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Informal poll


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No bulshit if possible... Pick one.

1 Complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three weeks.

2 complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three months

3 complete and gradual reopening only when the number of cases is close to zero.

4 no reopening until there is a proven vaccine regardless of number of months

 

WSS

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8 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

No bulshit if possible... Pick one.

1 Complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three weeks.

2 complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three months

3 complete and gradual reopening only when the number of cases is close to zero.

4 no reopening until there is a proven vaccine regardless of number of months

No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...

  1. #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately.
  2. Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
  3. The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
  4. Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.

I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.

Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.

As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...

Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...

image.png.46414e68b14fd9ed52e507a1f6c11b45.png

 

Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...

... at least that's what she said... ;)

Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/

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5 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...

  1. #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately.
  2. Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
  3. The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
  4. Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.

I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.

Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.

As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...

Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...

image.png.46414e68b14fd9ed52e507a1f6c11b45.png

 

Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...

... at least that's what she said... ;)

Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/

Interesting Tour. Problem is- how much economic pain are we going to endure to minimize the deaths? 8 weeks? State unemployment funds depleted, and the restaurant businesses is kaput. I ran a few sims myself and pull everything off in two weeks you have herd immunity by August with around 1-2 million deaths. I'm not making the decision. 

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8 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...

  1. #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately
  2. Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
  3. The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
  4. Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.

I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.

Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.

As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...

Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...

image.png.46414e68b14fd9ed52e507a1f6c11b45.png

 

Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...

... at least that's what she said... ;)

Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/

I don't think complete and gradual are mutually exclusive whatsoever. I will complete your project for the next 3 weeks. That's complete and gradual. Maybe 30% reopening this week 30 more the next 30 the Third. Second auction could be  two weeks 2 weeks at another 2 weeks  double the time. End of June and end of July  are substantially different  given the consequences of the shutdown. Don't see the problem. And of course I have two selections that place slightly different conditions on them. Sure there are more. If you've got one, which I'm sure you have because you wanted to spend so much time bickering, go ahead and write it in. Hurricanes are a lot easier to predict. And the hurricane panic isn't as novel or profitable. I'm sure the political angle is it Dilly for the party out of power but be that as it may... option 3 and 4 are similar but not exactly case number at zero doesn't necessarily mean the virus is completely and utterly destroyed. Number four would say we never go back to normal as long as there is any threat of covid-19.

 I had one smart-ass option that I decided not to put in which would have broken my own rule against bullshit.

put again feel free to propose your own option.

WSS

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10 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...

  1. #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately.
  2. Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
  3. The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
  4. Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.

I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.

Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.

As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...

Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...

image.png.46414e68b14fd9ed52e507a1f6c11b45.png

 

Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...

... at least that's what she said... ;)

Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/

Shut up an do the poll.

So what do you think 1,2,3, or 4?

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20 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

No bulshit if possible... Pick one.

1 Complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three weeks.

2 complete and gradual reopening over the next two or three months

3 complete and gradual reopening only when the number of cases is close to zero.

4 no reopening until there is a proven vaccine regardless of number of months

 

WSS

Your poll is no good. Let me count the ways. You spelled bullshit wrong. No periods at the end of sentences 2 and 4, and you didn't begin sentences 2, 3, and 4 with capital letters.

 

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2 hours ago, Gorka said:

Shut up an do the poll.

So what do you think 1,2,3, or 4?

Not enough choices for the intelligent, so I guess you will be fine. 

Watch Georgia and now Texas in the next 6 weeks now that both have opened again as of today. At least Texas did not send kids back to school for the last month.

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Just now, TexasAg1969 said:

Not enough choices for the intelligent, so I guess you will be fine. 

Watch Georgia and now Texas in the next 6 weeks now that both have opened again as of today. At least Texas did not send kids back to school for the last month.

Like I said feel free to add your own option. I will save my smart answer until after the people have you given their opinions.

WSS

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13 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Not enough choices for the intelligent, so I guess you will be fine. 

Watch Georgia and now Texas in the next 6 weeks now that both have opened again as of today. At least Texas did not send kids back to school for the last month.

Just shut up and pick 4. You think DickHead is intelligent, do as he does.

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1 minute ago, Gorka said:

Just shut up and pick 4. You think DickHead is intelligent, do as he does.

Apparently reading comprehension is also a challenge.

12 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

5. Follow the science that trumpy's experts are providing. Opening up without massive testing is idiotic. Period.

 

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1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Not enough choices for the intelligent, so I guess you will be fine. 

Watch Georgia and now Texas in the next 6 weeks now that both have opened again as of today. At least Texas did not send kids back to school for the last month.

In Harris County, traffic deaths are still outpacing Covid 19 deaths.  What does that tell someone of your intellect?

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1 minute ago, hoorta said:

Never let an opportunity to bash Obama go to waste. 

said the Trump hater, Trump supporters hater, pro-illegal immigration because we are against it talking head. lol

There are plenty of outstanding reasons to bash obaMao commie -

none of the complaints on Pres Trump hold water. HE is keeping his promises. Your obaMao commie broke all of this.

Still support biden?

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15 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

said the Trump hater, Trump supporters hater, pro-illegal immigration because we are against it talking head. lol

There are plenty of outstanding reasons to bash obaMao commie -

none of the complaints on Pres Trump hold water. HE is keeping his promises. Your obaMao commie broke all of this.

Still support biden?

That's exactly what the Trump supporters believe as Gospel Cal, and I hate to tell you there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. But it's all "fake news".  

Yeah- you want to tell me how many years the republicans wanted to see Obama's birth certificate? So now it's SO unfair the democrats want to see Trump's tax returns. See what I mean- I can play both sides of the fence equally well.

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