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mjp28

Cleveland +10 on 1/16 and the other division playoff games.....one more step.

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Cleveland +10 on 1/16 and the other division playoff games ......one more step.

For all of the information see.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/first-half/

 

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Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

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2 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

Yes, it should be the other way around.   Baltimore should be + 10 and Cleveland should be +2. 

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3 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

Vegas is usually closer than most think. See how far the line moves and that will give you an idea what the pro bettors are doing. I think the lines are right about where they should be. They haven't moved much from the opening lines.

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12 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Is Cleveland +10 an easy line ?  

What about Baltimore +2 at Buffalo, should that be the other way around ?

With KC's penchant for close games it looks like it to me.

Home-field is usually worth about -3 for the home team... even with reduced crowd due to Covid that held. So Vegas is discounting BUF's advantage by 33%. ;) ... and BUF ain't no creampuff.

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moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

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24 minutes ago, ATOM said:

moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

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Just now, Tour2ma said:

Is that straight to win, i.e., no points?

yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

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33 minutes ago, ATOM said:

moneyline my favorite bet has us at +335

From Vegas insiders which shows various sports books, DraftKings is +410 just FYI.   https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money

 

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40 minutes ago, ATOM said:

whoa thats better 

My advice with your first game win? 

 

  • Haha 1

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So what have we learned here today, kids?

It pays to shop for odds....

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9 hours ago, ATOM said:

yep and i am taking that bet same as i did vs ptg and i think that paid +225

If you got money to gamble that is fine...but obviously your betting with you heart ,,if I was gambling strictly to make money I would take the Ravens  +110 before I would take the Browns

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Okay research shows the following. 

Baltimore is #1 in rushing yards per game @191.9 per

Buff ranks 20th @ 107.7

 

Rushing defensive 

Baltimore ranks 8th @ 108.8

Buff gives up a boat load ranking 17th @ 119.6 

 

 

2 team M/L parlay 

Rats win outright 

Brown's win outright 

9.46/1

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2 hours ago, Footbalfan1962 said:

If you got money to gamble that is fine...but obviously your betting with you heart ,,if I was gambling strictly to make money I would take the Ravens  +110 before I would take the Browns

Which is why I posted "Take the Money and Run". It's one thing to get real lucky with a long shot. It's another to give it all back on another.😱

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Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

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18 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

Now that would be an excellent bet. LV has that off by at least 10 or more IMO. We shall see.

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9 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Now that would be an excellent bet. LV has that off by at least 10 or more IMO. We shall see.

Weather looks good enough that it will not prevent a scorefest.

 

General comment... usually the quality/competitiveness of the 2nd weekend of playoffs tends to disappoint... especially after a great opening weekend. I don't think that will be the case this weekend. The matchups looks awesome.

  • Rams D vs GB's O...
  • BLT - BUF slugfest..
  • Bradt vs Brees...
  • and of course us vs the defending Champs.... Ground Stef vs. Air Andy.

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1 hour ago, gumby73 said:

Games like this, I keep looking at that 56 over the total score... I may slide a few bones on over that total.. Keep shocking the world Browns !

Screams trap IMO.  It does seem very enticing though.  Our line last game screamed of a trap too.  

We can and we should ball control it and run more than pass.  
 

Maybe just Maybe Woods has a few tricks.  He was part of a defensive gameplan that held Mahomes/Reed to 10 points in 3 quarters on Super Sunday.  I know different personnel sorta kinda.  
 

Maybe you see some KC rust too- these guys havent played meaningful game since their game with the Saints.

 

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Checking out stat differentials...

- Chiefs Oline is still trash in run blocking

- Defense gives up a ton on the ground 

It's possible they find the stones to limit the rushing game in the playoffs like last year.   On the other hand, maybe they just get bullied like most of the season?  Either way I'm going to make them prove it by committing the bodies in the box to slow down my Oline and monster RB Duo.

On Defense? I'm comfortable playing lighter numbers up front and seeing if they're capable and/or willing to establish a running game against my 6&7.   Chiefs LOVE splash plays, we'll see how methodical they're willing to be drive after drive if the Browns deny the home-run shots.

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6 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Checking out stat differentials...

- Chiefs Oline is still trash in run blocking

- Defense gives up a ton on the ground 

It's possible they find the stones to limit the rushing game in the playoffs like last year.   On the other hand, maybe they just get bullied like most of the season?  Either way I'm going to make them prove it by committing the bodies in the box to slow down my Oline and monster RB Duo.

On Defense? I'm comfortable playing lighter numbers up front and seeing if they're capable and/or willing to establish a running game against my 6&7.   Chiefs LOVE splash plays, we'll see how methodical they're willing to be drive after drive if the Browns deny the home-run shots.

I actually worry about thinking too hard about stopping the WRs and Mahomes that the ground game gets going and I worry even more about Hill and Hardiman on runs.


Their splash plays are usually “broken” Plays.  Mahomes evading pressure running around and the WRs doing a great job flowing to him. Then you have the occasional across his body throw 30-40 yards downfield that defies Good QB play. 

 Not a bad matchup in my opinion.

I watched the game where the Raiders took them down in Arrowhead with the same type of gameplan we will employ on offense.

I am really curious how the Falcons held them in check too. 

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7 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

Maybe you see some KC rust too- these guys havent played meaningful game since their game with the Saints.

Crossed my mind as well, but I think that Offense is rustproof... laid 34 on the Texans Week 1 and 35 on the Raiders coming out of their Bye.

Now the D could be a different story... Raiders hung 31 on them... but then so did the Panthers in the game before KC's Bye.

 

Bottom line I see is that KC won a lot of close games by narrowly outscoring their opponent. In all 8 of their 14 wins were by 6 or fewer points.

And 7 of those 8 occurrences were in the 2nd half of the season. The 8th game was their season ending, "resting their starters" loss to LAC.

They have not blown away an opponent since Week 8 when they played the Jets.

 

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3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Crossed my mind as well, but I think that Offense is rustproof... laid 34 on the Texans Week 1 and 35 on the Raiders coming out of their Bye.

Now the D could be a different story... Raiders hung 31 on them... but then so did the Panthers in the game before KC's Bye.

 

Bottom line I see is that KC won a lot of close games by narrowly outscoring their opponent. In all 8 of their 14 wins were by 6 or fewer points.

And 7 of those 8 occurrences were in the 2nd half of the season. The 8th game was their season ending, "resting their starters" loss to LAC.

They have not blown away an opponent since Week 8 when they played the Jets.

 

Andy Reid with time to gameplan is usually successful. 

Raiders hung 40 on them earlier too.  I remember watching that game and thinking Chiefs may not have it this year- maybe even a Super Bowl Hangover.  On offense We do a lot of things well that the Raiders did well that game 

The Falcons game last month I’d like to see that one too. Mahomes didn’t play that well and the offense overall was just off- what did the Falcons do?  Or Was it just a lousy day for the Chiefs O?

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12 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

Andy Reid with time to gameplan is usually successful. 

Raiders hung 40 on them earlier too.  I remember watching that game and thinking Chiefs may not have it this year- maybe even a Super Bowl Hangover.  On offense We do a lot of things well that the Raiders did well that game 

The Falcons game last month I’d like to see that one too. Mahomes didn’t play that well and the offense overall was just off- what did the Falcons do?  Or Was it just a lousy day for the Chiefs O?

No idea on ATL's approach other than the tale the boxscore tells... Mahomes threw two picks...KC went 5/13 on 3rd down... ATL attacked KC's D thru the air. I suspect KC may have relaxed some with the 1st round Bye locked up? But TBH I don't know that circumstance for sure. Also may have taken ATL lightly.

I remember the LVR game and agreed with your take at the time, but then they ran off 10 wins in a row. That said we know they are not invincible... we know how we can pull off this upset.

And then there's Reed... best offensive mind in the game

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Yahoo lines have been steady this week. Slight over adjustment for BLT @ BUF was reversed, but other than that...

image.png.9c0a1aaaff24c3a282e9928b8b429af7.png

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3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Yahoo lines have been steady this week. Slight over adjustment for BLT @ BUF was reversed, but other than that...

image.png.9c0a1aaaff24c3a282e9928b8b429af7.png

How about over/under total? That seemed to me to be the best bet as an over.

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Insert is from Pro Pick'em... ain't no O/U there.

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And Tuesday January 14 early afternoon lnes from Lost Wages, Nevada not 🚫 much change and the BROWNS O/U not to be confused 🤔 with the U/O has leveled out at 57

From our friends at Vegas insider including the 1st half, money lines, mjp's fast cash (j/k) and more.....    https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas 

Screenshot_2021-01-14_144912.jpg

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Translation... Lots of ways to donate money.

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2020 Sports Betting Report

Last update: January 12, 2021

State.               Total Revenue.............Total  net profit.......Hold%.....Taxes  

Jurisdiction Handle Revenue Hold Taxes/Jurisdiction Revenue
Total $35,440,373,442 $2,511,672,715 7.1% $350,438,677
Arkansas $37,742,376 $4,587,909 12.2% $619,955
Colorado $901,203,146 $58,689,339 6.5% $2,433,182
Delaware $338,083,000 $52,298,447 15.5% $35,190,438
Illinois $941,403,906 $60,335,613 6.4% $9,749,255
Indiana $2,205,269,251 $180,036,041 8.2% $17,103,425
Iowa $787,465,413 $60,912,944 7.7% $4,162,704
Michigan $130,763,498 $18,276,858 14.0% $1,535,256
Mississippi $834,790,087 $95,606,026 11.5% $11,472,723
Montana $ - $ - -- $ -
Nevada $12,092,470,828 $745,195,000 6.16% $50,300,663
New Hampshire $241,304,917 $19,144,719 7.9% $8,882,812
New Jersey $10,850,873,475 $725,483,208 6.7% $93,813,623
New Mexico $ - $ - -- $ -
New York $ - $16,293,391 -- $1,629,339
Oregon $263,518,470 $22,996,708 8.7% $ -
Pennsylvania $4,540,029,200 $338,806,887 7.5% $84,999,203
Rhode Island $458,727,812 $40,371,991 8.8% $20,589,715
Tennessee $131,444,523 $13,244,908 10.1% $2,363,918
Washington DC $68,109,480 $11,646,764 17.1% $817,870
West Virginia $617,174,060 $47,745,962 7.7% $4,774,596

New Jersey sports betting

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