Bottom line on the virus

[DieHardBrownsFan]

2,547

Confirmed Cases in Ohio

222

Number of ICU admissions

679

Number of Hospitalizations in Ohio

65

Number of Deaths

[tiamat63]

US death toll at 5k.

A little under 2 weeks into the real meat of the dinner =(

[calfoxwc]

got this in an email from the township: this is serious crap. Like an invasion of an microscopic alien species

[Tour2ma]

On 3/31/2020 at 5:07 AM, OldBrownsFan said:

OK our latest Trump Derangement Syndrome victim. To root against the success of this drug because Trump supported it is insanity but that is what TDS is.

Fuck you...

I'm not rooting against anything. I actually hope it works, but unlike you or your Dear Leader, I'm not going to raise anyone's hopes falsely.

I'm banging on the door trying to wake you the fuck up.

 

Fuck it... sleep well, OBF... hope your awakening is not a rude one.

[Tour2ma]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:58 AM, Gorka said:

The unknown here is the ages of the 700 that have recovered.

In the half of the interview I listened to the Dr. said he provides primary care to a Hasidic community where the average age is 15.

Doesn't fill in the blank you raise, but does tip the likely demographics towards a younger population sample.

[Tour2ma]

On 3/31/2020 at 12:26 AM, hoorta said:

Sure, accurate on what we currently know. You're ignoring the very real possibility that there's tons of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases out there when we start doing mass screening. 

Already said - the way Italy is counting covid deaths is padding the stats from my POV. How much? Hard to say. USA- 160,000 cases 3,000 deaths 1.7%. Of diagnosed cases. 

I'm ignoring nothing. You can't ignore data that doesn't exist yet.

Do I think it is likely that there are undiagnosed cases out there? Absolutely, but there are also likely unattributed deaths out there. Can't do a calculation using unknown data.

[Tour2ma]

On 3/31/2020 at 7:30 AM, MLD Woody said:

You never answered Tour tho, are you an electrical engineer?

On 3/31/2020 at 8:45 AM, Gorka said:

Not at all. Earning a degree in any engineering field is not easy..

Although my job title is FSE...Field Service Engineer, I am not really an engineer, but my background is in electronics. I work for a company that manufactures equipment used mainly in medical research and diagnostics. I'm the one who bitches at engineers over the way they design the stuff.lol

ChemE... we're the ones who bitch at Chemists about choosing the hardest routes to synthesize a compound....

Bastages, the lot of 'em...

 

I agree that EEs use the most math.

[Westside Steve]

2 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

ChemE... we're the ones who bitch at Chemists about choosing the hardest routes to synthesize a compound....

Bastages, the lot of 'em...

 

I agree that EEs use the most math.

Fargi g sneaky bastidges at that.

WSS

[calfoxwc]

28 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Fuck you...

I'm not rooting against anything. I actually hope it works, but unlike you or your Dear Leader, I'm not going to raise anyone's hopes falsely.

I'm banging on the door trying to wake you the fuck up.

 

Fuck it... sleep well, OBF... hope your awakening is not a rude one.

 

[MLD Woody]

 

 

 

2

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

In the half of the interview I listened to the Dr. said he provides primary care to a Hasidic community where the average age is 15.

Doesn't fill in the blank you raise, but does tip the likely demographics towards a younger population sample.

So 699 cases and they're mainly younger?

(not directed at you Tour, I'm sure you know this)

Basically you need to perform a statistical test and figure out whether the drug he's using is providing any statistically significant improvement

 

Let's say the fatality rate of young adults or teens is only 0.1%. Then the odds of surviving currently are then 99.9%. That makes the odds of 699 people all surviving 49.7%. That means that about 50% of the time 699 young adults would survive without his drug.

If the fatality rate for young adults and teens is dropped to 0.01% then the odds of all 699 people surviving rise to 93%

 

This isn't exactly how you do statistical hypothesis testing but you get the idea. 

[Tour2ma]

Not "mean", cal... just channeling my inner Trump...

[calfoxwc]

4 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Not "mean", cal... just channeling my inner Trump...

lol.

[Tour2ma]

14 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

So 699 cases and they're mainly younger?

(not directed at you Tour, I'm sure you know this)

Basically you need to perform a statistical test and figure out whether the drug he's using is providing any statistically significant improvement

Can't say "mainly" or anything else about the "sample", but per the Dr.'s own words the population is definitely skewed to the young side. So it's a battle between the virus' apparent "affinity" for the old and the populations' energetic supply of the young that are at odds in determining who walked in the Doc's office.

But, yes... a t-test with a null hypothesis between a test group and a control group... like the NIH is doing now on a large scale. Two small scale tests (30 subjects total split into two equal groups) to date have shown no difference between the test and control (placebo) groups. In one test 13 of 15 given the drug recovered while 14 of the control group recovered.

And, yes, I took a stat class at San Jacinto JUCO... about 4 decades ago. Put that lil investment to some good use for during the last of my working years as Quality Manager - Manufacturing.

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Grim news of coronavirus infections and fatalities continued in the U.S. on Wednesday, with the number of confirmed cases rising above 200,000 and the number of deaths surpassing 5,000.

The fatalities for Wednesday alone topped 1,000 -- a one-day toll more than double that usually recorded for lung cancer and influenza combined, USA Today reported. Some researchers predicted U.S. coronavirus deaths could surpass 2,000 per day by mid-April, exceeding daily deaths attributed to heart disease, the report said.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Ohio Department of Health

2,902 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases

Updated: 4/2/20 2:00 p.m.

 

Cuyahoga County

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases: 663

 

2,902

Confirmed Cases in Ohio

260

Number of ICU admissions

802

Number of Hospitalizations in Ohio

81

Number of Deaths

[Tour2ma]

Just saw where one Ohio family has lost three family members to the virus... in Grove City.

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/hilliard-woman-loses-three-family-members-to-covid-19-urges-social-distancing-for-others

 

Won't be long before we all know someone who has it...

... hope it does not get to the point where we all know someone it has killed... but I'd be lying if I said I liked the odds of that staying true.

[hoorta]

18 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

I'm ignoring nothing. You can't ignore data that doesn't exist yet.

Do I think it is likely that there are undiagnosed cases out there? Absolutely, but there are also likely unattributed deaths out there. Can't do a calculation using unknown data.

Good, glad we agree there. As to unattributed deaths? Not so much.  I'm willing to place a sizable bet that essentially anyone in the US who dies from sudden onset respiratory distress now is going to be checked for corona infection. Surprises me not at all the ratio of deaths is going up.   

15 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Just saw where one Ohio family has lost three family members to the virus... in Grove City.

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/hilliard-woman-loses-three-family-members-to-covid-19-urges-social-distancing-for-others

Won't be long before we all know someone who has it...

... hope it does not get to the point where we all know someone it has killed... but I'd be lying if I said I liked the odds of that staying true.

Already know of seven folks in quarantine. (five of them employees from my wife's hospital lab) I'll bet Joe's (our Church Education Director) elderly mom who got hospitalized over the weekend has it. He's stuck in Cincinnati in quarantine. 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Ohio Department of Health

3,312 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases

Updated: 4/3/20 2:00 p.m.

Cuyahoga

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases: 780

[TexasAg1969]

Potential vaccine may be coming soon. 

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/research-covid-19-pandemic-research/2020/04/02/id/961200/?ns_mail_uid=6d52df85-236f-4a8f-8332-d84fdb5d6ebf&ns_mail_job=DM102601_04032020&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124vivfdf

[calfoxwc]

3 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Potential vaccine may be coming soon. 

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/research-covid-19-pandemic-research/2020/04/02/id/961200/?ns_mail_uid=6d52df85-236f-4a8f-8332-d84fdb5d6ebf&ns_mail_job=DM102601_04032020&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124vivfdf

That is really good news, for a change.

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Potential vaccine may be coming soon. 

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/research-covid-19-pandemic-research/2020/04/02/id/961200/?ns_mail_uid=6d52df85-236f-4a8f-8332-d84fdb5d6ebf&ns_mail_job=DM102601_04032020&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010124vivfdf

It works on mice, but will it work on humans?  

Just my off the wall theory Ag.  Those individuals showing no or only mild symptoms of covid probably have a good to very good immune response to the virus. OTOH, those with a poor immune response (and we're already seeing this in the elderly and immuno compromised) are the ones most likely to have a poor outcome....  

[Tour2ma]

9 hours ago, hoorta said:

It works on mice, but will it work on humans?  

Just my off the wall theory Ag.  Those individuals showing no or only mild symptoms of covid probably have a good to very good immune response to the virus. OTOH, those with a poor immune response (and we're already seeing this in the elderly and immuno compromised) are the ones most likely to have a poor outcome....  

Good question... still have to have human trials.

h, about your "off the wall"... are kids, under 10 known for having the stoutest immune responses? They still seem to be the least susceptible.

[MLD Woody]

 

 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

3,739

Confirmed Cases in Ohio

Ohio Department of Health

04/04/2020

326

Number of ICU admissions

1,006

Number of Hospitalizations in Ohio

102

Number of Deaths

[tiamat63]

Wasn't about to say anything but I'll hit you with a dose of reality.

My mother was told by a doctor to go to the ER 2 days ago.   She was told the ONLY reason she was being tested for COVID was because she was deemed "high risk".   That they're willing to ignore symptoms in many not deemed high risk just to ration tests.    Got the results back 20 minutes ago - negative.   Bad case of FLU type A it appears along with minor dehydration (which affects the heart)    

Apparently this is going to be a problem as type A has been big this year.   People thinking they have it, especially given duration, and soaking up tests.    

I'm fortunate everybody is alright so far, but the idea that testing is available wide spread outside of major cities appears to be.... not accurate.

[calfoxwc]

none of us have ever, ever seen this kind of crisis. It's stunning to see how it has spread to every state in the country.

So many people infected, so many hospitalized, so many deaths.

We're Americans. We'll win this - but it will take some time.

per county

Confirmed

3,739

+427

Deaths

102

+11

Recovered

-

Data is collected from multiple sources that update at different times and may not always align. Some states may not provide complete county-level info.

 

Confirmed

Deaths

Recovered

Cuyahoga

781

13

-

Franklin

557

6

-

Hamilton

288

2

-

Lucas

272

7

-

Mahoning

250

13

-

Summit

184

7

-

Lorain

105

2

-

Stark

92

5

-

Trumbull

90

6

-

Lake

76

3

-

Portage

74

3

-

Medina

74

2

-

Montgomery

69

2

-

Miami

69

9

-

Delaware

69

1

-

Butler

59

1

-

Licking

50

1

-

Geauga

38

0

-

Columbiana

36

5

-

Fairfield

36

2

-

Warren

35

0

-

Darke

28

2

-

Wayne

25

0

-

Wood

23

0

-

Clermont

20

1

-

Pickaway

20

0

-

Tuscarawas

19

0

-

Belmont

17

0

-

Allen

15

0

-

Madison

15

2

-

Richland

14

0

-

Jefferson

14

0

-

Marion

12

0

-

Ashtabula

11

0

-

Greene

11

1

-

Shelby

10

0

-

Hancock

9

0

-

Coshocton

8

0

-

Carroll

8

0

-

Crawford

7

0

-

Clinton

7

0

-

Clark

7

0

-

Defiance

7

0

-

Union

7

0

-

Lawrence

7

0

-

Washington

6

0

-

Auglaize

6

0

-

Mercer

6

1

-

Erie

6

1

-

Knox

6

1

-

Huron

6

1

-

Champaign

5

0

-

Sandusky

5

0

-

Wyandot

5

0

-

Seneca

5

1

-

Ottawa

5

0

-

Fulton

5

0

-

Preble

4

0

-

Ross

4

0

-

Gallia

4

1

-

Muskingum

4

0

-

Highland

4

0

-

Perry

3

0

-

Brown

3

1

-

Ashland

3

0

-

Athens

3

1

-

Logan

3

0

-

Morrow

3

0

-

Van Wert

2

0

-

Fayette

2

0

-

Williams

1

0

-

Pike

1

0

-

Adams

1

0

-

Hardin

1

0

-

Guernsey

1

0

-

Holmes

1

0

[calfoxwc]

7 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Wasn't about to say anything but I'll hit you with a dose of reality.

My mother was told by a doctor to go to the ER 2 days ago.   She was told the ONLY reason she was being tested for COVID was because she was deemed "high risk".   That they're willing to ignore symptoms in many not deemed high risk just to ration tests.    Got the results back 20 minutes ago - negative.   Bad case of FLU type A it appears along with minor dehydration (which affects the heart)    

Apparently this is going to be a problem as type A has been big this year.   People thinking they have it, especially given duration, and soaking up tests.    

I'm fortunate everybody is alright so far, but the idea that testing is available wide spread outside of major cities appears to be.... not accurate.

I'm sorry to hear your family had such a scare. Do they have to design a test for every kind of flu? If that's true, we're always behind the 8-ball.

so far, our county is doing ok. But the top counties are doing really bad.

I hope and pray nobody on this forum knows anybody who gets it.

[tiamat63]

13 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

I'm sorry to hear your family had such a scare. Do they have to design a test for every kind of flu? If that's true, we're always behind the 8-ball.

so far, our county is doing ok. But the top counties are doing really bad.

I hope and pray nobody on this forum knows anybody who gets it.

I'm not entirely certain about the flu test, my guy.    But the nice thing, being that it's a disease with centuries of history here, is that we're more than prepared for it.   At the moment, we can't say the same for Corona.

We're doing OK, I grant you that.   But the line from OK to Oh, shit... is a fine one.

And if we're being honest with ourselves, Tour was right about one big thing...  Chances are we'll all know or share somebody who will have permanent lung function loss and/or possibly worst case scenario - no longer be with us. 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

Now I wonder if they had the virus.  It wasn't even considered back then in Mid Feb.

 

Chinese Bio lab located in Wuhan where corona virus started.........

DieHardBrownsFan replied to DieHardBrownsFan's topic in POLITICAL DISCUSSION

Both my younger brother and his wife have been sick since Thursday with fever, cough (bad) and severe chills and headaches. They are liberal 'anti vaxers' and didn't get the flu shots. I told them to go to an urgent care center to get tamiflu which works if you get it within 24-48 hours of symptoms...

•  February 23
•  
•  219 replies