Shelter-in-place Poll

[TexasAg1969]

4 hours ago, hoorta said:

No I didn't- at least I don't think I said anything like that.....   

Hmmmm.... my only calculation would run like this- 42,000 deaths in three months.  With nine more months in the year- equals about 160,000 deaths. Roughly 6% of the total deaths in the United States. Some here have pointed out the CDC wants listing covid as the primary cause of death even if it was just a contributing factor. RE: some of those nursing home deaths-  you can't list "old age" as a cause of death on a certificate.     And admit it- in some places- notably Ohio, the curve IS flattening....  I do think saying there's going to be a million dead is a major overreach. How many more covid deaths are acceptable? I don't know, you pick a number between one and a million. 

I'm sorry Ag- there's going to be more deaths when the country opens up. Preventable if we stayed locked down? Sure. You can stay bunkered down if you wish- but it's getting more apparent by the day- the general opinion is we've played the isolation game long enough, let's see what happens now. 

I'm not one of the sign waving zealots- but it hasn't stopped me from doing stuff that the good governor says is OK to do. Picked up a very nice 4 year old Bottled in Bond New Riff 100 proof 100% rye at the beverage store yesterday. I may start slamming it if Berry trades down tomorrow.   My only concession to covid is I wipe my credit card down with hand sanitizer and my hands every time I use it at the store. FWIW, I'm heading out now to pick up a prescription for my wife.  

 

So when do you cry Uncle then Larry? Name a figure. The million+ figure was the original guess with doing nothing. I don't think it gets there either.

Here is the problem the way I see it. Georgia is being very stupid about how they are reopening and it will show in about a month. They are the test case for the rest of the country except for perhaps some like Wyoming & Montana with small populations and much more open land. Reopening is inevitable but testing needs to go hand in hand as does opening a bit at a time while we track the results.

[hoorta]

8 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

for the most part, I believe here in Ohio we have done a great job. No overreach stupidity by our Governor (Republican, of course)...

I just heard on Hannity - on the radio - a prominent dr says this virus has morphed ? into different strains - the one in New York came from a worse one - from Europe - as compared to the not as bad one on the west coast.

30 different strains so far? That's what he said they are finding out.

I don't know - seems like it's going to be tough to come up with a vaccine.

It may be a natural virus, but it sure acts like a bio-weapon on the loose.

If covid is related to flu and cold viruses and morphs in a similar manner- Bluntly Cal- we're shit outta luck. we can only hope the morphed strains aren't as lethal, vaccines may confer some immunity. It by all means isn't a bio weapon on the loose- no country is going to release something like that on purpose. 

4 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

So when do you cry Uncle then Larry? Name a figure. The million+ figure was the original guess with doing nothing. I don't think it gets there either.

Here is the problem the way I see it. Georgia is being very stupid about how they are reopening and it will show in about a month. They are the test case for the rest of the country except for perhaps some like Wyoming & Montana with small populations and much more open land. Reopening is inevitable but testing needs to go hand in hand as does opening a bit at a time while we track the results.

Since you deferred, I will too.   The final number will be whatever happens. Ohio is planning a very gradual reopening.  My personal 0.02 as a best guess? We're going to find the symptomatic\infected cases ratio to 5% deaths is way high. 

[TexasAg1969]

6 hours ago, hoorta said:

If covid is related to flu and cold viruses and morphs in a similar manner- Bluntly Cal- we're shit outta luck. we can only hope the morphed strains aren't as lethal, vaccines may confer some immunity. It by all means isn't a bio weapon on the loose- no country is going to release something like that on purpose. 

Since you deferred, I will too.   The final number will be whatever happens. Ohio is planning a very gradual reopening.  My personal 0.02 as a best guess? We're going to find the symptomatic\infected cases ratio to 5% deaths is way high. 

Lets try a little math and be conservative. Lets assume worst case infection of say 1/5 of the US population for opening up too soon and it goes rampant again. Then lets just assume .01 death rate, half of your guess........again conservative. So 325,000,000 \ 5 =  65,000,000 X .01 = 650,000. That's a bit high so lets just divide it in half and assume .005 instead (now 1/4 of your guess). Now we have it down to 325,000. Well that's too many so take away 150,000 just to be arbitrary for those who show no symptoms. So 175,000. There's my final guess. And that is just far too many to take a chance for IMO. So testing is my final plea to the Moron in Chief. Otherwise the next 100,000 or so are on his stupidity for watching Fox news all day instead of doing this right.

[Westside Steve]

4 hours ago, hoorta said:

If covid is related to flu and cold viruses and morphs in a similar manner- Bluntly Cal- we're shit outta luck. we can only hope the morphed strains aren't as lethal, vaccines may confer some immunity. It by all means isn't a bio weapon on the loose- no country is going to release something like that on purpose. 

Since you deferred, I will too.   The final number will be whatever happens. Ohio is planning a very gradual reopening.  My personal 0.02 as a best guess? We're going to find the symptomatic\infected cases ratio to 5% deaths is way high. 

A lower actual percentage doesn't really support the agenda of those who skew these numbers.

WSS

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

A lower actual percentage doesn't really support the agenda of those who skew these numbers.

WSS

Then take a look at mine skewing it far lower above.

[Westside Steve]

44 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Then take a look at mine skewing it far lower above.

I took a look. Final guess then blah blah blah Fox News something something something

WSS

[OldBrownsFan]

There are two sides to this argument and both sides are right. This virus is worse, more contagious and more deadly than normal flu and we need to take extra precautions. On the other side if we allow the virus to take us into another Great Depression by sheltering in place too long you have to calculate the deaths over that as well as the misery that poverty like that will bring such as homelessness, food shortages, lack of jobs and income. We cannot keep printing money to finance a shelter in place. It is money we don't have as we already have a 23 trillion national debt. 

We need to have our health experts and economy experts in the same room and hammer out the best solution for both the health issues and economy issues and work out the best possible compromise solution.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

[Westside Steve]

I would disagree with the word extreme.

WSS

[TexasAg1969]

52 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

There are two sides to this argument and both sides are right. This virus is worse, more contagious and more deadly than normal flu and we need to take extra precautions. On the other side if we allow the virus to take us into another Great Depression by sheltering in place too long you have to calculate the deaths over that as well as the misery that poverty like that will bring such as homelessness, food shortages, lack of jobs and income. We cannot keep printing money to finance a shelter in place. It is money we don't have as we already have a 23 trillion national debt. 

We need to have our health experts and economy experts in the same room and hammer out the best solution for both the health issues and economy issues and work out the best possible compromise solution.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

Well with all those upvotes it looks like the closest thing to a consensus I've ever seen here.😁

[hoorta]

11 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Lets try a little math and be conservative. Lets assume worst case infection of say 1/5 of the US population for opening up too soon and it goes rampant again. Then lets just assume .01 death rate, half of your guess........again conservative. So 325,000,000 \ 5 =  65,000,000 X .01 = 650,000. That's a bit high so lets just divide it in half and assume .005 instead (now 1/4 of your guess). Now we have it down to 325,000. Well that's too many so take away 150,000 just to be arbitrary for those who show no symptoms. So 175,000. There's my final guess. And that is just far too many to take a chance for IMO. So testing is my final plea to the Moron in Chief. Otherwise the next 100,000 or so are on his stupidity for watching Fox news all day instead of doing this right.

I'll agree with your math- and hope it isn't right. BTW, I did mention 42k covid deaths in the first quarter- X4 equals around 168,000. But- MHO Ag, we can't afford to have the current restrictions in place for the rest of the year, unless you're willing to have something at least as bad as a 1930s style Depression. Even opening up the country in another week or two? It might be too late already to prevent it. National Restaurant Council posited there well could be a 10% failure in the industry. Dayton airport- down 95%. Cities heavily dependent on local income taxes (like Dayton for one) are up shit creek in a couple months. 

Here ya go... Ohio population 11.6 million. Unemployment claims approaching 1 million, damn near 1 out of 10 Ohioans are out of work.  That isn't sustainable. https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-news/unemployment-issues-continue-in-ohio-as-claims-near-1-million/ 

Unemployment funds on the national level will depleted fast, and Uncle Sam can't be printing up a few trillion dollars every month to keep things from totally collapsing.  If we have 10% of Ohio out of work- not hard to figure Ohio income tax revenue will be down at least 10% too- and unlike the Feds, states can't print money to bail themselves out of budget shortfalls.   

[Westside Steve]

11 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I'll agree with your math- and hope it isn't right. BTW, I did mention 42k covid deaths in the first quarter- X4 equals around 168,000. But- MHO Ag, we can't afford to have the current restrictions in place for the rest of the year, unless you're willing to have something at least as bad as a 1930s style Depression. Even opening up the country in another week or two? It might be too late already to prevent it. National Restaurant Council posited there well could be a 10% failure in the industry. Dayton airport- down 95%. Cities heavily dependent on local income taxes (like Dayton for one) are up shit creek in a couple months. 

Here ya go... Ohio population 11.6 million. Unemployment claims approaching 1 million, damn near 1 out of 10 Ohioans are out of work.  That isn't sustainable. https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-news/unemployment-issues-continue-in-ohio-as-claims-near-1-million/ 

Unemployment funds on the national level will depleted fast, and Uncle Sam can't be printing up a few trillion dollars every month to keep things from totally collapsing.  If we have 10% of Ohio out of work- not hard to figure Ohio income tax revenue will be down at least 10% too- and unlike the Feds, states can't print money to bail themselves out of budget shortfalls.   

Not to mention that with any virus highest numbers are in the winter and early spring.

If you have enough money you could buy a Tankc ventilator have your own lungs removed and not be afraid of catching it or pneumonia at all.

Safety First.

WSS

[hoorta]

2 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

Not to mention that with any virus highest numbers or in the winter and early spring.

If you have enough money you could buy a Tankc ventilator have your own lungs removed and not be afraid of catching it or pneumonia at all.

Safety First.

WSS

Ag's more on the personal safety side, I'm more on the economic safety side Steve.  From that excellent article OBF posted from the National review, and there's a link in the article with even more data that shows the true extent of the problem.

"No nation can afford to endure a lockdown until a vaccine is developed for the new coronavirus. But having a proper understanding of the virus’s past and present danger matters. Knowing that it is extremely unlikely that the threat will be gone once the first wave passes will help guide the government, businesses, and individuals to take precautions that will limit the virus’s death toll in the months to come."

Amen to the above....  

[Westside Steve]

4 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Ag's more on the personal safety side, I'm more on the economic safety side Steve.  From that excellent article OBF posted from the National review, and there's a link in the article with even more data that shows the true extent of the problem.

yes I agree with you and the National Review and I'm hoping realized my iron lung comment was facetious. I'm also saying that multiplying the numbers of disease during the flu season with the other four seasons of the year it's probably... Pick your own euphemism.

"No nation can afford to endure a lockdown until a vaccine is developed for the new coronavirus. But having a proper understanding of the virus’s past and present danger matters. Knowing that it is extremely unlikely that the threat will be gone once the first wave passes will help guide the government, businesses, and individuals to take precautions that will limit the virus’s death toll in the months to come."

Amen to the above....  

 

[hoorta]

43 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

yes I agree with you and the National Review and I'm hoping realized my iron lung comment was facetious. I'm also saying that multiplying the numbers of disease during the flu season with the other four seasons of the year it's probably... Pick your own euphemism.

I knew you were kidding Steve.    The only real hope for Ag to be 100% safe is to follow the procedures that were in place for "The Bubble Boy" if you remember him. Born with absolutely zero immune system. We'll keep you in a sterile environment, and irradiate your food before we pass it through a window.  

As I've been saying- some of us are less risk averse than others. With my mountaineering tag line- there's at least one time, and probably two where a wrong decision (or bad luck) and I would have wound up dead. 

If you're curious, the first was trying to do a traverse of Mount Whitecap over to Split Mountain where I violated the first two rules of mountaineering.

#1) Never climb alone.

#2) Never try to down climb something you haven't up climbed.  

I wound up in a drop off coulior on a ledge- the way out was another foot wide ledge a good six feet underneath me, with around 50 feet of air underneath that.  I thought about my next move for a good 10 minutes. Needless to say- if I had screwed it up, I wouldn't be talking to you now. 

The second was in the Tetons where I landed a 300+ pound boulder on my foot & wedged it, and miraculously didn't break anything. Fortunately, Nephew Joe Sherpa did a groundhog maneuver, and dug enough dirt from underneath said boulder to send it careening merrily down the mountain.    

[Westside Steve]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

I knew you were kidding Steve.    The only real hope for Ag to be 100% safe is to follow the procedures that were in place for "The Bubble Boy" if you remember him. Born with absolutely zero immune system. We'll keep you in a sterile environment, and irradiate your food before we pass it through a window.  

As I've been saying- some of us are less risk averse than others. With my mountaineering tag line- there's at least one time, and probably two where a wrong decision (or bad luck) and I would have wound up dead. 

If you're curious, the first was trying to do a traverse of Mount Whitecap over to Split Mountain where I violated the first two rules of mountaineering.

#1) Never climb alone.

#2) Never try to down climb something you haven't up climbed.  

I wound up in a drop off coulior on a ledge- the way out was another foot wide ledge a good six feet underneath me, with around 50 feet of air underneath that.  I thought about my next move for a good 10 minutes. Needless to say- if I had screwed it up, I wouldn't be talking to you now. 

The second was in the Tetons where I landed a 300+ pound boulder on my foot & wedged it, and miraculously didn't break anything. Fortunately, Nephew Joe Sherpa did a groundhog maneuver, and dug enough dirt from underneath said boulder to send it careening merrily down the mountain.    

 frankly I don't think many people that are like tex have much concern as to risk versus economy etc etc. I think they've decided to view the entire thing as a wedge for their stupid political campaigns. I truly believe that if Trump had come out and said that he thinks the country should be shut down until 2021 they'd be screaming about  that and demand a return to business as usual first thing in the morning. I've mentioned dozens of times about all the things people die from that we do absolutely nothing about. Why? Because doing something about them would be inconvenient and we don't care about human life unless it's politically expedient

WSS