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OldBrownsFan

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I have never been in the stock market. I have always been fearful of the ups and downs and uncertainty of it. So if I post something here not correct I will gladly stand corrected. Buying and selling at the right time is the key. I think anyone selling their stock right now is irrational. If you own stock right now why not ride this out as stocks will certainly rebound? If I were ever to get into the stock market right now is the time I would be looking to get into it. There seems to me to be bargains to be had by buying in low. The uncertainty would be not knowing how much lower stocks will continue to fall. We know however the fundamentals of our economy were very strong before the coronavirus and once we get a handle on this pandemic (which is going to happen) stock prices I think are likely to shoot back up quickly. 

 

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You're better off just leaving it in.  People are panicing into thinking this is the end of the world.  If it is, your stock is shit anyways.

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I think old man Potter in "its a wonderful life" had it right on this one. Those who panicked during the Great Depression and lost everything vs. those who kept their heads. Those selling their stocks right now seem to me to be making a big mistake because they are panicking.

Now I have to go and repent for siding with old man Potter...😁

 

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Historically, the stock market ALWAYS rebounds. You have to ride out the storm. There is also how you invest - putting it all in one thing doesn't balance out. There's high risk/big return, and low risk/smaller return, and stocks vs bonds.

That's all I know - my Wife and her friends were in a stock club together - they did really, really well.... at one especially high point, they cashed in. Pretty cool, if it works.lol

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18 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

Historically, the stock market ALWAYS rebounds. You have to ride out the storm. There is also how you invest - putting it all in one thing doesn't balance out. There's high risk/big return, and low risk/smaller return, and stocks vs bonds.

That's all I know - my Wife and her friends were in a stock club together - they did really, really well.... at one especially high point, they cashed in. Pretty cool, if it works.lol

It is all about buying low and selling high. I don't understand why those would be selling their stocks at a loss right now when they should know the stock market is going to rebound. They need to just ride it out. If you don't go into the stock market with that kind of attitude you probably shouldn't be in the stock market.

On the flip side this is probably a good time for a person to get into the stock market with those panicking and selling their stocks at a loss. The tricky part is guessing how low that stocks will fall until hitting bottom.

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Hindsight is 20/20 I've lost a huge amount of money and I'm actually furious about the hysteria perpetrated by the media. 

Of course we had no way of knowing they would freak out over this version of the flu so there wasn't really an idea that I should have moved things into different accounts.

Sadly enough this will probably be the end of Trumps presidency and the will take over and put the clamps on everything ensuring the recovery will take many years longer than it should.

WSS

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1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

Hindsight is 20/20 I've lost a huge amount of money and I'm actually furious about the hysteria perpetrated by the media. 

Of course we had no way of knowing they would freak out over this version of the flu so there wasn't really an idea that I should have moved things into different accounts.

Sadly enough this will probably be the end of Trumps presidency and the will take over and put the clamps on everything ensuring the recovery will take many years longer than it should.

WSS

I agree. If I were to get into the stock market I would wait until after the election. Trump's cutting taxes and govt regulations got us the great economy and democrat higher taxes and more govt regulations will take a bad situation and throw gasoline on the fire.

I don't know how this will play out. I hope it doesn't keep Trump from being re-elected in 2020. The left will not keep from playing politics and now are calling the coronavirus Trump's Chernobyl...apparently hurricane Katrina wasn't a Russian enough analogy

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1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

Hindsight is 20/20 I've lost a huge amount of money and I'm actually furious about the hysteria perpetrated by the media. 

Of course we had no way of knowing they would freak out over this version of the flu so there wasn't really an idea that I should have moved things into different accounts.

Sadly enough this will probably be the end of Trumps presidency and the will take over and put the clamps on everything ensuring the recovery will take many years longer than it should.

WSS

On paper I have lost a lot, but I will not be panicked into selling now. I had kept enough out to ride it through the end of 2022. And I arranged minimum distribution via transfer of stock out to a normal account without having to sell any. The money for taxes is set aside and if the value is low at the end of 2020, the amount required for MDR in 2021can be far lower than it is for 2020. That I set aside as cash, but I don't have to take all the cash now since I can just transfer value in stock and pay the tax as cash.

I was in charge of my Mom's IRA in 2008/2009 and much to the chagrin of siblings I did not panic like one of them was doing and sell out low. He was threatening to sue me if I didn't sell and I told him any lawyer would tell him I had full legal financial control and tell him to just stuff it. Many years later after we had split up the inherited IRA he apologized for his panic induced threats and thanked me for not listening.

Point is that it's too late to sell out anyway unless you have no choice. I even have an extra amount just cooling it on the sidelines that I could easily move to a S&P 500 mutual fund if I sense the panic is done for good.

BTW a local chain grocery store (Randalls) has panicked and is closing their doors at noon today until further notice. Now that is scary. How the fuck is anyone going to survive if grocery stores close? I'm sending an email to my cousin who is an area manager for HEB which has the other two grocers near us so I can get a heads up if they ever do such a stupid thing.

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5 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

On paper I have lost a lot, but I will not be panicked into selling now. I had kept enough out to ride it through the end of 2022. And I arranged minimum distribution via transfer of stock out to a normal account without having to sell any. The money for taxes is set aside and if the value is low at the end of 2020, the amount required for MDR in 2021can be far lower than it is for 2020. That I set aside as cash, but I don't have to take all the cash now since I can just transfer value in stock and pay the tax as cash.

I was in charge of my Mom's IRA in 2008/2009 and much to the chagrin of siblings I did not panic like one of them was doing and sell out low. He was threatening to sue me if I didn't sell and I told him any lawyer would tell him I had full legal financial control and tell him to just stuff it. Many years later after we had split up the inherited IRA he apologized for his panic induced threats and thanked me for not listening.

Point is that it's too late to sell out anyway unless you have no choice. I even have an extra amount just cooling it on the sidelines that I could easily move to a S&P 500 mutual fund if I sense the panic is done for good.

BTW a local chain grocery store (Randalls) has panicked and is closing their doors at noon today until further notice. Now that is scary. How the fuck is anyone going to survive if grocery stores close? I'm sending an email to my cousin who is an area manager for HEB which has the other two grocers near us so I can get a heads up if they ever do such a stupid thing.

That's a good idea. When people get bored with the panic it will start to rebound. All of my funds are with one company and I can move them back and forth without any penalty. I was hoping to wait until collection time at which point I would move things into a lower risk pain lower profit series of Investments to hold for a few months but this Panic is fucked everything up. Oh well I'm still fine.

Just as an anecdote right before the last crash my broker talk my dad into putting all his money into annuities which word affected by the drop in stocks. A lucky move from then on he believed my broker was God!

WSS

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3 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

That's a good idea. When people get bored with the panic it will start to rebound. All of my funds are with one company and I can move them back and forth without any penalty. I was hoping to wait until collection time at which point I would move things into a lower risk pain lower profit series of Investments to hold for a few months but this Panic is fucked everything up. Oh well I'm still fine.

WSS

Yeah, I was lucky I did not know I could take the MRD as stock equivalent transfer when I sold out enough for cash that stayed in the IRA for two year's worth. But I thought it over and discussed it with the broker who verified that I could indeed just keep most of the cash and just use what was needed as tax payment to IRS and transfer stocks from IRA to normal without having to sell anything. Now I have enough cash on hand to last about 4 years doing it that way and maybe more if the market does not recover well enough by the end of the year, the total value of which sets the MRD for the next tax year.

I should write a book about how dummies can occasionally stumble into getting it right like the clock striking 12 twice a day.🙈🕛

I do hope this helps others here with stock in IRA's. Just transfer out in value what you are required to without selling low if you have enough cash to pay off Uncle Sam.👍

There is a form you can fill out to do that legally. Ask a broker.

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I thought about getting into the stock market when Trump was elected because I knew tax cuts and less govt regulations almost always means economic success. A friend of mine did and he has made out very well in the stock market the past 3 years. The curve ball here is the unforeseen coronavirus that nobody could have predicted. I don't see the fear and hysteria lasting over a few months as people realize we are not dealing with the bubonic plague and most people will get this flu without too much problem.

I don't like the fear and panic but shutting down all events like the NCAA tournament and other events is probably a good idea to keep large numbers of people of getting this flu at the same time and then having our hospitals over run.I think that is the goal here. I still think they could have had the basketball tournament played in empty arenas and people could have watched on television instead of totally doing away with the tournament.

And the Dayton Flyers this year had a record year in basketball, might have been their best team since 67 when they came in 2nd in the NCAA tournament losing to a UCLA powerhouse at the time............😥

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I've gotten two I haven't touched and don't plan on touching until I have to start withdrawls at age 70.

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Master Troller.

 

image.png.09625209ded9715da0bb80efd5bebf7b.png

 

Interesting thing is, on the downside the Market Circuit Breakers kick in at about 7-8%, but there are also upside Circuit Breakers (which look to be lower % wise).

 

The Market opened this morning locked to the upside, then fluctuated until the speech, where can see by price & volume the Market loved it.

 

Short of coming out and saying they already had the cure for it, it couldn't have been much better.

 

 

 

I still think we'll have some hiccups until things level out, as they've pretty much caused a short term Recession with what they've done.

 

Short term good chance of some more down turn, but the long term is going to be a Rocket once everything else kicks in.

 

 

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7 hours ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

I've gotten two I haven't touched and don't plan on touching until I have to start withdrawls at age 70.

That's age 70 1/2 years old and the IRS have nice and easy publications and forms to do this.   I turn 70 this year so I'll have to start next year.

.......The required distribution rules apply to owners of traditional, Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) and Savings Incentive Match Plans for Employees (SIMPLE) IRAs but not Roth IRAs while the original owner is alive. They also apply to participants in various workplace retirement plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457(b) plans.

An IRA trustee must either report the amount of the RMD to the IRA owner or offer to calculate it for the owner. Often, the trustee shows the RMD amount on Form 5498 in Box 12b. For a 2018 RMD, this amount is on the 2017 Form 5498 normally issued to the owner during January 2019.......

 

Oh and the stock market I've been in it for about 48 years and have been through 7 crashes and recoveries in my lifetime, I don't know if this thing can be counted as a crash like 2008, 2000 or 1987 yet.

 

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I got out of the market largely in 08..  What I have in there yet I am not sweating. It will come back..

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18 hours ago, OldBrownsFan said:

I have never been in the stock market. I have always been fearful of the ups and downs and uncertainty of it. So if I post something here not correct I will gladly stand corrected. Buying and selling at the right time is the key. I think anyone selling their stock right now is irrational. If you own stock right now why not ride this out as stocks will certainly rebound? If I were ever to get into the stock market right now is the time I would be looking to get into it. There seems to me to be bargains to be had by buying in low. The uncertainty would be not knowing how much lower stocks will continue to fall. We know however the fundamentals of our economy were very strong before the coronavirus and once we get a handle on this pandemic (which is going to happen) stock prices I think are likely to shoot back up quickly. 

 

A wise financial advisor told me to put money into "buckets". Unless you're  living paycheck to  paycheck,  it works like  this. What do  you need for  current  expenses?  In a year? In 5 years? 10? You manage money that you're going to  need in 10 years differently than  what you  might  need  tomorrow.  

The general rule is the bigger the  risk, the bigger the  potential for gains- or losses. Why most people  buy mutual  funds to minimize the  risk. Individual stocks can be plenty risky.  Checking the  market  today,  a couple  stocks went up 40%, and a couple  went down  40%. If you had made a moderate investment in Microsoft or Amazon when they were first offered,  you'd be very  wealthy now. 

Every advisor is going to  tell you  you can't  time the market.  Lately  there's  been a ton of herd buying and selling.  Yes, there's stocks that are bargains,  but you have to  have the nerve to go out and buy them. 

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10 hours ago, Axe said:

I got out of the market largely in 08..  What I have in there yet I am not sweating. It will come back..

I've actually been in since 2008 or so albeit through mutual funds.

WSS

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6 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

I've actually been in since 2008 or so albeit through mutual funds.

WSS

If you stayed in it throughout the 2007-2009 mortgage mess decline when the Dow (along with everything else) went from ~14,100 to a low of 6,500 and then right after Obama took office in 2009 right through the following 12 year period you made out like a bandit !   People who panicked and sold got killed.

You couldn't miss on anything stocks related including mutual funds  -but- not at all in any cash investments like CDs or even most bonds which all basically died right up to today.

The 10 year and 30 year bonds have recently hit all time record low payouts which affects things like mortgages which were going below 3.3% fixed 30 last week.  People are refinancing at record lows again !

SO what to do ?   The market and the traders will be very active with their largely computerized buy/sell rapid trades which will keep volitality very high.  Most long term buy and hold people should hold and wait and see what happens.  BUT if you're getting ready to retire or need your money soon you better talk to a trusted financial professional.

Oh BTW just FYI only I have been in the stock market since the early 1970s and have an undergraduate minor in ECON and an MBA with a dual major in MGT and FINANCE.

Make sure whomever you get your advice from is qualified.  (not your drunk know-it-all uncle Joe :lol:)

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20 hours ago, mjp28 said:

If you stayed in it throughout the 2007-2009 mortgage mess decline when the Dow (along with everything else) went from ~14,100 to a low of 6,500 and then right after Obama took office in 2009 right through the following 12 year period you made out like a bandit !   People who panicked and sold got killed.

You couldn't miss on anything stocks related including mutual funds  -but- not at all in any cash investments like CDs or even most bonds which all basically died right up to today.

The 10 year and 30 year bonds have recently hit all time record low payouts which affects things like mortgages which were going below 3.3% fixed 30 last week.  People are refinancing at record lows again !

SO what to do ?   The market and the traders will be very active with their largely computerized buy/sell rapid trades which will keep volitality very high.  Most long term buy and hold people should hold and wait and see what happens.  BUT if you're getting ready to retire or need your money soon you better talk to a trusted financial professional.

Oh BTW just FYI only I have been in the stock market since the early 1970s and have an undergraduate minor in ECON and an MBA with a dual major in MGT and FINANCE.

Make sure whomever you get your advice from is qualified.  (not your drunk know-it-all uncle Joe :lol:)

Didn't bother to ask. I know he's a cfp but I'm not sure if where are for what he attended College. Franklin Templeton broker but can get me anything I ask for. I like keeping all my stuff with Franklin Templeton because I can move it back and forth between any of the investment products without a penalty. The hit I took was substantial across the board but has crept up somewhat. Seems like a lot of guys want to sell me annuities, not my guy though.

WSS

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On 3/15/2020 at 10:12 AM, Westside Steve said:

Didn't bother to ask. I know he's a cfp but I'm not sure if where are for what he attended College. Franklin Templeton broker but can get me anything I ask for. I like keeping all my stuff with Franklin Templeton because I can move it back and forth between any of the investment products without a penalty. The hit I took was substantial across the board but has crept up somewhat. Seems like a lot of guys want to sell me annuities, not my guy though.

WSS

I've done well with annuities for my late mother-in-law and my wife but in general I'd stick with good well performing mutual funds, they're pretty simple and easy to go from fund to fund in your plan or portfolio.

There are some mutual funds that I've had for a few decades now that are double digits gainers year after year, that's the #1 thing I look for in a buy and hold fund...... which is what mutual funds were designed for.

And Franklin Templeton is a pretty good name.  

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Want a good site for general mutual fund information try https://www.morningstar.com

There are a lot of sites out there many are sponsored by specific brokerage houses and most are absolutely FREE.

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On 3/13/2020 at 1:27 PM, DieHardBrownsFan said:

I've gotten two I haven't touched and don't plan on touching until I have to start withdrawls at age 70.

Just an FYI- this year, Uncle Sam upped the age that you have to start taking required distributions to 72, assuming you hit 70-1\2 in 2020 or later.  :)  It doesn't affect me, as I already pull out what would be the required amount for living expenses.  Most investment companies are conscientious, and will send you a notice that you're due to start withdrawing money.  

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/secure-act-includes-one-critical-tax-change-that-will-send-estate-planners-reeling-2019-12-30

"New law: The Secure Act increases the age after which you must begin taking RMDs from 70 1/2 to 72. But this favorable development only applies to folks who reach 70 1/2 after 2019. So, if you turned 70 1/2 in 2019 or earlier, you’re unaffected. But if you will turn 70 1/2 in 2020 or later, you won’t need to start taking RMDs until after attaining age 72. As under prior law, if you’re still working after reaching the magic age and you don’t own over 5% of the employer, you can postpone taking RMDs from your employer’s plan(s) until after you’ve retired."

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35 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Just an FYI- this year, Uncle Sam upped the age that you have to start taking required distributions to 72, assuming you hit 70-1\2 in 2020 or later.  :)  It doesn't affect me, as I already pull out what would be the required amount for living expenses.  Most investment companies are conscientious, and will send you a notice that you're due to start withdrawing money.  

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/secure-act-includes-one-critical-tax-change-that-will-send-estate-planners-reeling-2019-12-30

"New law: The Secure Act increases the age after which you must begin taking RMDs from 70 1/2 to 72. But this favorable development only applies to folks who reach 70 1/2 after 2019. So, if you turned 70 1/2 in 2019 or earlier, you’re unaffected. But if you will turn 70 1/2 in 2020 or later, you won’t need to start taking RMDs until after attaining age 72. As under prior law, if you’re still working after reaching the magic age and you don’t own over 5% of the employer, you can postpone taking RMDs from your employer’s plan(s) until after you’ve retired."

Well 73 coming this week so I was already screwed. But I can't complain. My Mom was such a penny pincher that she said she wanted to die that one year when there was no inheritance tax.  LOL. But she did it in a year when it was a $5mil tax break so my siblings and I have no complaints other than wishing she had never gotten the Alzheimers which killed her. I would have gladly traded the inherited IRA for another 10 years with her living nearby.

BTW the rules are changing on inherited IRAs now too. Must empty them out over a 10 year period. Mine started a year after she died and lasts for 21 years total. Ones like mine are not affected by the new rule, just future inherited IRAs.

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40 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Well 73 coming this week so I was already screwed. But I can't complain. My Mom was such a penny pincher that she said she wanted to die that one year when there was no inheritance tax.  LOL. But she did it in a year when it was a $5mil tax break so my siblings and I have no complaints other than wishing she had never gotten the Alzheimers which killed her. I would have gladly traded the inherited IRA for another 10 years with her living nearby.

BTW the rules are changing on inherited IRAs now too. Must empty them out over a 10 year period. Mine started a year after she died and lasts for 21 years total. Ones like mine are not affected by the new rule, just future inherited IRAs.

and who do you have to thank?

The GOP congressfolks and your handy-dandy Real American Uncle Trumpy, by golly.

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3 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

and who do you have to thank?

The GOP congressfolks and your handy-dandy Real American Uncle Trumpy, by golly.

No cal she died during Obama's admin in 2011. By then the IRA had recovered quite well. The rule on changing it to 10 years to empty it came in with trumpy. And that is a horrible rule because it costs a lot more in taxes since you take out bigger chunks right from the start. The way mine works is divide the entire amount by 21 the first year, 20 the second, 19 the 3rd, etc. Under the new rule you divide by 10, 9, 8,............1 and it's all gone after that. Since it comes out faster it can put you into a higher tax bracket and cost you more if you start out with a large enough IRA.

The run since 2009 has been good and steady up until now regardless of D or R admin. I will not blame trumpy for the effects of this virus and the Russian sabotage of oil prices on the stock market. Give me some credit for not going overboard on him with that. Neither is his fault IMO.

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On 3/13/2020 at 7:16 AM, OldBrownsFan said:

I have never been in the stock market. I have always been fearful of the ups and downs and uncertainty of it. So if I post something here not correct I will gladly stand corrected. Buying and selling at the right time is the key. I think anyone selling their stock right now is irrational. If you own stock right now why not ride this out as stocks will certainly rebound? If I were ever to get into the stock market right now is the time I would be looking to get into it. There seems to me to be bargains to be had by buying in low. The uncertainty would be not knowing how much lower stocks will continue to fall. We know however the fundamentals of our economy were very strong before the coronavirus and once we get a handle on this pandemic (which is going to happen) stock prices I think are likely to shoot back up quickly.

If you don't have to be in the market, then don't be... but since your savings account rates are essentially losing ground to inflation, then you may want to consider investing a small percentage of your savings.

If you don't know anything about the markets, then it's best to go with a full-service firm such as Raymond James for help. But if you are determined to go it alone then most any of the big on-line firms will do you... and all offer free trades, no fees, etc., etc. Just stick with a market index like SPY (the S&P 500 Spyder ETF) and go in increments starting with like 1/6th of the total now.

This market correction is going to get worse before it gets better. We won't get a handle on it until we have a vaccine... which will not be available until Spring 2020. So if this (these) Coronavirus follows the example of the 1918 flu, this fall could be much worse than what we are currently going thru.

Also know this... we are in structurally a different market than we've been in for the last 11 years. The bottoming of the 2008 Great Recession in early 2009 saw the start of an eleven year Bull Market. Last week that market ended. We are now in a Bear Market.

The average Bear market lasts 14 months. (How far away is Spring, 2020?) The average decline of the S&P 500 in a Bear Market is 33%. Friday the S&P closed down 20.1%

It's likely gonna get worse.

 

Buying and selling "at the right time" is not "the key"... that's "trading". Investing smartly is the key. And smart investing includes several disciplines... starting with work and not getting greedy. Not that I'm smart all the time, but...

 

I rode the deficit-spending, tax-cut-fueled, massive Republican stimulus surge through most of 2019 with less than 5% cash on hand. Raised it to 10% in January and got it to a little over 22% in February when the charts went vertical. I've been buying dips and selling (up until Friday... Friday happened too fast to react to) rips since this Corona correction began. Right now mycash is back down to 12% or so.

So I need more rips... :D

And I had one lined up for tomorrow. The futures were up nearly 10% this morning and then the Fed cut the prime rate to 0%... As our fearless leader heralded te cut at the start the now daily, Corona presser saying, "I think the markets will love this. Ilove this. It makes me happy. It makes me very happy."... and futures promptly fell to -4.5%.

The market simply does not understand the why of the cuts and the size of the cuts. And when the market does not understand it sells due to the uncertainty.

So don't take stock advice from Trump... ;)

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On 3/13/2020 at 10:24 AM, TexasAg1969 said:

On paper I have lost a lot, but I will not be panicked into selling now. I had kept enough out to ride it through the end of 2022. And I arranged minimum distribution via transfer of stock out to a normal account without having to sell any. The money for taxes is set aside and if the value is low at the end of 2020, the amount required for MDR in 2021can be far lower than it is for 2020. That I set aside as cash, but I don't have to take all the cash now since I can just transfer value in stock and pay the tax as cash.

I was in charge of my Mom's IRA in 2008/2009 and much to the chagrin of siblings I did not panic like one of them was doing and sell out low. He was threatening to sue me if I didn't sell and I told him any lawyer would tell him I had full legal financial control and tell him to just stuff it. Many years later after we had split up the inherited IRA he apologized for his panic induced threats and thanked me for not listening.Point is that it's too late to sell out anyway unless you have no choice. I even have an extra amount just cooling it on the sidelines that I could easily move to a S&P 500 mutual fund if I sense the panic is done for good.

Ditto and yup... what's in the market now is basically there for the duration except in case of emergency.

Don't "Mutual Fund"... go the SPY ETF route. Much lower expenses...

On 3/13/2020 at 12:27 PM, DieHardBrownsFan said:

I've gotten two I haven't touched and don't plan on touching until I have to start withdrawls at age 70.

Ditto except for a little dip here and there... at least that was what I was doing until I looked at the tax implications of waiting. Once I did look last year I started pulling a steady monthly amount to reduce the size of those "17ths" waiting around the corner for us. Minor increase in taxes today more than offset by reduction in the future burden.

That said... I may discontinue or at minimum reduce the amount later this year to preserve cash for purchases... I may even recontribute some of the earlier proceeds now sitting around earning 0.1%.

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