Tour's PreCombine Mock 1.0

[Tour2ma]

I've done a ton of sims on three different sites. Each of the prospects listed by each pick have made it to that pick on at least one site. I've watched videos on most of the listed prospects focusing on those in the first four rounds.

Here's my summary with the blow-by-blow rationales to follow...

1.10 ( 10) - Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
2.09 ( 41) - Ashtyn Davis, S California
3.10 ( 74) - Davon Hamilton, IDL Ohio State
3.26 ( 90) - Adam Trautman, TE Dayton
4.09 (105) - Shane Lemieux, IOL Oregon
6.08 (167) - A.J. Green, CB Oklahoma State
7.30 (221) - Benito Jones, IDL Ole Miss

Prospects in boldface have been available most of the sim runs I've made.

Pick 1.10 - Andrew Thomas (OT-UGA)/Jedrick Wills (OT-BAMA) (assuming Burrows and Young are off the board... a pretty safe assumption)

• Wills was my top choice until recently when I looked at more of Thomas' work. While now I have Thomas more than a little higher than Wills, I still consider Wills worthy of the pick.
• If both are gone, then I'd consider IDLs, Brown and Kinlaw, weighing their value vs. a trade down where I'd position for OT, Josh Jones, who while raw is my #3 OT.... plus I should pick up a 2nd Rounder.
• ATL has the 16th pick and they have made noise about being interested in moving up for Defensive help.

Pick 2.09 - Zack Baun (OLB-Wis)/Ross Blacklock (IDL-TCU)/Ashtyn Davis (FS - Cal)

• Baun is my OLB in this draft... good size... good pass/run balance.. great motor; I see him making it to this pick as less than a 50/50 proposition.
• Blacklock looks like a helluva consolation prize in lieu of Brown or Kinlaw. Unfortunately him dropping this far is unlikely.
• Next to McKinney, who likely goes in the 1st, Davis is my fav FS in this Draft. He's long... fast... and is a hitter. He has a shot to be the fastest Safety at the Combine. Should be here and is a good value here. So why not have him higher in this cluster? The falloff at the other positions to the next alternatives is greater.

Pick 3.10 - Malik Harrison (MLB-tOSU)/Troy Dye (OLB-Oregon)/Davon Hamilton (IDL-Tosu)/Adam Trautman (TE-Dayton)/Kyle Dugger (SS-LenoirR)

• This is pretty much the last stop for drafting playable LBs in this class (there is an interesting, Day-3, project pick). My late developing interest in keeping Schobert is because he could move outside were Malik the pick or stay inside, if it were Troy. Malik is the higher floor, safer choice... Troy the more interesting upside pick.
• Davon's stock has been on the rise. In case we have not drafted an IDL yet, I add him here as the last quality IDL I've seen. (Again there is a developmental, Day 3 prospect.)
• Hard to know how high Trautman will go. While I like him I would not take him earlier due to low floor. Plus again I have a developmental TE in my pocket.
• Dugger... along with Trautman... is this Draft's "small school" heart-throb. Athleticism overcomes "competition level" questions. High ceiling...

Pick 3.26 - Davon Hamilton (IDL-Tosu)/Adam Trautman (TE-Dayton)/Kyle Dugger (SS-LenoirR)/Netane Muti (IOL-FresnoSt.)/Shane Lemieux (IOL-Oregon)/Brandon Jones (SS-tu)

• Three repeats here in case I landed my LB and any of the three slide to this pick.
• Assuming he is medically cleared Muti is the first alternative here. When healthy he is arguably the best IOL in the Draft for any blocking scheme, but... he's missed a lot of time.
• Shane is not Netane, but he's made to play in the wide ZBS we are going to feature in 2020. He's the last viable IOL starter I see in this draft.
• Brandon Jones is a very good, box SS prospect. Higher floor, but lower ceiling than Dugger.

Pick 4.09 - Netane Muti (IOL-FresnoSt.)/Shane Lemieux (IOL-Oregon)/Brandon Jones (SS-tu)/Mathew Peart (OT-UConn)

• .. again three repeats.
• Matt Peart looks like a decent RT prospect. If we whiffed on my top 3 OTs, then he'd be a good choice here.
• This is the last stop for a viable starter in our draft. It's two full rounds before we pick again.

Pick 6.08 - AJ Green (CB-OK St.)/Antoine Brooks, Jr. (SS-Maryland)/William Gay, Jr. (OLB, MissSt.)

• Green is a nice, tall (6'1) CB prospect worth taking late. Needs to get stronger for press coverage and run support, but has coverage skill due to fluid hips.
• Brooks is a tough, box SS worth a look if still need a Safety and Green is gone.
• Gay is a very raw athlete. Good size (6'2, 235) and speed. I've seen him sim'd as high as Round 2... don't see a rise anywhere near that, but he is interesting.

Pick 7.30 - Benito Jones (IDL-OleMiss)/Jordan Fuller (SS-tOSU)

• Benito impressed me when I saw him in a Ole Miss game this past season. Enough so that he is my only repeat position taken. Tough against the run and can keep LBs clean. He add nice DL depth.
• Fuller might never start on D, but would add depth and should shine on STs.

[TexasAg1969]

I know Thomas seems to always be there in the sim game. And for some reason all 6 CBS pickers have him still there at #10 with two saying we pick him, two saying we take Wirfs, 1 Becton and 1 Simmons. Drafttek has Thomas going earlier along with Wills and Wirfs to us, Walter has those first two going early Becton to us instead of Wirfs, draftsite has Thomas early and Wills to us, Sporting News has us trading down to #21 taking Wirfs,  draftwire/USA Today has us trading down for S Delpit and NFL.com has us all over the place with these 4 pickers.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/mock-drafts

Fair to say at this point no one really knows how this will play out. I'll wait until FA has played out to try to figure out the draft. 

Hopefully OL is addressed in FA and we can go for more defensive help since I always have thought that defense wins championships.

[Tour2ma]

4 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

I'll wait until FA has played out to try to figure out the draft. 

Where's the fun in that?

Sure the picture grows clearer as FAs start finding homes, but that only shuffles teams' needs, not prospect evaluation. Prospect evaluation gets tweaked by the Combine.

 

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Where's the fun in that?

Sure the picture grows clearer as FAs start finding homes, but that only shuffles teams' needs, not prospect evaluation. Prospect evaluation gets tweaked by the Combine.

I'll watch the punters.😜

[calfoxwc]

12 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Here's my summary with the blow-by-blow rationales to follow...

1.10 ( 10) - Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
2.09 ( 41) - Ashtyn Davis, S California
3.10 ( 74) - Davon Hamilton, IDL Ohio State
3.26 ( 90) - Adam Trautman, TE Dayton
4.09 (105) - Shane Lemieux, IOL Oregon
6.08 (167) - A.J. Green, CB Oklahoma State
7.30 (221) - Benito Jones, IDL Ole Miss

Really cool mock ! Andrew Thomas, if there, would be the perfect pick for the Browns. I just kept thinking he'd be gone.

Ashtyn Davis - amazing talent - I kinda over-looked him because I thought he'd take some time before starting.

Davon Hamilton - I undervalued him, had him a below radar 6th round pick - first pick in third round far more likely as you did it.

Trautman - my pick in the third round. He might go earlier in the second, who knows.

Shane Lemieux - I didn't have him on my list. I think maybe I like your guy better - he's stronger, and similar.

Interesting how the top olinemen are different - and similar - ?

 

[Tour2ma]

Trautman's 40 disappointed, but the kid popped a class-leading 3-cone and was in shouting distance of the TE record.

[Dutch Oven]

1 minute ago, Tour2ma said:

Trautman's 40 disappointed, but the kid popped a class-leading 3-cone and was in shouting distance of the TE record.

What was his 40?

[gumby73]

9 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

What was his 40?

4.80 =40.. 13th of 15..tops in 3 cone at 6.78...that's a solid number at 255lbs

[tiamat63]

40 don't mean shit when the cone is that good.

 

edit:  That's what she said.

[TexasAg1969]

20 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Where's the fun in that?

Sure the picture grows clearer as FAs start finding homes, but that only shuffles teams' needs, not prospect evaluation. Prospect evaluation gets tweaked by the Combine.

 

Just a follow up on the A&M punter. 7.03 3 cone drill and 4.13 20 yd shuttle. Howya like them apples?😂🍎🍏

[Flugel]

On 2/28/2020 at 1:29 AM, Tour2ma said:

I've done a ton of sims on three different sites. Each of the prospects listed by each pick have made it to that pick on at least one site. I've watched videos on most of the listed prospects focusing on those in the first four rounds.

Here's my summary with the blow-by-blow rationales to follow...

1.10 ( 10) - Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
2.09 ( 41) - Ashtyn Davis, S California
3.10 ( 74) - Davon Hamilton, IDL Ohio State
3.26 ( 90) - Adam Trautman, TE Dayton
4.09 (105) - Shane Lemieux, IOL Oregon
6.08 (167) - A.J. Green, CB Oklahoma State
7.30 (221) - Benito Jones, IDL Ole Miss

Prospects in boldface have been available most of the sim runs I've made.

Pick 1.10 - Andrew Thomas (OT-UGA)/Jedrick Wills (OT-BAMA) (assuming Burrows and Young are off the board... a pretty safe assumption)

• Wills was my top choice until recently when I looked at more of Thomas' work. While now I have Thomas more than a little higher than Wills, I still consider Wills worthy of the pick.
• If both are gone, then I'd consider IDLs, Brown and Kinlaw, weighing their value vs. a trade down where I'd position for OT, Josh Jones, who while raw is my #3 OT.... plus I should pick up a 2nd Rounder.
• ATL has the 16th pick and they have made noise about being interested in moving up for Defensive help.

Pick 2.09 - Zack Baun (OLB-Wis)/Ross Blacklock (IDL-TCU)/Ashtyn Davis (FS - Cal)

• Baun is my OLB in this draft... good size... good pass/run balance.. great motor; I see him making it to this pick as less than a 50/50 proposition.
• Blacklock looks like a helluva consolation prize in lieu of Brown or Kinlaw. Unfortunately him dropping this far is unlikely.
• Next to McKinney, who likely goes in the 1st, Davis is my fav FS in this Draft. He's long... fast... and is a hitter. He has a shot to be the fastest Safety at the Combine. Should be here and is a good value here. So why not have him higher in this cluster? The falloff at the other positions to the next alternatives is greater.

 

Nice read, great work!  Thanks Tour!

I'm not sure how quickly the supply and demand will go for teams with young QBs like Washington, NYG, NYJ, Arizona, and Cleveland.  The good news is there's still teams needing a young QB that will either trade up into the top 10 aside from those that are already in the top 10.

I've been wanting a good dual purpose TE; but with our ghost towns at OT, LBer and Safety positions - I wasn't thinking we'd find the opportunity to draft a TE within the 1st 3 rounds.  I like what you did there with Trautman as our 2nd 3rd round pick.

Prior to the combines, I saw some mock drafts with us drafting Wirfs at #10 so I've been reading up on him before I delve into watching Youtubes (which have misled me in the past emphasizing player strengths/greatest moments mostly ie; Mack Wilson). Watching him perform at Indy and trusting the coaching/player development of him under Kirk Ferentz has me liking that. Those powerful quads made him a very reliable 4 year starter for Ferentz. However, Andrew Thomas has been my fave all along.  Having said all that, Wills looked incredible with his lateral movement yesterday. Even though he was a RT, that was the blind side of Bama's left handed QB (Tua).  While Becton ran a great 40 for a guy his size - he also pulled a muscle on a night he should have been well prepared for.  The 40 will increase his popularity; but does he have the fitness for the demands of his position for reliability/consistency up against the explosive edge rushers?  Remains to be seen.  Kiper thinks Washington should take him and I wouldn't hate that.   I think we will have some really good options at LT with the #10 overall.

Braun, who was coached up by former Cleveland Brown Safety/PR Jim Leonard would be an ideal addition.  He'd also help our pass rush off an edge.  Although it kind of sucks knowing now that Schobert has been trained/developed into the LBer he looked like he'd be (one that could lead the NFL in tackles and INT passes 3 weeks in a row) - someone else will have to benefit because John Dorsey didn't draft him so the ego creates an opening we didn't need IMO. 

[The Gipper]

On 2/28/2020 at 1:29 AM, Tour2ma said:

I've done a ton of sims on three different sites. Each of the prospects listed by each pick have made it to that pick on at least one site. I've watched videos on most of the listed prospects focusing on those in the first four rounds.

Here's my summary with the blow-by-blow rationales to follow...

1.10 ( 10) - Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
2.09 ( 41) - Ashtyn Davis, S California
3.10 ( 74) - Davon Hamilton, IDL Ohio State
3.26 ( 90) - Adam Trautman, TE Dayton
4.09 (105) - Shane Lemieux, IOL Oregon
6.08 (167) - A.J. Green, CB Oklahoma State
7.30 (221) - Benito Jones, IDL Ole Miss

Prospects in boldface have been available most of the sim runs I've made.

Pick 1.10 - Andrew Thomas (OT-UGA)/Jedrick Wills (OT-BAMA) (assuming Burrows and Young are off the board... a pretty safe assumption)

• Wills was my top choice until recently when I looked at more of Thomas' work. While now I have Thomas more than a little higher than Wills, I still consider Wills worthy of the pick.
• If both are gone, then I'd consider IDLs, Brown and Kinlaw, weighing their value vs. a trade down where I'd position for OT, Josh Jones, who while raw is my #3 OT.... plus I should pick up a 2nd Rounder.
• ATL has the 16th pick and they have made noise about being interested in moving up for Defensive help.

Pick 2.09 - Zack Baun (OLB-Wis)/Ross Blacklock (IDL-TCU)/Ashtyn Davis (FS - Cal)

• Baun is my OLB in this draft... good size... good pass/run balance.. great motor; I see him making it to this pick as less than a 50/50 proposition.
• Blacklock looks like a helluva consolation prize in lieu of Brown or Kinlaw. Unfortunately him dropping this far is unlikely.
• Next to McKinney, who likely goes in the 1st, Davis is my fav FS in this Draft. He's long... fast... and is a hitter. He has a shot to be the fastest Safety at the Combine. Should be here and is a good value here. So why not have him higher in this cluster? The falloff at the other positions to the next alternatives is greater.

Pick 3.10 - Malik Harrison (MLB-tOSU)/Troy Dye (OLB-Oregon)/Davon Hamilton (IDL-Tosu)/Adam Trautman (TE-Dayton)/Kyle Dugger (SS-LenoirR)

• This is pretty much the last stop for drafting playable LBs in this class (there is an interesting, Day-3, project pick). My late developing interest in keeping Schobert is because he could move outside were Malik the pick or stay inside, if it were Troy. Malik is the higher floor, safer choice... Troy the more interesting upside pick.
• Davon's stock has been on the rise. In case we have not drafted an IDL yet, I add him here as the last quality IDL I've seen. (Again there is a developmental, Day 3 prospect.)
• Hard to know how high Trautman will go. While I like him I would not take him earlier due to low floor. Plus again I have a developmental TE in my pocket.
• Dugger... along with Trautman... is this Draft's "small school" heart-throb. Athleticism overcomes "competition level" questions. High ceiling...

Pick 3.26 - Davon Hamilton (IDL-Tosu)/Adam Trautman (TE-Dayton)/Kyle Dugger (SS-LenoirR)/Netane Muti (IOL-FresnoSt.)/Shane Lemieux (IOL-Oregon)/Brandon Jones (SS-tu)

• Three repeats here in case I landed my LB and any of the three slide to this pick.
• Assuming he is medically cleared Muti is the first alternative here. When healthy he is arguably the best IOL in the Draft for any blocking scheme, but... he's missed a lot of time.
• Shane is not Netane, but he's made to play in the wide ZBS we are going to feature in 2020. He's the last viable IOL starter I see in this draft.
• Brandon Jones is a very good, box SS prospect. Higher floor, but lower ceiling than Dugger.

Pick 4.09 - Netane Muti (IOL-FresnoSt.)/Shane Lemieux (IOL-Oregon)/Brandon Jones (SS-tu)/Mathew Peart (OT-UConn)

• .. again three repeats.
• Matt Peart looks like a decent RT prospect. If we whiffed on my top 3 OTs, then he'd be a good choice here.
• This is the last stop for a viable starter in our draft. It's two full rounds before we pick again.

Pick 6.08 - AJ Green (CB-OK St.)/Antoine Brooks, Jr. (SS-Maryland)/William Gay, Jr. (OLB, MissSt.)

• Green is a nice, tall (6'1) CB prospect worth taking late. Needs to get stronger for press coverage and run support, but has coverage skill due to fluid hips.
• Brooks is a tough, box SS worth a look if still need a Safety and Green is gone.
• Gay is a very raw athlete. Good size (6'2, 235) and speed. I've seen him sim'd as high as Round 2... don't see a rise anywhere near that, but he is interesting.

Pick 7.30 - Benito Jones (IDL-OleMiss)/Jordan Fuller (SS-tOSU)

• Benito impressed me when I saw him in a Ole Miss game this past season. Enough so that he is my only repeat position taken. Tough against the run and can keep LBs clean. He add nice DL depth.
• Fuller might never start on D, but would add depth and should shine on STs.

Since I took the Browns in our Mock Draft.....I will keep your thread on dial to consult with it.

Are you going to take a couple of teams?  We are down to 6 pairings. 

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Since I took the Browns in our Mock Draft.....I will keep your thread on dial to consult with it.

Are you going to take a couple of teams?  We are down to 6 pairings. 

Too much going on in March to commit to participating this year.

[hoorta]

On 2/28/2020 at 7:27 PM, tiamat63 said:

40 don't mean shit when the cone is that good.

 

edit:  That's what she said.

Have to pull  for the local kid from Dayton . Once in a while you can get a  steal. Though  low third round  can hardly be called  that. 

[hoorta]

And just to rain on the wonderfulness of our new front office, Charlie Campbell of Walter Football weighs in on our first round pick....   

"Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam enjoyed going 1-31 so much that he brought back Andrew Berry to help reproduce that magic with holdover fraud Paul Depodesta. Thus, Cleveland will shy away from drafting good football players like Denzel Ward or Nick Chubb in favor of prospects who score well in analytics. Fortunately for their fans, the Browns may not be able to screw up their first-round pick if they draft one of the top three offensive tackles, as Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills are all safe picks to be good pros."

[The Gipper]

19 minutes ago, hoorta said:

And just to rain on the wonderfulness of our new front office, Charlie Campbell of Walter Football weighs in on our first round pick....   

"Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam enjoyed going 1-31 so much that he brought back Andrew Berry to help reproduce that magic with holdover fraud Paul Depodesta. Thus, Cleveland will shy away from drafting good football players like Denzel Ward or Nick Chubb in favor of prospects who score well in analytics. Fortunately for their fans, the Browns may not be able to screw up their first-round pick if they draft one of the top three offensive tackles, as Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills are all safe picks to be good pros."

Unfortunately for Browns fans, they could do a trade down that gets us none of those players, but another Corey Coleman.

[gumby73]

3 hours ago, hoorta said:

And just to rain on the wonderfulness of our new front office, Charlie Campbell of Walter Football weighs in on our first round pick....   

Fortunately for their fans, the Browns may not be able to screw up their first-round pick if they draft one of the top three offensive tackles, as Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills are all safe picks to be good pros."

Sure we can screw this up... 1) The Jets plans are to jump ahead of us from #11 to get their choice of Tackles...4 of the 5 Jets OL *starters* are all FA's but their RG.. 2) #14 TB-- Both RT's are FA's & their fans are targeting Wills or Wirfs screaming to move up.It's both teams primary needs as we speak, like ours..Can Gettelman pass on a tackle if Simmons and or Okudah is setting there at #4?  If Berry wants to speak about being aggressive in both FA & Draft? Show We.. starting at pick #10...👀  

[Dutch Oven]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

And just to rain on the wonderfulness of our new front office, Charlie Campbell of Walter Football weighs in on our first round pick....   

"Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam enjoyed going 1-31 so much that he brought back Andrew Berry to help reproduce that magic with holdover fraud Paul Depodesta. Thus, Cleveland will shy away from drafting good football players like Denzel Ward or Nick Chubb in favor of prospects who score well in analytics. Fortunately for their fans, the Browns may not be able to screw up their first-round pick if they draft one of the top three offensive tackles, as Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Wills are all safe picks to be good pros."

Damn, even I think that is a harsh assessment of the current front office... 😀

[Tour2ma]

6 hours ago, hoorta said:

Have to pull  for the local kid from Dayton . Once in a while you can get a  steal. Though  low third round  can hardly be called  that. 

Why not? Happens all the time, h... even at lower picks.

Prime example... George Kittle, taken in the 5th and now considered one of the top three TEs in the league.

Did I mention I had him?

On 4/12/2017 at 1:44 PM, Tour2ma said:

There are too many (TE) prospects with blocking and receiving skills to not take one... starting with OJH at 12 through Kittle likely somewhere on Day 3.

 

 

[Unsympathetic]

The best 2 tackles in Browns history will be 2 dudes with a first name for a last name, and their actual first names are 2 of the most common names in the country.  [Joe and Andrew Thomas]

So we've got that going for us..

[hoorta]

On 3/2/2020 at 10:17 PM, Unsympathetic said:

The best 2 tackles in Browns history will be 2 dudes with a first name for a last name, and their actual first names are 2 of the most common names in the country.  [Joe and Andrew Thomas]

So we've got that going for us..

Well they could turn in a pick for Becky Meckton.... We're  all about  diversity.