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Week 5: Colts (3-1) @ Browns (3-1) Thread... The Battle of the Once-Beatens


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5 hours ago, The Gipper said:

I guess if this thread is going to go to the birds, may as well go all the way.

As many of you may know my son is at Cornell.  Cornell also happens to be the leading (world? USA) ornithilogical university. My son has taken on birding (don't call it birdwatching)  as a hobby and has taken a course or two in it  (it is wholly outside his field of study, which is Biochemistry)  and I have gotten into it...but just a little bit.   He actually did see a Snowy owl up near Ithaca.  It is fairly rare to see them in the US. They mostly hang in Canada.  Pileated woodpeckers are all around. 5 Keel Billed Toucan?  I am pretty sure you would need to go to Central America or South America for those. 

I have seen Condors at the Grand Canyon.  Though I cannot say I have seen "wild peacocks".  HOwever, for species counting,  if a peacock is roaming the grounds free, and is not pent up, you can count the observation of them for your personal species count. 

Here are important websites for your birding...each a Cornell originated site:

https://ebird.org/home

https://merlin.allaboutbirds.org/

 

There’s a fantastic movie about birding called Big Year. It stars Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson and follows their quest to see as many species of birds in the US. Based on real events l believe. Real feel good flick that sorta gave me a passing interest in birding as well. Highly recommended if you haven’t seen it.

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On 10/7/2020 at 6:23 PM, Tour2ma said:

The Yahoo Pick'em line opened at Browns (+1.0) Monday... jumped to 2.5 Tuesday... and then dropped to 1.5 today.

 

Not unusual for a line to move, but then to reverse? Unusual...

Yea, reversing course is unusual - that's showcasing the $ moving back and forth. Other than Balt., Indy is the best team they have faced. 

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33 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

I'm calling the pick 6 this week. I feel it. Phil will destroy us over the middle but we'll get him on a weakly thrown out pattern. 

He’s gotta deliver the ball quickly is starting Left Tackle Anthony Castonzo already ruled out. 
 

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46 minutes ago, Ibleedbrown said:

There’s a fantastic movie about birding called Big Year. It stars Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson and follows their quest to see as many species of birds in the US. Based on real events l believe. Real feel good flick that sorta gave me a passing interest in birding as well. Highly recommended if you haven’t seen it.

Yes, I have seen it a couple of times.  Like it very much.  It is funny, but not hilarious.  It is dramatic some, but not melodramatic.  I guess you can call it sweet, cute,  but not syrupy or anything. 

It is based on a true story of 3 guys that were competing for that "Big Year".    One of the real guys that it is based on I believe is from Canton.

https://www.npr.org/2011/10/16/141387194/the-real-birdwatchers-behind-hollywoods-big-year

Jack Black portrayed the Canton guy:

jack-black-and-greg-miller-sm-by-cam-shaw_wide-1fcb17df055b7c2b1de4a59fef8b4305f8256ca6-s800-c85.jpg

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confirmed after both team practices Friday 

Browns...Greedy/Ogun/ Tre Davis OUT Sunday....  Clayborn & Joesph Questionable Sunday....  Njoku is likely IN*

Colts...T Anthony Castonzo & LB D.Leonard are officially OUT Sunday 👌 LBer A.Walker Questionable T Le'Raven Clark is next man up at T

from both teams website

 

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1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said:

He’s gotta deliver the ball quickly is starting Left Tackle Anthony Castonzo already ruled out. 
 

Holy shit, seriously? I can't believe it. I didn't think he was hurt that badly, but that's HUGE! 

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We thought the same when Taylor Lewan was out for Week One vs the Titans last season..👀.. Sure ain't fallen for that Twice!! Pro's are Pro's for a reason.. Just play our* game..

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1 minute ago, gumby73 said:

We thought the same when Taylor Lewan was out for Week One vs the Titans last season..👀.. Sure ain't fallen for that Twice!! Pro's are Pro's for a reason.. Just play our* game..

It's so funny you say that because I was just about to mention the same exact thing. For some reason, there just doesn't seem to be that gigantic drop off from one to the next. That being said, I DO believe it will drastically impact their running game. Colts generally favor running behind their all world Guard Quentin Nelson and Costanzo at Tackle, and that's going to be a rad different now. Also, their right side of the OL isn't strong, so you can move Garrett all over the place and cause trouble per the norm. 

The Colts provide a tough test for several reasons. For one, they're physical. They don't do anything exotic on defense, but what they do, they do well. Their DL is a nightmare and allows them to only rush 4 to get insane pressure. This is a reason why they lead the league INTs and have two pick-6's. They don't allow teams to run the ball and they have yet to give up a run of over 20 yards. That's dumb. Furthermore, the Colts beat the piss out of the Vikings. Why is that important? Because the Vikings are extremely similar to us. Cousins was like 11-28 for essentially nothing and the talented Dalvin Cook did diddly-poo as well. 

In other irritating news, we're playing Phillip Rivers. Now, we've beaten him before (our lone victory one year btw) and Old Man Rivers has beaten our asses plenty of other times. Why is this irritating? Because Rivers absolutely THRIVES at doing what we suck at defending. He will feast all day long in the middle of the field and not throw a ball further than 9 yards in the air all game until he floats a perfect duck down the seam to their TE for a 30 yard TD. Rivers doesn't push the ball to the outside hashes much, but make no mistake, he'll dice you up in the middle, and we suck at protecting this area. 

"Jiggins, you're just full of wonderful news! It sounds like we're totally effed Sunday!" 

Not so fast my friend! As previously mentioned, the Colts will be without their all-world LT, but more importantly, they'll be without their badass linebacker, Darius Leonard. Leonard is the straw that stirs the defensive drink, and while their DL is fantastic, Leonard is the one shutting down a bunch of stuff. What else? Well, Colts don't score a bunch of points, and they haven't exactly played the creme del la creme. They beat up on the Jets, Jags, and Vikings. If we can follow our formula of running well, converting TO's to TDs, and shutting down the run, we're going to have a good chance.

Make no mistake, this will be a frustrating game for a while. The Colts excel in this. Rivers will BARELY get the ball out a zillion times and hit somebody in stride across the middle for 7 yards on 3rd and 6. It's what he does. However, he WILL give us a few chances at picks. We simply CANNOT drop them like we did last week. Rivers ALWAYS does this. We have to captilize on mistakes and turn them into points. This game is going to be extremely fun and a bit different from the other games. If I was a betting man I wouldn't touch this game. I don't have a good handle on it. That being said, I'm still going with us because I like this whole "we can win games" thing we have going on! 

Our Browns are making plays when we need them. How LONG have we waited for that! How many games have we been 1 play away? One sack? One fumble? One pick when we HAD to have it? We're doing it now and we're going to continue it Sunday. 

Browns 26

Colts 17

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A little recon by Dawgs by Nature's Chris Pokorny...

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2020/10/9/21508180/scouting-the-browns-week-5-opponent-indianapolis-colts-our-q-a-with-stampede-blue

Scouting the Browns’ Week 5 opponent: Indianapolis Colts - Our Q&A with Stampede Blue

We ask about Philip Rivers in a Colts uniform, just how good Indianapolis’ defense is, and more.

By Chris Pokorny@DawgsByNature Oct 9, 2020, 2:43pm EDT

Pokorny:Philip Rivers is the Colts’ new quarterback in 2020. Everyone knows the type of quarterback he is from all his years with the Chargers, so tell us in general how he has performed along with the Colts’ receivers.”

Blystone:Rivers has been a massive upgrade over Jacoby Brissett. While that doesn’t say all that much, it is really nice to have a quarterback who can quickly work through his progressions and hit receivers all over the field. Rivers has a great feel for timing routes, and an aptitude for screen passes that the Colts did not have with Brissett, so having him under center is a big advantage for this team.

Having said that, the Colts have not asked Rivers to carry this team at any point in the season. This is a run-first team, and they have been relying on defense, the run game, and special teams play to win games, rather than leaning on Rivers. He’s played like a guy capable of making big-time throws, but so far this season, he hasn’t been asked to very often.”

Pokorny:Jonathan Taylor is the Colts’ starting running back this year after being selected as one of their second-round draft picks. How has the rookie’s performance been?”

Blystone: “Jonathan Taylor has looked the part of a running back picked that high in the draft. He’s got explosiveness, speed, power, and runs angry. One of the concerns about Taylor coming into the season was that he tended to put the ball on the turf at a higher rate than you’d like from a featured back. That hasn’t been an issue for him so far, as ball security has been at a premium. Additionally, with Rivers dealing the football, Taylor has proven himself to be a capable pass-catching back, and has the kind of speed that can absolutely torch defenses if he gets the ball in the second level. Given some of the injuries to the Colts receivers, Taylor has been one of the most effective offensive players on the team in 2020.”

Pokorny: “Defense, defense, defense. Through four weeks, Indianapolis has the top-ranked defense in the NFL in yards allowed, excelling at defending both the run and the pass. Sometimes, numbers tell the truth, and sometimes they lie, depending on how the flow of the games have gone. From your assessment, what is the top strength of the Colts’ defense?”

Blystone: “The Colts defense is strongest at stopping the run, and that is in large part due to the fact that they added DeForest Buckner to the middle of their defensive line in the offseason. The stat sheets can’t do justice to the season Buckner has had, but this film breakdown might. When you add his level of talent up front, it creates a ripple effect throughout the rest of the defense, and the Colts have felt that. Their talented linebacker corps has been fast to hit their run fits, and have gotten clean to the backfield consistently due to the penetration from the interior defensive linemen. What’s more, the young secondary has risen to the challenge and played well. They are opportunistic and making plays when they are most needed, despite being banged up a bit early in the season.”

Pokorny: “If there is an area where the Colts’ defense has had some issues in the first four games, tell us a little about it.”

Blystone: “There haven’t been many major struggles in terms of the defense once they got up to speed, but in week one they did struggle with miscommunications about assignments in the secondary. That led to receivers not getting covered properly and busted coverages that often went for bigger plays. That has not reared its head again, but is something to watch.

For a defense that will give up short throws, they have in prior years been susceptible to teams that have talented running backs who can take dump passes in the second level and make guys miss, although that has not been an issue so far this season. However, with Darius Leonard potentially missing this game with a groin injury, it could certainly be a weakness to capitalize on.”

Pokorny: “Tell us about one player on offense and one player on defense who Browns fans might not be familiar with, but who could make a nice contribution for this week’s game.”

Blystone: “The first name to watch is rookie safety Julian Blackmon. He is just 10 months removed from an ACL tear, but has somehow gotten back to playing shape in extraordinary time. More than that, he has stepped in for starting safety Malik Hooker and offered an immediate and significant upgrade. An impact player with a pass breakup that led to an interception as well as a pick himself, Blackmon has flashed all the things you want from a rookie, and he is likely to continue making splash plays as a young player proving he is a ball hawk in the making.

On offense, the player Browns fans might not have heard of is tight end Mo Alie-Cox. Alie-Cox has been bounced from active roster to practice squad, but finally stuck last season. He is a converted basketball player who didn’t play a down of college football. In fact, his last football before being signed by the Colts was as a freshman in high school. Since joining the Colts, he has flourished as a blocking tight end, and this season he has been breaking out as a pass catcher. A crazy athlete, he has put some truly spectacular catches on film, and has the ability to move far better than a man his size should be able to. The Colts have not featured him fully yet this season, but Frank Reich will definitely get him involved in the game plan, and he is one to watch.”

 
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12 hours ago, Unsympathetic said:

More Teller fun: He's PFF's highest rated OG - ever - through the first 4 wks of a season.  Also, some coach named Callahan is good.

Buckner vs Teller suddenly becomes must-watch television.

it isn't just Teller, though ! It's the entire offensive line. lol

I love watching offensive line play...NOW.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/the-nfls-secret-superstars-justin-herbert-antonio-gibson-carlton-davis/

The NFL's Secret Superstars of Week 4

The Cleveland Browns' entire offensive line

The Browns rank first in @fboutsiders' Adjusted Line Yards metric, and also in second-level rushing yards. Why? A lot to do with Bill Callahan's coaching, but it's how everybody blocks in sync that makes this offense dangerous. pic.twitter.com/m0lm01zvMF

— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 8, 2020

 

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22 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

it isn't just Teller, though ! It's the entire offensive line. lol

I love watching offensive line play...NOW.

It really is something to see, especially the growth of Teller. Homeboy gonna get some money soon. This match-up will be similar to Washington, but I don't expect the Colts to give us so many freebies and I expect them to be able to score more. A great test for sure. 

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The Colts losing Cost and Leo might be the absolute best case scenario for us.    Rivers will make mistakes when you hit him enough and Myles now has that opportunity.  I guess I typed too fast there - should* Myles get that opportunity.

Us losing Jobi for this game means the Colts might lean heavily on Taylor early and often.   Toss in working over our linebackers with Cox and Doyle...   We're going to have to stand tall on the DI if Myles, Vern, Clayborne and Co want to earn those pass rush snaps and give our backers a fighting chance.  

As for Darius Leonard being out?  Great for our short to intermediate passing game.  That dude can cover some serious ground underneath.  

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12 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

The Colts losing Cost and Leo might be the absolute best case scenario for us.    Rivers will make mistakes when you hit him enough and Myles now has that opportunity.  I guess I typed too fast there - should* Myles get that opportunity.

Us losing Jobi for this game means the Colts might lean heavily on Taylor early and often.   Toss in working over our linebackers with Cox and Doyle...   We're going to have to stand tall on the DI if Myles, Vern, Clayborne and Co want to earn those pass rush snaps and give our backers a fighting chance.  

As for Darius Leonard being out?  Great for our short to intermediate passing game.  That dude can cover some serious ground underneath.  

Do you think that now we will see some slants by Landry to that middle area? I think that short passes will be key for keeping drives alive. 

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17 minutes ago, Nero said:

Do you think that now we will see some slants by Landry to that middle area? I think that short passes will be key for keeping drives alive. 

There's a great deal that you can do to exploit any given schematic or personnel liability, especially if said liability is a linebacker.

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2 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

There's a great deal that you can do to exploit any given schematic or personnel liability, especially if said liability is a linebacker.

In my ignorance, slants are one of the most obvious ones, and maybe wheels, because it requires the LB to have a good range (Hunt is a good receiving RB, so maybe we use that too). I'm all ears for what other suggestions you have. 

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21 minutes ago, Nero said:

In my ignorance, slants are one of the most obvious ones, and maybe wheels, because it requires the LB to have a good range (Hunt is a good receiving RB, so maybe we use that too). I'm all ears for what other suggestions you have.

Most obvious for me is running the ball. That Leonard guy would just be everywhere and shut that shit DOWN. This is the equivalent of those previous Panther teams losing Kuechly. We were always going to try and run it, but now we'll be able to even more. 

Don't be surprised if we get down in this game a little bit and we have to come back. Just a feeling, but I think we can win today. Won't be pretty, but I won't care! 

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23 minutes ago, Nero said:

In my ignorance, slants are one of the most obvious ones, and maybe wheels, because it requires the LB to have a good range (Hunt is a good receiving RB, so maybe we use that too). I'm all ears for what other suggestions you have. 

Against a linebacker?  Concept wise?  Damn near anything.   I'll throw mesh, some spot, spot and go,  a drag/settle read, hitch-po vs the Cover 2 the colts love...  Basically anything that involves quickness and precision provided I get favorable looks with my receivers.  Bigger bodies?  I'll test that strength, 3 and a hitch, some easy short levels, let Harrison use his height and arm length to his advantage and see if your replacement can punish him for it. 

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23 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

Most obvious for me is running the ball. That Leonard guy would just be everywhere and shut that shit DOWN. This is the equivalent of those previous Panther teams losing Kuechly. 

My concern is St👀Ping 🛑 Jonathan Taylor on the other side of the ball..Early & often.. Click this to the Colts running directions.. https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/directional-rushing-production--off-.html  .. Up the Gut & Q.Nelson student body left or right

Were down Ogun.. And Shelton Richardson might be 85%? ? We'll dress up at DT? V.Taylor/Rookie J.Elliott & a PS bring up Joie Ivey(#66)  with Richardson. Behind that sure ain't a Kuechly LB for us..

He who stops the running games in these kinda of games is a Huge key...    

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Keys for today besides the obvious limit turnovers and create turnovers. 

1. We need to block Buckner.  We had a problem with him last year against SF.  He can penetrate and wreck our scheme.

2. 40/30 Run Pass again or close to it.  If it goes for 2/3 early don’t panic.  

3. Get Landry and OBJ going early get the backers and secondary reading/worrying about pass first 

Defensively

1. Interior pressure on Rivers. I’ve seen it for years - Rivers can handle bad tackle play. He’s got an amazing release and he’s gonna use his wide bodied TEs on curl routes over the middle. And one of them is an ex BBall player too. He doesn’t need a ton of time.  But he can’t hit that route or the skinny post over the middle when he can’t set his feet and step into the pocket he’s not vintage Rivers.  Larry O. Out is a HUGE loss. I’d move Garrett in on pass downs.

2.  Tackle and rally to the ball. This isn’t a vertical team. We have to play well within a box.  Tackle J Taylor.   If Rivers And TY connection suddenly works so be it.   This isn’t the game where you just keep it all in front of you.  Rivers will take 13 play 75 yard drives all day and not make the mistakes we’ve seen from other QBs.  You will see a swing passes to backs, TE curl routes and 10-15 skinny post to Outside guys.  Everything he does well and the Colts do well can and will expose Our weak LB play and That’s the Rivers route tree in the last quarter of his career.

Before Leonard was out (LB Corp is pretty much all banged up) i had us going down something like 27-20.  I’d flip it but I could easily see us not performing well today.  It’s a tough matchup.  
 

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36 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

Were down Ogun.. And Shelton Richardson might be 85%? ? We'll dress up at DT? V.Taylor/Rookie J.Elliott & a PS bring up Joie Ivey(#66)  with Richardson. Behind that sure ain't a Kuechly LB for us..

Ogunjobi absolutely kills us. It's that time of year where depth gets tested and people have to step up. Make no mistake, we're going to get absolutely butt-smoked in the middle of the field. Nobody, I mean NOBODY, throws a better over the middle, 8 yard pass than Rivers. He's in stride, on the money, every time. It's completely obnoxious and frustrating. This is the primary reason I think we're going to be behind early.

I also think we're going to struggle on the red zone. Right now we're absolutely on fire and we can't continue that pace, it's just not possible. As a result, Cody Parky will be a main cog in the wheel of victory today. 

I really hope our defensive backfield worked on their hands this week because they dropped a couple of picks last week and Rivers is likely to give us a few opportunities as well. We HAVE to continue our trend of turnovers and score off them. Right now we're first in the league in this category...build on it. 

My random prediction of the day is that Bryant will have another TD. It'll be either Bryant or Carlson. We've been sending them out for deeper routes, especially when we get to around the green zone area. I can see Baker taking a shot down the seam. 

I also think we're going to turn it over a couple times today. Let's face it, turnovers have a habit of showing up in bunches. We're due. This is another reason I think we'll be down early. Again, I'm just wildly speculating because it's fun, but we're also due for a fumble or a deflection INT, or whatever. If Baker does have another pick-free game, I'll be so proud of him. That would make it 3 in a row. 

Speaking of Baker, what does he need to do in order to keep improving? I'm glad you asked! Right now Baker is playing very well, and he's becoming more comfortable in our offense. Kirk Cousins had modest production in his first 4 games under Stefanski, and then blew up after he became more knowledgeable. The same can definitely happen with Baker. 

So what is he doing wrong now? Well, primarily it's one thing, and it's a rather large one. Baker does not trust his eyes in the middle of the field and it's becoming an issue. You know those plays where Baker doesn't see anything and then eventually runs to his right? Many times, not every time, there is somebody open over the middle. I don't know if Baker can't see them, doesn't trust himself, or what the problem is, but he simply will NOT cut it loose over the middle consistently. 

You remember those terrific 3rd down conversions to Landry last week, right? All 3 were variations of an out route, nothing over the middle. You'll find this is the case for the majority of his throws. As a rookie, Baker targeted the middle with greater frequency, but I think coach is trying to make the game easier for him by removing the inherent risk of throwing it where more defenders are lurking. Makes sense, and it's WORKING, but for Baker to make the next step in his evolution, he'll have to use the entire field, and I believe he will do so this year. 

I didn't plan on writing another damn novel, so I'm sorry. I seriously doubt anyone will read this, but it's here if you're bored, lol. Can't wait for the game....and I totally detest the late start time. I want my football now! Can't wait to talk shop in the Tavern! 

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55 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Before Leonard was out (LB Corp is pretty much all banged up) i had us going down something like 27-20.  I’d flip it but I could easily see us not performing well today.  It’s a tough matchup.

Terrific summation. I went ahead and picked us to win, but if we do, it'll be ugly. I just have this feeling that it's going to be a shit fest and if we win we'll have to grit it out. You're definitely right about Rivers' ability to play with subpar Tackles. It's uncanny how he gets the ball off while about to get sacked...in stride. 

This is a tough test. Colts have yet to give up a rush of 20 yards. Obviously we like to run the ball, so I imagine we're going to keep trying to pound it until the dam breaks. Until it does, get ready for a bunch of 2 yard runs and some 3rd and longs. 

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47 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

Ogunjobi absolutely kills us. It's that time of year where depth gets tested and people have to step up. Make no mistake, we're going to get absolutely butt-smoked in the middle of the field. Nobody, I mean NOBODY, throws a better over the middle, 8 yard pass than Rivers. No surprise if we see Garrett moved more inside today..With Clayborn back, he can bring heat.. 

My random prediction of the day is that Bryant will have another TD. It'll be either Bryant or Carlson. We've been sending them out for deeper routes, especially when we get to around the green zone area. I can see Baker taking a shot down the seam. David Njoku down the seam..They have nobody to match-up with him speed nor size today..

 or a deflection INT, or whatever. If Baker does have another pick-free game, I'll be so proud of him. That would make it 3 in a row. deflection INT's.. Stef answered your own questions after week 1.. see next phase down..

 

So what is he doing wrong now? Well, primarily it's one thing, and it's a rather large one. Baker does not trust his eyes in the middle of the field and it's becoming an issue. You know those plays where Baker doesn't see anything and then eventually runs to his right? Many times, not every time, there is somebody open over the middle. I don't know if Baker can't see them, doesn't trust himself, or what the problem is, but he simply will NOT cut it loose over the middle consistently. Stef has said so himself.."Baker is doing things he's never been asked to do" Have some patience.. Week 1 Bake could not get the ball threw the tight passing windows from the Ravens stout D front over the middle..If or When Bake did? Late/ Behind or inaccurate was his coaches teaching moment.. After week 1, the all 22's have shown, Baker moving out from behind the large tree's up front..finding the passing seams to get to..He's been more accurate getting out of there & he has a coaching staff that has improved him on it since week 1.. stay tuned, DeForrest Buckner today 🌳

 

I didn't plan on writing another damn novel, so I'm sorry. I seriously doubt anyone will read this, but it's here if you're bored, lol.  The wife hosted her Niece's baby shower with out of town guest stay overs Friday & Saturday.. I can now see my floor of the Man Cave that never saw a college snap all weekend.. I'll read anything football related at this point 🤓.. They all just left.. Now I really have to wait till 4:35? Christ said kickoff's can begin at 1PM... let us pray 🙏 i make it to 4:35.. Wife say's I'm now going grocery shopping? Really? #rallypussy

 

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16 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Us losing Jobi for this game means the Colts might lean heavily on Taylor early and often. 

Not sure we lose all that much in run D with Vince Taylor in for Ogun, but what we do lose is the balance Ogun brings in run/pass balance.

That'll likely mean a lot of rotation of our Taylor and Elliot based on down and distance... which obviously Indy could exploit in a tight game... and/or with a hurry-up series here and there.

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1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Not sure we lose all that much in run D with Vince Taylor in for Ogun, but what we do lose is the balance Ogun brings in run/pass balance.

That'll likely mean a lot of rotation of our Taylor and Elliot based on down and distance... which obviously Indy could exploit in a tight game... and/or with a hurry-up series here and there.

 

Against some of those zone calls? I feel you'll absolutely miss Jobi's combination of lateral quickness and downhill power.      But we'll know just how much in about 4 hours.

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