those first rounder QB that has been in the league for from  5-12 years....basically the prime of a QBs career.    Here is that list:

2009: Stafford, Lions; Mark Sanchez, Jets; Josh Freeman, Buccaneers.

2010: Sam Bradford, Rams; Tim Tebow, Broncos.

2011: Cam Newton, Panthers; Jake Locker, Titans; Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars; Christian Ponder, Vikings.

2012: Andrew Luck, Colts; Robert Griffin III, Washington; Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins; Brandon Weeden, Browns.

2013: EJ Manuel, Bills.

2014: Blake Bortles, Jaguars; Johnny Manziel, Browns; Teddy Twatwater, Vikings.

2015: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers; Marcus Mariota, Titans.

2016: Goff, Rams; Wentz, Eagles; Paxton Lynch, Broncos.

There were three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2017 draft. Two of them — Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson — may be with different teams next year, but it seems unlikely that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be splitting up in the near future.

Note also....you have Ben R.  2004, Aaron Rodgers  2005, Russell Wilson  round 3, Derek Carr round 2,  Prescott Round 4,  Matt Ryan 2008 from other years or from other rounds who are still with their teams, but no first rounders from that entire 8 year period is still in place.

Of course "not on the same team" does not mean they weren't great picks. Stafford, Newton and Luck were great picks.

Zombo