Dewine has done a great job!!

[Kvoethe]

All crap aside...and I havent been a fan of his...I like how he has been a leader and locked stuff down.  

Kudos to Mike!!

[OldBrownsFan]

I was never a fan of DeWine's either but he has been proven to be right on his coronavirus response. I wasn't sure about what seemed to be a quick decision to close dine in restaurants on a "guesstimate" we had 100,000 people with the coronavirus already in Ohio. Now that we are testing we are finding there were many more people infected in Ohio than most of us realized. So good job Dewine for taking quick action.

[Westside Steve]

On 3/25/2020 at 6:54 AM, Kvoethe said:

All crap aside...and I havent been a fan of his...I like how he has been a leader and locked stuff down.  

Kudos to Mike!!

First of all I am hoping he's not acting out of anything except what he believes is right. Personally I think he, and others, are overreacting and the overall reaction from himself and others has caused an unnecessary negative impact on the country.

Still I'm more blaming the sensationalism of the news media for keeping the panic stirredp than him.

WSS

[OldBrownsFan]

7 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

First of all I am hoping he's not acting out of anything except what he believes is right. Personally I think he, and others, are overreacting and the overall reaction from himself and others has caused an unnecessary negative impact on the country.

Still I'm more blame the sensationalism of the news media for keeping the panic stirredp than him.

WSS

I think DeWine is acting out of what he believes is right. On that part I don't question his motives.

I question the motives of others at times like Cuomo of New York blaming Trump for lack of ventilators when He knows very well our govt can't immediately ship him 30,000 ventilators we don't currently have. I was glad to see Trump call him out for his decision a few years ago not to buy more ventilators so he has no business blaming others for a lack of ventilators.

[Kvoethe]

3 hours ago, OldBrownsFan said:

I think DeWine is acting out of what he believes is right. On that part I don't question his motives.

I question the motives of others at times like Cuomo of New York blaming Trump for lack of ventilators when He knows very well our govt can't immediately ship him 30,000 ventilators we don't currently have. I was glad to see Trump call him out for his decision a few years ago not to buy more ventilators so he has no business blaming others for a lack of ventilators.

Trump could cure this tomorrow and still get blamed for something...its kinda funny how creatively they spin stuff.

[Tour2ma]

5 hours ago, Kvoethe said:

All crap aside...and I havent been a fan of his...I like how he has been a leader and locked stuff down.  

Kudos to Mike!!

Agree... and also find myself giving high marks to Greg Abbott, my Gov. down here...

 

Lt Gov? Not so much...

[hammertime]

DeWine needs to take a break.

 

hes liking the attention a wee bit too much.

[hoorta]

8 hours ago, Kvoethe said:

All crap aside...and I havent been a fan of his...I like how he has been a leader and locked stuff down.  

Kudos to Mike!!

In all honesty, initially I was extremely POed, and thought Dewine was way over reacting shutting down the bars and restaurants. Now it looks like he was just ahead of the curve, as with few exceptions, every state in the country is on lock down. 

Did some projecting and making some assumptions based on the world corona map. At the rate the virus is spreading, we can expect around 300,000 cases here, with possibly 3,000 deaths. Time will tell. That virus sure is efficient in killing off Italians though, with an almost 1:10 fatality rate. Us Catholics are wondering if the have the Pope in a clean room to protect him- he's in the uber high risk group, a lot of the Italian Cardinals are on the high side of 70 too.  

[Kvoethe]

I still dont get it...last years flu season thru march killes 22k people...we are at 8.  I think this has been around longer than we think...its just the testing that has everyone up in arms.  I HOPE I am right and we hit the peak this week..or next and it calms down..

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

2 hours ago, hammertime said:

DeWine needs to take a break.

 

hes liking the attention a wee bit too much.

What politician doesn't like positive attention?

[hoorta]

31 minutes ago, Kvoethe said:

I still dont get it...last years flu season thru march killes 22k people...we are at 8.  I think this has been around longer than we think...its just the testing that has everyone up in arms.  I HOPE I am right and we hit the peak this week..or next and it calms down..

 

Um, not exactly. Corona is far more deadly than flu. I looked up the numbers, around 40 million cases of flu, and 22,000 deaths. That's not even 1\10th of a percent. OTOH with covid- there's been around 400,000 cases world wide, with almost the same number of deaths. (OK, almost 1\2 of those in Italy) My rough math makes  corona around 100 times more lethal than flu- so I'm slowly coming around as to why it's now a global health crisis. 

That said, we really won't know how many cases of this virus are asymptomatic, but it's damn obvious by now if you're showing symptoms, you're in way more trouble than just getting the flu, especially if you're elderly. 

The other thing to take into account is the number of cases and deaths is now on an exponential curve, so hoping it's going to stabilize anytime soon is wishful thinking.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Gorka]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

Um, not exactly. Corona is far more deadly than flu. I looked up the numbers, around 40 million cases of flu, and 22,000 deaths. That's not even 1\10th of a percent. OTOH with covid- there's been around 400,000 cases world wide, with almost the same number of deaths. (OK, almost 1\2 of those in Italy) My rough math makes  corona around 100 times more lethal than flu- so I'm slowly coming around as to why it's now a global health crisis. 

That said, we really won't know how many cases of this virus are asymptomatic, but it's damn obvious by now if you're showing symptoms, you're in way more trouble than just getting the flu, especially if you're elderly. 

The other thing to take into account is the number of cases and deaths is now on an exponential curve, so hoping it's going to stabilize anytime soon is wishful thinking.  

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Are you sure about that? The data I have reflects 3 times the number of deaths.

This is just for the US:

 The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

 

Lets play guess the virus:

Can you guess where these numbers came from?...in the US alone 60 million Americans infected in a 10-month period, 300,000 hospitalized. 18,000 deaths.

There was no economic shutdown...no stoppage of anything.

 

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, Gorka said:

Are you sure about that? The data I have reflects 3 times the number of deaths.

This is just for the US:

 The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

Lets play guess the virus:

Can you guess where these numbers came from?...in the US alone 60 million Americans infected in a 10-month period, 300,000 hospitalized. 18,000 deaths.

There was no economic shutdown...no stoppage of anything.

Well then regarding flu, the ratio cases\deaths is a lot higher than what I saw. However- look at that link I posted. If we go world wide with around 40 million cases of Corona virus- there's going to be in the vicinity of 2,000,000 deaths if the ratio remains similar. I'll stand by my assertion that's going to be orders of magnitude higher than flu. Sure, the actual ratio cases\deaths may be a lot lower, because of asymptomatic or unreported illnesses. But then again the same may be true for flu. Not every case of that gets reported either. 

How this is eventually going to play out is yet to be determined- if it was worth the tremendous economic ramifications to slow this bug down. 

[Tour2ma]

On 3/25/2020 at 3:03 PM, Kvoethe said:

I still dont get it...last years flu season thru march killes 22k people...we are at 8.  I think this has been around longer than we think...its just the testing that has everyone up in arms.  I HOPE I am right and we hit the peak this week..or next and it calms down..

Where are those numbers from? The "8" looks like an Ohio total albeit outdatted (there are 11 now)... so did Ohio loose 22,000 to the flu this past season? Gorka was quoting 18,000 for the nation.

Testing is making the lethality rate look much high than the expected while making the transmission rate look lower, because we are still only testing those suspected of being infected.

We are weeks away from the peak.... and the longer wildcard states are allowed to go their own way like Florida and Mississippi the longer it will take to get thru this phase of the battle.

On 3/25/2020 at 4:39 PM, Gorka said:

Lets play guess the virus:

Can you guess where these numbers came from?...in the US alone 60 million Americans infected in a 10-month period, 300,000 hospitalized. 18,000 deaths.

There was no economic shutdown...no stoppage of anything.

0.03% lethality... of course nothing was shut down. Except my digestive tract for about 24 hours...

Covid high side estimates... 170,000,000 cases with a 2% lethality.... 3,400,000 dead. Low side: 85,000,000 cases 1% lethality... 850,000 dead.

Whistle past that graveyard...

[Gorka]

19 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Covid high side estimates... 170,000,000 cases with a 2% lethality.... 3,400,000 dead. Low side: 85,000,000 cases 1% lethality... 850,000 dead.

Whistle past that graveyard...

But is this what you believe?

 

[Westside Steve]

4 minutes ago, Gorka said:

But is this what you believe?

 

Why not? I believed the Browns were going to win the AFC Central.

WSS

[hoorta]

5 hours ago, Gorka said:

But is this what you believe?

 

I believe Tom Petty said  "you can believe  what you want to  believe ". I'll  believe Tour's numbers  to be accurate. 

[Tour2ma]

8 hours ago, Gorka said:

But is this what you believe?

If a significant chunk of our population goes to church Easter Sunday and then resumes life as it was? Yes....

You don't?

2 hours ago, hoorta said:

I'll  believe Tour's numbers  to be accurate. 

Thanks, but not my numbers, h. Came from the pros...

[Gorka]

3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

If a significant chunk of our population goes to church Easter Sunday and then resumes life as it was? Yes....

That's what I thought. So your "whistle past that graveyard" idiom may be a bit premature.

To attempt to stay cheerful in a dire situation; to proceed with a task, ignoring an upcoming hazard

You don't?

I'm not sure what to believe Tour. I've been sort of playing devils advocate here. With 24,000 deaths worldwide so far, 3,400,000 is hard to fathom.

Thanks, but not my numbers, h. Came from the pros...

I'm 100% positive Hoorta didn't think those numbers were your own calculations.

You really did?

Eh maybe 98.9 % positive.

 

[Tour2ma]

5 hours ago, Gorka said:

I'm not sure what to believe Tour. I've been sort of playing devils advocate here. With 24,000 deaths worldwide so far, 3,400,000 is hard to fathom.

Fair enough...

Agree... 3.4mm is tough to wrap a mind around as a body count, but that's what should come from a combination of the highest infection rate and the highest lethality rate. The danger in such an exercise is that it makes 850k somehow seem "reasonable" by contrast.

The reality is that our new case rate is still accelerating.

 

And while we can argue that some of our spike is a product of increased test availability, the world's rate is also still accelerating... and it's testing has been much closer to meeting demand than ours

[hoorta]

9 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

If a significant chunk of our population goes to church Easter Sunday and then resumes life as it was? Yes....

Thanks, but not my numbers, h. Came from the pros...

That is going to be a problem  Tour. What happens when the more  severe  restrictions  come off. Saw that church in Arkansas had 30 cases. Damn, this bug is the most contagious little  booger I've ever seen, most concerning  thing from my POV.  BTW, the Catholic Churches in Ohio are shut down  until after Easter at the earliest,  lots of services are  online  now. 

I said it  before Tour, as to how long we want to\need to\ be able to keep the country in lockdown.  Pick your poison, a health  crisis, or an economic crisis?  We've got  tens of millions  out of work, and a lot of them are going to be  running  out of money  pretty quickly.  My bet? A lot of those folks  in that economic  boat are going to start saying,  screw it, I'll  take  my chances, I need to get back to  work. Already saw it yesterday  at a freeway exit.  Mom with a  sign. "Out of work, kids need food". The government  checks  are only a  temporary  bandaid on the problem, because  for sure a lot of the employers won't be able to  withstand  an extended  closure, and will  go belly up. 

 

[Tour2ma]

9 hours ago, hoorta said:

Pick your poison, a health  crisis, or an economic crisis? 

It's looking like the choice you present is a false choice, h. Economists have turned to estimating the impact of returning to work and letting the virus run its course.

Quote

Even in a hypothetical world where the economy was valued above human life, many economists say it wouldn’t necessarily make sense to sacrifice the elderly, abruptly send everyone back to work and allow the virus to run its course. Restarting international flights, for example, wouldn’t mean consumers would buy tickets. And the shock from the spreading infections and mounting deaths would make any sense of normalcy hard to maintain.

“The best way to get control of the economy is to get through this as quickly as possible,” said Edward Kaplan, who teaches economic policy and public health at Yale University. He said that means adhering to social distancing and drastically increasing testing.

Epidemiologists say any debate today — on the economy, the effect of restrictions and dwindling hospital capacity — is already behind the curve by two weeks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/24/coronavirus-strategy-economy-debate/

Above is about halfway down a lengthy WAPO article after the rehashing of the epidemiological arguments for staying the course, political reactions to Trump's Easter call, etc. Then as you can see the article quickly returns to the science discussion.

If all the restrictions, all the cautionary guidance was rescinded right now, how much more interested would you be in going out tonite?

Who would fly?

Go to Disney World?

Go to a movie?  And I mean, besides Steve..

[TexasAg1969]

2 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

It's looking like the choice you present is a false choice, h. Economists have turned to estimating the impact of returning to work and letting the virus run its course.

Above is about halfway down a lengthy WAPO article after the rehashing of the epidemiological arguments for staying the course, political reactions to Trump's Easter call, etc. Then as you can see the article quickly returns to the science discussion.

If all the restrictions, all the cautionary guidance was rescinded right now, how much more interested would you be in going out tonite?

Who would fly?

Go to Disney World?

Go to a movie?  And I mean, besides Steve..

Yep, this is where cal's survival thread comes in handy. Who knew we'd need it so soon, huh cal?😱

[Gorka]

2 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Fair enough...

Agree... 3.4mm is tough to wrap a mind around as a body count, but that's what should come from a combination of the highest infection rate and the highest lethality rate. The danger in such an exercise is that it makes 850k somehow seem "reasonable" by contrast.

The reality is that our new case rate is still accelerating.

 

And while we can argue that some of our spike is a product of increased test availability, the world's rate is also still accelerating... and it's testing has been much closer to meeting demand than ours

 

Usually when discussing an issue that I sense may turn out unfavorably the preface is "I hope I'm wrong".

But with this Corona thing I do admit has turned into a  "I hope I'm right" issue.

[Gorka]

4 hours ago, hoorta said:

That is going to be a problem  Tour. What happens when the more  severe  restrictions  come off. Saw that church in Arkansas had 30 cases. Damn, this bug is the most contagious little  booger I've ever seen, most concerning  thing from my POV.  BTW, the Catholic Churches in Ohio are shut down  until after Easter at the earliest,  lots of services are  online  now. 

I said it  before Tour, as to how long we want to\need to\ be able to keep the country in lockdown.  Pick your poison, a health  crisis, or an economic crisis?  We've got  tens of millions  out of work, and a lot of them are going to be  running  out of money  pretty quickly.  My bet? A lot of those folks  in that economic  boat are going to start saying,  screw it, I'll  take  my chances, I need to get back to  work. Already saw it yesterday  at a freeway exit.  Mom with a  sign. "Out of work, kids need food". The government  checks  are only a  temporary  bandaid on the problem, because  for sure a lot of the employers won't be able to  withstand  an extended  closure, and will  go belly up. 

 

What is your opinion on this?

With regards to the economy your views are reflected at the bottom of this article. You're a smart man!

Stanford medical professors: COVID-19 death toll estimates may be 'orders of magnitude' too high

A pair of public health experts from Stanford, Drs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, warn Americans in a Wall Street Journal editorial that the current estimates about the coronavirus' fatality rate may be too high by "orders of magnitude."

According to Bendavid and Bhattacharya, both of whom are medical doctors, while they are supportive of social distancing guidelines and efforts to contain the disease, they fear that orders to shut down the entire economy may be based on shoddy research data.

Death toll projects may be 'orders of magnitude too high'

"If it's true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified," they wrote. "But," and what a big one it is, they add, "there's little evidence to confirm that premise — and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high."

The two submit that because the United States and other countries largely focus their testing on symptomatic patients, the number of people who are infected with COVID-19 is likely much larger than the number of confirmed cases being reported by public health agencies throughout the country, which means the virus' mortality rate is likely significantly lower.

"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others," wrote Bendavid and Bhattacharya. "So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases."

How did they predict this?

The two professors argue that the best evidence of the coronavirus death rate being significantly lower than what is being reported may lie in the Italian town of Vò. On March 6, the town's 3,300 residents were tested. Of these, 90 tests came back positive, indicating a prevalence of 2.7% of the population having the virus.

If one were to apply this to the entire province where the town is located, which has a population of 955,000, it would mean there were actually 26,000 infections at the time, and not just the 198 that were officially confirmed. This would be 130 times greater than the number of reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, Bendavid and Bhattacharya write, "the real fatality rate [of the virus] could in fact be closer to 0.06%."

A 'cause for optimism'?

The two Stanford Health Policy experts even said the virus' mortality rate might be on par with that of the seasonal flu:
 

 

Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that's a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

A universal lockdown 'may not be worth the costs'

Bendavid and Bhattacharya say that if they are right about the lower lethality of the epidemic, public policy experts should focus their measures on protecting the elderly and expanding medical capacity.

"Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for the critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions."

The pair conclude that if their estimates are right, then the universal quarantine measures "may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community, and individual mental and physical health."

"We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns," they added.

[calfoxwc]

4 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Yep, this is where cal's survival thread comes in handy. Who knew we'd need it so soon, huh cal?😱

sadly true. I'm stunned this virus has gotten so far out of hand since it was lied about being non-person to person transmitted.

All over the world? nearly every single state in our U.S. ? So many folks on the folks in town are self-quarantining. I've dropped off some groceries for some friends - elderly and health things they are dealing with.

   I can't even do that right now - I sprained my big toe, twice, but kept going, and sprained my ankle pretty good slipping on the ladder I was using to trim another fruit tree, good thing it was a low rung. Stupid drizzle. Then I kept going and my foot swelled up, so now it's in a star wars looking compression boot. Very painful, I must say. Til the boot. Next day was no pain, could walk on it. very cool.

  We've been watching movies, lending our ATV keys to the neighbors and their kids. A friend borrowed my tractor sockets and sprained his back pretty bad. Different neighbors are checking on each other by phone - that is pretty cool. Some folks only had food for about a week, it was gone, and they went to the drive through at the grocery - several folks have done that, including us for certain items we hadn't stocked up a bit on. Self-employed - how do they pay rent? the now jobless? how to they pay their mortgage, buy food and medicine...etc?

   Meanwhile, China sent a bunch of corona virus tests to Spain. They didn't work. Faulty. No wonder their number of cases is lower than ours now. We don't lie.

   This is a very dangerous nasty virus...all our lives are affected - some lives will be lost.  Seems we are so used to being fine, we didn't really think this could happen. But it has. I hope everyone on the board is fine. and tries to stay home.

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, calfoxwc said:

sadly true. I'm stunned this virus has gotten so far out of hand since it was lied about being non-person to person transmitted.

All over the world? nearly every single state in our U.S. ? So many folks on the folks in town are self-quarantining. I've dropped off some groceries for some friends - elderly and health things they are dealing with.

   I can't even do that right now - I sprained my big toe, twice, but kept going, and sprained my ankle pretty good slipping on the ladder I was using to trim another fruit tree, good thing it was a low rung. Stupid drizzle. Then I kept going and my foot swelled up, so now it's in a star wars looking compression boot. Very painful, I must say. Til the boot. Next day was no pain, could walk on it. very cool.

  We've been watching movies, lending our ATV keys to the neighbors and their kids. A friend borrowed my tractor sockets and sprained his back pretty bad. Different neighbors are checking on each other by phone - that is pretty cool. Some folks only had food for about a week, it was gone, and they went to the drive through at the grocery - several folks have done that, including us for certain items we hadn't stocked up a bit on. Self-employed - how do they pay rent? the now jobless? how to they pay their mortgage, buy food and medicine...etc?

   Meanwhile, China sent a bunch of corona virus tests to Spain. They didn't work. Faulty. No wonder their number of cases is lower than ours now. We don't lie.

   This is a very dangerous nasty virus...all our lives are affected - some lives will be lost.  Seems we are so used to being fine, we didn't really think this could happen. But it has. I hope everyone on the board is fine. and tries to stay home.

I think I may have said that I don't pray a lot, but when I do it is always for others. I will join mine with yours for all those people we see in dire straits or who could be soon. All past little squabbles mean absolutely nothing now. This stuff is deadly serious and many still do not really get that until it's way too late. I post on the "Nextdoor" site that ties all local communities surrounding Sun City and now people of all political parties are teaming together to disabuse some who still have the notion that this is not a serious thing, especially for a community with so many retired people and so many long term care facilities. There are over 10,000 homes in Sun City where you must be 55 or over plus many other retirement subdivisions and multiple nursing homes, independent care homes and memory care units to service the many thousands of older Americans, many of whom are military retired from Ft. Hood. My prayer is that it never hits this area because if it does it will really overwhelm very limited medical facilities and many will be triaged out to die. I don't ever want to see that happen to so many who have so nobly sacrificed for our country in their prior careers.🙏

Take care and do what you can. So will I.

[Tour2ma]

7 hours ago, Gorka said:

But with this Corona thing I do admit has turned into a  "I hope I'm right" issue.

I'll drink to that...

... but don't get used to it.

5 hours ago, Gorka said:

If one were to apply this to the entire province where the town is located, which has a population of 955,000, it would mean there were actually 26,000 infections at the time, and not just the 198 that were officially confirmed. This would be 130 times greater than the number of reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, Bendavid and Bhattacharya write, "the real fatality rate [of the virus] could in fact be closer to 0.06%."

I hope these authors are better Doctors than they are statisticians. You cannot mix statistics taken from a population of 3300 that is a subset of a population of 296,000 that is a subset of a population of 60.5 million willy-nilly. You cannot assume Vo represents Padua Province which represents Italy. Are the age demographics aligned? What are the relative health histories? Look at the maps and tell me if you think Vo has a chance of representing all of Padua.

Choosing Vo, Italy was convenient because it may be the only town outside of China or S. Korea that has tested all of its inhabitants. Convenience makes it neither right nor representative.

So questionable stats... How's their Doctoring?

If these guys knew what we all now know then they'd know that there is a time lag of 14 to 21 days between infection rate data, symptomatic data and lethality data. They can not take one snapshot in time and go write a paper. Furthermore because Vo isolated their 90 infected residents, its population is no longer useful statistically... except to say that 100% testing followed by action on the results appears to be an effective way to stop this virus in its tracks.

Quote

In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus

It’s now about one month since Covid-19 began to sweep across Italy. With more than total cases topping 40,000 as of 19 March, it is now the worst-affected country outside of China.

But in the last two weeks, a promising pilot study here has produced results that may be instructive for other countries trying to control coronavirus. Beginning on 6 March , along with researchers at the University of Padua and the Red Cross, we tested all residents of Vò, a town of 3,000 inhabitants near Venice – including those who did not have symptoms. This allowed us to quarantine people before they showed signs of infection and stop the further spread of coronavirus. In this way, we eradicated coronavirus in under 14 days.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

Here is Vo...

Here is Padua Province.

Does Vo look like it would be even remotely representative of its Province?

Might as well say Parma, Ohio is representative of Cuyahoga County.

[calfoxwc]

16 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

I think I may have said that I don't pray a lot, but when I do it is always for others. I will join mine with yours for all those people we see in dire straits or who could be soon. All past little squabbles mean absolutely nothing now. This stuff is deadly serious and many still do not really get that until it's way too late. I post on the "Nextdoor" site that ties all local communities surrounding Sun City and now people of all political parties are teaming together to disabuse some who still have the notion that this is not a serious thing, especially for a community with so many retired people and so many long term care facilities. There are over 10,000 homes in Sun City where you must be 55 or over plus many other retirement subdivisions and multiple nursing homes, independent care homes and memory care units to service the many thousands of older Americans, many of whom are military retired from Ft. Hood. My prayer is that it never hits this area because if it does it will really overwhelm very limited medical facilities and many will be triaged out to die. I don't ever want to see that happen to so many who have so nobly sacrificed for our country in their prior careers.🙏

Take care and do what you can. So will I.

Very classy, Tex - it takes a crisis sometimes, to remind us to not take so many things for granted. We have close friends who are fairly liberal. And wanted nothing to do with the idea about prepping just in case, and Pres Trump. Now, they spend over 300 bucks on food in the drive through at the grocery, a very popular drive through - and texted to me she is so sadly stunned that this could happen here. Our neighborhood is generally making sure everybody else is ok.

     Our niece and family live in Midland, Texas - they didn't have it there - but that was a week ago - hope it's still true. Pretty perceptive to cancel her trip up here the week before things shut down.

     Wife's Dad in assisted living - going on 98 - says he gets bored, but then walks down the hall with his walker and talks to all his friends. No visitors allowed - packages are disinfected, etc. No cases there. They don't eat together anymore for now, their meals go to their rooms.  They are doing well.

   We dropped off groceries again to another friend - had a hip replacement surgery three weeks ago - they stay in home quarantined...

  Let's all just hang in there. I truly wish everyone and their families are just safe from all this.

I'm even concerned for Woody's well being - his house is only about ten miles from a virus epicenter

[hoorta]

22 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

It's looking like the choice you present is a false choice, h. Economists have turned to estimating the impact of returning to work and letting the virus run its course.

Above is about halfway down a lengthy WAPO article after the rehashing of the epidemiological arguments for staying the course, political reactions to Trump's Easter call, etc. Then as you can see the article quickly returns to the science discussion.

If all the restrictions, all the cautionary guidance was rescinded right now, how much more interested would you be in going out tonite?

Who would fly?

Go to Disney World?

Go to a movie?  And I mean, besides Steve..

Apparenty depends on what economist you want to believe Tour. Some  think Paul Krugman is full of crap. 

This armchair  economist just saw something  from the National  Restaurant  Association that this shutdown may well cost the permanent loss of 5-7 million  jobs. I'll  add  with a lot of  collateral damage.  GDP down 30%. India  now on lockdown.  Isn't  much going to  matter what we do now, I'm  seeing a  global depression  on the horizon.  

Besides Steve, I'd  go the Boris Johnson route. Try to  live as normally as possible unless I start  showing  symptoms. Going to  get  on the bike for an hour, that's still  allowed. What I worry about (not just me) is the probably now a million or so folks out there who are totally asymptomatic yet infectious. May not  even know  they are  infectious!!! So unless you want to tell everyone to hide under their beds all day because of our Corona  boogeyman, the number of  cases are going to  increase. 

That's the problem from my POV, the total media fixation  on the Corona body count, while OTOH ignoring most of those infected don't  even need hospitalization. That's not to say the problem isn't serious, it is. But just watch, folks are going to  start tuning out  due to the  constant  media bombardment.