Grading a Draft?

[The Gipper]

As you know, as soon as the first round is complete, and certainly after the end of it, pundits will come off with their "Draft Grades"  of  each team, and saying who did the best and who did the worst.    But, then they will come up with the proviso:  "Well, you really can't judge a draft until  3-5 years later"   Right?

Well....lets do that.     Let's look back and try to assess some kind of evaluation to any particular teams draft.    The one way that  I will look at and try to evaluate a draft is by looking at the PFR's   Career Production Avg.     I have simply added up and combined all the CA numbers for all the players drafted by a particular team for the year   2015,  to see which teams came out on top, and on the bottom.   These are pure raw  accumulative numbers for each team's draftees of that year.  It is highly possible/probable that some of these players did not do the "producing" for the team that traded them.

But, herewith is that data:

2015  Team Draftees Accumulated Career Production Average:

Top Ten .....teams with "best drafts of 2015

#1  Minnesota.....163  pts

#2. Tampa Bay.....155

#3 Kansas City.....151

#4  New England 134 pts

#5. Washington   124 pts

#6. Rams (then in St. L)   118 pts

#7. Arizona  107 pts

#8. Atlanta   106 pts

#9.  Cleveland   104 pts

#10.  San Francisco   96 pts

Bottom Dwellers, teams with worst drafts of 2015

32.  Cincinnati  32 pts

31.  NY Jets    49 pts

30.  Pittsburgh  53 pts.

29. Buffalo  54 pts

28. Denver  58 pts. 

 

 

 

[The Gipper]

Notes:

A. Top contributors to the #1  Vikings  were  Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter,  Eric Kendricks

B. Top contributors to Browns  #9 spot were:  Danny Shelton, Duke Johnson, Cam Erving,  Nate Orchard....NONE still with the team. 

C.  Top overall performers from that draft... per  this stat were:     1. Jameis Winston  2. Marcus Peters  3. Todd Gurley  4. Marcus Mariota  5. Kendricks 6. Hunter,  7. Bernardick McKinney   8. Diggs.  

D. Using another measurement  top players were:  Amari Cooper...4 Pro Bowls;  

[The Gipper]

Herewith is the Data for the Grading of the  2016  NFL Draft.

Teams that did the "Best":  Top 10

1. Dallas Cowboys    169 pts     (Zeke/Dak top producers)

2 . Tenn Titans  122 pts       (top contributor was Jack Conklin.....now a Brown

3. Baltimore  115 pts

4. New England  114 pts

5. Cleveland Browns  110 pts    Schobert, Ogbah, Nassib top producers....NONE any longer with the team.

6. Chicago Bears  109 pts

7. Jacksonville  107 pts

8. T  Atlanta  104 pts

8.T Detroit  104

10.  Philadelphia   103 pts

Bottom Dwellers  "Worst Drafts of 2016": 

32. Arizona    26 pts

31. Minnesota  31 pts

30. Buffalo  40 pts

29. Washington  41 pts

28. Tampa Bay  42 pts. 

[The Gipper]

Top Performers  per  PFR  CA  to come out of   2016 draft  (in order):

1. Dak Prescott

2. Michael Thomas

3. Zeke Elliott

4. Tyreek Hill

5. Carson Wentz

6. Jared Goff

7. Ronnie Stanley

8. Jalen Ramsey

9. DeForest Buckner  

10. Joe Thuney

And, note this:   Players from 2016 with most Pro Bowl appearances:

Hill:  4;  Ramsey/Thomas/Zeke  3;   Dak/Goff  2.....plus   2 for Joey Bosa....and 2 for....Austin Hooper!

[The Gipper]

Here are the numbers for the Final Year that I will do:    3 years ago....2017 draft.

The Top Ten  "Best" Drafts of 2017:

1.  New Orleans   (by far)  132 pts.  

2. Buffalo   86 pts

3. Houston  83 pts   (led by Watson)

4. LA  Chargers    82 pts

5. San Francisco  81 pts

6. Chicago  78 pts  

7.T   Kansas City  77 pts

7T. Minnesota  77 pts

9T.  Cleveland   76 pts    (Garrett)

9T  Pittsburgh  76 pts. 

Worst Drafts of 2017:

32. New England  14 pts

31T. Denver 31 pts

31T. Oakland  31 pts

29. Atlanta  36 pts

28. Arizona  39 pts. 

[The Gipper]

Top Individual Producers  from 2017 Draft:

1. Alvin Kamara   N.O.

2. Patrick Mahomes  KC

3. Ryan Ramczyk  N.O.

4. Christian McCaffrey  Carolina

5. Deshaun Watson   Hou.

6. TJ Ward   Pitt

7. TreDavious White   Buffalo

8. Eddie Jackson   Chicago

9. Jamal Adams NY Jets

10.  Kareem Hunt   KC

[The Gipper]

One Final Metric:    

Here are the Top 5 teams with the most player Production over the course of the three years documented here:  2015/16/17:

1. Kansas City   330 pts      (and it has paid off apparently.....defending Super Bowl champs)

2. New Orleans Saints  318 pts   with 3 playoff appearances, including  Conf title game.

3. Cleveland Browns   290 pts.     and not a sniff at the playoff......includes a 1-31 run in there.

4. Dallas Cowboys   281 pts.    2 playoffs,  1 win

5. Minnesota Vikings   271 pts.   3 playoff appearances   including  one Conf. title game

So.....What is wrong with this picture?

And here are the  teams with the worst draft record over that 3 year period:

32.  Oakland Raiders   157 pts

31. Cincinnati Bengals  170 pts

30.  Arizona Cardinals  172 pts

29. Denver Broncos  175 pts

28. NY Jets  176 pts 

[darren15]

A draft is also an opinion.... I have seen players in some drafts mocked in the 2nd round that others rank in the 6th....its like FA,  The Browns Hooper move  got an A grade from one grader I seen and a C- from another

[The Gipper]

7 minutes ago, darren15 said:

A draft is also an opinion.... I have seen players in some drafts mocked in the 2nd round that others rank in the 6th....its like FA,  The Browns Hooper move  got an A grade from one grader I seen and a C- from another

But what I have given here  is not about mock drafts or projections, but is a history of performance....if you put any credence into the PFR CA stat.  

If one is not down with  this method of attempting to "grade a draft"...then by all means show an alternate method. 

[The Gipper]

 I guess I will ask this again, or formulate the question better:     Giving some credibility to this metric  which concludes that the Cleveland Browns over that 3 year period  acquired players in those 3 drafts that  have show, as a group, to be the third best/most productive players in the NFL,   how has this team been such a shitshow over that period compared to the likes of the Saints/Vikings/Chief/Cowboys  who all have had multiple playoff appearances?

Is it because, in fact, they have gotten rid of EVERY player they took in two of those drafts?   Was getting rid of a lot of those guys a mistake?  If the production numbers are fair, we can't say that it was poor talent evaluation, theoretically.  

Absolute piss poor coaching.....Hue/Freddie, is, I believe a major, major part of it.   Can it be just that? 

Can another major  factor be that while those players at those positions produced fairly well....the one position that did not was QB, as we did not really have one.   (QBs drafted:   Kizer/Kessler) 

Does it boil down to just that:  bad coach/bad QB.....but decent other players?