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Icecube

Anyone else sick of "analytics?"

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44 minutes ago, Icecube said:

It's all bull $#$$. Give me a good coach and GM and they don't need to even bother with this crap. Browns are dipping into this again?

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution

Sorry- it's going to happen, for sure.... This probably says it best..... 

“The point we made with our coaches is: We have all this information but so does everyone else,” said Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert. “What advantage does it give us to get it? None. It’s what we do with it, the way we use it. It’s no different than when we go sit at the combine and get all the same information. It’s about finding an advantage in what we do with it.”

PS- sometimes analytics can be SO wrong, and DePodesta said as much. Fer instance, everyone laughed their ass off when 50 year old Rich Eisen damn near beat Orlando Brown's time in the 40 yard dash, old tub o lard was certainly gonna suck big time if he ever made it to the pros. Just starting tackle for the Ravens...... 

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38 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Sorry- it's going to happen, for sure.... This probably says it best..... 

“The point we made with our coaches is: We have all this information but so does everyone else,” said Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert. “What advantage does it give us to get it? None. It’s what we do with it, the way we use it. It’s no different than when we go sit at the combine and get all the same information. It’s about finding an advantage in what we do with it.”

PS- sometimes analytics can be SO wrong, and DePodesta said as much. Fer instance, everyone laughed their ass off when 50 year old Rich Eisen damn near beat Orlando Brown's time in the 40 yard dash, old tub o lard was certainly gonna suck big time if he ever made it to the pros. Just starting tackle for the Ravens...... 

They're just making it more complicated than it is. Do analytics measure instincts and heart? Jimmy Johnson had it right: Production is what matters most  

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17 minutes ago, Icecube said:

They're just making it more complicated than it is. Do analytics measure instincts and heart? Jimmy Johnson had it right: Production is what matters most  

I could make an argument you can measure instincts analytically. And you reach a point where "heart" won't doesn't get it done if you're flat out not good enough. Like in the NFLPA Bowl 98% of those guys have all the heart in the world- but they won't have the talent to make an NFL roster. 

Oh, BTW you can have fabulous production in college- and be a monumental bust in the pros. You can bet every player drafted in the first round checked all of the boxes for at least one team- and like clockwork 1\3 of them bust. 

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2 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I could make an argument you can measure instincts analytically. And you reach a point where "heart" won't doesn't get it done if you're flat out not good enough. Like in the NFLPA Bowl 98% of those guys have all the heart in the world- but they won't have the talent to make an NFL roster. 

Oh, BTW you can have fabulous production in college- and be a monumental bust in the pros. You can bet every player drafted in the first round checked all of the boxes for at least one team- and like clockwork 1\3 of them bust. 

Of course to all your points, that's why it's a "collaborate" process. But it's all part of it. Heart alone means nothing, and so forth.  But drive means something....who is that Brady guy? 

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I'm not.  I am glad we embrace it.  It's just a process of gathering information.  You still have boots on the ground(scouts) trying to measure the things you mentioned.

 

I am glad we got rid of the "foobal" guy who hand selected Freddie to be our coach.  I don't blame Freddie for not being ready.  I blame the Doofus for thinking he was.

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I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding of what analytics "is". 

FOOTBALL GUYS DEFINE WHAT IS GOOD.

All "analytics" requires people who have played the game to define what is a + for any player on any play.  

Yes, Cris Collinsworth isn't watching every route, but he can show how to determine one WR's execution that play was good even if the ball went to the RB.  And it's not just one guy, there's 3,4 athletes all a part of the "Determine What Is Good" discussion for each position before the analysis happens.

Furthermore.. does anyone seriously think NFL scouts have played in the NFL? If not, how do these people keep their jobs?

 

So, for everyone who "doesn't like analytics" ..... Go for it! You're the GM - How, exactly, would you evaluate players? 

To be clear: Since you don't like experienced football players analyzing current football players.. good luck.

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1 hour ago, Unsympathetic said:

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding of what analytics "is". 

I would agree with this, at least for me personally. I don’t fully understand what is being measured, how accurately it’s being measured, and how much it matters in the grand scheme of things. 

You used the example of a receiver running a correct route, and if the receiver breaks in but the ball is thrown out, is that a -1 for the QB or the WR? And sure, 3-4 knowledgable people make educated guesses, but they’re still guesses. But just like that you are adding conjecture to something that is supposed to be hard reliable data. And the data only gets messier if the ball goes to the RB like in your example. What data is there to gauge if the WR ran a correct route or not? 

It all just seems so imperfect. It makes more sense to measure how many catches a WR makes with their hands instead of their body. Or how many low or high passes they catch. How many contested catches they make compared to not so contested catches. And maybe they are measuring that stuff, but no one is really letting us know that. 

The NFL might as well implement next gen stats like they do in baseball, where fans can nerd out as much as they wanna nerd out by comparing the football equivalents of BBWAR and BABIP, and in the process let us know the formulas for these stats. 

And even if that is done l would still question the reliability of the stats because the volume of data just isn’t there in football like it is in baseball, but it would at least make more sense to us average fans instead of just using the word “analytics” like that’s supposed to mean something to us. 

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My Dad was a very excellent engineer who came out of college with the main tool for mathematical calculation being a slide rule. He eventually became the engineer in charge of major overseas projects and loved hiring engineers "far smarter than me" who came with this newfangled little hand held tool called an electronic calculator. So he would get these guys to help him get the new little tool and teach him the intricacies of what they could do. Then some of his new "smarter than me" hires late in his career started coming in with this other even more dazzling tool called a computer. Well before you know it he was making these guys help him keep up with the latest ones as they came out and teach him the intricacies of what they could do as well. It was that drive to keep up with the changes and his innate talent that eventually made him Mobil's top international trouble-shooting engineer.

Analytics is a tool. It's best to keep up and change as it changes if you want to stay at the top.

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10 hours ago, Icecube said:

It's all bull $#$$. Give me a good coach and GM and they don't need to even bother with this crap. Browns are dipping into this again?

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution

This article actually was a pretty good read. Few years old article that shed some light on a few things. Written around when Dorsey was hired and even the NFL teams were trying to figure out what stats mattered and how to use them.

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i got no issue using some of the data collected on game down situations. Even the scoreboard & game clock math..the facts are what they are, while your opponents are well aware of them also.. where i get concerned is, is when SPARQ scores become a factor between gametape/ team fits/needs or BPA/ and missing the clues in the interview process.. Am still looking for a Pete Carol type coach to put all these 53 piece puzzle together with a workable GM... maybe it is our time 🤞  

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We don't want a pete carroll type..

He has an all-pro at QB and a street free agent RB and chooses the run on 3/4 of plays.  The single season Carroll won everything, he had the most expensive OL which not coincidentally is the only time that strategy works.. And many years later, he still can't gameplan to his team's strength..

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28 minutes ago, Unsympathetic said:

We don't want a pete carroll type..

He has an all-pro at QB and a street free agent RB and chooses the run on 3/4 of plays.  The single season Carroll won everything, he had the most expensive OL which not coincidentally is the only time that strategy works.. And many years later, he still can't gameplan to his team's strength..

So you’re genuinely saying you wouldn’t want a coach with .630 winning percentage and two Super Bowls in a decade as your coach? I swear to God it’s like you people don’t watch the Browns on the field. Pete would have a statue if he had that same tenure in Cleveland.

 

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I am not sick of analytics.......I am just sick of losing.    And some think that the Browns are losing because of analytics.   As Stefanski and Depo have said....it is just a tool to help.   

Well....let's start having it be a tool to help winning instead of it seeming to be the tool that leads to us losing.    When we have a 3/4" nut to tighten, use a 3/4"  wrench.....not a 5/8ths wrench.   Or, if that nut is measured in inches or fractions thereof, don't pull out a metric wrench.   Make the tool work positively, not negatively. 

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23 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

I am not sick of analytics.......I am just sick of losing.    And some think that the Browns are losing because of analytics.   As Stefanski and Depo have said....it is just a tool to help.   

Well....let's start having it be a tool to help winning instead of it seeming to be the tool that leads to us losing.    When we have a 3/4" nut to tighten, use a 3/4"  wrench.....not a 5/8ths wrench.   Or, if that nut is measured in inches or fractions thereof, don't pull out a metric wrench.   Make the tool work positively, not negatively. 

Yes it is just another tool but like all tools you can get much better results when placed in the hands (or mind) of someone who knows how to use them.

Oh remember having tools is better than no tools.

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1 hour ago, jrb12711 said:

So you’re genuinely saying you wouldn’t want a coach with .630 winning percentage and two Super Bowls in a decade as your coach? I swear to God it’s like you people don’t watch the Browns on the field. Pete would have a statue if he had that same tenure in Cleveland.

Gumby and I both said pete carroll TYPE - not pete carroll.  I swear to God it's like you don't read the posts you're replying to.

Of course, then you might not get angry, and we can't have that!

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Im sick of all the unknowns..coaches...garrett...etc etc.

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54 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

I am not sick of analytics.......I am just sick of losing.    And some think that the Browns are losing because of analytics.   As Stefanski and Depo have said....it is just a tool to help.   

Well....let's start having it be a tool to help winning instead of it seeming to be the tool that leads to us losing.    When we have a 3/4" nut to tighten, use a 3/4"  wrench.....not a 5/8ths wrench.   Or, if that nut is measured in inches or fractions thereof, don't pull out a metric wrench.   Make the tool work positively, not negatively. 

As I mentioned earlier  from  that article, the Steelers  GM said everyone  pretty  much has the same numbers now,  its which  of those  numbers  you see as most important.  

DePo also has  said analytics are just a measure of the probability of an event. A player can have all the  right  numbers and still  be a monumental  bust. Vernon  Gholston  or Jamarcus  Russell  anyone?

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59 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Yes it is just another tool but like all tools you can get much better results when placed in the hands (or mind) of someone who knows how to use them.

Oh remember having tools is better than no tools.

Yes,  and it also helps a guy have better tools, if he is not so skilled with tools.  I mean, it is much easier change a tire with an electric or hydraulic tire changer than with a tire Iron. 

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27 minutes ago, hoorta said:

As I mentioned earlier  from  that article, the Steelers  GM said everyone  pretty  much has the same numbers now,  its which  of those  numbers  you see as most important.  

DePo also has  said analytics are just a measure of the probability of an event. A player can have all the  right  numbers and still  be a monumental  bust. Vernon  Gholston  or Jamarcus  Russell  anyone?

That begs the question:   why did it seem that for so many times the Browns took the guys that turned out to be the monumental bust, if all teams had the same numbers?  Was our FO always putting importance on the wrong numbers? 

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2 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

That begs the question:   why did it seem that for so many times the Browns took the guys that turned out to be the monumental bust, if all teams had the same numbers?  Was our FO always putting importance on the wrong numbers? 

Or they weren't  even using the  numbers. Remember  Justin  Gilbert? Then Haslam drafts Johnny Football  for PR, regardless of the  ton of  red flags. 

Or ignoring stuff that was obvious even to  us draft  amateurs,  ie- Trent  Richardson.  I opined at the time I  saw Trent get caught  from behind  plenty of  times in college.  You never saw that happen to guys like  Barry  Sanders or  Adrian Peterson.  

There was something  in a side comment from an article  West Side  Steve posted that I  happen to  agree with & it's sort of  scary.  There's too many  holes in the roster to fix in one off season (if you're  being objective), barring a miracle  draft and FA acquisitions. If meddling  Jimmy  is unreasonably expecting a deep  playoff run, and there's  only  marginal improvement,  he had damn well  better keep his fingers off of the nuke button this time, and give this incarnation  of the Browns FO and coaching staff a chance to improve. 

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They use CPU Tablets on the sidelines now.....but it use to be prints of pictures taken up in the booth and sent to the sidelines for the QB/OC to look at an 'analyze'.

Those pictures are analytics.  You're looking at tendencies for certain downs / distances, or offensive alignments.  It's just information gathering.  In this train of thought, you're in between plays and considering a play when your 'offensive analytics coach' in the headset states,  "They tend to be in 'such-n-such' defense and do 'such-n-such' at this down and distance.

It's all analytics.  Preparing for the draft, getting the measurables of players, how their body weight and mass relates to their position in the nfl.  It's all analytics.  It's information gathering, analyzing, and using,   

He with the most information, wins.    

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37 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Or they weren't  even using the  numbers. Remember  Justin  Gilbert? Then Haslam drafts Johnny Football  for PR, regardless of the  ton of  red flags. 

Or ignoring stuff that was obvious even to  us draft  amateurs,  ie- Trent  Richardson.  I opined at the time I  saw Trent get caught  from behind  plenty of  times in college.  You never saw that happen to guys like  Barry  Sanders or  Adrian Peterson.  

There was something  in a side comment from an article  West Side  Steve posted that I  happen to  agree with & it's sort of  scary.  There's too many  holes in the roster to fix in one off season (if you're  being objective), barring a miracle  draft and FA acquisitions. If meddling  Jimmy  is unreasonably expecting a deep  playoff run, and there's  only  marginal improvement,  he had damn well  better keep his fingers off of the nuke button this time, and give this incarnation  of the Browns FO and coaching staff a chance to improve. 

Well, that brings up the issue of expectations.  The fact is, this team was not eliminated until the next to the last week of the season.

What would be acceptable next year?   Is it OK if we get eliminated in the last week of the season?

Or, is anything short of a playoff berth a busted year?     I would think so.

What about division title?  Baltimore's 14-2 record seems a high mountain to climb for the Browns to win the division. 

So, a "deep playoff run" is an unreasonable expectation?  What about a shallow playoff run?

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2 hours ago, Unsympathetic said:

Gumby and I both said pete carroll TYPE - not pete carroll.  I swear to God it's like you don't read the posts you're replying to.

Of course, then you might not get angry, and we can't have that!

Oh come the fuck on man. You can’t try to word smith out of saying something.

Saying you don’t want a Pete Carroll type is saying you don’t want Pete Carroll. Don’t be obtuse.

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20 minutes ago, Orion said:

They use CPU Tablets on the sidelines now.....but it use to be prints of pictures taken up in the booth and sent to the sidelines for the QB/OC to look at an 'analyze'.

Those pictures are analytics.  You're looking at tendencies for certain downs / distances, or offensive alignments.  It's just information gathering.  In this train of thought, you're in between plays and considering a play when your 'offensive analytics coach' in the headset states,  "They tend to be in 'such-n-such' defense and do 'such-n-such' at this down and distance.

It's all analytics.  Preparing for the draft, getting the measurables of players, how their body weight and mass relates to their position in the nfl.  It's all analytics.  It's information gathering, analyzing, and using,   

He with the most information, wins.    

Well.....you must be Littlefinger.  "Information is power"?   

I will take the position of Cersei Lannister:    "Power is power", while she at her whim decides if she should have her guards cut Littlefinger's throat.

Analytics and all that information is fine......but I will take Talent.  He with the most Talent wins.   Altius, citius, fortius.   Higher, faster, stronger wins. 

 

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Well, that brings up the issue of expectations.  The fact is, this team was not eliminated until the next to the last week of the season.

What would be acceptable next year?   Is it OK if we get eliminated in the last week of the season?

Or, is anything short of a playoff berth a busted year?     I would think so.

What about division title?  Baltimore's 14-2 record seems a high mountain to climb for the Browns to win the division. 

So, a "deep playoff run" is an unreasonable expectation?  What about a shallow playoff run?

Well, I have no expectations for this year, and it's anyone's guess what Jimmy's are.  :)  After everything except the Super Bowl has played out- that "soft" 2020 schedule doesn't look quite as soft, with the Texans, Titans, and Eagles on it. 

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

i will take the position of Cersei Lannister:    "Power is power",

In our case, 'The Family'

The more information you can gather, sort and apply = the more informed the decision.    (predicated by tine restraints)

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6 minutes ago, Orion said:

In our case, 'The Family'

The more information you can gather, sort and apply = the more informed the decision.    (predicated by tine restraints)

Or you're just looking at "measurables" and not taking anything else into account. We would never have drafted Justin Gilbert if we had just looked beyond the measurables. Ditto Johnny Football. 

For sure teams do a lot of personality tests and background checks now- getting burned badly on those accounts has taught teams a severe lesson. and it's burned the Browns plenty of times not putting enough weight into off field antics. Starting with Jeremiah (robbing the pharmacy) Pharms,  Puffy Gordon, Johnny AA Manziel,  Antonio XFL Callaway, and probably a few others I don't remember off the top of my head. 

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36 minutes ago, Orion said:

In our case, 'The Family'

The more information you can gather, sort and apply = the more informed the decision.    (predicated by tine restraints)

Or you're just looking at "measurables" and not taking anything else into account. We would never have drafted Justin Gilbert if we had just looked beyond the measurables. Ditto Johnny Football. 

For sure teams do a lot of personality tests and background checks now- getting burned badly on those accounts has taught teams a severe lesson. and it's burned the Browns plenty of times not putting enough weight into off field antics. Starting with Jeremiah (robbing the pharmacy) Pharms,  Puffy Gordon, Johnny AA Manziel,  Antonio XFL Callaway, and probably a few others I don't remember off the top of my head. 

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