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Westside Steve

Bottom line on the virus

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2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

There is ALWAYS a tweet.

 

 

You're right. There is literally always a pre-President (sometimes when he already was president) tweet from Trump that completely contradicts the thing he's saying at the moment. 

It's not too unlike some posters here if you just use the search function on this site. 

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44 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

 

Yeah and from statistics that don't feed the panic. 1,300 people died of malaria today, and 26,000 from cancer. Several deaths in Africa from venomous Black Mamba bites, and one guy trampled by an elephant. OK kidding about the last two, but I hope you get my point about media over saturation. Feeding overt hysteria. 

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5 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Yeah and from statistics that don't feed the panic. 1,300 people died of malaria today, and 26,000 from cancer. Several deaths in Africa from venomous Black Mamba bites, and one guy trampled by an elephant. OK kidding about the last two, but I hope you get my point about media over saturation. Feeding overt hysteria. 

And do you want to explain to the class why this isn't cancer or malaria?

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1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

And do you want to explain to the class why this isn't cancer or malaria?

LOL because the media has made it BIG NEWS? Tia ragged on me for bringing up malaria, but the point is- it killed more people today than the deaths in Italy. Guess only deaths in developed countries (and a health crisis) count. 

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1 minute ago, hoorta said:

LOL because the media has made it BIG NEWS? Tia ragged on me for bringing up malaria, but the point is- it killed more people today than the deaths in Italy. Guess only deaths in developed countries (and a health crisis) count. 

picard-facepalm.jpg

 

 

 

Is this just going to be a thing the whole pandemic? A group of people going "What are we all doing? This isn't a big deal. It's just the media! Why can't anyone see that like I can!"

while the actual experts across the board are desperately hoping we listen to them

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1 hour ago, MLD Woody said:

 

Is this just going to be a thing the whole pandemic? A group of people going "What are we all doing? This isn't a big deal. It's just the media! Why can't anyone see that like I can!"

while the actual experts across the board are desperately hoping we listen to them

At this point you'd have to be deaf, dumb, and blind (at least in this country) to not have heard what the health experts are saying. Don't take it that way. Miss this?  "Guess only deaths in developed countries (and a health crisis) count."  Or are worth reporting on. 

Serious? Sure- but look at it from my perspective having worked in health care essentially my entire adult life. People die by the 10s of thousands every day (actually around 150,000 every day, looked it up) Woody. So call me  a little jaundiced when I've seen what's left of guys when they rolled their Harley doing 70, or gotten run over by a train. Whether its from Corona, cancer, a car accident, stomped by an elephant- doesn't matter- you're just as dead. 

As far as media reporting POV- corona deaths are only thing that matters right now- too bad if you die from any of the other things. Fair enough? There's a saying "death has 1,000 doors". More like 100,000.  X corona deaths in Italy!!! They're dropping like flies!!! May they rest in peace. People are recovering too, but that's not news. 

Yeah- it's damn contagious, people are dying from it, to the extent anything else isn't worth the time of day. 

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Getting tired of the non stop fear mongering..

 

I've stopped watching TV. And listen to very little radio..

 

I caught a segment on sports radio today with Kirk Herbstreet. His FIRST comment was "Well I haven't talked to anybody".. And then he went into a long diatribe about how we couldn't possibly play football for about 17 yrs..

 

Turn on the TV, or radio and there they are, flocks of Chicken Littles.. "The Sky is Falling" The Sky is falling!!

 

There is literally NOTHING else on TV or radio..

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, hoorta said:

At this point you'd have to be deaf, dumb, and blind (at least in this country) to not have heard what the health experts are saying. Don't take it that way. Miss this?  "Guess only deaths in developed countries (and a health crisis) count."  Or are worth reporting on. 

Serious? Sure- but look at it from my perspective having worked in health care essentially my entire adult life. People die by the 10s of thousands every day (actually around 150,000 every day, looked it up) Woody. So call me  a little jaundiced when I've seen what's left of guys when they rolled their Harley doing 70, or gotten run over by a train. Whether its from Corona, cancer, a car accident, stomped by an elephant- doesn't matter- you're just as dead. 

As far as media reporting POV- corona deaths are only thing that matters right now- too bad if you die from any of the other things. Fair enough? There's a saying "death has 1,000 doors". More like 100,000.  X corona deaths in Italy!!! They're dropping like flies!!! People are recovering too, but that's not news. 

Yeah- it's damn contagious, people are dying from it, to the extent anything else isn't worth the time of day. 

And this is an additional form of death, a very contagious disease with no cure. You can't catch "getting trampled by an elephant" from someone with no symptoms. Yes people die every day, but as of a few months ago they weren't dying from this, and that's the point.

Again, I'm going to listen to the infectious disease experts and what they feel is the best course of action. The models are out there and there could be a heavy impact. 

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13 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

There is ALWAYS a tweet.

 

 

Which begs the question... Yeah , okay so?

WSS

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2 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

Which begs the question... Yeah , okay so?

WSS

No, it doesn't beg any questions. 

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The bottom line?

With a population in the USA of approximately 329.45 million,   .038% have been diagnosed positive and the death percentage is .00068%. Doesn't sound like the media, does it?

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7 minutes ago, Axe said:

The bottom line?

With a population in the USA of approximately 329.45 million,   .038% have been diagnosed positive and the death percentage is .00068%. Doesn't sound like the media, does it?

 

Total cases is 125,100 with  2,238 dead.   That's 1.78% morality rate of total cases.

I can't even begin to fathom how you determine your numbers.    3 days ago it was 1000 deaths.  We've more than doubled that number in less than 72 hours.  

I can recommend a few out of work teachers who can help with remedial math via Zoom, Go-To-Office...  whatever you'd like, slugger. 

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14 hours ago, hoorta said:

Yeah and from statistics that don't feed the panic. 1,300 people died of malaria today, and 26,000 from cancer. Several deaths in Africa from venomous Black Mamba bites, and one guy trampled by an elephant. OK kidding about the last two, but I hope you get my point about media over saturation. Feeding overt hysteria. 

 

If somebody coughs on me, can I get cancer?  

If I buy a hooker and she spits in my mouth, can I get cancer?

 

Well...shit.  

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6 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

 

Total cases is 125,100 with  2,238 dead.   That's 1.78% morality rate of total cases.

I can't even begin to fathom how you determine your numbers.   

Divide 125,100 by 329,450,000...

Divide 2238 by  329,450,000

 

 

Carry on Chicken little..

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12 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

picard-facepalm.jpg

 

 

Is this just going to be a thing the whole pandemic? A group of people going "What are we all doing? This isn't a big deal. It's just the media! Why can't anyone see that like I can!"

while the actual experts across the board are desperately hoping we listen to them

Yes it is. This is just a couple paragraphs from "The end of epidemics" by Jonathan Quick (published in 2018)

 

 

Screenshot_20200329-115716.png

Screenshot_20200329-115712.png

Screenshot_20200329-115723.png

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3 minutes ago, Axe said:

Divide 125,100 by 329,450,000...

Divide 2238 by  329,450,000

 

 

Carry on Chicken little..

 

That's not how this works.   Total reported cases is how mortality rate is established.

Your methodology is flawed.

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21 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

 

That's not how this works.   Total reported cases is how mortality rate is established.

Your methodology is flawed.

Ok, let's use your methodology..

.038% of the US population has tested positive.  The death rate of that .038% is 1.78% 

You do the math

.00068%

 

Where have we seen that number before?

 

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18 minutes ago, Axe said:

Ok, let's use your methodology..

.038% of the US population has tested positive.  The death rate of that .038% is 1.78% 

You do the math

.00068%

 

Where have we seen that number before?

 

 

Jesus H Christ.    You're actually multiplying .038 by 1.78%?    

Again, LEAVE out total population, you go off of infected confirmed cases over deaths.   I'll make this really, really, super easy.

 

Let's pretend this is a sci-fi movie.   You and I are doctors, we discover a remote area of the country that has reported deaths from illness, so you and I go to investigate.    We discover a town of 2,000 people.  We find the CDC is already on the job, nobody is left alive out of the 2,000 cases.   Which means, of all the infected we know of, nobody surived.  That is a 100% mortality rate from brand new mystery Virus X.    Let's just call it Virus X.   That is what we know and what you work from.

You don't go, "Well, hey bubs, 2,000 dead then multiply it by the potential of total population within the state".   That is NOT how this works, I cannot make that any more clear to you.    If we showed up in the same hypothetical situation and the CDC said 1,000 of the 2,000 total confirmed are dead - that is a 50% mortality rate off of current total cases from brand new mystery Virus X.   Again, off of total confirmed cases.

 

Let's make it even easier.  We're running a lab study and infect 100 mice for observation.  When the lab gives us a report back of a 70% mortality rate, that is 70 mice, 7 of every 10, that have died from Virus X.      We don't multiply over the total of the mice population.

 

Is ANY of this getting through to you?

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Axe said:

Divide 125,100 by 329,450,000...

Divide 2238 by  329,450,000

 

 

Carry on Chicken little..

2o1o1s.jpg

 

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wait.

it's 2149 divided by 125,903 = 0.0170686957419601‬

that's 1.7%

However, we haven't yet ascertained the total number of cases, actually.

Not all have been tested.

the percentage of deaths vs cases.

sadder still - that is less than several other countries:

https://heavy.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-deaths-updates/

  • Austria – 68
  • Belgium – 353
  • Brazil – 116
  • Canada – 61
  • China – 3,300
  • Denmark – 52
  • France – 2,314
  • Germany – 478
  • Indonesia – 102
  • Iran – 2,517
  • Italy – 10,023
  • Japan – 55
  • Netherlands – 639
  • Philippines – 68
  • Portugal -100
  • South Korea – 152
  • Spain – 5,982
  • Sweden – 102
  • Switzerland – 271
  • Turkey – 108
  • United Kingdom – 1,019
  • United States – 2,223 (this is nearly a 1,000 death increase in one day)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

NOTE: about half of U.S. deaths are from New York. As I posted elsewhere, people are fleeing NY for all sorts of reasons, with the virus being a final straw for many. and they are spreading it.                         

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2 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

wait.

it's 2149 divided by 125,903 = 0.0170686957419601‬

that's 1.7%

However, we haven't yet ascertained the total number of cases, actually.

Not all have been tested.

the percentage of deaths vs cases.

sadder still - that is less than several other countries:

https://heavy.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-deaths-updates/

  • Austria – 68
  • Belgium – 353
  • Brazil – 116
  • Canada – 61
  • China – 3,300
  • Denmark – 52
  • France – 2,314
  • Germany – 478
  • Indonesia – 102
  • Iran – 2,517
  • Italy – 10,023
  • Japan – 55
  • Netherlands – 639
  • Philippines – 68
  • Portugal -100
  • South Korea – 152
  • Spain – 5,982
  • Sweden – 102
  • Switzerland – 271
  • Turkey – 108
  • United Kingdom – 1,019
  • United States – 2,223 (this is nearly a 1,000 death increase in one day)

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

NOTE: about half of U.S. deaths are from New York. As I posted elsewhere, people are fleeing NY for all sorts of reasons, with the virus being a final straw for many. and they are spreading it.                         

That will end up being damn near EVERY major metropolitan area at some point.  NY,  DC,  Chi-town, LA, Seattle.  Any place with intense population density is a time bomb.

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5 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

That will end up being damn near EVERY major metropolitan area at some point.  NY,  DC,  Chi-town, LA, Seattle.  Any place with intense population density is a time bomb.

You have to wonder why isn't Tokyo, or Seoul, or Berlin getting the same effect?

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12 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

You have to wonder why isn't Tokyo, or Seoul, or Berlin getting the same effect?

South Korea kicked ass, but I'm positive their highest number of cases were reported in their largest city.  Only makes sense.  Tokyo & Berlin?  Not sure of... but if any epidemic breaks out, population density always plays a huge role in just about every category relating to survival. 

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