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Browns Road to the Playoffs

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3 hours ago, gumby73 said:

Turn in your scoreboard watching badge;)..since this post in under a hour..Tenn..35 Jags..3..Tenn.has next 3 of 5¬†on the road @Colts/@Oak./Texans/Saints/@Texans¬†..Bills At Dallas Thursday¬†ūü¶ÉūüĎĬ†Ravens/@Pitt/@Pats/J E T S¬† ¬†Edit-Tenn-42 Jags-20 F

Yea,  the Jags did us no favors....but at least they have dropped far behind the Browns.  

So, OK, we have to climb over several teams that are ahead of us.....while being mindful that there are teams behind us that want to climb over us. 

Jags, Chargers, Jets.  

The kind of fucked up thing is that the Steelers, as shitty as they are imo,   are currently in playoff position, with the #6 seed. They are tied with the Colts,  Titans and Raiders at 6-5.......but I do not think they will maintain that. 

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1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Just for Gip: The second half Superman does it to the Jags again. You can skip to 0:41 mark for the 74 yd Superman Cape play if you wish.¬†¬† LOLūüŹéÔłŹ Zoom zoom!ūü§£

 

We have 2 better RBs. But, I do think Vrabel knows what to do with him. 

 

MCC035988.png

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Quote

"Z and I..."

Someone's got a serious case of mancrush...

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Yea,  the Jags did us no favors....but at least they have dropped far behind the Browns.  

So, OK, we have to climb over several teams that are ahead of us.....while being mindful that there are teams behind us that want to climb over us. 

Jags, Chargers, Jets.  

The kind of fucked up thing is that the Steelers, as shitty as they are imo,   are currently in playoff position, with the #6 seed. They are tied with the Colts,  Titans and Raiders at 6-5.......but I do not think they will maintain that. 

If we get in position 10-6 or 9-7- we would likely hold Conference record tiebreaker  over the Colts and Raiders.  Of course no head to head  
We would hold The first tiebreaker over the Bills head to head.

Colts Bills Raiders all have some tough games coming up especially Buffalo.  Colts may have a slightly easier road.

if we go 10-6.  Titans need 2 loses.  9-7. Titans need three.  They also have a tough schedule left.

we could beat the Steelers next Sunday and they could win out and finish 10-6 especially if Ravens clinch it up week 17 and pull some guys. So just beating them twice we may still have To hope for another loss from Pburg if we go 9-7.

Titans and Steelers loses are a good thing they could be the two biggest threats.

The strange scenario we go 9-7 with a loss to the Cards and we hold a 4-0 record against the Rats and Squealers and they are in and we are out. 

 

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1 minute ago, Tour2ma said:

Someone's got a serious case of mancrush...

No, just pointing out that we are the ones that have taken the time to try to work this out and to comment on it. Did you see anyone else doing that?

And, Do you actually have anything constructive to contribute?  Or are you just going to sit there in Plato's cave? 

 

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10 hours ago, The Gipper said:

 The kind of fucked up thing is that the Steelers, as shitty as they are imo,   are currently in playoff position, with the #6 seed. They are tied with the Colts,  Titans and Raiders at 6-5.......but I do not think they will maintain that. 

#10. Browns

#9 Tennessee has the schedule left to win the division..*Let Em*..they are 1 game out & play Texans twice..Vrabel owns the better Defense 

#8 Colts-lost to Oak, but beat Tenn once,but not with Tanny..Colts at Tenn next Week..Helps when Tenn. splits head to head with Colts

#7 Oakland- Beat Colts, played poor today @KC next week, Play Tenn & Chargers head to head coming up 

#6 The Pits-Barely beat Hoyer with Colts..they travel to Zona too, @ resting Ravens last game of year..We need the division sweep of Pitt to win out any head to heads with them. Which we will jump ahead of, with both teams being 6-6 with next weeks win.. JUST BEAT the STEEL-QUEENS CLEVELAND..Chop'em down 1 week at a time.. and go win Tenn..

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Too many chips need to fall in the right spot.

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40 minutes ago, LBC mike said:

Too many chips need to fall in the right spot.

Yes....there are  a lot.   But a couple of those chips have fallen:  DATs beat Colts;   Jets upset Raiders.     They can't all fall at once.

Things that did not happen, chips that did not fall,  which could have helped us:

As we have said, Jags beating Tits.....nope, didn't happen.

Broncos beating Bills....also no.

Our biggest chip is just that the Browns need to keep winning. 

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Will update the division after the game tonight. Here is the Wild Card with Browns winning out, path to controlling their own destiny:

image.png

Wild Card

We are one games back with five games to go. Of the contenders ahead of us, we have only lost to one team: Tennessee. We have beaten Pittsburgh and Buffalo. We have Pittsburgh again on the schedule this week.

If we win out ...

Buffalo 7-3: we hold tiebreaker over them, need them to go 2-3 the rest of the way (Remember, there are two wild cards so one team can actually run ahead of us and we make the playoffs)

Tennessee 6-5: This is a team we don't want to get into a head-to-head tie breaker with, so we want them to lose two more times ... Or win the division

Indy 6-5: We need them to lose one more, would hold tiebreaker over them via AFC record.

Oakland 6-5: We need them to lose one more, would hold tiebreaker over them via AFC record.

Pittsburgh 6-5: Simply beat them this week and they can't catch us if we win out.

Now if the Colts or Titans take over the Texans, we need to the Texans to get to 6 losses We don't want a head-to-head with the Titans at 6 losses, so either need to lose two more or win the division. All other teams we would win tiebreakers at 10-6

 

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Yea,  the problem with that AFCS situation is that they all play each other.   While one team losing those division games helps us, the team winning acts against our interests. 

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This is all that needs to be known.  Win and you are pretty much in.

5-0 = 98% in

4-1 = 63% in

Playoffstatus.com

Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
5 of 5 100% 10 6 0 <1% 5% 13% 8% 43% 29% 2%
4 of 5 80% 9 7 0 X <1% 1% 3% 13% 46% 37%
3 of 5 60% 8 8 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 92%
2 of 5 40% 7 9 0 X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 5 20% 6 10 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 5 0% 5 11 0 X X X X X X 100%
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2 hours ago, LBC mike said:

Too many chips need to fall in the right spot.

Actually surprisingly no IF we take care of business 

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29 minutes ago, LBC mike said:

I think this article warrants copying in full here:

The playoffs might seem like a crazy goal for the 5-6 Cleveland Browns. But three straight wins, a favorable upcoming schedule to finish out the season and a lack of good teams in the AFC all make the postseason a more realistic outcome than you might think.

The AFC wild-card picture is very crowded after the Week 12 Sunday outcomes. Right now the Browns sit at the No. 10 seed, looking up at four teams with 6-5 records. One of those is the Pittsburgh Steelers, whom Cleveland faces in Week 13.

Pittsburgh currently holds the No. 6 seed, the final playoff spot. They would win tiebreakers over the Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders and Indianapolis Colts based on conference record. If the Browns win in Pittsburgh on Sunday, they’ll own the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh based on sweeping the Steelers.

Alas, the picture is more complicated than that. Head-to-head only matters when there are just two teams involved. But the Browns are looking very good in any multi-team tie, too. Like Pittsburgh, the Browns are currently 5-3 against AFC opponents. A win over the Steelers seizes that tiebreaker for Cleveland.

There are still loads of outcomes that will weigh into the race over the next five weeks. The Titans and Colts play in Week 13, and then Tennessee visits Oakland the following Sunday. The Jaguars, Chargers and Jets are all 4-7 and still alive, too.

Football Outsiders calculates the Browns’ playoff odds at 26.4 percent. At FiveThirtyEight, the odds are 30 percent. Their interactive tool allows some ability to project forward, so I ran a scenario of outcomes for Week 13.

The Browns’ odds jump to 54 percent with the following hypothetical results this coming week:

  1. Cleveland beats Pittsburgh
  2. Tennessee beats Indianapolis
  3. Kansas City beats Oakland

It goes up to 57 percent if the Cowboys knock off the 8-3 Buffalo Bills, the current wild-card leaders.

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Looking at the numbers if we are tied at 9-7 with anyone except the titans we will own the tiebreak as long as our one loss left on the schedule doesn't come this weekend. Even if it's multiple teams including the titans we would own the tie breaker. Obviously first tie break is head to head and why we don't want a 2 team tie with the titans, but if there are more than that it goes to conference record. 

If the browns are to finish at 9-7 it means they went 8-4 in the AFC.

The colts already have 5 losses in the afc. (No head to head tiebreaker)

The raiders currently only have 3 losses in afc but they would need two losses to to finish 9-7 and all games remaining are afc opponents. That would give them 5 losses in the afc. (No head to head tiebreaker)

The titans currently have 4 losses against afc opponents,  but again they need to pick up two losses to finish 9-7. Out of their 5 remaining games 4 are against AFC teams. Even if one loss comes from there nfc team (saints) the second loss would give them their 5th afc loss. (Need another team to finish at 9-7 with us and titans if they get there. 

Finally the Steelers.  They currently have 3 afc losses. They need two losses to finish at 9-7. Out of their 5 remaining games 4 are against the afc. Even if they lose to the cardinals for one of those losses as long as the browns give them the other one the Steelers would have 4 afc losses like the browns.  So in a 3 (or more) way tie with the steelers, browns and any of the above teams, the first team eliminated by tiebreaker would be the other team due to conference record.  Then it goes back to head to head which the browns would own 2-0.

 

If you were able to follow all of that basically as long as we win this weekend and finish at 9-7 I like the browns chances of taking the last wild card spot because all tiebreakers run through Cleveland (except that pesky tits game). I also don't believe 6 teams finish at 10-6 or above. I think that last spot is going to a 9-7 team and if we're 9-7 or better it's very likely that team is the browns. This weekend obviously root for the browns. Root for the colts to take out the titans (only team that has a h2h tiebreak over us at 9-7) and root for the chiefs to take down the raiders. 

 

 

So in every scenario where the browns beat the Steelers and tie someone at 9-7 for last spot it breaks down like

If its any of these teams at 9-7

Browns Steelers (Browns via head to head) 

Browns Colts (Browns via conf record) 

Browns Raiders (Browns via conf record) 

Browns Titans (Titans via h2h)

Browns Colts Raiders Titans or any combo of three (Browns via conf record) 

Browns Steelers Raiders Colts Titans or any combo of three or more with steelers (everyone but Browns and Steelers eliminated via conf record then Browns over Steelers via h2h)

Edited by bjh2130
Technically the browns could finish 9-3 in the conference if the one remaining loss is to the cardinals but that wouldn't negatively effect anything
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8 hours ago, gumby73 said:

#10. Browns

#9 Tennessee has the schedule left to win the division..*Let Em*..they are 1 game out & play Texans twice..Vrabel owns the better Defense 

#8 Colts-lost to Oak, but beat Tenn once,but not with Tanny..Colts at Tenn next Week..Helps when Tenn. splits head to head with Colts

#7 Oakland- Beat Colts, played poor today @KC next week, Play Tenn & Chargers head to head coming up 

#6 The Pits-Barely beat Hoyer with Colts..they travel to Zona too, @ resting Ravens last game of year..We need the division sweep of Pitt to win out any head to heads with them. Which we will jump ahead of, with both teams being 6-6 with next weeks win.. JUST BEAT the STEEL-QUEENS CLEVELAND..Chop'em down 1 week at a time.. and go win Tenn..

 

6 hours ago, LBC mike said:

Too many chips need to fall in the right spot.

Well, here's the chips that can help us tonight and in the next week.... Ravens- lose tonight against the Rams and then Sunday against the 49ers.  Cowboys beat Bills Turkey Day. Chiefs take care of the Raiders in KC.  I suppose we'd want the Colts to beat the Titans. Patriots have all but locked up the #1 seed, so go ahead and beat the Texans. 

Should all that come to pass,the Bills are still the #5, Colts\Texans are the #4,#6, And I'm not a Rocket Scientist to figure out who'd have the upper hand of the teams that are all 6-6, except it wouldn't look good for the Steelers. 

This assumes the Browns have to beat Pittsburgh. Should the Browns win out they'd hold any tiebreaker against them.   

Isn't this a lot more fund than already having to talking about who to draft in April?   

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OK, Official Weekly update:

image.png

Division

Ravens will need to go 1-4 the rest of the way, including losing to us. They didn't look like a 1-4 team last night, so ...

Wild Card

We are one games back with five games to go. Of the contenders ahead of us, we have only lost to one team: Tennessee. We have beaten Pittsburgh and Buffalo. We have Pittsburgh again on the schedule this week.

If we win out ...

Buffalo 7-3: we hold tiebreaker over them, need them to go 2-3 the rest of the way (Remember, there are two wild cards so one team can actually run ahead of us and we make the playoffs)

Tennessee 6-5: This is a team we don't want to get into a head-to-head tie breaker with, so we want them to lose two more times ... Or win the division

Indy 6-5: We need them to lose one more, would hold tiebreaker over them via AFC record.

Oakland 6-5: We need them to lose one more, would hold tiebreaker over them via AFC record.

Pittsburgh 6-5: Simply beat them this week and they can't catch us if we win out.

Now if the Colts or Titans take over the Texans, we need to the Texans to get to 6 losses We don't want a head-to-head with the Titans at 6 losses, so either need to lose two more or win the division. All other teams we would win tiebreakers at 10-6

This Week's Games:

Buffalo at Dallas, Thanksgiving: Pains me to say it, but go Boys!

Tennessee at Indy, Sunday 1 PM In the words of the dreaded Facebook Status: It's complicated. According to the simulator posted above, our playoff chances increase 1% if Tennessee, the team that holds the dreaded tiebreaker over us loses ... so I'm rooting for the Colts this week.

San Francisco at Baltimore, Sunday 1 PM: A chance to root for the Niners if you are still holding out hope for the division, or if , like me, you just enjoyin rooting against Baltimore.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Sunday 1 PM: I think you know what this one is all about.

Oakland at Kansas City, Sunday 4:25 PM: Let the Chiefs win and roll toward division title

New England at Houston , Sunday Night, 8:25 PM Oh, crap, we gotta root for Dallas AND New England?

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28 minutes ago, Zombo said:

OK, Official Weekly update:

San Francisco at Baltimore, Sunday 1 PM: A chance to root for the Niners if you are still holding out hope for the division, or if , like me, you just enjoyin rooting against Baltimore.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Sunday 1 PM: I think you know what this one is all about.

Oakland at Kansas City, Sunday 4:25 PM: Let the Chiefs win and roll toward division title

New England at Houston , Sunday Night, 8:25 PM Oh, crap, we gotta root for Dallas AND New England?

The enemy of my enemy is my friend is an ancient proverb which suggests that two opposing parties can or should work together against a common enemy. The earliest known expression of this concept is found in a Sanskrit treatise on statecraft, the Arthashastra, which dates to around the 4th century BC, while the first recorded use of the current English version came in 1884.......

GO BROWNS, think playoffs, whatever it takes.....baby !  ;)

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1 hour ago, mjp28 said:

The enemy of my enemy is my friend is an ancient proverb which suggests that two opposing parties can or should work together against a common enemy. The earliest known expression of this concept is found in a Sanskrit treatise on statecraft, the Arthashastra, which dates to around the 4th century BC, while the first recorded use of the current English version came in 1884.......

GO BROWNS, think playoffs, whatever it takes.....baby !  ;)

I thought it was Lao Tzu.

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You have made my  "If the Playoffs started today" thread superfluous...except for this:

"Race" for the #1 overall pick:

Bengals  0-11

Miami, Giants, Redskins....2-9

Falcons and Broncos  3-8

Cardinals and Lions  3-7-1

Those are your Top 8 top draft picks for next year at this point.

The Browns right now would pick between  13 and 16....as  they, the Eagles, Bears, Panthers each have 5-6 records. 

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Given the Ravens performance (and likely division crown) and the Browns' lack of prior to the 3 game winning streak, lets start a wild card watch so we know who to root for/against till the end of the season.

Watching the 4th Q of the Dallas -Bills game with the Bills up 26-7, looks like we can't catch a break. Other games rooting interests:

Indianapolis over Tennessee (Colts won first match 19-17)

Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

San Francisco over Baltimore

Denver over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Oakland (distances Chiefs’ lead in division)

Houston over New England (distances Texans’ lead in division)

*Courtesy of Dawgsbynature.

Happy Thanksgiving and Go Browns!

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3 hours ago, MDDawg said:

Given the Ravens performance (and likely division crown) and the Browns' lack of prior to the 3 game winning streak, lets start a wild card watch so we know who to root for/against till the end of the season.

Watching the 4th Q of the Dallas -Bills game with the Bills up 26-7, looks like we can't catch a break. Other games rooting interests:

Indianapolis over Tennessee (Colts won first match 19-17)

Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

San Francisco over Baltimore

Denver over LA Chargers

Kansas City over Oakland (distances Chiefs’ lead in division)

Houston over New England (distances Texans’ lead in division)

*Courtesy of Dawgsbynature.

Happy Thanksgiving and Go Browns!

already a thread there guy... :)  

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Buffalo basically solidifies themselves that #5 spot.  Meaning that the Browns, as I have thought all along, have to work on getting #6.

Our dilemma, aside from winning the rest of our games, is that we need other teams to get knocked off:   Specifially, Raiders/Tits/Colts.

The problem is that these teams schedules are intermixed the rest of the way,  i.e. they play each other a lot.  One beats the other, but that means one gets a game on us.  e.g.   here is the Raiders schedule...who, hopefully, can be taken care of by the other AFCW teams, Chargers/Chiefs/Broncos....but, they also play the Titans:

13 Sun December 1 4:25PM ET preview     6-5 @ Kansas City Chiefs                              
14 Sun December 8 4:25PM ET preview     6-5   Tennessee Titans                              
15 Sun December 15 4:05PM ET preview     6-5   Jacksonville Jaguars                              
16 Sun December 22 4:05PM ET preview     6-5 @ Los Angeles Chargers                              
17 Sun December 29 4:25PM ET preview     6-5 @ Denver Broncos

 

So, I think, here particularly, we have to root for the Raiders that week...and for those other teams otherwise.

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Here is the Colts schedule:

3 Sun December 1 1:00PM ET preview     6-5   Tennessee Titans                              
14 Sun December 8 1:00PM ET preview     6-5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers                              
15 Mon December 16 8:15PM ET preview     6-5 @ New Orleans Saints                              
16 Sun December 22 1:00PM ET preview     6-5   Carolina Panthers                              
17 Sun December 29 1:00PM ET preview     6-5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars                              

I think here, we have to want the Colts to beat the Titans....and then hope for big favors from those 3 NFCW teams that they play.

And here is the Titans schedule:

13 Sun December 1 1:00PM ET preview     6-5 @ Indianapolis Colts                              
14 Sun December 8 4:25PM ET preview     6-5 @ Oakland Raiders                              
15 Sun December 15 1:00PM ET preview     6-5   Houston Texans                              
16 Sun December 22 1:00PM ET preview     6-5   New Orleans Saints                              
17 Sun December 29 1:00PM ET preview     6-5 @ Houston Texans

 

This schedule is a cornucopia of trouble for the Browns.  Clearly we need the DumbAssTexas to take the Tits out twice,  but they also play the Colts and the Raiders.   LIke I said, of those 3, one team losing helps us, but if they lose to another team that we need to lose...WTF can they do? 

All they can do is take care of business and win.

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On 11/26/2019 at 8:27 AM, Zombo said:

OK, Official Weekly update:

image.png

 

 

 

Buffalo is now 9-3.  

After this weekend, at worst they will have a 3 game lead on the Browns with 4 games to play.  

Interesting that on Thanksgiving Day, the NFL chose to have  5 of the 6 teams playing that day be from the NFC, and only 1 AFC team. 

So, the focus is all on the AFC this week. 

Even with that, there are multiple games this week between contenders.

Browns vs. Steelers,   of course

49ers/Ravens....some say these may be the best 2 teams in football.   Fuck that. Fuck the Ravens in any circumstance (the only situation where that sentiment may be in doubt is when they play the Steelers.   I would have loved for THAT game to have been the one being played this weekend)

Raiders/Chiefs....based on everything said here, we need to be Chiefs fans I think.

Pats vs. Texans....We don't care who wins this, as long as the DATs take care of the Tits later on.  Sun. night.

Vikings vs. Seahawks.... just a sit back and relax interesting/entertaining game in the other conf.  

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Well, that was a damaging, discouraging and demoralizing game that was deadly to our playoff chances.

But as long as there is a mathematical chance we will play the "what if we win out" game:

image.png

So .. Winning out gets us to 9-7. With 10 wins, Baltimore is now officially out of reach. Of the six games we had rooting interest in, only one went our way: KC over Oakland. So the Wild Card scenarios are now as such:

Buffalo 10-3: The only way we forge a tie with them if for them to lose out, which gives Pittsburgh an 8th win, since they are on their schedule. For all intents and purposes we are going against the following teams for the 6th Seed:

Pittsburgh 7-5: In a direct tie-breaker situation with the Steelers, since head-to-head is a draw, the next tie-breaker is divisional record, which we would beat them on if we win out. So we need them to lose two games. They have @ Ari, Buf, @NYJ, @ Balt

Tennessee 7-5: They hold a direct tie-breaker over us so we need them to lose 3 out of 4 or win the division. But if they win the division then we need Houston to lose 3 out 4, all to AFC teams. So best scenario is for them to get swept in two meetings with Houston and those one of either of @Oak and NO at home

Oakland 6-6:  We hold the conference record tie-breaker over them in a direct tie, so we need them to lose just one more, they have Ten, Jax, @LAC @Den

Indianapolis 6-6: Same as Raiders, we have the division tie-breaker over them, so we need one more loss. They are @TB, @NO Car @Jax

So our biggest blockages to the #6 seed are Tennessee (or Houston) and Pittsburgh.

Looking at three different predictor indexes in this thread, estimate our chances at 4,8%,5%, and 6% ... So it's about 1 in 20.

This week's rooting interest:

Colts @ Buccaneers, Sunday 1 PM: Go Bucs

Bengals @ Browns, Sunday 1 PM: Goes without saying

Steelers @ Cardinals Sunday 1 PM: Go Cards

Titans @ Raiders, Sunday 425 PM: Go Raiders

Z

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Well, that was a damaging, discouraging and demoralizing game that was deadly to our playoff chances.

But as long as there is a mathematical chance we will play the "what if we win out" game:

 

So .. Winning out gets us to 9-7. With 10 wins, Baltimore is now officially out of reach. Of the six games we had rooting interest in, only one went our way: KC over Oakland. So the Wild Card scenarios are now as such:

Buffalo 10-3: The only way we forge a tie with them if for them to lose out, which gives Pittsburgh an 8th win, since they are on their schedule. For all intents and purposes we are going against the following teams for the 6th Seed:

Pittsburgh 7-5: In a direct tie-breaker situation with the Steelers, since head-to-head is a draw, the next tie-breaker is divisional record, which we would beat them on if we win out. So we need them to lose two games. They have @ Ari, Buf, @NYJ, @ Balt

Tennessee 7-5: They hold a direct tie-breaker over us so we need them to lose 3 out of 4 or win the division. But if they win the division then we need Houston to lose 3 out 4, all to AFC teams. So best scenario is for them to get swept in two meetings with Houston and those one of either of @Oak and NO at home

Oakland 6-6:  We hold the conference record tie-breaker over them in a direct tie, so we need them to lose just one more, they have Ten, Jax, @LAC @Den

Indianapolis 6-6: Same as Raiders, we have the division tie-breaker over them, so we need one more loss. They are @TB, @NO Car @Jax

So our biggest blockages to the #6 seed are Tennessee (or Houston) and Pittsburgh.

Looking at three different predictor indexes in this thread, estimate our chances at 4,8%,5%, and 6% ... So it's about 1 in 20.

This week's rooting interest:

Colts @ Buccaneers, Sunday 1 PM: Go Bucs

Bengals @ Browns, Sunday 1 PM: Goes without saying

Steelers @ Cardinals Sunday 1 PM: Go Cards

Titans @ Raiders, Sunday 425 PM: Go Raiders

Z

Z, yes there's a mathematical chance- but the road to the playoffs is as realistic as following the Yellow Brick Road to the Emerald City. 

Those early losses, plus not being able to beat the Broncos and now the Steelers killed us. 

As I've long said it's now "wait till next year". Except for some of us oldsters we're running out of next years- fast. 

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