Bottom line on the virus

[DieHardBrownsFan]

From a NYC nurse :

 

 

What would you like to say to people who are not on the front line?

The message I would like to convey to everybody who's not in health care is stay home. You know, I hate staying home, I hate being locked in my house.

But at the end of the day, the chance of you getting sick and dying is extremely, extremely high at this point. And Covid is not just focusing on the immune compromised, the old, the elderly. It's everybody at this point.

It doesn't matter who you are. It is take no prisoners. So my message is to stay at home.

In the coming weeks, what are your expectations?

I believe that this pandemic will go on until at least May or June. We in the healthcare system, especially in New York, we believe that this will go on until the summer time. The only way that I believe and that a lot of my co-workers believe that we can get a handle on this is there needs to be an entire lockdown on the entire country. And that means food delivery is shut down. That means everything is shut down except for truly essential employees. And that means police, nurses, doctors, those are the only people that need to be going out because we're truly trying to tackle this.

Anybody else needs to be at home and we need to completely lock the country down. That's the only way I think that we are going to tackle this. Otherwise, it's just going to keep going and going and going.

[hoorta]

3 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

From a NYC nurse :

What would you like to say to people who are not on the front line?

The message I would like to convey to everybody who's not in health care is stay home. You know, I hate staying home, I hate being locked in my house.

But at the end of the day, the chance of you getting sick and dying is extremely, extremely high at this point. And Covid is not just focusing on the immune compromised, the old, the elderly. It's everybody at this point.

It doesn't matter who you are. It is take no prisoners. So my message is to stay at home.

In the coming weeks, what are your expectations?

I believe that this pandemic will go on until at least May or June. We in the healthcare system, especially in New York, we believe that this will go on until the summer time. The only way that I believe and that a lot of my co-workers believe that we can get a handle on this is there needs to be an entire lockdown on the entire country. And that means food delivery is shut down. That means everything is shut down except for truly essential employees. And that means police, nurses, doctors, those are the only people that need to be going out because we're truly trying to tackle this.

Anybody else needs to be at home and we need to completely lock the country down. That's the only way I think that we are going to tackle this. Otherwise, it's just going to keep going and going and going.

OK, your opinion. In a few months deaths by starvation and rioting will surpass Corona. I sincerely hope that's not what you meant. I've run across a few nurses in my time who had mental issues. 

[OldBrownsFan]

UK furious over China’s coronavirus disinformation campaign against US

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/uk-furious-over-chinas-coronavirus-disinformation-campaign-against-us/

[DieHardBrownsFan]

 

[Axe]

[Tour2ma]

On 3/28/2020 at 10:45 PM, hoorta said:

So call me  a little jaundiced when I've seen what's left of guys when they rolled their Harley doing 70, or gotten run over by a train. Whether its from Corona, cancer, a car accident, stomped by an elephant- doesn't matter- you're just as dead. 

As far as media reporting POV- corona deaths are only thing that matters right now- too bad if you die from any of the other things. Fair enough?

Here's the issue, h...

Covid-19 is the new kid in town and is on top of most of the other things you list. So when it takes the 70-yo Harley rider or the auto crash victim earlier than they would have crashed... it still took them in an unrelated manner.

Covid-19 is an added risk to life that did not exist 6 months ago... and a serious one to the already compromised... from diabetics to those on chemo.

Is it merely hastening their deaths? Yes, but you try telling their families that...

[The Cysko Kid]

4 hours ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

From a NYC nurse :

 

 

What would you like to say to people who are not on the front line?

The message I would like to convey to everybody who's not in health care is stay home. You know, I hate staying home, I hate being locked in my house.

But at the end of the day, the chance of you getting sick and dying is extremely, extremely high at this point. And Covid is not just focusing on the immune compromised, the old, the elderly. It's everybody at this point.

It doesn't matter who you are. It is take no prisoners. So my message is to stay at home.

In the coming weeks, what are your expectations?

I believe that this pandemic will go on until at least May or June. We in the healthcare system, especially in New York, we believe that this will go on until the summer time. The only way that I believe and that a lot of my co-workers believe that we can get a handle on this is there needs to be an entire lockdown on the entire country. And that means food delivery is shut down. That means everything is shut down except for truly essential employees. And that means police, nurses, doctors, those are the only people that need to be going out because we're truly trying to tackle this.

Anybody else needs to be at home and we need to completely lock the country down. That's the only way I think that we are going to tackle this. Otherwise, it's just going to keep going and going and going.

Cannot happen. They try that and the shooting starts quick. This isn't Italy.

[Tour2ma]

On 3/29/2020 at 5:18 PM, Gorka said:

Just learned this today. My son is a physician on the front lines treating COVID patients at Stoneybrook Hospital on Long Island. He is a nephrologist fellow (a doctor in training specializing in kidneys) and a critical care doctor.

Bless him...

What is he saying about PPE and equipment supplies?

[Tour2ma]

On 3/29/2020 at 12:00 PM, DieHardBrownsFan said:

You have to wonder why isn't Tokyo, or Seoul, or Berlin getting the same effect?

Forget them... how about Hong Kong?

The people there self-sheltered as soon as word came out of Wuhan of an outbreak. SARS was still fresh enough in their minds.

[Tour2ma]

On 3/29/2020 at 4:18 PM, hoorta said:

The bold is sort of important tia. No doubt that number is accurate. And If you contract corona the odds you may die is 1.7% or so. Also means there's a 98% chance you won't.  But as you know there's plenty of room to add unconfirmed and asymptomatic cases to the TOTAL number of cases- which will almost certainly bring the death rate percentage down.

Ah.... but when you divide total cases into deaths you are bringing the rate down thru the false, inherent assumption that none of the current case count will result in additional deaths.

Plus as cases mount and hospitals are overloaded, the lethality is only going to go in one direction... up... at least until effective drugs arrive.

[MLD Woody]

If reports are true, I should have guessed that Trump wants his signature on the stimulus checks that are going out to everyone

[Tour2ma]

On 3/29/2020 at 2:35 PM, tiamat63 said:

LOLOLOLOL.   Then you're going to be in for a real shock when you come say hi at the BB 2021 draft party.

Wait.... we're going to have a Draft party?

 

 

[Tour2ma]

On 3/29/2020 at 3:58 PM, OldBrownsFan said:

According to the doctor who has had a lot of success with these drugs he says if you wait too long and are put on a ventilator there is more chance of lung damage at that point and then these drugs are not nearly so effective.

The same doctor said that covid 19 is 3 times more contagious than regular flu and 10 times more deadly.

 

On 3/29/2020 at 5:24 PM, OldBrownsFan said:

Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES]

Are you referring to the ame Doctor in both posts?

 

[Tour2ma]

14 hours ago, The Cysko Kid said:

How to justify Battelle's slowing down  mask sterilization business?

Because it's unproven?

Also OBF's original post mentioned a denial for the company to operate at an increased capacity. Ramping up throughput can often reduce quality.

14 hours ago, The Cysko Kid said:

Hydrooxychloroquine is not an unknown quantity. The risks are known and have been known for some time. If it shows promise now is not the time to conduct years long clinical trials on a drug with effects that are known. 

Not years... we'll know in weeks... three months at the outside.

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Ah.... but when you divide total cases into deaths you are bringing the rate down thru the false, inherent assumption that none of the current case count will result in additional deaths.

Plus as cases mount and hospitals are overloaded, the lethality is only going to go in one direction... up... at least until effective drugs arrive.

Who said anything about additional deaths? Of course, there's going to be a lot more deaths. What I'm asserting since we strongly suspect a lot of the covid cases are mild or asymptomatic (when we start doing mass testing, and I just saw Abbot is going to start pumping out a million test kits a week), once we find out who those folks are- the infection to death ratio is almost certainly going to go down. And as I saw in another thread- Italy (to my mind) is padding the covid death count by tallying anyone who dies in a hospital with covid has that listed as that as the cause of death- the primary cause of death- even it was some old codger who keeled over from a heart attack or stroke. 

[Tour2ma]

14 hours ago, OldBrownsFan said:

I know we need more studies on hydroxychloroquine and zpac to be clinically studied but for now it is one of the most promising things in our tool box for those with covid 19. I want patients and their doctors to decide if they want to take this drug. What the doctor who has successfully treated 700 patients with the drug has said is once lung damage is done and patients are on ventilators these drugs are not so effective. That is why I messaged the woman on facebook who was having severe breathing problems it might be critical for her to start taking hydroxychloroquine and zpac now before her symptoms got worse and then it might be too late to take the drug.

As some have already said we are at war with an invisible enemy and you fight with the army you have and not the one you would like to have.

OK, Donald...

"Promising thing" is not a thing... it's a wish... a hope... a dream until a solidly constructed study concludes it's efficacy. I asked above if your posts were about the same Doctor. Pretty sure they are one in the same, but I'd like confirmation, please.

Your promising thing has led to chloroquine shortages. Lupus and rheumatoid arthritis users are having trouble filling Rx's, while Covid-19 fear drives some to consume them as a preventative. Even more fun? About half the side effects mimic a flu-like virus.

Did you listen to Rudy's interview with Dr. 700? I'm about halfway thru it and have already found more holes than "science". I'm still waiting for the first mention of one of his patients testing positive for Covid-19... then of course being retested after being "cured".

How do you suppose a "Family Doctor" got a hold of 1400 Covid-19 tests?

[Tour2ma]

12 hours ago, Gorka said:

Cool. Probably the easier among the engineering disciplines to earn a degree in (electrical, chemical), but you still gotta know a lot of math and be good at it.

Nice dig... which kind of Engineer are you?

[Tour2ma]

4 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Who said anything about additional deaths? Of course, there's going to be a lot more deaths. What I'm asserting since we strongly suspect a lot of the covid cases are mild or asymptomatic (when we start doing mass testing, and I just saw Abbot is going to start pumping out a million test kits a week), once we find out who those folks are- the infection to death ratio is almost certainly going to go down. And as I saw in another thread- Italy (to my mind) is padding the covid death count by tallying anyone who dies in a hospital with covid has that listed as that as the cause of death- the primary cause of death- even it was some old codger who keeled over from a heart attack or stroke. 

Simply saying that the calculation being used, i.e., Lethality = Deaths/Cases, inherently assumes none of the "cases" that have not already resulted in deaths result in "additional deaths."

It's the same with survival rate. Folks are acting like 100% - Lethality = Survival, when in fact all we know at present is that Recovered/Case = Survival...

As of this writing worldwide the approximate counts are: Cases - 786k; Deaths 38k; Recovered - 166k

So.... Lethality = 38/786 = 0.048 or 4.8%

Survival = 166/786 = 0.211 or 21.1%

That leaves 74.1% of the cases TBD. While certainly the majority of these cases will survive, not all will.

[hoorta]

2 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Simply saying that the calculation being used, i.e., Lethality = Deaths/Cases, inherently assumes none of the "cases" that have not already resulted in deaths result in "additional deaths."

It's the same with survival rate. Folks are acting like 100% - Lethality = Survival, when in fact all we know at present is that Recovered/Case = Survival...

As of this writing worldwide the approximate counts are: Cases - 786k; Deaths 38k; Recovered - 166k

So.... Lethality = 38/786 = 0.048 or 4.8%

Survival = 166/786 = 0.211 or 21.1%

That leaves 74.1% of the cases TBD. While certainly the majority of these cases will survive, not all will.

Sure, accurate on what we currently know. You're ignoring the very real possibility that there's tons of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases out there when we start doing mass screening. 

Already said - the way Italy is counting covid deaths is padding the stats from my POV. How much? Hard to say. USA- 160,000 cases 3,000 deaths 1.7%. Of diagnosed cases. 

[OldBrownsFan]

6 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

OK, Donald...

"Promising thing" is not a thing... it's a wish... a hope... a dream until a solidly constructed study concludes it's efficacy. I asked above if your posts were about the same Doctor. Pretty sure they are one in the same, but I'd like confirmation, please.

Your promising thing has led to chloroquine shortages. Lupus and rheumatoid arthritis users are having trouble filling Rx's, while Covid-19 fear drives some to consume them as a preventative. Even more fun? About half the side effects mimic a flu-like virus.

Did you listen to Rudy's interview with Dr. 700? I'm about halfway thru it and have already found more holes than "science". I'm still waiting for the first mention of one of his patients testing positive for Covid-19... then of course being retested after being "cured".

How do you suppose a "Family Doctor" got a hold of 1400 Covid-19 tests?

OK our latest Trump Derangement Syndrome victim. To root against the success of this drug because Trump supported it is insanity but that is what TDS is.

I just listened to a man who had the virus on television last night who thought he was going to die because he could not breathe and within hours of taking hydoxychloroquine and zpac he said he was 100 percent better. I also saw where some front line medical doctors and nurses are now taking these drugs as preventative measures. Israel just gave us 10 million doses and another company is donating 130 million doses. It is not some rare type of drug but one which is cheap and easily mfg. 

As for the hoarding problem is that Trump's fault or is it because of the apparent success of the drug? There is enough of this drug to go around and there are ways to limit hoarding without denying covid 19 patients the drug. In Ohio a pharmacist cannot dispense this drug unless a covid 19 patient has been positively diagnosed and for inpatient treatment as well as limiting prescriptions to 14 days. Some people hoard that is a fact. That is the reason many people cannot find toilet paper on the shelves right now. The answer is not preventing anyone from buying toilet paper but to limit buying of toilet paper and not letting some customers buy shopping carts full of it..

The posts were from the same American doctor but there are doctors all over the world using hydroxychlorine for covid 19 patients and I am seeing more doctors in our country saying this drug is beneficial.

The bottom line there is not much out there to treat covid19 patients except putting those with severe covid19 symptoms on a ventilator. I would take hydroxycholoroquine and zpac combo in a second if I had the virus with breathing problems. The patients and the doctors should make the decision to take hydroxychloroquine. The FDA seems to agree as they just approved it for covid19 patients.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/recovering-coronavirus-patient-talks-about-his-experience-am-i-going-to-live-to-see-midnight-or-the-next-day

[DieHardBrownsFan]

36 minutes ago, OldBrownsFan said:

OK our latest Trump Derangement Syndrome victim. To root against the success of this drug because Trump supported it is insanity but that is what TDS is.

I just listened to a man who had the virus on television last night who thought he was going to die because he could not breathe and within hours of taking hydoxychloroquine and zpac he said he was 100 percent better. I also saw where some front line medical doctors and nurses are now taking these drugs as preventative measures. Israel just gave us 10 million doses and another company is donating 130 million doses. It is not some rare type of drug but one which is cheap and easily mfg. 

As for the hoarding problem is that Trump's fault or is it because of the apparent success of the drug? There is enough of this drug to go around and there are ways to limit hoarding without denying covid 19 patients the drug. In Ohio a pharmacist cannot dispense this drug unless a covid 19 patient has been positively diagnosed and for inpatient treatment as well as limiting prescriptions to 14 days. Some people hoard that is a fact. That is the reason many people cannot find toilet paper on the shelves right now. The answer is not preventing anyone from buying toilet paper but to limit buying of toilet paper and not letting some customers buy shopping carts full of it..

The posts were from the same American doctor but there are doctors all over the world using hydroxychlorine for covid 19 patients and I am seeing more doctors in our country saying this drug is beneficial.

The bottom line there is not much out there to treat covid19 patients except putting those with severe covid19 symptoms on a ventilator. I would take hydroxycholoroquine and zpac combo in a second if I had the virus with breathing problems. The patients and the doctors should make the decision to take hydroxychloroquine. The FDA seems to agree as they just approved it for covid19 patients.

This isn't something you can go buy at the drug store OTC.  You need a doctors prescription so there should be no shortage as long as doctors dont prescribe it for the wrong purpose.

[OldBrownsFan]

10 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

This isn't something you can go buy at the drug store OTC.  You need a doctors prescription so there should be no shortage as long as doctors dont prescribe it for the wrong purpose.

Apparently some doctors and dentists were abusing prescribing hydroxychloroquine. Not sure reason why dentists were giving out prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine anyway except writing prescription for themselves and friends and family.

There are ways to combat that and Dewine for instance has ordered that no doctor can prescribe hydroxychloroquine unless certain condition are met such as a documented positive covid19 test, the patient must be inpatient and the prescription is for only 14 days. 

I don't like Dewine's order that you have to be inpatient to get the drug myself. I wish the restriction would be only a documented positive covid19 test so patients can have the opportunity to take the drug sooner before symptoms progress to being placed inpatient. At our local hospital I am convinced the only way you will be treated inpatient is when you are placed on a ventilator.

[Gorka]

6 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Nice dig... which kind of Engineer are you?

Even though the mechanical engineer is among the lowest paid within the engineering disciplines, Woody still needs to have a strong knowledge of basic AC/DC circuits/ Kirchoffs/ Ohms law, up to understanding semiconductors and microprocessors.

How did ya like that one?

[tiamat63]

8 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Wait.... we're going to have a Draft party?

 

 

An assumption, but I feel not a bold one.

[Gorka]

10 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Bless him...

What is he saying about PPE and equipment supplies?

Thanks.

No info on that the last time we talked. We don't call him. He prefers to call us....I'm sure PPE will come up the next time we talk if they're having shortages.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

1 hour ago, OldBrownsFan said:

At our local hospital I am convinced the only way you will be treated inpatient is when you are placed on a ventilator.

This was as of 1400 yesterday, out of 475 patients, 163 were in ICU which means they might be on a venilator, the others wouldn't be.

163

Number of ICU admissions

475

Number of Hospitalizations in Ohio

[MLD Woody]

48 minutes ago, Gorka said:

Even though the mechanical engineer is among the lowest paid within the engineering disciplines, Woody still needs to have a strong knowledge of basic AC/DC circuits/ Kirchoffs/ Ohms law, up to understanding semiconductors and microprocessors.

How did ya like that one?

Are you basing difficulty on pay? Because that's not a good way to go about it. 

 

You never answered Tour tho, are you an electrical engineer?

[Gorka]

36 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

Are you basing difficulty on pay? Because that's not a good way to go about it. 

 

You never answered Tour tho, are you an electrical engineer?

Not at all. Earning a degree in any engineering field is not easy..

Although my job title is FSE...Field Service Engineer, I am not really an engineer, but my background is in electronics. I work for a company that manufactures equipment used mainly in medical research and diagnostics. I'm the one who bitches at engineers over the way they design the stuff.lol

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[MLD Woody]

3 minutes ago, Gorka said:

Not at all. Earning a degree in any engineering field is not easy..

Although my job title is FSE...Field Service Engineer, I am not really an engineer, but my background is in electronics. I work for a company that manufactures equipment used mainly in medical research and diagnostics. I'm the one who bitches at engineers over the way they design the stuff.lol

Hey now, I bitch at engineers for doing that too haha.

A manufacturing engineer is tasked with making whatever the design engineer created. A good design engineer is closely linked with manufacturing throughout the whole process. "Design for manufacturability" is lost on a lot of them. If they don't, then we receive designs late in the process that we have to tell them need to be changed. Fun stuff.

I love telling them off haha. I just need to be able to speak their language and speak to the operators. And then management. Just dialing up the "engineering speak" as needed.