The "It's-later-than-you-think" 2021 Mock Draft Thread

[tiamat63]

The nice thing about me, Gip...   I don't even charge for the premium opinions I provide.  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-jaguars-locked-in-on-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-slips-steelers-get-rb/?fbclid=IwAR3k8H8sGlN3wje6Is4s9_Uno7yFpReUG5Ohfe6ggFcXLHqF009qLvbDyPU

 

 

[The Gipper]

4 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

The nice thing about me, Gip...   I don't even charge for the premium opinions I provide.  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-jaguars-locked-in-on-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-slips-steelers-get-rb/?fbclid=IwAR3k8H8sGlN3wje6Is4s9_Uno7yFpReUG5Ohfe6ggFcXLHqF009qLvbDyPU

 

 

And I won't charge you for my earlier opinion that.....despite  all of the mocks  post-Northwestern that still had him in the Top 5,  I said that he WOULD slip down to like 9-10.....because...just as you see here,  other than  Jags who will take Trevor,  none of the other teams  before 9-10 are really in the market for a QB.  

BUT....I may charge you for my opinion that Zack Wilson of BYU may be taken over Fields....not because Fields would be devalued, but because, I think, Wilson's draft prospect evaluations may skyrocket.    

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

The nice thing about me, Gip...   I don't even charge for the premium opinions I provide.  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-jaguars-locked-in-on-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-slips-steelers-get-rb/?fbclid=IwAR3k8H8sGlN3wje6Is4s9_Uno7yFpReUG5Ohfe6ggFcXLHqF009qLvbDyPU

I see no reason for the Broncos to take a questionable QB when they already have a good one in Lock. Waste of a pick when they need more help in the OL. 

[tiamat63]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

 when they already have a good one in Lock. 

You and John Elway might be the only one's to think that.

[The Gipper]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

I see no reason for the Broncos to take a questionable QB when they already have a good one in Lock. Waste of a pick when they need more help in the OL. 

Well......I think few would agree with you that the prospects for Lock are better than those for Fields. 

Do the "experts on here agree with that?

[The Gipper]

Just now, tiamat63 said:

You and John Elway might be the only one's to think that.

So there is the answer.    And I am not sure about Elway.

[TexasAg1969]

Pu

3 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

You and John Elway might be the only one's to think that.

Maybe John knows the real problem is in the OL.

[tiamat63]

31 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Pu

Maybe John knows the real problem is in the OL.

Well I'm sure Denver fans hope Elway is better at identifying OL talent than he is QB talent.

 

Because he's taken 3 top 50 picks on a QB in the last 7 years.

[TexasAg1969]

7 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Well I'm sure Denver fans hope Elway is better at identifying OL talent than he is QB talent.

 

Because he's taken 3 top 50 picks on a QB in the last 7 years.

And taking Fields would be exactly the same IMO. Time to do exactly what the Browns did. Fix that OL immediately and use the #1 pick on a good one like we did. When you put a decent QB behind it who isn't running for his life every other play, then maybe you can see what he really looks like. Lock has shown me enough to believe he will be good behind an OL that gives him time to really go through progressions.

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

And taking Fields would be exactly the same IMO. Time to do exactly what the Browns did. Fix that OL immediately and use the #1 pick on a good one like we did. When you put a decent QB behind it who isn't running for his life every other play, then maybe you can see what he really looks like. Lock has shown me enough to believe he will be good behind an OL that gives him time to really go through progressions.

I don't think Lock is viewed with the same potential as Baker Mayfield was when we all knew that the Browns were in desperate  need of a LT when we drafted Wills.   Is he? 

[SdBacker80]

Call me an OSU homer..Fields may play well or put out a few more bad clips this Friday.  I think he’s actually going to play a little more relaxed this Friday.  

But I strongly believe he will put on a show during his workouts with his arm, his legs and his mind and he will be a top prospect this draft. 
 

There have been enough flashes of potential in the past season and a half. 

[Tour2ma]

17 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

You and John Elway might be the only one's to think that.

Nah... I, too, think Lock has a chance of making it. He's certainly the best Elway pick to date.

Of course given his other picks... Lynch and the Brockmeister... that ain't saying much.

 

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Nah... I, too, think Lock has a chance of making it. He's certainly the best Elway pick to date.

Of course given his other picks... Lynch and the Brockmeister... that ain't saying much.

 

The question at hand is do you think that the Broncos should take Justin Fields if he is available when they draft? Or stick with Lock? 

[tiamat63]

3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Nah... I, too, think Lock has a chance of making it. He's certainly the best Elway pick to date.

Of course given his other picks... Lynch and the Brockmeister... that ain't saying much.

 

Bingo.

While it's a small sample size, some of the Denver games I've watched this year...  Lock has made some absolutely unforgivable throws.  High school level shit.

9 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

And taking Fields would be exactly the same IMO. Time to do exactly what the Browns did. Fix that OL immediately and use the #1 pick on a good one like we did. When you put a decent QB behind it who isn't running for his life every other play, then maybe you can see what he really looks like. Lock has shown me enough to believe he will be good behind an OL that gives him time to really go through progressions.

As for their Oline? They have one of the rising young LT"s in the NFL, a decent pair of guard play (Glasglow is pretty good) and then Demar Dotson, who I don't know much about but PFF has graded him as "starting" level for the season.  PFF and I have our spats but I don't recall Dotson being rolled when I watched them.      What I do remember is their center be straight trash. And......   Yep,  PFF seems to hate him.  So at least individual grades seem about eye to eye today.     Then again, a terrible center can make or break a line.  So I'm not willing to discount what you're saying.  Only to point out that if your QB play is elevated by the players around him and not vice versa, then is it really your long-term QB? 

5 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

Call me an OSU homer..Fields may play well or put out a few more bad clips this Friday.  I think he’s actually going to play a little more relaxed this Friday.  

But I strongly believe he will put on a show during his workouts with his arm, his legs and his mind and he will be a top prospect this draft. 
 

There have been enough flashes of potential in the past season and a half. 

If Fields flops v Clemson or puts some shakes tape, he would do best to come back for another year IMHO.   Make your run at the Heisman and Natty fresh with all the chemistry and development that we haven't seen since Troy to Teddy and Gonzo.   I can't even begin to stress how rare it is for me to say that as well.  A potential 1st round pick?  The last time I said a Buckeye should stay was.....Thaddeus Gipson? Maybe?  But he wasn't being hyped as a 1st rounder either.  So I have to dig deep and say it was a two-fer with Ashton Youboty and Donte' Whitner.     The 2006 defense with 2 extra capable DB's instead of trotting out Jamario O'Neal and Yao Smith =(     Might not have shit the bed against *ichigan and UF that year.

If Fields struggles and gets drafted on the strength of a scripted workout..?  Then congrats, some GM is making the same mistake that has been done hundreds of times before him. 

edit: Especially in what will most likely be a very crowded QB class.

[Tour2ma]

3 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

As for their Oline? They have one of the rising young LT"s in the NFL, a decent pair of guard play (Glasglow is pretty good) and then Demar Dotson, who I don't know much about but PFF has graded him as "starting" level for the season.  PFF and I have our spats but I don't recall Dotson being rolled when I watched them.      What I do remember is their center be straight trash. And......   Yep,  PFF seems to hate him.  So at least individual grades seem about eye to eye today.     Then again, a terrible center can make or break a line.  So I'm not willing to discount what you're saying. 

Only to point out that if your QB play is elevated by the players around him and not vice versa, then is it really your long-term QB? 

I think PFF's OL grading is pretty good... at least that was my experience when once-upon-a-time I graded our OL. And, yes, Glasgow is a building block. Really liked him when a scouted him a few drafts ago.

 

Your QB question is a good one.

My answer is: Yes... until a better one comes along. Goes with my philosophy of you always need to be looking for your next QB. Only the intensity (and price you are willing to pay) vary.

It's why you take a Day 3 QB (or sign a UDFA) close to every year. There's almost always a "dark-horse" out there who has a shot. It's how NE came across TB12. It's like panning for gold.

It's why a Philly spends a 2nd on a Hurts when they have a Wentz.

Even explains a team taking two QBs in the same draft (WSH 2012... RG3 and Cousins).

[SdBacker80]

34 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Bingo.

While it's a small sample size, some of the Denver games I've watched this year...  Lock has made some absolutely unforgivable throws.  High school level shit.

As for their Oline? They have one of the rising young LT"s in the NFL, a decent pair of guard play (Glasglow is pretty good) and then Demar Dotson, who I don't know much about but PFF has graded him as "starting" level for the season.  PFF and I have our spats but I don't recall Dotson being rolled when I watched them.      What I do remember is their center be straight trash. And......   Yep,  PFF seems to hate him.  So at least individual grades seem about eye to eye today.     Then again, a terrible center can make or break a line.  So I'm not willing to discount what you're saying.  Only to point out that if your QB play is elevated by the players around him and not vice versa, then is it really your long-term QB? 

If Fields flops v Clemson or puts some shakes tape, he would do best to come back for another year IMHO.   Make your run at the Heisman and Natty fresh with all the chemistry and development that we haven't seen since Troy to Teddy and Gonzo.   I can't even begin to stress how rare it is for me to say that as well.  A potential 1st round pick?  The last time I said a Buckeye should stay was.....Thaddeus Gipson? Maybe?  But he wasn't being hyped as a 1st rounder either.  So I have to dig deep and say it was a two-fer with Ashton Youboty and Donte' Whitner.     The 2006 defense with 2 extra capable DB's instead of trotting out Jamario O'Neal and Yao Smith =(     Might not have shit the bed against *ichigan and UF that year.

If Fields struggles and gets drafted on the strength of a scripted workout..?  Then congrats, some GM is making the same mistake that has been done hundreds of times before him. 

edit: Especially in what will most likely be a very crowded QB class.

He went from a guy that was careful (‘19 season) with the ball to a guy that was reckless at times in The pursuit of Heisman and making up for lost time due to the BigTen botch job of the season.  I’m Making the excuse because I saw enough of ‘19 to make the excuse.  ‘19 season - 41 TDs 3 INTs which included the Clemson game and a play that unfortunately defined his season an INT at the expense of the WR taking the wrong turn. 

‘20 hasn’t been god awful.  It’s been suspect and questionable at times.  If you recall he had at one time 12 TDs and 11 Incompletions over the first 3 games. 

I don’t know enough about the position to claim he’s a lock at the next level.  His ball placement at times has been fabulous.  He’s made some anticipatory throws well.  I think arm strength checks out well.  He’s got the size.  But He holds the ball too long (sounds like our guy), he moves VERY well which is weapon for some lucky team. He forced the issue more times than most would like this year. He doesn’t look completely out of place under center.  He seems like a hard worker and he’s played though injury (knee last year).  
 

Not a Patrick Mahomes comparison here but I’d consider him in the Top 10 sit him for most of the first year and play him at the end like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.  Fields has 20 career starts - he’s not fully there yet which makes his skill set too enticing - he has tools that can be greatly enhanced with more snaps.
 

 

[tiamat63]

4 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

I think PFF's OL grading is pretty good... at least that was my experience when once-upon-a-time I graded our OL. And, yes, Glasgow is a building block. Really liked him when a scouted him a few drafts ago.

 

Your QB question is a good one.

My answer is: Yes... until a better one comes along. Goes with my philosophy of you always need to be looking for your next QB. Only the intensity (and price you are willing to pay) vary.

It's why you take a Day 3 QB (or sign a UDFA) close to every year. There's almost always a "dark-horse" out there who has a shot. It's how NE came across TB12. It's like panning for gold.

It's why a Philly spends a 2nd on a Hurts when they have a Wentz.

Even explains a team taking two QBs in the same draft (WSH 2012... RG3 and Cousins).

Exactly.  So I guess my point ends up coming back around on itself.

I don't believe Lock is their "long term" answer at this point.  And outside of center, Denver's oline is pretty good.   However I think it would be stupid for them to end up taking the 3rd or 4th QB in this draft (possibly Fields) because that really doesn't strike me as a winning strategy.   At which point when Lawrence is picked #1, teams will have to basically convince themselves they love the next guy.   How many times have we see this in the last decade alone? Gabbert, Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, Lynch, etc etc.  

 

 

[SdBacker80]

3 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Exactly.  So I guess my point ends up coming back around on itself.

I don't believe Lock is their "long term" answer at this point.  And outside of center, Denver's oline is pretty good.   However I think it would be stupid for them to end up taking the 3rd or 4th QB in this draft (possibly Fields) because that really doesn't strike me as a winning strategy.   At which point when Lawrence is picked #1, teams will have to basically convince themselves they love the next guy.   How many times have we see this in the last decade alone? Gabbert, Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, Lynch, etc etc.  

 

 

Or this could be 1983 or  2004 with multiple great QBs.  I think we are due. 

I think Lock is part of the reason the Broncos haven’t taken off.  Reviews are mixed so far - is that fair? 
 

[tiamat63]

11 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

He went from a guy that was careful (‘19 season) with the ball to a guy that was reckless at times in The pursuit of Heisman and making up for lost time due to the BigTen botch job of the season.  I’m Making the excuse because I saw enough of ‘19 to make the excuse.  ‘19 season - 41 TDs 3 INTs which included the Clemson game and a play that unfortunately defined his season an INT at the expense of the WR taking the wrong turn. 

‘20 hasn’t been god awful.  It’s been suspect and questionable at times.  If you recall he had at one time 12 TDs and 11 Incompletions over the first 3 games. 

I don’t know enough about the position to claim he’s a lock at the next level.  His ball placement at times has been fabulous.  He’s made some anticipatory throws well.  I think arm strength checks out well.  He’s got the size.  But He holds the ball too long (sounds like our guy), he moves VERY well which is weapon for some lucky team. He forced the issue more times than most would like this year. He doesn’t look completely out of place under center.  He seems like a hard worker and he’s played though injury (knee last year).  
 

Not a Patrick Mahomes comparison here but I’d consider him in the Top 10 sit him for most of the first year and play him at the end like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.  Fields has 20 career starts - he’s not fully there yet which makes his skill set too enticing - he has tools that can be greatly enhanced with more snaps.
 

 

You're forgetting all of the 2019 season.  Remember all 3qrts of the B1G title game?  That was some fun foreshadowing of how things went against Clemson.   While Fields played ok at times, a couple of his turnovers (the one specifically to Isiah Simmons that I keep bringing up) was bush league.    Keep this in mind - Fields struggled to beat Clemson's secondary which consisted most of future NFL linebackers.   K'Von Wallace, Issiah Simmons and Tanner Muse are ALL NFL LB's now but DB's at Clemson.    Which was why calling the home-run shot soon to come by Joey Burrow was an easy call.  I said 4TD's,  Ol' boy hung 5 on em'.

As for '20?  I do remember those first 3 games.   All against bottom 1/3 secondaries.   Seeing a trend?   I have to be consistent even if it's with my team.  I gave the same knock to Johnny Manziel when we drafted him because in 2 season, he beat ONE top 50 defense and was kicked around by the rest.  

You'll find no argument from me about JF's physical dimensions.  He "looks" like an NFL QB.  But that really doesn't mean a damn thing in the grand scheme.  His holding onto the ball is indicative of pre-snap determinations, slow post snap processing and poor eye movement.   As I said in my first paragraph, when teams started being talented enough to slow down Dobbins and force our QB to shoulder the load, he started to buckle.   The same thing has happened this year.  Twice indicates a trend...

And as for that WR "taking a wrong turn".  Absolutely not.   I remember that play well and broke it down on this very board (I'm pretty sure?) it was a Hitch-Po against cover 2.  Olave broke to the post and split both safeties.   It was a gimmie throw from most every future NFL QB.   Fields stared at it, didn't deliver, and when he started to shuffle in the pocket for a throwing lane, Olave thought it was a scramble drill (as had been the previous few games) so he broke to where a dead spot should* have been.     Sadly, instead of Fields working on sliding his feet and resetting in the pocket all year against lesser teams, he would routinely let his athletic ability bail him out or even worse, hold onto the ball for a sack.   Peep those numbers by the way when you get a second.  I believe 11 sacks on the year accredited to JF in 2019.     

JF was late, didn't place the ball where it needed to go, and when you have WR's who believe their QB can be a bit of a wild card at times .... that's the result you get.  

 

 

[tiamat63]

4 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Or this could be 1983 or  2004 with multiple great QBs.  I think we are due. 

I think Lock is part of the reason the Broncos haven’t taken off.  Reviews are mixed so far - is that fair? 
 

Fair. 

 

By the way, as we converse here... I'm doing a write up on the first viewing of Chazz Surrbat both you and @TexasAg1969 requested.

[Tour2ma]

8 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

How many times have we see this in the last decade alone? Gabbert, Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, Lynch, etc etc. 

1... 2... 3... 4... I am going to go with at least 5...

I think I've read where Round 1 QBs are the best bet at about 50/50 and the odds only go down from there.

The search may be a long one, but you have to keep sifting until you find one. Of course it helps if you are not stupid, e.g., Wheezy, JFF, Lynch.

[tiamat63]

Just now, Tour2ma said:

1... 2... 3... 4... I am going to go with at least 5...

I think I've read where Round 1 QBs are the best bet at about 50/50 and the odds only go down from there.

The search may be a long one, but you have to keep sifting until you find one. Of course it helps if you are not stupid, e.g., Wheezy, JFF, Lynch.

Round 1 is the place, there's no getting around that.

   QB's are almost the antithesis to TE's in that respect.  You just find so much talent at TE between 2-4 that's it's almost pointless to spend a 1st rounder on one.  

[SdBacker80]

8 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

You're forgetting all of the 2019 season.  Remember all 3qrts of the B1G title game?  That was some fun foreshadowing of how things went against Clemson.   While Fields played ok at times, a couple of his turnovers (the one specifically to Isiah Simmons that I keep bringing up) was bush league.    Keep this in mind - Fields struggled to beat Clemson's secondary which consisted most of the NFL linebackers.   K'Von Wallace, Issiah Simmons and Tanner Muse are ALL NFL LB's now.    Which was why calling the homerun shot soon to come by Joey Burrow was an easy one.  

As for '20?  I do remember those first 3 games.   All against bottom 1/3 secondaries.   Seeing a trend?   I have to be consistent even if it's with my team.  I gave the same knock to Johnny Manziel when we drafted him because in 2 season, he beat ONE top 50 defense and was kicked around by the rest.  

You'll find no argument from me about JF's physical dimensions.  He "looks" like an NFL QB.  But that really doesn't mean a damn thing in the grand scheme.  His holding onto the ball is indicative of pre-snap determinations, slow post snap processing and poor eye movement.   As I said in my first paragraph, when teams started being talented enough to slow down Dobbins and force our QB to shoulder the load, he started to buckle.   The same thing has happened this year.  Twice indicates a trend...

And as for that WR "taking a wrong turn".  Absolutely not.   I remember that play well and broke it down on this very board (I'm pretty sure?) it was a Hitch-Po against cover 2.  Olave broke to the post and split both safeties.   It was a gimmie throw from most every future NFL QB.   Fields stared at it, didn't deliver, and when he started to shuffle in the pocket for a throwing lane, Olave thought it was a scramble drill (as had been the previous few games) so he broke to where a dead spot should* have been.     Sadly, instead of Fields working on sliding his feet and resetting in the pocket all year against lesser teams, he would routinely let his athletic ability bail him out or even worse, hold onto the ball for a sack.   Peep those numbers by the way when you get a second.  I believe 11 sacks on the year accredited to JF in 2019.     

JF was late, didn't place the ball where it needed to go, and when you have WR's who believe their QB can be a bit of a wild card at times .... that's the result you get.  

 

 

It was to the Post (supposed to be) UNLESS Fields scrambled out of the pocket.  He didn’t.  Interviews all over the place confirmed that. 
 

Anyway a tough INT.  Not uncharacteristically awful INT for a first year starter but obviously devastating given the circumstance. 

[Tour2ma]

Just now, tiamat63 said:

Round 1 is the place, there's no getting around that.

   QB's are almost the antithesis to TE's in that respect.  You just find so much talent at TE between 2-4 that's it's almost pointless to spend a 1st rounder on one.  

Someone dug up an analysis of draft history of success by position vs. round prior to the 2020 draft. I probably bookmarked it and will find it someday...

I do remember that the OL success did not correlate with the round a prospect was picked while QB was the most highly correlated.

[SdBacker80]

I’ll leave this alone...I’ve been more wrong with QBs than right. 
 

But I know If you don’t have the long term answer at QB you better find it.  This seems like a Good QB class to find it. 

[tiamat63]

4 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

It was to the Post (supposed to be) UNLESS Fields scrambled out of the pocket.  He didn’t.  Interviews all over the place confirmed that. 
 

Anyway a tough INT.  Not uncharacteristically awful INT for a first year starter but obviously devastating given the circumstance. 

I'm petty.

JF kept "drifting" away from the center at this point, he reads the low hole drop shallow but instead of throwing to a spot and trusting his receiver, he waits for Olave to cross the face of the safety while moving his feet and drifting.  He's got the window now, so set your feet and deliver.  

This screenshot is when that ball should have been gone.  That's an NFL throw, not "I'll throw it when it looks open".   A "I see the window developing" anticipation throw. 

Interviews can say all they want and good teammates won't throw each other under the bus.  Leaders don't do that.  Fortunately for me, I'm not on the team so I can call it as it is.

 

 

 

I'll get back with you on Chazz in 30.  

 

 

P.S.  since I have you boys here, why is there no Browns Board discord?   

 

[TexasAg1969]

3 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

I'm petty.

JF kept "drifting" away from the center at this point, he reads the low hole drop shallow but instead of throwing to a spot and trusting his receiver, he waits for Olave to cross the face of the safety while moving his feet and drifting.  He's got the window now, so set your feet and deliver.  

This screenshot is when that ball should have been gone.  That's an NFL throw, not "I'll throw it when it looks open".   A "I see the window developing" anticipation throw. 

Interviews can say all they want and good teammates won't throw each other under the bus.  Leaders don't do that.  Fortunately for me, I'm not on the team so I can call it as it is.

 

 

 

I'll get back with you on Chazz in 30.  

 

 

P.S.  since I have you boys here, why is there no Browns Board discord?   

 

That's over in "the other" section.😁

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

That's over in "the other" section.😁

I'm too sober to deal with that.

[The Gipper]

56 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Exactly.  So I guess my point ends up coming back around on itself.

I don't believe Lock is their "long term" answer at this point.  And outside of center, Denver's oline is pretty good.   However I think it would be stupid for them to end up taking the 3rd or 4th QB in this draft (possibly Fields) because that really doesn't strike me as a winning strategy.   At which point when Lawrence is picked #1, teams will have to basically convince themselves they love the next guy.   How many times have we see this in the last decade alone? Gabbert, Bortles, Weeden, Manziel, Lynch, etc etc.  

 

 

Well, here are some guys that were "the next guy"...or the next guy after that

Lamar Jackson

Pat Mahomes

DeShaun 

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roesthlisberger

Drew Brees

Brett Favre. 

The next guy can be THE guy. 

[tiamat63]

*   After tonight, just checking back in.

Wade is out of the 1st barring some dumb move by a GM or destroying the combine and convincing scouts it the coaches fault at tOSU.

Scouts are going to look twice at Fields spotty off-speed throwing when coming off his primary and most importantly - leading his targets into harms way (Battle's hit on Ruckert)