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The Gipper

Here is the hold up on setting salary cap

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I had been wondering and asking why the salary cap has not yet been set, give that the FA period is  only a bit over a month away.   Well, here is the answer, and it makes sense:

They want to nail down the TV broadcast  contracts:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/nfl-wants-to-finalize-new-tv-deals-before-setting-2021-salary-cap-in-march.html

The NFL is looking to finalize frameworks of new TV rights agreements in the next few weeks and wants to do so before setting the 2021 salary cap figure in March, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

 

The people asked not to be identified as they aren’t allowed to speak publicly about league affairs.

Network partners Fox, ViacomCBS, NBC and Disney’s ESPN pay the league roughly $6 billion per year, with AT&T-owned DirecTV adding another $1.5 billion for the Sunday Ticket package. It’s been widely rumored the next agreement could reach $100 billion via a 10-year deal. Other options include a seven-year deal at $14 billion per year or an eight-year deal at $12 billion per year.

Working in the NFL’s favor is a new 10-year labor agreement reached last year with the NFL Players Association (NFLPA), more postseason contests and a 17-game regular-season schedule, which the league is planning to implement next season. Hence, with the extra games added, the NFL wants its fee.

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Interesting -- New TV agreements would keep the cap higher which would keep salaries higher.  

Don't look at anyone's list of "cap space" -- every site has a different calculation. 

The starting point for any analysis of what to do salary-cap-wise absolutely has to be the total already committed for the 2021 league season.. aka Total Liabilities

Before signing any free agents -even "our own"- our total already committed for 2021 is 196,693,447

So when you're thinking about how close we are to the cap.. look at the cap when it's agreed upon, then look at our total liabilities for 2021 as of that date.

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And I'm sure all the network partners are aware and letting the NFL know that NFL viewership and attendance has been in decline especially since all this virtue signaling. I'm sure they're not just going to take whatever the NFL says is the price.

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17 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Salary cap minimum set to 180M [up from 175] - at the end, current release about highest possible cap is 185.

"The final 2021 cap figure could take some time to finalize, as the NFL continues to negotiate new contracts with its TV network partners"

OK,  a practical question:   cap set at a minimum of  180m, could go up to  185 m.    What could the extra  5 million mean to a team like the Browns?   Can we add a decent defensive starter....or would it just be chum....a depth player?    Could it make a difference in say....signing Watt? or the like? 

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First thing when considering questions about cap: Our current total 2021 liabilities are 196M for the 2021 season.  That's already 11M above the max.  So whatever our current cap space "truly" is -- subtract 11M from that.

This is before signing draft picks or any of "our" current FA.

This is also before considering the long-term setup we/Berea are looking for.. because some guys [maybe some who are currently FA's] should be first in line for resigning / extending / etc.. and so we could get more space [for example] by extending players already on the roster or moving some monies to a signing bonus rather than a roster bonus.. etc etc.  As an example, RG is ungodly cheap for 2021 but is FA after that.  I'd try to resign him, he seems nice.

The reason I don't post on any of these "Hey let's sign these 4 FA's" is because... unless you have a crystal ball and know what the 2022 [and 2023] cap is going to be, we're already at the cap. Today, right now - before ANY rookies or even our own FA's are considered.  Sure, some of that one-year is going to be used on our rookies.. and some more will likely go to Mitch and Higgy [2-3/yr for each] because those are decent-not-great NFL #3/#4 at their roster spots.  And a big sum of our current one-year cap will go to bringing our "cap charge" for 2021 down to whatever the cap comes in at.

Current 196 cap 185. 196 + X [FA] + Y [rookies] = 196 + X + Y total liabilities.  Say X=4 and Y=5.  So 196+4+5 = 205.  Thus.. even if we only sign 4M [just Mitch and Hig both at 2/yr] worth of "FA", we're already committing 20M of one-year cap space to get there.  That doesn't leave much space for signing any FA, let alone a JJwatt for example.

I really don't agree with consciously putting ourselves in cap hell [cutting multiple players because of their cap#] in 2,3 years down the road if our actual objective is to set the team up for long-term winning. And if Berry has been calmly prepping for this offseason and the moves he'll have to make -- which I bet he has -- we don't have to get there.

But simply "believing" we "can" sign anyone because you emotionally want that to be true...... isn't analysis, that's a therapy session.

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1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

First thing when considering questions about cap: Our current total 2021 liabilities are 196M for the 2021 season.  That's already 11M above the max.  So whatever our current cap space "truly" is -- subtract 11M from that.

This is before signing draft picks or any of "our" current FA.

This is also before considering the long-term setup we/Berea are looking for.. because some guys [maybe some who are currently FA's] should be first in line for resigning / extending / etc.. and so we could get more space [for example] by extending players already on the roster or moving some monies to a signing bonus rather than a roster bonus.. etc etc.  As an example, RG is ungodly cheap for 2021 but is FA after that.  I'd try to resign him, he seems nice.

The reason I don't post on any of these "Hey let's sign these 4 FA's" is because... unless you have a crystal ball and know what the 2022 [and 2023] cap is going to be, we're already at the cap. Today, right now - before ANY rookies or even our own FA's are considered.  Sure, some of that one-year is going to be used on our rookies.. and some more will likely go to Mitch and Higgy [2-3/yr for each] because those are decent-not-great NFL #3/#4 at their roster spots.  And a big sum of our current one-year cap will go to bringing our "cap charge" for 2021 down to whatever the cap comes in at.

Current 196 cap 185. 196 + X [FA] + Y [rookies] = 196 + X + Y total liabilities.  Say X=4 and Y=5.  So 196+4+5 = 205.  Thus.. even if we only sign 4M [just Mitch and Hig both at 2/yr] worth of "FA", we're already committing 20M of one-year cap space to get there.  That doesn't leave much space for signing any FA, let alone a JJwatt for example.

I really don't agree with consciously putting ourselves in cap hell [cutting multiple players because of their cap#] in 2,3 years down the road if our actual objective is to set the team up for long-term winning. And if Berry has been calmly prepping for this offseason and the moves he'll have to make -- which I bet he has -- we don't have to get there.

But simply "believing" we "can" sign anyone because you emotionally want that to be true...... isn't analysis, that's a therapy session.

If all that is true, then why do I keep hearing the talking heads (e.g. just today, Field Yates)   keep saying we have plenty of cap space to sign someone like JJ Watt...or others?   Are they just misinformed?  Are they liars? 

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The thing is, even if the new TV contract lifts cap, it kinda falls into the category of a rising tide lifts all boats.. Not just the boat you root for ;)

 

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11 hours ago, Axe said:
 

The thing is, even if the new TV contract lifts cap, it kinda falls into the category of a rising tide lifts all boats.. Not just the boat you root for ;)

 

Image result for Japanese tsunami gif

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On 2/18/2021 at 4:27 PM, The Gipper said:

If all that is true, then why do I keep hearing the talking heads (e.g. just today, Field Yates)   keep saying we have plenty of cap space to sign someone like JJ Watt...or others?   Are they just misinformed?  Are they liars? 

You have asked this question many times. Pretty much every time unsympathetic tells you not to believe the people who say we have tons of money.  Those people are either intentionally spreading lies or are simply misinformed. It's hard to tell their intent.  The one thing that is true is that they are wrong

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1 hour ago, bjh2130 said:

You have asked this question many times. Pretty much every time unsympathetic tells you not to believe the people who say we have tons of money.  Those people are either intentionally spreading lies or are simply misinformed. It's hard to tell their intent.  The one thing that is true is that they are wrong

Then why do we have an entire  6,7,8 page  thread about the possibility of JJ Watt coming to the Browns?   Shut it down if that is the case. 

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Of course it's a possibility -- but the weight of that monstrosity would force Berea to do [restructure/cut/trade for picks] or not do [resign our own FA] certain things because the salary cap has actual limits on our actions. 

In news articles about Browns cap, the "available" figure will use the 2020 cap number [unrealistic for 2021] as the baseline and will not mention the 2021 salary liabilities.  Huzzah! We have 31M free cap!  They don't mention that the use of 31M cherry-picks assumptions to appear as high as possible. [2020 cap is higher than 2021, many players on the roster in 2021 had lower salaries in 2020 compared to 2021]

If the 2021 cap comes in 11M under 2020's [latest expectations] then 20M "free money" of the one-year variety {[OverTheCap's current stated cap space..]} isn't exactly spectacular:  That's a 10M deal for 2 years.. or a 6.7M deal for 3 years.  And the 20+11, of course, is where the 31 comes from.

All free agents and rookies have to be signed with this money.. somehow.  But these machinations are Berry's job.

 

As to that thread? Let the kids play.

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Then why do we have an entire  6,7,8 page  thread about the possibility of JJ Watt coming to the Browns?   Shut it down if that is the case. 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

This was cited by The PD a few days ago.

And This doesn’t account for the 30M we have in carryover cap that CAN be used as well.

And This doesn’t account for moves we could make releasing or trading guys. Some likely candidates brought up in this 6,7,8 page thread.

That’s why people/kids are talking.  It deserves chatter because many things can happen in the next two months. 

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15 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

And This doesn’t account for the 30M we have in carryover cap that CAN be used as well

Incorrect - the only space we have is one-year carryover.  The entirety of what's available is the 20 that's listed.

 

It's 31.. if you assume the 2021 salary cap is the same as the 2020 salary cap.

It's 20.. if you assume the 2021 salary cap is the current expected 2021 max of 185, as reported this week.

The way you know one-year is all we have is by... looking at Browns 2021 salary liabilities and seeing that before rookies or FA are signed, the total salaries we're paying out for the season is exactly at last year's cap.  We'd have 30M "long term salary cap" [or whatever phrase you want to use] if and only if our 2021 salary liabilities were 30M under the 2021 salary cap.

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6 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

Incorrect - the only space we have is one-year carryover.

Before we account for releases, restructuring, or trades
How much space do we have including the carry over number? 

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includes rollover... 

CLEVELAND BROWNS CAP TOTALS

 

This is from spotrac and based on a total cap number of 185M ^^^ (reported will be less)

over the cap numbers are based on a cap number of 180.5M*   https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

Neither include adding CB Robert Jackson back on roster..

 

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5 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Then why do we have an entire  6,7,8 page  thread about the possibility of JJ Watt coming to the Browns?   Shut it down if that is the case. 

There is a possibility of jj watt coming to the browns if we are going all in and believe jj watt is the thing that brings us a super bowl. It would severely screw us over financially and make it very hard to resign chubb and baker and teller and others like ward if interested. Just like there is a possibility of me winning the lottery if I dump my life savings into lottery tickets but it would be a bad financial decision and put me in a rough spot where I have to start over if i don't win it.

Side note I'm not equating the chance of the browns winning the super bowl to me winning the lottery and obviously the browns could do some things to free up the space to sign watt via restructures or trades or cuts.

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7 hours ago, bjh2130 said:

There is a possibility of jj watt coming to the browns if we are going all in and believe jj watt is the thing that brings us a super bowl. It would severely screw us over financially and make it very hard to resign chubb and baker and teller and others like ward if interested. Just like there is a possibility of me winning the lottery if I dump my life savings into lottery tickets but it would be a bad financial decision and put me in a rough spot where I have to start over if i don't win it.

Side note I'm not equating the chance of the browns winning the super bowl to me winning the lottery and obviously the browns could do some things to free up the space to sign watt via restructures or trades or cuts.

It is likely that We don’t have to commit to JJ long term.  

That’s part of the appeal.

 

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10 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

It is likely that We don’t have to commit to JJ long term.  

That’s part of the appeal.

 

But it's not a long term commitment thing. We basically would have to use rollover cap for his entire 1 year contract which means we don't have that extra money to sign all our young guys who are up for extensions

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Keep the following in mind when you look at Spotrac and see that their 2021 total is less than OverTheCap.

1) Spotrac does not include Blake Hance or Michael Dunn.

2) Spotrac has Chubb nearly 2M cheaper than what's listed on OTC.

3) OTC has Richardson 500k cheaper than what's on Spotrac.

4) OTC has UDFAs Dorbeck 5k cheaper and Green 120k cheaper.

5) For those of you counting, OTC shows the following more expensive next year than Spotrac: Garrett 120, MJ stewart 1, Harrison Bryant 1. Spotrac has Elliot and Phillips $1 more expensive than OTC.

 

Excel's Vlookup.. never not useful.

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1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

Keep the following in mind when you look at Spotrac and see that their total is less than OverTheCap.

1) Spotrac does not include Blake Hance or Michael Dunn.

Saw that^^  yesterday too...also OTC is missing JoJo Natson for a 1M..

Doubt Keenum has any trade value? but his contract has 1 million dollar esculators the longer he stays..still a fair price for a back-up QB

it would help if OBJ & or Richardson would reconstruct? Still don't see Njoku going anywhere, using 3 TE sets.. Hubbard & Clayborn could save us 3M each..Keeping & paying 1 FB ? ok.. but paying for 2 seems thick?

CB Terrance Mitchell i think we can get done at 5M/yr.. Higgins & Ogun? i don't see Berry matching any deal but his set number.. and it may start with a 3 or 4?  

many solid cap cuts will be coming.. A 2nd NFL draft :ph34r: I saw a Rams writer, saying the league has team roster max limits.. The Rams may test the Minimum roster limits..       

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8 hours ago, gumby73 said:

also OTC is missing JoJo Natson for a 1M

Natson is UFA at present and isn't on Browns roster for 2021.. he's not in Spotrac either.

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OTC's rookie salary estimates based on their draft slot.

Browns expectation is 7.9M.  Remember that for each pick there's a 50% chance Browns salary would come in higher than listed.. that's the fun with using averages.

So if you plug in 8M as Browns figure for 2021.... that comes out of our one-year cap.. so our one-year cap space is down from 21 to only 13M

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On 2/23/2021 at 9:06 AM, Unsympathetic said:

OTC's rookie salary estimates based on their draft slot.

Browns expectation is 7.9M.  Remember that for each pick there's a 50% chance Browns salary would come in higher than listed.. that's the fun with using averages.

So if you plug in 8M as Browns figure for 2021.... that comes out of our one-year cap.. so our one-year cap space is down from 21 to only 13M

I don't see any mention on the linked page of the salary figures being "averages". Where did this come from?

 

At least we don't have any compensatory picks to add to our total beyond the 9 picks we own which add up to the $7.845mm total. :)

 

 

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Speaking of weeds to dive into..

I was saying average to reflect the potential differences from the "slotted" value in rookie negotiations over signing bonus schedule and the potential for offsets.

An offset clause allows a team to reduce the guaranteed money owed to a player when he is released by the amount of his new deal with another team.

So our listed is 7.845; i've only been saying 8 because it's easier and allows a bit of wiggle room.

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