Left Tackle - Flugel Faves and Hopefuls

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

Nothing wrong with Ward I even suggest he’s probably headed for a massive deal.  Can we pay him that deal?

And He appeared better in 2018 than 2019. 
 

Okudah has been nothing but fabulous at OSU when he took over for Ward against USC in Cotton Bowl when Ward decided to sit it out. 
 

it could come down to Okudah for 4 years or Ward 2 years

 

It might not come down to that at all if we move on from Baker.

Bird in the hand....     Point being, drafting a CB that high shouldn't be to replace one you might just expect to lose down the road (at best) That isn't maximizing pick value.  Why not address immediate positions of need meeting at the intersection of BPA and target promising development later in the draft?

[SdBacker80]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

It might not come down to that at all if we move on from Baker.

Bird in the hand....     Point being, drafting a CB that high shouldn't be to replace one you might just expect to lose down the road (at best) That isn't maximizing pick value.  Why not address immediate positions of need meeting at the intersection of BPA and target promising development later in the draft?

I hope my #1 overall QB is the guy or we have bigger problems so yes I’d have a scenario (cap in mind) that I’m paying him like a franchise QB.

If for some strange reason Okudah drops out of the Top 5.  I’m making a call to #6.  I’m not living out fear necessarily that Ward leaves or his hammy keeps him out almost half the year.   But I know I need two guys ( I don’t think too highly of our CB position group) and maybe I view Okudah and a few others well above some of these RT trying to play LT.  I was highly critical of the Browns defense the last half of 2019.  We have Myles back we still have a ways to go IMO so I'm saying Defense is a need in general especially disrupting the passer or WRs.   

If we stay at 10 - considering BPA and Need I’d be more than happy with Thomas or Jones.  I think Jones in a trade back is ideal.

Im hearing a lot of the Browns may settle on the 3rd or 4th tackle at 10. “Just take a tackle and be done with it”.  Honestly I don’t see 3 or 4 tackles worthy of a top 10 pick- and I'd guess that Browns may have 1st round grades on some and 2nd on others.   

So we all need to potentially brace ourselves if we don't take a tackle.  

[tiamat63]

1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said:

I hope my #1 overall QB is the guy or we have bigger problems so yes I’d have a scenario (cap in mind) that I’m paying him like a franchise QB.

If for some strange reason Okudah drops out of the Top 5.  I’m making a call to #6.  I’m not living out fear necessarily that Ward leaves or his hammy keeps him out almost half the year.   But I know I need two guys ( I don’t think too highly of our CB position group) and maybe I view Okudah and a few others well above some of these RT trying to play LT.  I was highly critical of the Browns defense the last half of 2019.  We have Myles back we still have a ways to go IMO so I'm saying Defense is a need in general especially disrupting the passer or WRs.   

If we stay at 10 - considering BPA and Need I’d be more than happy with Thomas or Jones.  I think Jones in a trade back is ideal.

Im hearing a lot of the Browns may settle on the 3rd or 4th tackle at 10. “Just take a tackle and be done with it”.  Honestly I don’t see 3 or 4 tackles worthy of a top 10 pick- and I'd guess that Browns may have 1st round grades on some and 2nd on others.   

So we all need to potentially brace ourselves if we don't take a tackle.  

 

Sadly hope is not a plan.   The idea already has to be in mind for this front office with a several year plan involving helping Baker now, and then determining if he is our long term solution.  When the draft is over, roster settled and coaches adjusted and ready on the eve of the season,  then can they  are allowed to "hope".   Because at that point, short of an in-season trade, there is little else they can do.

I may not agree with your reasoning, but it is sound.  Essentially saying you elevate Okudah's drafting above positions of need based on elite play and not being overly fond of our current crop of DB's.   That's fair.

Taking any position "just to be done with it" is how GM's wind up drafting a Blaine Gabbert and anchoring him to their career.    So I would hope and trust that Barry isn't just drafting a tackle for the sake of addressing the need.  That is a fools strategy and the complete opposite of what I would do.   As of right now, I only value 2 true LT's in the 1st round.  Andrew Thomas and my luke-warm current feeling on Josh Jones.

But if the Browns have a plan to address the position in the 2nd or 3rd round, I would be ok with that.  However I won't be overly thrilled by Simmons, 10 the assets netted from a trade down had better blow my fucking mind and I'm hoping Matt Peart is in our plans.

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Bird in the hand....     Point being, drafting a CB that high shouldn't be to replace one you might just expect to lose down the road (at best) That isn't maximizing pick value.  Why not address immediate positions of need meeting at the intersection of BPA and target promising development later in the draft?

What percentage of time do teams put 3 CBs on the field these days? Given how thin we are at Safety, doesn't at least one of our hypothetical CB trio add value there as well?

If you don't see "elite" when you see Okudah, then your position is perfectly understandable. Sd and I do... so our position, if not our player evaluation, should be easy to appreciate as well. Add that at least in my case I believe I know where to tab OT value in the next round... add to that Ward's injury history... add to that lingering questions about Greedy's performance level... and Okudah makes sense.

Pay? There are positions you pay in this league and those you do not. CB is one of the ones you do... at least on one side. Ones we are paying now that we won't down the road include our #2 WR.

 

As for Simmons.. Flugs made the most compelling case for him I've seen... and yet I am still unswayed. Reading between his lines I still see the argument I raised and you amplified weeks ago. Namely he's a versatile prospect who will have to be used that way to maximize his value. A defense will have to be designed around him to do and that's a huge investment better made by a franchise not lead by a young coaching staff.

 

EDIT: Well... lol... had I elected to view your new post as I typed the above... I could have saved a little time.

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

What percentage of time do teams put 3 CBs on the field these days? Given how thin we are at Safety, doesn't at least one of our hypothetical CB trio add value there as well?

If you don't see "elite" when you see Okudah, then your position is perfectly understandable. Sd and I do... so our position, if not our player evaluation, should be easy to appreciate as well. Add that at least in my case I believe I know where to tab OT value in the next round... add to that Ward's injury history... add to that lingering questions about Greedy's performance level... and Okudah makes sense.

Pay? There are positions you pay in this league and those you do not. CB is one of the ones you do... at least on one side. Ones we are paying now that we won't down the road include our #2 WR.

 

As for Simmons.. Flugs made the most compelling case for him I've seen... and yet I am still unswayed. Reading between his lines I still see the argument I raised and you amplified weeks ago. Namely he's a versatile prospect who will have to be used that way to maximize his value. A defense will have to be designed around him to do and that's a huge investment better made by a franchise not lead by a young coaching staff.

 

EDIT: Well... lol... had I elected to view your new post as I typed the above... I could have saved a little time.

- What percentage is nickel with 3 CB's?  Not sure, but nickel is 60-65% of your snaps. Whether it's big nickel or not.  So I would expect our thin safety depth to be addressed in the coming draft.

- Okudah.  When I see him, I think of Nnamdi.  And I did love me some Nnamdi.   But I have to ask myself, at the end of the day, what will be more impactful for this team?  Securing the ends on the Oline or adding another corner? Do we want to give Baker every chance to succeed? Then if the best LT in the draft drops to you, common sense would be to take him.  I do believe Jeff will be a good player in the NFL.  But my weighing the cost vs Andrew Thomas?  I feel like AT wins that battle in my mind.    Jury is out on Greedy and I'm willing to give him time based on the fact that our previous DC's pension for his defenses being bitch-made didn't help. 

- I'm not sold on Simmons as a will backer over Kenneth Murray.   Not on an every down basis going from working between the tackles, processing everything at game speed and then executing.  It's a different monster than floating further back, playing off a hash or split out over a slot.   And he is another player that has made his bones being the most physically gifted on the field.   I don't see the next Derwin James and I'm hard pressed to find a comparison outside of Buccannon.  Whom nobody would call a top 10 pick now.   (Mark Barron, anyone?)

 

 

-

[Flugel]

7 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

I explained my rationale behind Okudah IF he falls to a spot where we don’t have to mortgage our future to get him. 

When Baker returns to 2018 form (fingers crossed) And gets paid his next contract and Myles gets paid how can we afford Denzel Ward?  And Do we want pay him???

Okudah can be on a Rookie deal for the next at least the next three/four years.  He’s better than Ward too.

 

You explained it twice now; and it still doesn't make sense to draft Okudah when we're trying to find 2 new starters at OLB, a starter at LT and a possibly starter at Safety.  And I already covered our depth at corner (2 former 1st round picks, 1 second round pick and Mitchell).

I'm not worrying about renewing contracts 1-2 years from now. As of today, Cleveland has the most cap space available of 32 NFL teams with $40,175,174.  We'll have the cap room - we always do. 

With the rookie salary cap, the bang for the buck isn't exclusive to Okudah. It can be just as pertinent to an elite LT or a stud OLBer or whoever our scouts/FO deems gotta have at #10. 

[SdBacker80]

33 minutes ago, Flugel said:

You explained it twice now; and it still doesn't make sense to draft Okudah when we're trying to find 2 new starters at OLB, a starter at LT and a possibly starter at Safety.  And I already covered our depth at corner (2 former 1st round picks, 1 second round pick and Mitchell).

I'm not worrying about renewing contracts 1-2 years from now. As of today, Cleveland has the most cap space available of 32 NFL teams with $40,175,174.  We'll have the cap room - we always do. 

With the rookie salary cap, the bang for the buck isn't exclusive to Okudah. It can be just as pertinent to an elite LT or a stud OLBer or whoever our scouts/FO deems gotta have at #10. 

Yes you did you are taking about Kevin Johnson a former 1st rounder on a one year deal and Greedy who was selected by Dorsey.  
 

 

 

 

[Tour2ma]

2 hours ago, Flugel said:

We'll have the cap room - we always do. 

Pretty sure that's what the LAR GM told Kroenke...

 

For as long as we can remember we've had but one franchise player... Joe T. And he was a bargain most of his years.

We hope that in the not-too-distant future we will be having to pay...

• $30mm per year to a QB... up about $21mm/yr
• $24mm/yr to an Edge... up about $14mm/yr
• $16mm/yr to a CB... up about $8mm/yr

That plus the rookie class tab pretty much eats your cap cushion up PDQ...

Sure we've got a couple big checks we will stop writing and some dead money to clear, but then there are more positions to fill, some with expensive UFAs, and more rookie deals to extend.

[Flugel]

5 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

I'm not sold on Simmons as a will backer over Kenneth Murray.   Not on an every down basis going from working between the tackles, processing everything at game speed and then executing.  It's a different monster than floating further back, playing off a hash or split out over a slot.   And he is another player that has made his bones being the most physically gifted on the field.   I don't see the next Derwin James and I'm hard pressed to find a comparison outside of Buccannon.  Whom nobody would call a top 10 pick now.   (Mark Barron, anyone?)

I don't think they're going to play the same position in the NFL any more than they played the same position in college.  And fwiw, Simmons only played Safety in 2017 before he transitioned to OLB in 2018 and 2019. 

We've discussed Murray recently and nothing has changed. He's the top rated ILB in this draft.  Love this kid. I think I also mentioned - I see him as a bigger version of Mike Johnson (who I adored as a MLB for us). Murray had a 155 tackles in 2018 and another 102 tackles in 2019 as well as 77 tackles in 14 games in 2017.  Killer good against the run.  So, what will prevent him from being drafted within the top 10 IMO?  He only had 6 pass break ups in 3 years with no INTs, which seems a little disappointing considering that covering a hook zone shouldn't be difficult for a great athlete/instinctive LBer.  In the NFL, you have to be instinctive vrs the pass too.

In contrast, Simmons is an OLB that broke-up 13 passes with 4 INTs in the last 2 years (he also forced 4 fumbles in this span). Within those numbers is a guy that can either cover the slot or a RB or mirror a TE. He can also blitz and give you 8 sacks.   And in 2019, he had the same 102 tackles Murray had. His ability in pass D as it projects for today's NFL is why I see him getting drafted before Murray and somewhere up in the top 10. Murray will also get drafted in the first round - most likely by a team that will play him at ILB/MLB. 

As you, Tour and SDB80 have mentioned - Simmons doesn't light everyone's fire in here. And that's okay.  I enjoy the conversation it gives us.

[The Gipper]

9 minutes ago, Flugel said:

I don't think they're going to play the same position in the NFL any more than they played the same position in college.  And fwiw, Simmons only played Safety in 2017 before he transitioned to OLB in 2018 and 2019. 

We've discussed Murray recently and nothing has changed. He's the top rated ILB in this draft.  Love this kid. I think I also mentioned - I see him as a bigger version of Mike Johnson (who I adored as a MLB for us). Murray had a 155 tackles in 2018 and another 102 tackles in 2019 as well as 77 tackles in 14 games in 2017.  Killer good against the run.  So, what will prevent him from being drafted within the top 10 IMO?  He only had 6 pass break ups in 3 years with no INTs, which seems a little disappointing considering that covering a hook zone shouldn't be difficult for a great athlete/instinctive LBer.  In the NFL, you have to be instinctive vrs the pass too.

In contrast, Simmons is an OLB that broke-up 13 passes with 4 INTs in the last 2 years (he also forced 4 fumbles in this span). Within those numbers is a guy that can either cover the slot or a RB or mirror a TE. He can also blitz and give you 8 sacks.   And in 2019, he had the same 102 tackles Murray had. His ability in pass D as it projects for today's NFL is why I see him getting drafted before Murray and somewhere up in the top 10. Murray will also get drafted in the first round - most likely by a team that will play him at ILB/MLB. 

As you, Tour and SDB80 have mentioned - Simmons doesn't light everyone's fire in here. And that's okay.  I enjoy the conversation it gives us.

Most Mock drafts that I have seen do not put  Murray into the Top Ten picks. 

Do you or anyone,  think he may be worthy enough to take with our #10  (if the Browns decide for some reason that he is a better pick than any of the LTs left?)  

Some, most mocks  don't have Murray going until the mid 20s.....some have Patrick Queen going ahead of him.   A couple that I looked at even had him in late 2d, early 3rd round.

Not sure what to make of all that. 

[Flugel]

2 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

Yes you did you are taking about Kevin Johnson a former 1st rounder on a one year deal and Greedy who was selected by Dorsey.  
 

Believe it or not, I already named Kevin Johnson in my reply to you on page 4.

I think the best tandem I've seen in recent years (as short as it was) was Terrence Mitchell and Denzel Ward in 2018.  The trouble was, we couldn't keep them both healthy at the same time. I like our depth at this position in comparison to other areas on the defense.

 

[Flugel]

5 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Most Mock drafts that I have seen do not put  Murray into the Top Ten picks. 

Do you or anyone,  think he may be worthy enough to take with our #10  (if the Browns decide for some reason that he is a better pick than any of the LTs left?)  

Some, most mocks  don't have Murray going until the mid 20s.....some have Patrick Queen going ahead of him.   A couple that I looked at even had him in late 2d, early 3rd round.

Not sure what to make of all that. 

I think he'll go in round 1 in the area you see him going in the mocks (in the 20s).  I've seen a couple mocks that have the Ratbirds taking him.  That would suck!

He's a player I like quite a bit.   He seems more like somebody we could draft if we traded back more so than at #10 overall.  Anyone that reminds me of Mike Johnson gets 2 thumbs up. 

[The Gipper]

21 minutes ago, Flugel said:

I think he'll go in round 1 in the area you see him going in the mocks (in the 20s).  I've seen a couple mocks that have the Ratbirds taking him.  That would suck!

He's a player I like quite a bit.   He seems more like somebody we could draft if we traded back more so than at #10 overall.  Anyone that reminds me of Mike Johnson gets 2 thumbs up. 

What about trading up?    Though I don't think I would want to have the Browns pull what they did for Brady Quinn by giving up their first rounder next year.   But that is probably what it would have to take. 

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, Flugel said:

I think he'll go in round 1 in the area you see him going in the mocks (in the 20s). 

Agree... I have traded back up into the bottom of the 1st in a few sims to take Murray, but have to dip into future years picks to do so...

Something that would not be necessary with the ability to deal players... 😮

[Tour2ma]

And as if on cue...

The Sporting News just  put out an article entitled...

The 7 safest NFL Draft picks in the 2020 class, from Chase Young to Jonathan Taylor

Tucked into the 5th spot was Mr. Murray.

Now I need to find their article on how such safe picks can be ranked so low on their "big board".

Something seems amiss...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-7-safest-nfl-draft-picks-in-the-2020-class-from-chase-young-to-jonathan-taylor/ar-BB12zjw3?ocid=spartandhp

[Flugel]

9 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

And as if on cue...

The Sporting News just  put out an article entitled...

The 7 safest NFL Draft picks in the 2020 class, from Chase Young to Jonathan Taylor

Tucked into the 5th spot was Mr. Murray.

Now I need to find their article on how such safe picks can be ranked so low on their "big board".

Something seems amiss...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-7-safest-nfl-draft-picks-in-the-2020-class-from-chase-young-to-jonathan-taylor/ar-BB12zjw3?ocid=spartandhp

I see that and I like it. I also see they have Simmons at #2. But in reading their praise for Simmons - it's almost like a "Warning: this guy needs to go to the right DC/situation."  I think that kind of sums up your reluctance and that of others about him in here.  If they're gonna Carnell Lake the guy to a Safety position - I would join you and others with the reluctance.  Clemson knew what they were doing and he ended up the Butkus Award winner for putting him where he could be most impactful his last 2 years.

There's a draft guide I buy every year that lists the stats each prospect compiles.  The 2 things that surprised me the most about Murray (unless it's a misprint) - for a 3 year starter he only had 1 forced fumble way back in 2017.   That seems odd considering it was his first year starting with his smallest volume of tackles (77). Then he had 155 tackles in 2018 and 102 in 2019 with no forced fumbles?  He had no INTs in his 3 year career with only 6 pass break ups; and this is what I'm guessing is giving people a reluctance to project this Sooner - sooner.

The irony of it all is whenever I watched Oklahoma play - the last thing I thought of/cared about was "how's he doing against the pass?"  NFL scouts have to care about this in today's game though. This is why I would favor Simmons over him for us even though it's a frozen yogurt to ice cream comparison in terms of what position each guy appears to be best wired for ahead.

The scary thing is we have to find 2 new starters at OLB, 1 new starter at LT, and we probably need to find 1 more new starter at Safety when there's usually only so many rounds that deliver immediate starters.  I can't wait to see what we do next week...

[Flugel]

On 3/31/2020 at 8:14 AM, Flugel said:

I could definitely see this shaking out.  As you know, I was already worried the NYG would go LT at #4.  You brought up a very good point about Solder's dead money. But, if he can't stay healthy enough to be or play like a starter -  lyrics remind us "it's sad to belong to someone else when the right one comes along."  They have a 1st round QB investment they have to protect so I can see them eating that Solder contract. The good thing about drafting a guy vrs paying FA prices - the rookie contract is usually cap friendlier.  That is, unless you're the NYG that could be railroading themselves into pay both of these contracts.   This is a good lesson to all those thinking we need to pay big FA money for the worn and torn.  Washington is asking way too much for a Trent Williams trade for a player who is close to the age Joe Thomas was when NFL wear and tear = retirement. FA Jason Peters is about 6 years older than that.

I've also recently mentioned in various threads I could see TB trading up since my drive into work every day has a lot of radio discussion hopes of them trading up to protect the blind side of Brady.  One caller said "they didn't protect the blindside of Jameis."  And the host asked "Which blind side are you talking about? Jameis has a lot of them."  Seeing how much they wanted Brady - the trade up in the mock draft makes a lot of sense especially for a team that gave up a lot of sacks and QB pressures in 2019.

This was a reply to Tour (above) back when he listed some trades (Tampa and Carolina) where Tampa selected Wirfs with it at #7 overall. 

Interestingly enough, on the NFL Channel today the host asked Daniel Jeremiah to come up with a trade he thinks is possible.  He said he could see Tampa aiming to jump ahead of Cleveland by trading with Jax (at #9 overall) to select his favorite LT Mekhi Becton.  Having said that, back on January 29th DJ had us drafting Andrew Thomas at #10 overall with the NYG drafting Becton at #4, SD drafting Wills at #6, Arizona drafting Wirfs at #8 and he listed him as an OG with Jax drafting Simmons as a Safety at #9.  DJ's most recent mock draft 3.0 he has the NYG drafting Wirfs as an OT at #4, Arizona drafting Wills at #8, Jax drafting Becton at #9, Cleveland drafting Simmons at #10 as a LB.

He changed the positions of Wirfs and Simmons in his most recent mock from his one on 1/29.

[Tour2ma]

Flugs...

Have you been neglecting your Inbox?

[Tour2ma]

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/what-contract-extensions-could-be-on-the-horizon-for-the-browns.html

On 4/13/2020 at 10:37 PM, Tour2ma said:

We hope that in the not-too-distant future we will be having to pay...

• $30mm per year to a QB... up about $21mm/yr
• $24mm/yr to an Edge... up about $14mm/yr
• $16mm/yr to a CB... up about $8mm/yr

As I've always said.. I'd rather be lucky and good...

Quote

What contract extensions could be on the horizon for the Browns?

By Dan Labbe, cleveland.com  Today 5:00 AM

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Panthers and running back Christian McCaffrey agreed to a rich extension this week. It reignited the debate about paying running backs big money, but it also got me thinking about the Browns, the extensions they have coming and what those might resemble.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/what-contract-extensions-could-be-on-the-horizon-for-the-browns.html

 

[Flugel]

5 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Flugs...

Have you been neglecting your Inbox?

Thanks for the heads-up!  

[Flugel]

On 4/2/2020 at 11:26 AM, Flugel said:

My order of upper faves has changed and it probably won't be the last time. 

1. Andrew Thomas

2. Jedrick Wills Jr

3. Josh Jones

4. Tristan Wirfs

5. Mekhi Becton

3rd and Final List of my favorite LEFT Tackle prospects...

1. Andrew Thomas

2. Jedrick Wills Jr (Joe Thomas' selection for us at #10 over Andrew Thomas in today's NFL Channel Mock Draft.)

3. Josh Jones

4. Matt Peart

5. Alex Taylor (I'm 5'9" unless I'm arguing with Zombo - and this guy is a foot taller than me)

This is only my thinking at a fraction of the research that our FO and Scouts have put into it.  If the first 2 or 3 are gone at #10 - we can go BPA or trade back.  If we trade back, we may still have a shot at Jones in round 1.  If we miss him, we can take BPA or trade back again.  Shortly after round 1 (and/or with a short trade back), we should have a great chance to draft Peart. Later on, we can go after Taylor if we haven't landed a LT yet.  If we do either of the last 2 choices - this plan should include us signing FA LT Jason Peters.

I think Tristan Wirfs will be an excellent OL - I'm just not sure if he'll be a RT or OG yet.   He's the only OL that started as a true freshman since Ferentz arrived at Iowa. I also like what I've read/heard about the work ethic, which helps explain the results he achieved at the Indy Combines. 

Unfortunately, I just learned some of the reason PFF is less than thrilled with Becton.  I was willing to swim against the current for him; but I'm not willing to go kid on the yellow raft in shark infested waters (ie; the movie Jaws) for him.