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How did the Defense get so bad?


The Gipper

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Having cap space is a byproduct of our many years in the wilderness.. Two years of 50M under a 140M cap means "cap space" of 100M for one season -- any one year gap gets rolled into the next. Cap the following season after spending that 100 is right "back" to the cap before the overage was achieved.

From OverTheCap: Total Cap Liabilities: $195,722,507

From Google: Total 2020 NFL cap: $198.2

That "cap space" number isn't real. Actual salaries are right at the cap and have been for a while.

Instead of lighting it on fire via a bunch of over-the-hill average FA's looking for a payday.. let's use that space to resign top draft picks who become good.

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Not just because he agrees with me (although that helps... a lot... ;)  ) here's Terry's reply to a 3-question parlay in today's mailbag...

Quote

Hey, Terry: We have a weak defense and $30 million in cap space. Is this part of analytics? – Mike Brubaker, Cuyahoga Falls.

Hey, Terry: With more than $30 million in cap space, who are some candidates they can scoop up to help the defense? Or are they banking all that cash for signings in the next two years (Chubb, Baker, etc.)? – Tom Harkness, Bay Village

Hey, Terry: Any analysis of how Joe Schobert has played? Wonder if letting him walk is a Mitchell Schwartz redo? – Tim Corbett, Dana Point, Calif.

Hey Mike, Tom & Tim: I put all three questions together because they involve money. When I interviewed Andrew Berry, the GM was clear that the main offseason priority was offense. That is where they used the money (free agents Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin and Case Keenum) and the top draft pick (Jedrick Wills).

They also wanted to start wrapping up key players, and they did extending the contracts of Myles Garrett and Kareem Hunt. They want to begin to win now, but also try to have money left for the future.

As Tom mentioned, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield and you can add Denzel Ward are eligible for extensions next season. Larry Ogunjobi is a free agent at the end of this year. That’s four starters. They are saving money for that.

The Browns are $33 million under the salary, most in the NFL. That’s according to overthecap.com.

I would have signed Schobert. The Jacksonville contract ($53 million) looks huge over five years. It’s $22 million guaranteed over the first two seasons, according to overthecap.com. I would have matched that deal.

As for Schobert, he’s been above average in the first two games, according to Profootballfocus (PFF). There have been 63 linebackers who have played at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps in the first two games.

Schobert ranks #15 out of 63.
 
Here’s a surprise: Macolm Smith of the Browns is at #11 and Sione Takitaki is at #17. I don’t see them playing so well. Smith ranks high in pass coverage.
 
BJ Goodson has played nearly every snap, and he’s had a tough time. He’s at #47 out of 63, and that does match the eye test.

When it comes to defense, the Browns (and analytics) says money should be spent on the line and on cornerbacks. Linebackers are not valued. Philadelphia takes the same approach. Berry was influenced by the Eagles, where he was an assistant GM last season.

Mack Wilson is in practice this week, so perhaps that helps at linebacker. But he had an so-so rookie year and is coming off a knee injury. Not sure what to expect from him.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/09/what-about-the-browns-defense-and-its-salary-cap-earl-thomas-joe-schobert-hey-terry.html

 

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21 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Not just because he agrees with me (although that helps... a lot... ;)  ) here's Terry's reply to a 3-question parlay in today's mailbag...

 

OK, so  Berry does not value LBs high because they did not do so in Philly.   

What does that tell us, considering how poorly this defense has played?   

Or, better yet....do some  comparison:    To the hated Steelers.   I say that our DL, and our defensive backfield (when healthy)  are at least the equal or better than  the Spermsuckers  DL and DB crew.  The difference?  They DO place great emphasis on their LBs....and have invested heavily in them. Several first rounders...including TJ Watt...and Devin Bush and Bud Dupree.     And where does their defense rank compared to ours?    They rank 5th best in pts. against,  Browns rank 29th. 

OK, so Berry emphasized offense, and having money for the future to sign key players is certainly critical. You cannot really argue with that.  So now we have to try to outscore teams, but that can't happen as much as we would like (see Ravens game).   Still...do you know what having bad defense gets you?  Losses.  Lost games, lost jobs for GMs and coaches. 

So...the message that seems to be coming through is that Berry seems likely to be willing to sacrifice this season for the sake of those key factors: offense and money for the future.  Defense...and with it...playoff contention can come later, apparently. 

Does that seem fair?   I know a lot of moves have been made on the defensive side....but were those the best we could do? Is rejection of higher profile defensive players that could seemingly help this team:  Thomas, Matthews, others, seem like the right philosophy? 

And should we expect a Steeler like approach to the Defense, particularly LBs come next draft? 

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On 9/22/2020 at 12:49 AM, Tour2ma said:

False. He was not replaced because we had greater needs in the draft and the FA market was not great. Add to the latter that we are still not that desirable a franchise.

 

As for your Cap projections.. source? Over-the-Cap shows a significantly growing cap margin thru 2024 (rising to $220mm), but that's because they do not project signings... they merely roll current contracts off the books as they expire.

If Baker plays the rest of the season as he did Thursday do you think he'll come cheap? Every team that inks a franchise QB faves cap pain. The one exception I can think of is NE... and that was only because TB12 took cap-friendly restructures of three different contracts (IIRC) so that other talent could be added or retained around him. You can't go crazy while your QB is on a rookie contract.

What about Chubb? Wills? Ward? Bito?

Every player has a value. Schobert simply exceeded his.

Don’t have a lot of free time so just getting back to this. 
 

My source is typing in “NFL Cap Space” into google and reading the first 15 sites that all list the Browns as having the most this year. Then clicking through the years and seeing them still near the top. 
 

So we can’t sign anybody because there are players we need to sign soon.... what about the big contracts that they won’t resign? Like Vernon’s worthlessness and his 11 mil contract? Or when Beckham and/or Laudry come off the books? Can’t front load a 3 year contract with a signing bonus for a 28-30 year old vet that can be dumped when you need the money to sign someone? 
 

I see Lb’s like Martinez sign with the giants for about 11 mil a year for 3 years, or hell even guys like Ogletree that would come in on low contracts that at least can play NFL linebacker. Then they have to go sign someone like Smith out of desperation right before the season because they just need a body....(but at least he is a vet.... why wasn’t someone like him already on the roster all camp...)

 

Watching that group play against a rookie QB and some third rate WR’s last week should give us all nightmares about what the defense is going to be able to stop going forward. (Not to mention the Ravens game...)
 

so you can’t draft top end LB because you have bigger needs elsewhere.... so you take Phillips which is fine, but then you look at the defensive depth chart and see that LB corps and think.... ya we are good, We just lost our two vet LB’s, have a kid in Mack that plays hot and ice cold.... but no need for even a bandaid contract in there to get us through.  Even with Mack back, you gotta be 30th-32nd in the league with that group. 
 

it might be different if you had lock down vet safeties and at least one vet LB, but none of those things exist on this roster.... the low end LB play is going to cost them a few games this year.

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9 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

This is Malcolm Smith's 9th year in the league...

 

... so there's that.

Yea, but then I did say "high profile" LBs.   Malcolm Smith....not so much on that count. (I don't think he ever made an impact that I recall...I barely knew his name).

And let me get this straight about the salary cap.   Say you have 30 million in cap space,  and say you sign one of these veterans, like  Thomas or Matthews who are sitting at home at this point, to a deal that just pays them...whatever amount, for this year.  Doesn't that cost for this year drop off....and be available again for next year and beyond?  So you would still have that 30 mill in cap space available for the future, for signing long deals with...whomever?  So using that money that you have just THIS YEAR, would not harm the plans for longevity.   Fair to say? 

Now, maybe those guys would be looking for a longer year deal....but the fact is their  paychecks for this year are exactly -0-.....and if they signed a just this year deal, maybe they could prove they still got it, and perhaps show that they deserve something longer term for next year and going forward.  (again, looking at Clay III...and seeing how long his pop and uncle played...he could have another 5 years) 

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15 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Yea, but then I did say "high profile" LBs.   Malcolm Smith....not so much on that count. (I don't think he ever made an impact that I recall...I barely knew his name).

And let me get this straight about the salary cap.   Say you have 30 million in cap space,  and say you sign one of these veterans, like  Thomas or Matthews who are sitting at home at this point, to a deal that just pays them...whatever amount, for this year.  Doesn't that cost for this year drop off....and be available again for next year and beyond?  So you would still have that 30 mill in cap space available for the future, for signing long deals with...whomever?  So using that money that you have just THIS YEAR, would not harm the plans for longevity.   Fair to say? 

Now, maybe those guys would be looking for a longer year deal....but the fact is their  paychecks for this year are exactly -0-.....and if they signed a just this year deal, maybe they could prove they still got it, and perhaps show that they deserve something longer term for next year and going forward.  (again, looking at Clay III...and seeing how long his pop and uncle played...he could have another 5 years) 

Maybe we reached out to Clay and Thomas.

 

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Doesn't that cost for this year drop off....and be available again for next year and beyond

We have "32.8" in cap space for one year but our salaries are only 2.5 under ongoing salary cap. So if that's a question... No.  Our ongoing cap space is no more than 2.5.

The 32.8 is a fantasy only good for one season.. once it's used, it's gone. So instead of thinking of it as "space" -- think of it as an ability to resign a few first-rounders [bonus can be taken in one season rather than spread out] that other teams don't have.  Note, of course: if that 2.5 remains unused through 2020... next season's "cap" would become 35.3! Oh, the humanity!

 

If you got a $50k one-time bonus from work, would your household budget assume you were going to get that bonus every year from now until you die?

 

"Cap Space" is an accounting gimmick; the metric of [ [2020 salary cap]-[2020 cap liabilities] ] is what you should look at.

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Schobert already getting scorched in the 1st Q tonight. One horsecollar as they RB was already past him for a 1st down and then old man Fitzpatrick ran around him 

on a late run up the middle. Looked pretty damn foolish on that play.

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53 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Schobert already getting scorched in the 1st Q tonight. One horsecollar as they RB was already past him for a 1st down and then old man Fitzpatrick ran around him 

on a late run up the middle. Looked pretty damn foolish on that play.

I was surprised at the call. Yes, Joe got hold of the collar, but he released it almost as soon as he took hold whereas most calls come when the defender uses the collar to drag the ball carrier to the ground.

Otherwise... yup... lotsa tackles after a few yards gained... although did have one TFL in the 2nd Qtr.

Weird to see in "47".

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On 9/23/2020 at 6:37 AM, Flugel said:

Me too.  I was VERY impressed with Gustin!

Coach Stefanski was just talking about him in an interview. I'm SO glad he made the team and we didn't keep Chad Thomas. That guy drove me NUTS and I was furious when we drafted him. 

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This is unfreaking believable. Greedy ruled out AGAIN and now Denzel Ward probably won't play with a random freaking groin injury. Coach said he's truly questionable, but I'm betting he's out because groin injuries take a while to heal and we'll definitely need Ward against Cowboys next week. Guess what THAT means? 

More Tavierre Thomas! AHHHHHH. 

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On 9/25/2020 at 6:58 AM, jiggins7919 said:

Coach Stefanski was just talking about him in an interview. I'm SO glad he made the team and we didn't keep Chad Thomas. That guy drove me NUTS and I was furious when we drafted him. 

This is just a guess but former University of Miami player (Alonzo Highsmith) who still has ties with the U - seemed to have a little influence about bringing in and/or keeping guys from that program.   Last year we had the following guys from that program in our training camp:

David Njoku (here before Highsmith)

Chad Thomas (this reach wasn't quite as bad as picking Austin Corbett at the top of round 2; but it was bad enough considering what other teams were getting in that round)

Vernon Olivier (12 starts in 2017, 11 starts in 2018, 10 starts in 2019,  already missed a start in 2020, best football in the rear view mirror?)

Ray Ray Armstrong - Did one of his parents design Gipper's cell phone? (After appearing in 9 games for us in 2018 - he got cut and played for a combined 6 games in 2019 for Dallas and New Orleans)

Sheldrick Redwine (No complaints from me about this guy.  Gives it all he's got, fundamentally sound tackler and gives us solid depth)

Duke Johnson (Once the level competition at his position became strong enough to challenge his role with the offense - it didn't bring out the best in him. He hired Drew Rosenhaus as his agent; and then he was traded during training camp.   He became one of a few our Exes living in Texas (the others were Fells and Hyde).

We also gave an undrafted STs Return prospect Damon Sheehy-Guiseppi a tryout.  I have to say even though it was just preseason - I'll remember his return for a TD and the excitement he brought to the team. Not a bad cup of coffee!

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Also a U player at the back end of our roster - claimed off waivers 9/6, a Stars 5th round pick last year - DL Joe Jackson. He played 31 snaps vs Cincy [and recovered a fumble] without being on the roster vs Baltimore - so at least a rotation guy who they trust enough to throw into the fire.

Could do a lot worse than Jackson, Vernon, Adrian Clayborn as your backup edges.. with Gustin starting, of course.

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9 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Except, I got a whole new cell phone.  A complete upgrade, a different brand.  And it still does it.   So I am thinking it  ain't my phone. 

Maybe it's that new Alexa Echo. 😂😂

I don't know about that!

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On 9/23/2020 at 5:12 PM, Tour2ma said:

Make it 3 on the wagon...

Kid played fast.

A read on Gustin’s combine testing I stumbled upon 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/ras-explains-the-emergence-of-porter-gustin-in-cleveland/

 

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10 hours ago, Flugel said:

We also gave an undrafted STs Return prospect Damon Sheehy-Guiseppi a tryout.  I have to say even though it was just preseason - I'll remember his return for a TD and the excitement he brought to the team. Not a bad cup of coffee!

Preseason game 1 last season... Familiar Team with lots of familiar names... 

 a Saturday night tune-up     Keenum/Haskins/Higgy/Mack Wilson... Sheehy...not a bad cup of coffee at all  Sheehy is signed in the XFL, with the NY Guardians.. #chase'ndreams

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3 hours ago, Flugel said:

Gips, that doesn't say "Made in Amityville" - does it?  

The Short Answer: iPhones Are Made in China

However, it's not that simple. Not only does Foxconn have factories around the world in countries including Thailand, South Korea,Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and the Czech Republic, but it's not the only company that assembles iPhones.

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  • 1 month later...
On 9/27/2020 at 12:31 PM, Kvoethe said:

Dumping Dorsey and Williams ruined any chance we had of becoming a winning football program.  No amount of 1st round picks will ever change that.  

This post is aging really well...lol

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