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Zombo

Browns Road to the Playoffs

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I know we've got a few threads like this, but I want to concentrate on who we are "rooting for" to win or lose each week. I assume the Browns win out, and see what else we need before we can control our own destiny.

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We are in the 10 hole, need to make it to at least #6. Two ways to get there:

Division

This looks unlikely with Ravens opening up 4 game lead with six to play.

If we win out ...

We would give Ravens a third loss, and they could do no better than 2-3 in their other 5 games, we win the tie breaker at 10-6.

 

Wild Card

Much more doable path, we are two games back with six games to go. Of the contenders ahead of us, we have only lost to one team: Tennessee. We have beaten Pittsburgh and Buffalo. We have Pittsburgh again on the schedule.

If we win out ...

Buffalo 7-3: we hold tiebreaker over them, need them to go 3-3 the rest of the way (Remember, there are two wild cards so one team can actually run ahead of us and we make the playoffs)

Houston & Indy 6-4: One of the them will be 6-5 after this week and one will be in the drivers seat for the division, we would need whoever loses out to lose at least one more game. Our AFC record will probably win any tiebreakers over teams we haven't played.

Oakland 6-4: They can go no better than 4-2 the rest of the way to catch them.

Pittsburgh 5-5: Simply beat them next week and they can't catch us if we win out.

Tennessee 5-5: This is a team we don't want to get into a head-to-head tie breaker with, so we want them to lose two more times.

Not worried about Jax at 4-6 because they don't own a tiebreaker over us.

So this week's rooting interest:

Big Games

Rams over Baltimore ... Maybe last chance to cling onto hope for division crown

Broncos over Bills ... Upset would be huge for us

Jet over Raiders ... Another big underdog ... If we can get one out of these top three, that would be cool

Jags over Tits ... This could be a 50/50 game, would be great if Foles and Co. pulled it off.

Would be great, but not necessary or likely:

Bungles over Steelers.

If you want someone to root for tonight: The Texans have the better AFC record, and I feel they are the better team, so I'd kind root for them to take the divison and the Colts to fall back into the Wild Card.

Zombo

 

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Just win, baby....

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You mimic some of what I said on the other thread, with a couple of exceptions:

A.  I conceded that the Browns would have 1 loss the rest of the way.  

B. With that, I conceded a WC spot to Buffalo, and a division title to the Ratfuckers.

C. Ergo,  I looked at as to how the Browns could snag the #6 spot......which, if you look over there, I think is doable, even with another loss. 

Some other things:

1. I agree with you that essentially, we need Houston to claim the AFCS title....and for the other teams in that division,  particularly the Tits to fall back behind us.  And we need the Raiders to fall back at least tied.   We can beat any of those teams (Indy/Jax/Raiders/Spermsuckers)  in a tie break situation, except the Tits. 

2. I agree with you that we do need some upets to come through...by the Jets.   We also need the NFCN to come through.  Expecially Tampa Bay...who plays 3 of our competitors. So, pump some life into those SW Floridians Z. 

That Denver loss....imo, really fucked us more than any other loss.  That was a case where both the offense and the defense failed us.  They never can let that happen again. 

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Regarding the Titans- hope for losses- they don't have an easy way out the last six, playing the Texans twice, Colts, Raiders, and Saints. 

The problem in the "what if" scenario- losses in some of those games helps another team that we have to leapfrog. 

MHO? Beat Miami and the Steelers again, and then we can talk.....  

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50 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Regarding the Titans- hope for losses- they don't have an easy way out the last six, playing the Texans twice, Colts, Raiders, and Saints. 

The problem in the "what if" scenario- losses in some of those games helps another team that we have to leapfrog. 

MHO? Beat Miami and the Steelers again, and then we can talk.....  

Sure but this form is for talking so we’re premature ejaculating on our what ifs. 

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So, here we go with step one of the Browns improbable comeback.

We (Z and I) have concluded that it is best for the Browns that the Texans win tonight.

Any disagreement? 

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how bout a tie? Houston has 3 of 5 games remaining at home & a easier what's left than Colts. including 2 games with Tennessee 😤..Colts are on the road 3 of 5 & got Tennessee next week at home..than @Saints/@ TB/Carolina/@jags......flip a coin, but we need the Titans out too 

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Colts/DAT game:     This Houston team is tackling about as good as the Browns tackled against Denver....in other words, hardly at all.  

They clearly miss JJ Watt. 

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nothing cute about these 2 teams running games.follow your power blocks. why pass to TY? 20-17 Houston 9 min left

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17 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

nothing cute about these 2 teams running games.follow your power blocks. why pass to TY? 20-17 Houston 9 min left

Same....2:00 left. 

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Reposted from other thread:

Colts win tonight.   That helps the Browns cause....a bit.   One chip in the ante for us.

Texans win makes them  7-4 and in control in AFCS.    Their conference record is 6-2

Colts are now  6-5.   Conference record is  5-5

And to remind you:    Browns are 4-6, but 4-3 in conference. 

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Fans just gotta admit the division is probably a lost cause at this point. I'm not sure I see the Ravens losing more than a game or two before the playoffs.

Bills could easily go 3-3 (they got Pats, Ravens, and Cowboys yet to go, but winnable games after that)

Honestly, after that what I think the Browns will want to see is the Texans clearly taking one spot (they play the Titans twice) and we get the #6 off the tiebreaker from the Bills.

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51 minutes ago, jrb12711 said:

Fans just gotta admit the division is probably a lost cause at this point. I'm not sure I see the Ravens losing more than a game or two before the playoffs.

Bills could easily go 3-3 (they got Pats, Ravens, and Cowboys yet to go, but winnable games after that)

Honestly, after that what I think the Browns will want to see is the Texans clearly taking one spot (they play the Titans twice) and we get the #6 off the tiebreaker from the Bills.

No...if Bills go 3-3...they could take the first WC...the #5 seed.    Browns best bet is the #6.   For that, we gotta beat out, Raiders,  the three AFCS teams that don't win the division... (Houston taking lead in that division helped)  .and the Spermsuckers.  

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11 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

No...if Bills go 3-3...they could take the first WC...the #5 seed.    Browns best bet is the #6.   For that, we gotta beat out, Raiders,  the three AFCS teams that don't win the division... (Houston taking lead in that division helped)  .and the Spermsuckers.  

If we are both 10-6, we'd be the 5 and they would be the 6.

Z

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11 minutes ago, Zombo said:

If we are both 10-6, we'd be the 5 and they would be the 6.

Z

Right....but in my hypothetical, I was giving them the 5. 

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54 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

No...if Bills go 3-3...they could take the first WC...the #5 seed.    Browns best bet is the #6.   For that, we gotta beat out, Raiders,  the three AFCS teams that don't win the division... (Houston taking lead in that division helped)  .and the Spermsuckers.  

Eh, let me say a bit clearer I suppose. I could easily see the Texans/winning 11 games as well as the Colts. Colts IMO are a sneaky good team and have a winnable schedule (save NO) which could net them 11 wins.

In that case I believe Colts then take division, Texans #5 and Browns would get #6 based on H2H with Bills.

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10 minutes ago, jrb12711 said:

Eh, let me say a bit clearer I suppose. I could easily see the Texans/winning 11 games as well as the Colts. Colts IMO are a sneaky good team and have a winnable schedule (save NO) which could net them 11 wins.

In that case I believe Colts then take division, Texans #5 and Browns would get #6 based on H2H with Bills.

Gip has already granted the Bill's the #5, and apparently we must abide.

Z

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On 11/21/2019 at 10:39 AM, Tour2ma said:

1. Just win, baby....

2. Everything else.

Should make for an interesting December.

 

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3 hours ago, Zombo said:

Gip has already granted the Bill's the #5, and apparently we must abide.

Z

I am only trying to be a bit logical, and realistic.

Bills are now  7-3.   Browns 4-6. We have to make up 3 games to catch them. 

Their schedule looks like this:

Broncos....Cowboys....Ravens....Steelers....Pats.....Jets.     Yea, a tough schedule.  But still...3 games is a LOT in just 6. 

Explain the scenario where the Browns take the #5 spot.   I am all for it...but I want to see how it would work.

jrb has both the DATs and the Colts winning 11.  How does that get us in?

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3 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

I am only trying to be a bit logical, and realistic.

Bills are now  7-3.   Browns 4-6. We have to make up 3 games to catch them. 

Their schedule looks like this:

Broncos....Cowboys....Ravens....Steelers....Pats.....Jets.     Yea, a tough schedule.  But still...3 games is a LOT in just 6. 

Explain the scenario where the Browns take the #5 spot.   I am all for it...but I want to see how it would work.

jrb has both the DATs and the Colts winning 11.  How does that get us in?

If you'll note my original post in this thread, I am only dealing with hypotheticals for us winning out and going 10-6 at this point. We would be a #5 seed as long as no other second place team won 11 games, or we didn't finish in a head-to head tie with Tennessee. We've got tiebreakers over virtually everyone else.

So, yes, to catch the Bills they would need to go no better than 3-3, etc. it is all laid out in my very first post. I'll be updating it each week.

Zombo

 

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5 minutes ago, Zombo said:

If you'll note my original post in this thread, I am only dealing with hypotheticals for us winning out and going 10-6 at this point. We would be a #5 seed as long as no other second place team won 11 games, or we didn't finish in a head-to head tie with Tennessee. We've got tiebreakers over virtually everyone else.

So, yes, to catch the Bills they would need to go no better than 3-3, etc. it is all laid out in my very first post. I'll be updating it each week.

Zombo

 

Yes, I saw that,  but I also gave an alternative that has the Browns losing another game.  That is my attempt to be a bit more realistic.

Even then... Maybe the Bills can lose 4 of their next 6?   They will be underdogs to the Ravens, Cowboys and Pats.   They certainly need to beat the Spermsuckers....so give them that win.   Then we leave it up to the Broncos or Jets.    The Broncos we have seen are capable...the Jets not so much, but possible.

So, OK, on second thought.....the Bills CAN go 2-4 the remainder of their schedule without that really being too much of a stretch....and, ERGO, even going 5-1 in the next 6 games...the Browns can overtake them for the 5 spot.

Good to talk these things out. !!

 

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Gip just gotta be Gip...

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5 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Gip just gotta be Gip...

Gutless  Wonder gotta be Gutless Wonder.   If you were not such a wuss, you would be able to follow along with a conversation that is going on between the adults here. 

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On 11/21/2019 at 10:25 AM, Zombo said:

I know we've got a few threads like this, but I want to concentrate on who we are "rooting for" to win or lose each week. I assume the Browns win out, and see what else we need before we can control our own destiny.

image.png

We are in the 10 hole, need to make it to at least #6. Two ways to get there:

Division

This looks unlikely with Ravens opening up 4 game lead with six to play.

If we win out ...

We would give Ravens a third loss, and they could do no better than 2-3 in their other 5 games, we win the tie breaker at 10-6.

 

Wild Card

Much more doable path, we are two games back with six games to go. Of the contenders ahead of us, we have only lost to one team: Tennessee. We have beaten Pittsburgh and Buffalo. We have Pittsburgh again on the schedule.

If we win out ...

Buffalo 7-3: we hold tiebreaker over them, need them to go 3-3 the rest of the way (Remember, there are two wild cards so one team can actually run ahead of us and we make the playoffs)

Houston & Indy 6-4: One of the them will be 6-5 after this week and one will be in the drivers seat for the division, we would need whoever loses out to lose at least one more game. Our AFC record will probably win any tiebreakers over teams we haven't played.

Oakland 6-4: They can go no better than 4-2 the rest of the way to catch them.

Pittsburgh 5-5: Simply beat them next week and they can't catch us if we win out.

Tennessee 5-5: This is a team we don't want to get into a head-to-head tie breaker with, so we want them to lose two more times.

Not worried about Jax at 4-6 because they don't own a tiebreaker over us.

So this week's rooting interest:

Big Games

Rams over Baltimore ... Maybe last chance to cling onto hope for division crown

Broncos over Bills ... Upset would be huge for us

Jet over Raiders ... Another big underdog ... If we can get one out of these top three, that would be cool

Jags over Tits ... This could be a 50/50 game, would be great if Foles and Co. pulled it off.

Would be great, but not necessary or likely:

Bungles over Steelers.

If you want someone to root for tonight: The Texans have the better AFC record, and I feel they are the better team, so I'd kind root for them to take the divison and the Colts to fall back into the Wild Card.

Zombo

 

Browns win ...

Colts and Raiders lose ...

One game back.

Zombo

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ill Believe if we pulled it out next week.

lets say we go 9-7 lose to Balt.  9-7 could do it.  I think the bills will be in and the main competition we would have in this scenario would be the the Colts.  We would own the second tiebreaker over them.  I think the Raiders have a couple losses left in them too and we would own a tiebreaker there as well

8-4 conference record with only the titans to worry about with head to head.

head to head and then conference record tiebreakers in that order.

we could own every conceivable tiebreaker over many teams in contention.

we need the titans to fold down the stretch and their schedule isn’t easy 


 

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37 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Browns win ...

Colts and Raiders lose ...

One game back.

Zombo

Yes,   good wins for us.....expecially the Raiders loss.    Jags beating Titans today would help tremendously....but per what I am seeing  Tits up 7-0 with 2 minutes left in the half....but Jags in scoring position. 

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31 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

ill Believe if we pulled it out next week.

lets say we go 9-7 lose to Balt.  9-7 could do it.  I think the bills will be in and the main competition we would have in this scenario would be the the Colts.  We would own the second tiebreaker over them.  I think the Raiders have a couple losses left in them too and we would own a tiebreaker there as well

8-4 conference record with only the titans to worry about with head to head.

head to head and then conference record tiebreakers in that order.

we could own every conceivable tiebreaker over many teams in contention.

we need the titans to fold down the stretch and their schedule isn’t easy 


 

Both Z and I have spelled things out over a couple of threads.   It is true, if all worked out properly, we could have the tiebreaker edge over everyone really but the Tits, so, yea, we need to have them fold.   My concern there is that I think their HC, Mike Vrabel, is a real motivator and it will be a major issue to get them to fold. 

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2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

 Jags beating Titans today would help tremendously....but per what I am seeing  Tits up 7-0 with 2 minutes left in the half....but Jags in scoring position. 

Turn in your scoreboard watching badge;)..since this post in under a hour..Tenn..35 Jags..3..Tenn.has next 3 of 5 on the road @Colts/@Oak./Texans/Saints/@Texans ..Bills At Dallas Thursday 🦃👀 Ravens/@Pitt/@Pats/J E T S   Edit-Tenn-42 Jags-20 F

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1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Both Z and I have spelled things out over a couple of threads.   It is true, if all worked out properly, we could have the tiebreaker edge over everyone really but the Tits, so, yea, we need to have them fold.   My concern there is that I think their HC, Mike Vrabel, is a real motivator and it will be a major issue to get them to fold. 

I don’t know They’ve been up and down all year. if we lose 1 they would have to go 2-3 down the stretch.

I put the Bills in- they’ve had a cakewalk schedule all year. Last weeks Miami game was there road game outside of Cleveland and the meadowlands for two.

But you are right the Titans are the major threat followed by the Colts and then the Raiders (although we would hold tiebreaker on both almost 100% certain on that).  

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Just for Gip: The second half Superman does it to the Jags again. You can skip to 0:41 mark for the 74 yd Superman Cape play if you wish.   LOL🏎️ Zoom zoom!🤣

 

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