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7 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Also if you do not have it set to take out the RMD automatically but planned to do so yourself later, you don't need to do anything

I always do it at the end of the year... early December to keep any earnings for that year tax free... that of course was when we had "earnings".

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Rethinking and reentering .. Anyone else?

 

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Well... I'm back to positive for the year and not far from my personal high in one account... my NASDAQ account. Plus have now reraised cash to ~15%. A lot of trading around major positions selling rips and buying dips. These include Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Apple, etc... the big tech, "FANG" stocks minus the "F", facebook... cause they are socially irresponsible.

Also helped that I bought into some new to me holdings at or near the bottom that have done nicely, e.g., Tesla, which is stalled out about 10% shy of a double... order is in to sell half, when it does. Already did book doubles in Zoom and Teledoc which I owned before the sharp decline, but loaded up on during the decline... and so now it's "house money" in these... and they are continuing to rise... which doesn't suck.

Even have new positions in some "recovery" stocks that have been beaten down far worse than the general market, e.g., Live Nation and Trip Advisor, both of which have surprisingly gone up prematurely. No cruise lines tho... yet... but am watching them... GM, too.

Sometimes hard work pays off.... if watching CNBC and trading all day long can be considered "work". But between this and the Draft, it left no time to play down here... B)

In my other account, which is more Industrials and dividend oriented, I'm basically pacing the S&P recovery, but have done so while raising a some cash.

On 4/14/2020 at 4:21 PM, Axe said:

Rethinking and reentering .. Anyone else?

I can't give advice legally, but we are at a very critical level. We have retraced 50% of the losses suffered due to Covid-19 and for traders this is a significant level. (see below)

Street is still split on whether we will retest the lows, but fewer are now on the "we will" side than there were. Many now feel that as long as the relief packages keep coming out of Congress we won't. On the other hand if Mitch balks and really is willing to let states go bankrupt (actually will have to pass legislation to allow this... and he can't) then all bets are off.

So "the Street" is still saying to phase back in, if you are going to get back in... but if we open the economy only to see Covid taking off again in the Fall (or whenever), then again... all bets are off.

image.png.61ee553e6ca38aac8df6599871186c1b.png

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51 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

I can't give advice legally, but we are at a very critical level.

Don't want ya to do anything illegal ;) I have a guy for that 😎

I was looking at stocks that took a severe beating and that will also most assuredly be back in time. We identified a few and re entered on a smaller level.. 🤘😷🤘

 

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Let's say for example I started with 1.25. It plummeted to 9.0.  As of right now the total is 9.91. I'm assuming if nobody fucks things up it should come back relatively quickly. Unfortunately coming back quickly is not in everyone's best interest.

WSS

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1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

Let's say for example I started with 1.25. It plummeted to 9.0.  As of right now the total is 9.91. I'm assuming if nobody fucks things up it should come back relatively quickly. Unfortunately coming back quickly is not in everyone's best interest.

First, it is in everyone's interest to come back as quickly as possible, unfortunately the path we are on with pressure to "reopen" the economy ASAP is not the way to go IMO... that is the legitimate debate... no aspersions necessary.

If we do everything right it's going to take well over a year to return to a new normal that is not going to look like the old normal. Put another way, the Trumpettes will have plenty of time to figure out how to blame President Biden for the pace of the return in 2021.

At this point the hope for beginning that trek is that one or more therapeutics prove out to be safe and very effective. The first legit trial results are due at end of the month on the Gilead drug, Reznu-something, for which early anecdotal info came out yesterday that was not promising. But as in the case of Chlorquine's good and bad news it's still all anecdotal at this point. More trials on both drugs will come out in May and June. Any positive results will help for these "established" drugs. Novel drugs will take longer... nearly as long as the 10 to 16 months remaining to develop and prove a vaccine.

That said...

"1.25 plummeted to 9.0"? Did you mean 12.5? Going to assume you did.... even if it does makes both of us "asses". ;)

So you dropped 28%. Note that to break even your holdings have to rise 39% from the 9.0 bottom... it's math. But you've already recouped 10% or just over one-third of your losses... so that's something.The problem is you are lagging the broader markets which have recouped 50% off the lows. This is due to your portfolio mix.

IIRC you have one of those time dated, mutual funds which have a stock/bond mix that shifts as it approaches your target year. Don't know the stock mix in it... but it's very likely an S&P-ish mimicking fund of some sort. This should track the S&P exactly less any fees you are charged, so most of the lag is in the bond portion.

Bonds got hit harder than stocks. There was a liquidity crunch that drove them down... way down. It took the Fed stepping in as a BIG buyer to avert catastrophe. The Fed's action put in a floor, and has produced a bounce, but.... other Fed actions are likely to depress bonds for a long time to come. Namely dropping interest rates... good for stocks... bad for bond funds.

Bond funds roll their bond holdings regularly. As holding mature they roll to new issues. And new issues are paying lower interest rates. Just heard this AM that Fed rates which are essentially zero at present are likely to go negative in the near future. Again... good for stocks... bad for bonds.

Steve, you need to call your "guy" and talk about the bond environment, negative rates and their impact on your recovery. Discuss the risk reward of moving away from bonds and to more stocks and/or cash for your non-stock holdings. Also if you did move some funds to cash how much (as in how many years of) cash is advisable and what the safe options are to make something on the cash. Also review fees involved in any changes, etc.

 

And it wouldn't hurt if your new CD sold "bigly"... ;) ... put me down for one. I assume you take PayPal...

Aside... and not to pry... but have you looked into the self-employed provisions in the relief bills that Congress has passed?

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1 hour ago, Axe said:

Don't want ya to do anything illegal ;) I have a guy for that 😎

I was looking at stocks that took a severe beating and that will also most assuredly be back in time. We identified a few and re entered on a smaller level.. 🤘😷🤘

a/k/a/ "a connection"? lol

There's an actual form I had to sign when I opened my trading accounts about acting as a broker, etc... so advice carries consequences.

But that doesn't mean we cant' swap names here.... so...

I gave up Live Nation (LYV) and Trip Advisor (TRIP)... you owe me at least two.... ;)

Hopefully not "pot stocks" tho... I have taken a beating in those... starting before we ever heard of Covid. But they have gone up some lately... :)

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37 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

First, it is in everyone's interest to come back as quickly as possible,

 I disagree. The party out of office would do best if it continues to tank until after the election. If they win then they wanted to Skyrocket.

unfortunately the path we are on with pressure to "reopen" the economy ASAP is not the way to go IMO... that is the legitimate debate... no aspersions necessary.

we shall see. And as easy as it is to point fingers I don't think any governor red or blue wants to punish the states much further. Whether they believe they're doing the right thing or not.

If we do everything right it's going to take well over a year to return to a new normal that is not going to look like the old normal. Put another way, the Trumpettes will have plenty of time to figure out how to blame President Biden for the pace of the return in 2021.

At this point the hope for beginning that trek is that one or more therapeutics prove out to be safe and very effective. The first legit trial results are due at end of the month on the Gilead drug, Reznu-something, for which early anecdotal info came out yesterday that was not promising. But as in the case of Chlorquine's good and bad news it's still all anecdotal at this point. More trials on both drugs will come out in May and June. Any positive results will help for these "established" drugs. Novel drugs will take longer... nearly as long as the 10 to 16 months remaining to develop and prove a vaccine.

That said...

"1.25 plummeted to 9.0"? Did you mean 12.5? Going to assume you did.... even if it does makes both of us "asses". ;)

Yes I'm terrible at math of course.

So you dropped 28%. Note that to break even your holdings have to rise 39% from the 9.0 bottom... it's math. But you've already recouped 10% or just over one-third of your losses... so that's something.The problem is you are lagging the broader markets which have recouped 50% off the lows. This is due to your portfolio mix.

 No Doubt. I take my guys advice.

IIRC you have one of those time dated, mutual funds which have a stock/bond mix that shifts as it approaches your target year. Don't know the stock mix in it... but it's very likely an S&P-ish mimicking fund of some sort. This should track the S&P exactly less any fees you are charged, so most of the lag is in the bond portion.

Bonds got hit harder than stocks. There was a liquidity crunch that drove them down... way down. It took the Fed stepping in as a BIG buyer to avert catastrophe. The Fed's action put in a floor, and has produced a bounce, but.... other Fed actions are likely to depress bonds for a long time to come. Namely dropping interest rates... good for stocks... bad for bond funds.

Bond funds roll their bond holdings regularly. As holding mature they roll to new issues. And new issues are paying lower interest rates. Just heard this AM that Fed rates which are essentially zero at present are likely to go negative in the near future. Again... good for stocks... bad for bonds.

Steve, you need to call your "guy" and talk about the bond environment, negative rates and their impact on your recovery. Discuss the risk reward of moving away from bonds and to more stocks and/or cash for your non-stock holdings. Also if you did move some funds to cash how much (as in how many years of) cash is advisable and what the safe options are to make something on the cash. Also review fees involved in any changes, etc.

 I will certainly take note of that and ask him about it. Since everything I have is Franklin Templeton I think that the fees are either negligible or non-existent if I move them between Franklin Templeton funds.

 

And it wouldn't hurt if your new CD sold "bigly"... ;) ... put me down for one. I assume you take PayPal...

 I would be delighted but surprised if I sold many hard copies. People don't buy CDs anymore. I sell Summit live performances but mostly people stream meaning that I get in the ballpark of a penny a play from Spotify or Google play music or whatever. I spending quite a bit producing this thing but what the hell I'm very proud of it so far. And who knows the virus might get me before it's released which would be good for sales. 😬

Aside... and not to pry... but have you looked into the self-employed provisions in the relief bills that Congress has passed?

 it's my understanding they aren't ready to do that yet and they will with the 1099 people reasonably soon. I get 1099s from a lot of the places I play some of them I get cash but I report everything. But yes if somebody is going to pass out a check I got fucked harder than most people because this came right at Green season. That has been my traditional biggest month of the year even though it is dropped off some in the last couple years.

 Thank you!

WSS

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1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

a/k/a/ "a connection"? lol

No, I don't use any type of drug, or smoke anymore.

 

I was referring to my financial advisor that rips me off legally ;)

Quote

I gave up Live Nation (LYV) and Trip Advisor (TRIP)... you owe me at least two

 

 

Southwest, Delta and United

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19 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

And who knows the virus might get me before it's released which would be good for sales. 😬

lol... Never thought of that... maybe I should get 10 copies... :)

You're welcome...

Did a little search and it appears FT front loads many of their funds, so if swaps are "free" then most of your fees were paid long ago.

Expenses? Dunno, but can run up to a couple points (percent) in some fund companies. FT did have back loaded fees on "B share" funds, which charged you upon exit, but seems they did away with those.

Bottom line... if you have a guy you trust and has done well for you for years, then that helps you sleep at nite and you are in the right place for you.

When he asks you who filled your head with all the questions... tell him "tour" says hi... ;) 

Glad to read you're on top of the pending 1099ers' help.

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11 minutes ago, Axe said:

No, I don't use any type of drug, or smoke anymore.

I was referring to my financial advisor that rips me off legally ;)

Southwest, Delta and United

I was looking thru my holdings and saw DAL... a/k/a Delta. BION was actually going to mention that here. I've owned DAL since they bought a refinery a few years ago to reduce their fuel costs. Lightened up going into the pull back and a little more since at a loss, but in a year or so, it and the rest of the airlines should come back substantially.

LUV (Southwest) is another good one... off ~50% and no 737Max in its fleet IIRC. Haven't owned them in years, but I'll keep them in mind now. Add United and you've got a nice lil airline basket, but all your new eggs are in one segment.

Couple others to chat with your guy about that I've gotten into in the past month or so...

  • ITB - this is a homebuilder ETF... with the low interest rates and pent up demand due to unemployment, it looks like a good bet for the coming year. It's off about 35%.
  • CLF - Cleveland Cliffs... primary an iron ore miner, but with other mining operations... clearly a steel play possibly with an infrastructure kicker and an import tariff chaser. CLF is off 60+% from its high in 01/2020. And there are other material stocks in the same boat, e.g., FCX and SCCO, both copper miners with a gold kicker in FCX's case. But FCX is riskiest as it has been on a slide since 01/2019.

Speaking of ETFs... there is an airline ETF. I'm not in it, but am going to look into it. Its ticker symbol is JETS. Have to say its chart looks funky tho... immediate take is that I like your basket better.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/3-best-airline-etfs/

 

But the Airline talk made me think about Hotels... and rental cars... hmmmm...

After the "Great Recession" one of my best buys was a car rental company... Thrifty, IIRC. Between business travel recovery and later vacationers... and even later being bought by another rental company who was then bought by yet another rental company... it went up over 500% in under 2 years. Unfortunately I sold it way too early... wasn't even a double when I did... *sigh*

 

OK... we're even... ;)

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BIG earnings week coming up..

  • Tues - Alphabet (GOOGL)
  • Wed - facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) a/k/a "Mr. Softie"
  • Thurs - amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL)

All except FB have been the "FAANG" hosses that have fueled my comeback... am still overweight in the four and have added to all. I guess since I don't own FB, that makes it "AANG" for me... or at least "(f)AANG". There actually is a MAGA acronym an analyst "borrowed" from somewhere to drop facebook and replace it with Microsoft. However, both are short one "A".

Anyway... what these guys have to report and say in their conference calls should go far in determining the market direction for a while. Most of the interest in the calls will center on whether they are going to venture into the future with "forward guidance", which often as or more important than the actual earnings reported. This is especially true if their reported numbers beat street estimates.

Many, many firms have not gone "there", have not given guidance this or end of last quarter due to virus/shut-in related uncertainties. Many in fact have gone as far as retracting prior 2nd QTR, 2020 guidance they issued in January and early February. The difference this week is that these five have done relatively well YTD.

All took a stock price hit in mid-February, but have recouped much of their losses. The exceptions here are FB and GOOGL which have lagged the group due to fears of diminished ad revenue from companies cutting their ad budgets. On the other hand for fairly obvious reasons AMZN has led the group biggly hitting all-time highs the past couple weeks. AAPL and MSFT are almost back to their old highs, but still have a little over 10% to go.

 

Futures have been up most of the weekend ~1.5%, but we'll see what the 'morrow brings.

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19 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

BIG earnings week coming up..

  • Tues - Alphabet (GOOGL)
  • Wed - facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) a/k/a "Mr. Softie"
  • Thurs - amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL)

All except FB have been the "FAANG" hosses that have fueled my comeback... am still overweight in the four and have added to all. I guess since I don't own FB, that makes it "AANG" for me... or at least "(f)AANG". There actually is a MAGA acronym an analyst "borrowed" from somewhere to drop facebook and replace it with Microsoft. However, both are short one "A".

 

I hate it when they break up a good mnemonic I was just getting used to the "FANG" stocks now I have to think about the new parts.

I have a sneaky feeling that the Dow 25,000 may be the new abnormal high for awhile and that's if this gentle rollout works......and Trump doesn't start up his own medical dictionary again soon.  Just let the medical guys talk and let the economy start to run normally.

And will the Dow hit 30,000 well that's the 64 trillion dollar question.

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1 hour ago, mjp28 said:

I have a sneaky feeling that the Dow 25,000 may be the new abnormal high for awhile and that's if this gentle rollout works..

"Trading range" is a phrase that has been gaining in popularity lately. We're bumping up against that 50% retracement. Plus there's a lot of "bear market" behavior that's been reinforced over the past two months... I know... cause it's what has worked for me and if it ain't broke...

My take? IF the reopen works, the market will creep up cautiously (a/k/a/"melt up") poised to break out maybe mid-May. Then...

  • if we see a spike, it'll revert to at least the 2780-ish (S&P) and wait to see US reaction and impact; but...
  • if the coast looks clear and we continue to open, then run continues and brings the old, S&P highs within reach as we approach the Fall.

The Wildcard here has been and remains the identification of an effective therapeutic drug. We know one or more are coming... we just don't know when.

 

So for me the playbook remains the same... by dips sell rips... raising cash all along the way.

Put another way... I'll do what has been working for me until it no longer works.

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42 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

"Trading range" is a phrase that has been gaining in popularity lately. We're bumping up against that 50% retracement. Plus there's a lot of "bear market" behavior that's been reinforced over the past two months... I know... cause it's what has worked for me and if it ain't broke...

My take? IF the reopen works, the market will creep up cautiously (a/k/a/"melt up") poised to break out maybe mid-May. Then...

  • if we see a spike, it'll revert to at least the 2780-ish (S&P) and wait to see US reaction and impact; but...
  • if the coast looks clear and we continue to open, then run continues and brings the old, S&P highs within reach as we approach the Fall.

The Wildcard here has been and remains the identification of an effective therapeutic drug. We know one or more are coming... we just don't know when.

 

So for me the playbook remains the same... by dips sell rips... raising cash all along the way.

Put another way... I'll do what has been working for me until it no longer works.

Like restarting an old hot steam engine will it purrr or blow up ?   :o

Oh and I'm already hearing the "how are we going to pay for all of this" and next "will taxes go up" ?

Ahhhhhh back to old time politics.......already.   :huh:

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2 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Oh and I'm already hearing the "how are we going to pay for all of this" and next "will taxes go up" ?

You forgot, "How bad will inflation be?"

I'll answer yours, if you answer mine...

 

Meanwhile back at the thread...

On 4/24/2020 at 12:22 PM, Tour2ma said:

But the Airline talk made me think about Hotels... and rental cars... hmmmm...today

Put my toe in the water in Southwest Air (LUV), Avis Auto Group (CAR), Hertz Holdings (HTZ) and Marriott Group (MAR). Would have gone bigger, but all were up significantly today due to states reopening optimism. Just shows no matter how smart you think you are, when it comes to the market there are a ton of folks smarter and faster than you are.

EDIT: Also picked up a little Expedia Group (EXPE).

Actually I did fuck up and enter an order for a full opening position in CAR. Order was about 80% filled when my lil order apparently spiked the market. When I realized my error I was able to cancel the balance of the order and have entered a break-even sell order to get all save my toe out... (Just checked an all but the toe is out.)

Why the reversal on the size of the CAR buy? Math. Thought it was up 2% on the day when I created the order, when it was in fact up over 20%. I figure it'll come back to me.

 

The above was a different kind of Fuck Up for me. Used to be that the trade page on my more active platform opened with a default buy order. More times than I care to count have I entered "Sell" orders having failed to change that default. Used to hurt a little when fees were in place, but that's not the case any more and I've rarely been unable to reverse the error without at least breaking even.

Now tho Trade pages open with no default trade type already selected.

 

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5 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

You forgot, "How bad will inflation be?"

I'll answer yours, if you answer mine...

 

Well enough to bump up my and my wife's social security checks would be nice.

Inflation will never be as bad as it was in 1979 at least in my lifetime......again.  No 18% CDs.  :)

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Whipsaw of a day today...

Markets were generally up early on "let's go" euphoria with the laggards getting bids and the recovered being sold... so true to my new, "Bear" nature... I did the opposite. Sold a little JPM and MA (MasterCard).

Then the market rolled over just shy of noon Eastern. So an hour later I bought a little "MAGNN"? (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, NVDA). Also a little TDOC. However, the travel related stocks remained strong... especially the car rental stocks. I should not have corrected that math error... ;)  Avis Group (CAR) was up 8% today, but HTZ was up 12%... 😮 

Did initiate one new position in a recovery play... Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS). Idea came from a viewer question to Fast Money Halftime Report regular and one of my favorite analysts, Pete Najarian, who also happens to be an ex-NFL player. Pete is an ex-Viking. His brother, and business partner, Jon, is an ex-Bear.

GOOS makes high-end Winter-wear.

Quote

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. is a Canada-based company and with its subsidiaries is primarily engaged in designing, manufacturing and selling outdoor apparel for men, women, youth, children and babies. The Company operates through two segments: Wholesale and Direct to Consumer. The Wholesale business comprises sales made to a mix of functional and fashionable retailers, including luxury department stores, outdoor specialty stores, individual shops and international distributors. The Direct to Consumer business comprises sales through the country-specific e-commerce platforms and its Company-owned retail stores located in luxury shopping locations. The Company’s apparel collections include various styles of parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for the fall, winter, and spring seasons.

 

GOOGL reported after the close and met the street estimates on the sustained strength of their ad revenue... which was not expected. Apparently they very smartly carved out the decline in ads that occurred in March and used it to show revenues didn't fall as far as feared and how quickly they might return. As conference call has gone on there was some "green shoots" mentions about recent signs that consumers are returning to pre-Covid buying patterns.

Price popped about 4% in the aftermarkets and has been climbing from there... up about 8% now... so will be selling some tomorrow most likely. ;)

 

As usual just using this space as a public diary for my thinking out loud not to disseminate any advice...

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21 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Inflation will never be as bad as it was in 1979 at least in my lifetime......again.  No 18% CDs.  :)

I remember in the late 70s I bought into two$10k cds.. I was young but the monthly interest paid our rent and then some.

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22 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Inflation will never be as bad as it was in 1979 at least in my lifetime......again.  No 18% CDs.  :)

NEVER say never.

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And now today, I got to look at my dream car..

A $135K Vette that I had less than a zero chance of Shoehorning myself into ;)

95559459_10156703843526511_5582336111788

 

Probably a bad investment anyhow 🤣

 

94798398_10156703846401511_2333382133357

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I could get into one of those...

Out? Completely different story.

But honestly... they've ceased to look like 'Vettes...

 

Meanwhile... back at the thread...

Exciting day today... Big Techs' earnings run that started last nite continued this morning (with the exception of AMD), so the market... whose futures were up all nite... rose 1.5%-ish at opening.

I did a little selling... mostly the usual suspects... and bought a little more AMD.

Then mid-morning as the market was losing a little steam Dr. Fauci told a press pool in The Oval that the Gilead, intravenous (IV) drug that anecdotally bombed a week or so ago has done well in a real 1000+ patient, placebo trial. The drug, Remdesivir, shortened hospital stays (so it's effective) and may have reduced mortality. Latter is not definite.

The reason early results were being released was that in cases when a drug proves to be effective to this level the protocols are broken to give patients in the placebo group the option of being given the drug. In other words the trial is over... only the data crunching continues.

Fauci emphasized that one of the most important takeaways from the study is we now know that the virus can be impacted. Remdesivir may or may not ultimately be the gold standard for treating Covid-19, but for now it has set the bar.

The market went up more rising to +3.5%-ish.

I sold more... and in bigger lots... and of stocks I'd not yet sold.

Then in the aftermarket more big tech pops occurred. facebook and Microsoft both beat street estimates. Don't own FB and had trimmed MSFT that day :( ... and then there was Tesla.

TSLA blew away the street estimates which called for a small loss. Instead Musk posted a sizeable profit and did not reduce their 2020 projections. The stock popped 10% in the aftermarket... more than exceeding my double. So I sold half...

Now its house money time... Tesla style...

 

I did put the tip of a toe in the pool in one new position today. I bought one share of ticker IWM. IWM is an ETF which tracks the Russel 2000, a stock index for small cap stocks. Sucker has been on a run lately, so not going to chase it, but my one share bookmark will keep it in mind should the market fall.

I think it will.

Things are simply getting too positive...

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Not an etrade endorsement... just a humorous take on a real philosophy.

 

 

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End of month #4 of 2020...

Exiting the month just shy of even YTD across all accounts.. also approaching 20% cash. A lot of work is paying off...

 

Major crosscurrents today. Modestly higher futures gave way to the jobless claim news that another 3.8mm have made an initial filing. That puts the total at 30mm. This report's impact may have been intensified by the news that this report included a significant wave of white-collar furloughs.

Additionally I read a report today that US cash savings are increasing rapidly due to the uncertainty... and if the consumer in a consumer-driven economy stops spending...

Anyway...

I actually did more selling today than I did "buying the dip". But like I said... crosscurrents. What I sold was up on the day. Sales included trims of high-flyers ORCL, AMZN, AAPL and NFLX. Both AMZN and AAPL reported after the close and both are down a little bit in the after-markets.

Buys today included one new position plus small adds to both a recent addition and older holdings that pulled back...

  • The new position is Alaska Air (ALK).
  • The recent add to which I added was LUV.
  • The older holdings I added to included Boeing (BA), GE (GE.... duh) and WalMart (WMT). I had sold up to half my holdings in these three early this year and it was time to add some back.

A new month starts tomorrow. Futures are off 1+%... We shall see.

 

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On 4/24/2020 at 11:12 AM, Westside Steve said:

I disagree. The party out of office would do best if it continues to tank until after the election. If they win then they wanted to Skyrocket.

Why try to "divine" sentiments when you can see actions.

Dems have been pouring money into the economy in three separate bills. And now have drafted a 4th one totaling $3T... and the "rubs are playing hard to get.

Also like to point out that for 6 years Mitchy-poo starved the economy of fiscal stimulous while simultaneously harping on the slow pace of the recovery.

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Been a while since I did an update... the above doesn't count. Just squaring away an overdue account.... ;)

The market ain't looking good gang...

Yesterday the S&P posted an "Outside reversal"... which means yesterday's high was greater than the prior day's high and yesterday's low was lower than the prior day's low. While the high was just barely higher... the low was much lower. For market watchers this is one of the worst harbingers of bad news a'comin' that they see (along with the death cross and a couple others).

Thought for a little while this AM that we might dodge a bulllet, but that hope was short lived... as in dead in less than 1/2 hour.

Two retired hedge fund billionaires said some very negative things about the market today. Powell said in the Fed's view negative interest rates were seen as a bad option that can do long-term damage to the economy... so naturally our President came out in favor of them.... NOW! :rolleyes:

 

Anyway... while I could use a little more time, I've spent the last couple weeks preparing for this downturn.

At Monday's high my main account toughed it's pre-Covid high for a few minutes before retreating, but this time a that level I have about three times the cash. You could say I've been busy selling... :) YTD my trade count is about what I have done in a typical year.

As I posted way back when I started my diary here, we're in a Bear Market. And in Bears you buy dips and sell rips. Thru April I was doing was doing both about equally. However, in May I shifted to selling roughly double what I bought. Basically if a stock I held 100 shares of rose $100 total, then I'd sell $100 worth of shares. If the next day the same stock fell $100 total, then I'd buy $50 worth. Repeat day after day after across a dozen stocks and soon the cash position is built.

Anyway cash is now at 30%... well, 29% after a little nibbling today.

 

Right now futures are Positive, but then they were last evening as well and thru last nite and into the opening.

We shall see...

 

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19 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Two retired hedge fund billionaires said some very negative things about the market today.

Article on the above, FYI...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-heavyweights-are-sounding-alarm-about-stock-prices/ar-BB142XFL?ocid=spartandhp

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Trump getting ready to leave the WH, so wants to scam the public more before he leaves.

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