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OldBrownsFan

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Yesterday, Thursday, the markets rallied on reopening optimism... so I got to sell more... and it was poised to do the same again today... at least to start the day. (You never know how a Friday is going to finish... often there's a sell-off late in the day to reduce holdings thru a weekend what who knows what can happen).  One announcement that added to the optimism was NYSE's announcement that the trading floor, which has been closed for weeks under NY's and NYC's shut-in policy, was going to be allowed to partially reopen under strict guidelines on May 26th. Traders reporting to the floor will also have to sign a waiver.

However, before the open this AM word flying was we were/ Trump was about to heat up the trade battle with China over Huawei, a giant tech company known to include "backdoors" in servers, cell phones and other devices to facilitate espionage, business and government.

The battle over Huawei has been an on again/off again thing with Trump. At first he followed his Intel and came down hard on them banning US suppliers from selling to them, then relented when Xi cried for relief which was given. In the end it looked like the early, tough position was simply to apply pressure in furthering trade talks. (Editorial comment: So they got their espionage supplied and we sold soy beans.)

Anyway... the renewed threat brought a harsh response from China and futures went negative and the market opened down. I bought some tech and sold some Pot Stocks, which were all up based upon one company's report of a sharp sales increase.

As the day has gone on the markets have recovered essentially all their early losses and settled down.

 

Wanted to include some notes from a NYSE fossil named Art Cashin (great name for a trader). Art is the Floor Director for UBS... loves whisky (often on Friday's refers to "amrinating some ice cubes")... and sings Irish tunes on St. Patty's Day. He's a very respected elder statesman among market watchers and I pay attention to what he says. One caveat.... being hardcore "old-school" he tends to reference "The Dow" (the Dow Jones Industrial Average or DJIA) more than the other indices.

Anyway here are the notes:

  • We're in a "testing period". The Bulls are clearly on the defensive. V-shape recovery hard to believe.
  • Thursday Art pegged S&P 2790 as a critical level. We bounced off the DJIA's 50-day moving average.
  • Huawei... concern Administration will adopt anti-China theme going into election elevating market uncertainty for weeks or months.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

More Tour cherry pickie.

Why the Dow Is Skyrocketing | The Motley Fool

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/06/06/...

All 30 Dow components are green as the index is back in positive territory for the year, with Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) 6% increase leading the charge today. Additional federal reserve action ...

Author: Dave Williamson

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Personally I'm not far from where I was right before the crash. And that's after the covid-19 bulshit and the rioting and looting by the Democrats. I wonder what the skunks in the media have up their sleeve next?

There's still five months left and they're going to have to do as much damage as possible.

WSS

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Well, I don’t think the Dems can use the tanking economy as a political weapon in the near term.

The S&P 200 day moving average is trending upward, and it looks like the market as a whole is on the upswing.

 I’m sure they will develop another strategy before November.

 

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Propelling the United States and it's people to greater things couldn't be further from the Dems focus. For them and the globalists it's all about grasping power, and control.. And there is no action they won't employ to that end. If that isn't obvious to everyone in the nation, then you simply haven't been paying attention for the last 3+ yrs..

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20 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

.97   now 1.11 so far.

So I'm pretty happy with that. On the other hand people on unemployment because they're making more than they did working need to be booted off when their jobs reopen.

WSS

this is an EXCELLENT POINT. I have heard stories of folks who are disgusted that fellow coworkers got ANGRY when their jobs opened up. It's similar to unions - some members want to raise hell to go on strike - because they want a vacation to go on trips etc, especially when they've used up their own vacation already.

    Corrupt advantage is convenient when they can get away with it. Worse yet, when they are told they are "victims" of whatever, and DESERVE that corrupt convenience.

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  • 1 month later...
2 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Incredible in any market will TESLA still go up more ?

 

Screenshot_2020-07-14_094324.jpg

Tesla stock is an anomaly.

I can’t fathom how the stock of a company that’s shown 4 profitable quarters in the past 10 years, continues to climb.

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Hindsight is always 20/20 but can you imagine if you bought in during the recent market pullback at about $500 and watch it scream up to about $1700 like a rocket.

None of this is normal behavior but is it too hot to touch now or hop on it for more gain.......or short it ?    I think I'll just watch it for awhile.  From my StockSpy........

 

Screenshot_2020-07-14_124924.jpg

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2 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Hindsight is always 20/20 but can you imagine if you bought in during the recent market pullback at about $500 and watch it scream up to about $1700 like a rocket.

None of this is normal behavior but is it too hot to touch now or hop on it for more gain.......or short it ?    I think I'll just watch it for awhile.  From my StockSpy........

@ $1,500 a share too rich for me to buy any...  Just like Amazon or Google. 

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On 7/14/2020 at 3:15 PM, hoorta said:

@ $1,500 a share too rich for me to buy any...  Just like Amazon or Google. 

All of those $500 and up share prices are basically big chips for the wealthy or institutional investors to play with.

I've always liked to find plays in the $10 and up crowd.

Now it's fun to play around with the what used to be called penny stocks to see if maybe you can catch the occasional big winner.   But I always remember this old saying "penny stocks are penny stocks for a reason" !

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18 hours ago, mjp28 said:

All of those $500 and up share prices are basically big chips for the wealthy or institutional investors to play with.

I've always liked to find plays in the $10 and up crowd.

Now it's fun to play around with the what used to be called penny stocks to see if maybe you can catch the occasional big winner.   But I always remember this old saying "penny stocks are penny stocks for a reason" !

Dealer, hit that 20. There are four aces in the deck...

WSS

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If the stock market is good for one thing it's change and at the same time if you look far enough back it's no change well most of the time.  Here's one example from the Standard and Poor's 500 index which sometimes is a better index than even the DJIA or the "Dow 30" which is only made up of 30 stocks out of thousands.  Now that said we are still in some choppy unknown waters and you better have your lifejacket handy when talking about the market in general.

This concerns index turnover no not like an apple turnover but the company turnover within the S&P 500 index itself.

 

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Ever hear about sayings like "the canary in a coalmine" and wonder if they are worth paying attention to ?  Well here's one about the S&P 500 you might want to watch.

It is about the weighting of the market indicies and what's behind them.  The DOW or the DOW 30 or the DJIA (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) is only made up of 30 of thousands of stocks and a few can pull the whole index up or down.  The S&P 500 currently has 505 stocks in it and can vary some.  The NASDAQ which used to be referred to as the "tech heavy NASDAQ" and for good reason.  There are many other indicies that are made up of various types and classes of stocks.

Many people like to follow the S&P and for good reason -but- you might want to check this out.  From Yahoo finance July 27, 2020.......

Mega-cap tech stocks face mega risks

It’s the hottest trade in the stock market.

We’re talking about investors betting on Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGLGOOG).

These five stocks represent 1% of the names in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) but over a fifth of the market value. They’re the reason why the S&P is up. And everyone’s a bit nervous about it as these stocks have decoupled from the rest of the market and valuations are getting stretched.

This week comes with a slew of earnings announcements. Facebook announces second quarter results on Wednesday. Apple, Amazon and Alphabet announce on Thursday. Earnings announcements tend to be catalysts for volatility.

And while these announcements may reveal something crucial about the near term for these companies, it’s their long-term prospects that are being called into question as the CEOs of Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet head to the Hill. On Wednesday, these execs will testify before the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee in what’s expected to be the opposite of a lovefest. This comes following a year-long investigation into how these companies compete with smaller rivals.

 

 
 

“We are looking to wrap this up and propose a series of recommendations including legislation that will allow us to deal with anti competitive patterns that we see,” committee member Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) said to Yahoo Finance EIC Andy Serwer.

It’s unclear what exactly will come of all this. But tighter regulation isn’t out of the question. And that could be bad news for the stocks.

“In the past, antitrust regulation has led to slower growth and lower valuations for affected companies, including the MSFT rulings that coincided with the popping of the Tech Bubble in 2000,” Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin wrote on Wednesday. “In the two months around those rulings, MSFT declined by nearly 45%, lagging the S&P 500 by roughly 35 percentage points.“

Strategists argue earnings justify the stock prices

“The record degree of concentration in the US equity market has continued to rise,” Kostin said. “These stocks have returned 35% YTD, compared with -5% for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks, and each of the five set a new record high this month.”..........CONTINUED.........

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Another one of my favorite tools in analyzing stocks and the market in general P/E ratios this one is for the S&P....... what does it tell you ????

Screenshot_2020-07-27_113158.jpg

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  • 3 months later...

Thursday 10-29-2020 Yahoo Finance, some interesting things concerning historic GDP data and what's going on right now. Good or not so good you be the judge.

No matter what there are some big numbers there !  

 

Screenshot_2020-10-29_084432.jpg

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I get daily Yahoo Finance and Yahoo Sports newsletters to start my day but they do not give me a transferrable link like most stores.

I googled up Yahoo Finance to get the whole story if anyone is interested in reading it.  There is a whole lot of stuff going on in our country and the world right now to say the least.  :o

It's filled with all kinds of data like:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance print on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

3Q GDP, annualized quarter-over-quarter: 33.1% vs. 32.0% expected, -31.4% in the second quarter

3Q Personal Consumption: 40.7% vs. 38.9% expected, -33.2% in the second quarter

3Q GDP Price Index: 3.6% vs. 2.9% expected, -1.8% in the second quarter

3Q Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 3.5% vs. 4.0% expected, -0.8% in the second quarter

SO here it is.....  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q3-gdp-gross-domestic-product-usa-coronavirus-pandemic-181533194.html

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If you're interested in getting the Yahoo Finance Morning Brief google that up and hit subscribe.  It's filled with all kinds of data like the below, nice if you're a stock market guy or a serious 401(k) investor.  Here is also a page link:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-brief-ibm-makes-biggest-acquisition-ever-101648779.html

 

Screenshot_2020-10-29_103342.jpg

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
32 minutes ago, DieHardBrownsFan said:

My money inside my mattress never loses or gains.  

You will gradually lose value over time do to inflation -but- inflation has been very low over the last decade or more.

You might  gain some value numismatically if the bills go up value but that's rare now.

Your biggest risk is theft, fire or you forget it's there.  :huh:

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according to the department of commerce in 2015 420 billion $ were invested from other countries into AMERICAN  companies that dropped to 136 billion in 2020 and we for the very first time got took over by china at 138 billion

some buisness  man trump was 

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9 hours ago, ATOM said:

according to the department of commerce in 2015 420 billion $ were invested from other countries into AMERICAN  companies that dropped to 136 billion in 2020 and we for the very first time got took over by china at 138 billion

some buisness  man trump was 

So you Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi got your wish. Great.

WSS

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11 hours ago, Canton Dawg said:

I reallocated my portfolio on January 1st, mainly because I’m retiring in about 4 days!

I went with a balanced index fund (60% stocks & 40% bonds).

Sounds like a solid plan. Are you older than me? I'm 68.

By the way Die Hard the mattress idea it's going to backfire. I would be in a another line of work if my predictions were guaranteed but from here it seems like crazy Joe's policies are going to light the fire for massive inflation. We shall see. So what I'd Tire mattress full of hundred dollar bills might get you a gallon of gas.

WSS

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12 hours ago, Canton Dawg said:

I reallocated my portfolio on January 1st, mainly because I’m retiring in about 4 days!

I went with a balanced index fund (60% stocks & 40% bonds).

Now more than I can ever remember in my almost 50 years of being in and around the stocks, bonds and other cash related things have I ever seen such a long period of a  "dead cash" as an investment option.   Thanks to the Fed being at or near ZERO% for awhile now which determines the prime rate (fed + 3% = prime, now 0.25% fed + 3% = 3.25% US prime  rate) and everything else up the chain to determine credit and savings rates.

You can now get below prime borrowing rates like mortgage rates for qualified borrowers which means that banks and everyone else is paying near ZERO% for any savings accounts.  Great time to borrow money but that is NOT 🚫 wise if you're getting older......and we all will be there eventually.

So what to do with your money especially if you're near or at retirement age ?  Can you risk a major stock market correction or sustained crash ?

My advice is everyone have some emergency money in cash and/or easy to recover cash equivalent funds like CDs. Precious metals like gold an silver coins or boullion can be a small part of that as long as you can safely store and retrieve them.

Bonds are ok but make sure you know what you are getting into.  The age old cash/bonds formulas are ok but just realize that cash now is relatively dead as an investment.  Now you're seeing more of a combination of cash/bond/stock funds or index accounts-but-be careful and ready to go to cash or cash/bonds quickly if necessary. I've been through 8 market crashes or corrections and you generally just ride them out unless you can no longer risk it.

Everything else can be somewhat speculative like artworks, cars, collectables so be careful.

★ Or best yet you can give it to me and I'll watch it for you, can't miss there....... I'll invest it in scratch off tickets.   ;)

Good luck and when in doubt ask an experienced trusted financial planner.

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