What is your REVISED *OCTOBER PREDICTION of the 2019 season record? *DECEMBER Review.

[mjp28]

8 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

 (Questionable that they do things right?  Sure....but I still think they have a fair chance)

Right now they have two chances slim and none and  at 2-5 have to play the undefeated odds on favorite to win the Superbowl on the road as +13 underdogs.

Fair chance?  Try have to have the best game of the year to even try to save their season at 3-5 with half of the season gone.

GO BROWNS,  "do you believe in miracles"  tune in at 4:25 pm and find out.  A win would be "spectacular"!

[Dste Ace]

On 10/17/2019 at 2:16 PM, jiggins7919 said:

6-10

We're undisciplined, we turn the ball over, we don't throw TD passes, we don't score DEFENSIVE TDs, and we don't make the plays when they matter the most.  That's the biggest thing, right there.  When we need to make something happen, when the game is ON THE LINE...we choke.  Basically, this team has absolutely NO MAGIC.  Zip, zilch, nada, nil.  Let me ask you, how many people on this board felt like we were going to go down the field and score against the Seahawks to win the game?  I think it's a safe bet that not many of us thought we were just going to march down the field and win.  That right there...that expectation that something great is going to happen...THAT'S what is missing from our team.  We still expect to step on our Johnson, and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  We HOPE someone on the team will make a play instead of EXPECTING to make the play.

NOW...if "something" changes?  If we find the "magic"?  I'm telling you, we're a play or two away from winning some games, and I know that most teams in the NFL can say that, but you have to figure our big names are going to start making big plays.  Garrett gets a strip-sack that's returned for a TD.  OBJ one-handed grab for 7.  Chubb breaking loose, Greedy pick-6...whatever.   We start making those 2-3 great plays a game, and we can be something.  We can win the division, but we have to stop beating ourselves and start stringing together wins.  Now. 

 

[The Gipper]

41 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Right now they have two chances slim and none and  at 2-5 have to play the undefeated odds on favorite to win the Superbowl on the road as +13 underdogs.

Fair chance?  Try have to have the best game of the year to even try to save their season at 3-5 with half of the season gone.

GO BROWNS,  "do you believe in miracles"  tune in at 4:25 pm and find out.  A win would be "spectacular"!

Don't tell me about the fucking odds....those odds don't mean shit....and they are likely dead fucking wrong.  The key is to win against the division, and the conference.

They have 10 games remaining:  5 against  Pitt/Cin/Balt.   They also play Dolphins and Cardinals and Broncos.  By all rights, they should win 7 of those 8 games....if they are who we think they are.  And what we think they are is simply the better team than any of those opponents.  And then they should get a split vs.  Pats/Bills.  

There really should be nothing "miraculous" about accomplishing all that.  Not at all.  

You said you look at the entire season, the entire schedule.  Well, I just broke  down the big picture for you. 

[mjp28]

Really?  When your slim hopes depends on someone else losing you're in trouble.  5-2 > 2-5 and hoping you go 7-2, 8-1 or 9-0.

The BROWNS who we all know and love have dug themselves an immense hole and have to be nearly perfect for the rest of the season.

Not my theory just the facts.

[mjp28]

57 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Don't tell me about the fucking odds....

There really should be nothing "miraculous" about accomplishing all that.  Not at all.  

Listen junior yes I know that you are just slightly younger than me but sometimes you write like born yesterday.  OH IS THAT A SONG TOO?  

I hope that your miracle comes true and the BROWNS win the AFCN.

[The Gipper]

8 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Really?  When your slim hopes depends on someone else losing you're in trouble.  5-2 > 2-5 and hoping you go 7-2, 8-1 or 9-0.

The BROWNS who we all know and love have dug themselves an immense hole and have to be nearly perfect for the rest of the season.

Not my theory just the facts.

Based on the talent they have on this team vs. the talent on the teams they play the remainder of this year......7-2  should be expected. 

Lets here your analysis of why you think that should not be the case?    The only thing that should temper that expectation is:   Questionable coaching. 

(but, you are right.....they cannot rely on the Ravens to lose.....but I am talking about making the playoffs, perhaps even as  a Wildcard if they do what they are capable of doing.)

[mjp28]

1 minute ago, The Gipper said:

 

(but, you are right.....they cannot rely on the Ravens to lose.....but I am talking about making the playoffs, perhaps even as  a Wildcard if they do what they are capable of doing.)

Well 1. They play NE and will likely end up 2-6

2. They need Buffalo to tank in a division with the NYJ and MIA.

SO how do you make anything at 2-6?

[The Gipper]

8 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Listen junior yes I know that you are just slightly younger than me but sometimes you write like born yesterday.  OH IS THAT A SONG TOO?  

I hope that your miracle comes true and the BROWNS win the AFCN.

Well...geezer, if you have given up on the Browns for this season....why are you even bothering to participate on here? 

As like I said, it would by no means be a miracle for them to make the playoffs, either as AFCN champs or as a WC.....it is mere expectations based upon the talent on this team that they should compete for a playoff spot and the schedules that they each play.    The Ravens do have a far tougher schedule ahead than do the Browns...(but sure...it will be tough to catch them even then) They have Pats/Texans/Rams/49ers/Bills...and Browns yet to play.  There only seemingly gimme games are another vs. Bengals and a Jets game. 

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Well 1. They play NE and will likely end up 2-6

2. They need Buffalo to tank in a division with the NYJ and MIA.

SO how do you make anything at 2-6?

Lets start with the fact that you cannot apparently count.  The Browns are now  2-4.  If they lose to the Pats...which, sure, is to be expected, they would be only 2-5, not 2-6.  

And, as noted, they could/should win  7 of their last nine games after NE.   You are the one that loves the betting odds.  Isn't it fair to say that the Browns should/could possibly be the betting favorite in that many of those remaining games? :

Two games vs.  Cinci?

Two games vs. Pitt?

Dolphins

Broncos

Cardinals

Ravens at home?

Bills.  

As far as I see it, maybe the only games they could be underdogs in are the Bills and the game at Pitt....perhaps? 

I don't know...I suspect you have your betting sources that can tell you this stuff.  And, of course, we know the odds can change drastically, depending on how they do in the coming weeks.   If they really go into the tank....because of issues we have identified, all that can change to the negative.  If they really go on a streak, their betting odds in their favor could go up drastically.

[mjp28]

First after the last loss according to those egghead stats guys the BROWNS playoff chances were down to 22%, lose again and what 12%?  10%?

Second I've seen all of the AFC contenders schedules the BROWNS are ok but will need help.

16 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Lets start with the fact that you cannot apparently count.  The Browns are now  2-4.  If they lose to the Pats...which, sure, is to be expected, they would be only 2-5, not 2-6.  

Oh sorry I was just finishing my morning PT and was up typing in my lap on my tablet, my mistake.  I think in my mind I was factoring in the next game loss already.

Maybe Al Michaels can call the next game and we can hear the most exciting words in sports with 00:04 left..... "do you believe in miracles, YES!" 

IF the Browns win it would be the game of the season.  ( and I can add and many other things )

 

[The Gipper]

2 hours ago, mjp28 said:

First after the last loss according to those egghead stats guys the BROWNS playoff chances were down to 22%, lose again and what 12%?  10%?

Second I've seen all of the AFC contenders schedules the BROWNS are ok but will need help.

Oh sorry I was just finishing my morning PT and was up typing in my lap on my tablet, my mistake.  I think in my mind I was factoring in the next game loss already.

Maybe Al Michaels can call the next game and we can hear the most exciting words in sports with 00:04 left..... "do you believe in miracles, YES!" 

IF the Browns win it would be the game of the season.  ( and I can add and many other things )

 

Again....what are the odds for each individual game the Browns have coming up?  Or do they not publish those yet.  Like I said, they should be favored in like  7 of the 9,  post NE.

IF the Browns win the games they are supposed to win against inferior teams, their odds vastly improve IMO.

Why are you having such difficulty with that simple concept?

If the Browns make it to 9-7...they should be on the cusp of a playoff berth.

That concept should be as simple as pi.

[mjp28]

41 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Again....what are the odds for each individual game the Browns have coming up?  Or do they not publish those yet.  Like I said, they should be favored in like  7 of the 9,  post NE.

 

That depends on how detailed the system is, some just go by historical data and simple probability formulas.  Some put other factors in play obviously if a team has had an easy schedule and a rough patch is coming up it will vary the results.

That kind of gets into the Econ stats stuff and the differences between probability and odds.  For a simple example you can flip a coin and you can get a head or tail but what are the chances of getting 10 or 50 or whatever heads in a row?   Same with lottery numbers any number can come out on any random drawing but what about drawing the number 111 five times in a row?

Boring stuff eh?

[dawg2fan]

On 10/17/2019 at 2:16 PM, jiggins7919 said:

6-10

We're undisciplined, we turn the ball over, we don't throw TD passes, we don't score DEFENSIVE TDs, and we don't make the plays when they matter the most.  That's the biggest thing, right there.  When we need to make something happen, when the game is ON THE LINE...we choke.  Basically, this team has absolutely NO MAGIC.  Zip, zilch, nada, nil.  Let me ask you, how many people on this board felt like we were going to go down the field and score against the Seahawks to win the game?  I think it's a safe bet that not many of us thought we were just going to march down the field and win.  That right there...that expectation that something great is going to happen...THAT'S what is missing from our team.  We still expect to step on our Johnson, and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  We HOPE someone on the team will make a play instead of EXPECTING to make the play.

NOW...if "something" changes?  If we find the "magic"?  I'm telling you, we're a play or two away from winning some games, and I know that most teams in the NFL can say that, but you have to figure our big names are going to start making big plays.  Garrett gets a strip-sack that's returned for a TD.  OBJ one-handed grab for 7.  Chubb breaking loose, Greedy pick-6...whatever.   We start making those 2-3 great plays a game, and we can be something.  We can win the division, but we have to stop beating ourselves and start stringing together wins.  Now. 

Exactly what he said.  And by the way, the way we're going, don't be surprised if we split with the Bengals.  

[dawg2fan]

On 10/18/2019 at 9:12 PM, gumby73 said:

3-4 … Steal this game vs. the Patriots. Get Ward, Greedy and Higgins back. L, if Greedy & Ward are free to play man on man? we got to score 20'ish & stop RB dinks? Wilkes only plays zone.  ☹️

4-4 … Beat the Broncos for all those years ago. They aren't as good as us. W

5-4 … Get Hunt back. Run the ball down the Bills throat. L, best defense we play left on schedule..and it's not going well.  I'd love to see this, but you never know what you'll get with Kitchens.

6-4 … Win another division game here vs. the Stealers. W  Wish i could agree with this one.

7-4 … Get Njoku back and make the Dolphins call in the rest of the season. W

8-4 … Stealers, remember us? Do it again. L????

9-4 … 10-4 … The Bungles and the Cardinals get it too... W/W

11-4 … Best the Ravens again for the division. W

12-4 … Bengals are still recovering from the last beating. W  Split here  (L). 

12-4 Anything less is giving up. 

 

7-3 is realistic of what's left?... Can we beat Pitt in Pitt? Heck... we got to have it... 9-7 maybe 10-6..Chubb & Hunt must move the chains & the 2nd & 20's has got to stop 🛑 

Unless we get some help on the OLine, I can't see more than 6 total wins.  Baker's got happy feet and throws his passes offline.  My confidence in Kitchens is slowly dwindling.  

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, mjp28 said:

That depends on how detailed the system is, some just go by historical data and simple probability formulas.  Some put other factors in play obviously if a team has had an easy schedule and a rough patch is coming up it will vary the results.

That kind of gets into the Econ stats stuff and the differences between probability and odds.  For a simple example you can flip a coin and you can get a head or tail but what are the chances of getting 10 or 50 or whatever heads in a row?   Same with lottery numbers any number can come out on any random drawing but what about drawing the number 111 five times in a row?

Boring stuff eh?

You finally hit the nail on the head of something.

[mjp28]

1 minute ago, The Gipper said:

You finally hit the nail on the head of something.

Yes strange isn't it I've always liked Economics and Finance but hate Accounting (bean counting), Marketing is just crystal ball stuff and so it goes. I've always done very well in Management and enjoyed Business Law and Labor Legislation -but- always excelled in math, science along with history.  

Whatever you like I guess.

[The Gipper]

1 minute ago, mjp28 said:

Yes strange isn't it I've always liked Economics and Finance but hate Accounting (bean counting), Marketing is just crystal ball stuff and so it goes. I've always done very well in Management and enjoyed Business Law and Labor Legislation -but- always excelled in math, science along with history.  

Whatever you like I guess.

What I would like is for you to answer the question:   with all your gambling sources,  is there one that has set the odds on the rest of the Browns games for this season.  If there are none that do that, then just say so. No need to tap dance around it. 

[jiggins7919]

On 10/18/2019 at 8:44 PM, Dutch Oven said:

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that if the Browns lose vs the Pats next Sunday, they will go 8-8 at best. 

They'd have to go 6-3 the rest of the way to finish .500. 

That's just it. We're not beating the Bills, the Steelers twice, the Bengals twice (maybe), and even the Cardinals are better offensively. How does our QB have 5 td passes? And he's not likely to get more Sunday. Nobody has. 

[Dutch Oven]

19 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

That's just it. We're not beating the Bills, the Steelers twice, the Bengals twice (maybe), and even the Cardinals are better offensively. How does our QB have 5 td passes? And he's not likely to get more Sunday. Nobody has. 

And I get that the first seven games were rough, but it isn't the record that concerns me (and you apparently), it is the way they've played. Nothing they've shown me in the first six games has led me to believe this is a team capable of going 7-2 or better over the last nine games. Hell, I think 6-3 is a big stretch.

UNLESS they come out like a team reinvented Sunday. A team that looks drastically different than what we've seen so far. 

[jiggins7919]

8 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

UNLESS they come out like a team reinvented Sunday. A team that looks drastically different than what we've seen so far. 

And I want this so much! I'm honestly not being negative, I'm really just saying that we've haven't played very well for most of the season, and if that doesn't change, we're GOING to lose a lot more games. 

That being said, we started playing better after the bye last year. Granted we also had a drastic coaching change, but bare with me. We're healthier now, we played good enough to beat a top 3 team last game, and we play well on the road for the most part. Do I EXPECT to win? Not anymore, not after watching the Patriots defense against the Jets and watching the entire game. I mean, they looked GREAT. 

Now, I will say that Darnold also missed throws. The 4th down in the red zone comes to mind. Guy was open, he had enough time, he missed the throw. That could've lead to a touchdown. He had two OTHER red zone INTs AND he had an awful fumble. The point is, Darnold had chances. WE will have chances, but we HAVE to hit them because they won't come often. Baker has that ability, and if our defense can somehow force FG's, get turnovers, AND finally get us a score...we can win. 

I just wouldn't bet on it! 😂

[mjp28]

11 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

 

UNLESS they come out like a team reinvented Sunday. A team that looks drastically different than what we've seen so far. 

How did this team go 7-8-1 last year?   I thought they were supposed to be better and more explosive this year.

And yes everyone has injuries but last year it seems like they fought to compete and we're so close to a .500+ season with a rookie quarterback.

Now after a bye they get to prove something on the road against you know who.

GO BROWNS, it's put up or shut up time.

[jiggins7919]

11 hours ago, mjp28 said:

How did this team go 7-8-1 last year?   I thought they were supposed to be better and more explosive this year.

This is the question that nobody can answer. People point fingers at the offensive line, but we've got everyone back except for Zeitler. While he's a stud, his absence should not cause a total fallout. Also, we added OBJ and had Landry still. Regardless of how much timing everyone nailed down, the offense should still function close to last year. The INTs should not be up 1000%, the red zone passing should not be abysmal, and Baker should have way more than 5 td passes. Furthermore, he should have WAY more than one td pass to a freaking WR! 

Turn it around against the best team. Man that'd be a blast! 

[mjp28]

When I ran this poll earlier the was maybe a bit more of an optimistic look at the season.....every loss does diminish that.  The 9 or 10 wins was the majority.

 

[Dutch Oven]

On 10/31/2019 at 10:46 AM, mjp28 said:

When I ran this poll earlier the was maybe a bit more of an optimistic look at the season.....every loss does diminish that.  The 9 or 10 wins was the majority.

 

The results of my questions could be hilarious at this pace. 

[gumby73]

55 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

The results of my questions could be hilarious at this pace. 

It's easy..am the hyperbole sucker..predicted 12-4.. did i win the car? but i did us all a solid.. waived my rights to revised voting.. 🤓

[jiggins7919]

The sobering aspect of our season is that if we keep turning it over and committing ridiculous penalties, we're not really capable of beating ANYONE. The problem is, we've played 7 games now, so penalties and turnovers MIGHT just be who we are, ya know? 7 games isn't just a flash in the pan. 

I'm betting on us turning it around and picking up some steam. I see us winning decisively Sunday, then finally winning a home game against the Bills in a very ugly game.

A lot of fans are more nervous than excited about the upcoming game because if we lose, it will get very ugly in Cleveland. The season will effectively be over, there might be personnel changes, and we'll go back to discussing the draft. 

But we're going to win, despite how bad we've been, despite the weird crap that happens, and regardless of how we've turned it over so much previously...it's go time now. Everyone is angry and tired of answering dumb questions. Only way to stop that is to win. 

[TexasAg1969]

The football Gods have aligned the stars for a win in Denver! 🧐

Or the perfect Lucy football pull on the Charlie Browns once again!😂

[mjp28]

16 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

The results of my questions could be hilarious at this pace. 

Could be?  

[mjp28]

Hmmmmm even these numbers are looking up a bit. Five wins is in with five games to go.

[mjp28]

Way back in October when things looked kind of glum most here still picked 9/10 or an 8 win season.

Now in December at 6-7 some of those numbers are still possible.

(the above 10 and below 6 picks are however history)