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The Gipper

If the Playoffs started today, after week 4

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This is something I usually start up at the quarter pole, and carry it on throughout the season:    If the Playoffs started today, the following would be in:

AFCE  Patriots  4-0

AFCS Texans 2-2  (better conference record)

AFCN  Browns 2-2  (better division record/head to head vs. Ravens)

AFCW  Chiefs  4-0

Wildcards  Bills  3-1  Raiders/Chargers  (better conf. records

NFCE   Cowboys 3-1

NFCS Saints  3-1

NFCN  Packers 3-1   better division record

NFCW  49ers  3-0

WCs:   Bears and Rams  3-1

"Race for the #1 overall pick:    Miami, Cincinnati,  Denver, Washington   each 0-4   Cardinals  0-3-1

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But they don't start yet.   :huh:

(Oh you're looking into the future, I get it now. :lol:)

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14 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

But they don't start yet.   :huh:

(Oh you're looking into the future, I get it now. :lol:)

Where have you been on this board for the last 20 years?  Its just a snapshot in time.

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4 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Where have you been on this board for the last 20 years?  Its just a snapshot in time.

Not here for the first 16 years and 2 months that's for sure. 

A snapshot in time which states if the playoffs started today, but they don't. Hmmmmm that is interesting.

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10 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Not here for the first 16 years and 2 months that's for sure. 

A snapshot in time which states if the playoffs started today, but they don't. Hmmmmm that is interesting.

It is better to look at things that way than to look at bogus "power rankings"   The standing ARE the power rankings that count.

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21 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

It is better to look at things that way than to look at bogus "power rankings"   The standing ARE the power rankings that count.

These are amazingly accurate at setting weekly lines the professional oddsmakers use them all the time as an analytical tool......and they have millions on the line.

Screenshot_2019-10-01_154641.jpg

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52 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

It is better to look at things that way than to look at bogus "power rankings"   The standing ARE the power rankings that count.

I've always said the power rankings are the weekly beauty contest, subject to change by a big win or loss. FWIW, the Browns at 2-2 are probably right where they should be in the middle of the pack at #14 or so. Beat the 49ers, and I'll bet we move up to #10. ESPN currently gives them a 59% chance of making the playoffs. OTOH, they have the Dolphins at <1% actually that's about zero.  

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17 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I've always said the power rankings are the weekly beauty contest, subject to change by a big win or loss. FWIW, the Browns at 2-2 are probably right where they should be in the middle of the pack at #14 or so. Beat the 49ers, and I'll bet we move up to #10. ESPN currently gives them a 59% chance of making the playoffs. OTOH, they have the Dolphins at <1% actually that's about zero.  

Yes the power rankings are basically a team's strengths and weaknesses, strength of schedule, W/L record, injuries and other somewhat quantifiable data and almost run out as a spreadsheet and converted into a number to compare teams.

Lines are then set with the input of the main sportsbook guy who can tweak it a bit with his own gut feel if he wants.

Then the bettors take over and bet their paychecks on who they like, the sportsbooks then adjust accordingly to try to get even betting 50/50 on each side so they never lose money..... theoretically. They also DO talk to each other and call off if they need to. (same as local books).

It's pretty simple really.  

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28 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Yes the power rankings are basically a team's strengths and weaknesses, strength of schedule, W/L record, injuries and other somewhat quantifiable data and almost run out as a spreadsheet and converted into a number to compare teams.

Lines are then set with the input of the main sportsbook guy who can tweak it a bit with his own gut feel if he wants.

Then the bettors take over and bet their paychecks on who they like, the sportsbooks then adjust accordingly to try to get even betting 50/50 on each side so they never lose money..... theoretically. They also DO talk to each other and call off if they need to. (same as local books).

It's pretty simple really.  

I did like ESPN's take on the Browns best way to make the playoffs- "survive the next three games." According to them 3-4 is doable, as after that, seven of the teams remaining on the schedule haven't won a game yet. (and the Steelers have only won once)   

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3 hours ago, hoorta said:

I did like ESPN's take on the Browns best way to make the playoffs- "survive the next three games." According to them 3-4 is doable, as after that, seven of the teams remaining on the schedule haven't won a game yet. (and the Steelers have only won once)   

I'll be happy with the Browns being 4-4 at the halfway mark. 

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7 hours ago, mjp28 said:

Yes the power rankings are basically a team's strengths and weaknesses, strength of schedule, W/L record, injuries and other somewhat quantifiable data and almost run out as a spreadsheet and converted into a number to compare teams.

Lines are then set with the input of the main sportsbook guy who can tweak it a bit with his own gut feel if he wants.

Then the bettors take over and bet their paychecks on who they like, the sportsbooks then adjust accordingly to try to get even betting 50/50 on each side so they never lose money..... theoretically. They also DO talk to each other and call off if they need to. (same as local books).

It's pretty simple really.  

Why does everything come down to the betting situation with you who gives a shit about bettors   the power rankings have nothing to do with bettors they’re just worthless. 

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11 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Why does everything come down to the betting situation with you who gives a shit about bettors   the power rankings have nothing to do with bettors they’re just worthless. 

It also comes down to the games themselves and general discussions on who might win or fantasy leagues, pick ems, survival football and so much more.......that you NEVER seem to participate in but that's your choice. If you're not interested in pointspreads and that sort of thing fine don't read them. If you're not interested in any betting fine even though it is now legal in all 50 states same as the lottery or BINGO.

SO how about this "Lighten up Francis".   :lol:

And have a nice day.  :)

........oh and I almost never bet anymore but I do play the Ohio Lottery which helps our schools.

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1 hour ago, mjp28 said:

It also comes down to the games themselves and general discussions on who might win or fantasy leagues, pick ems, survival football and so much more.......that you NEVER seem to participate in but that's your choice. If you're not interested in pointspreads and that sort of thing fine don't read them. If you're not interested in any betting fine even though it is now legal in all 50 states same as the lottery or BINGO.

SO how about this "Lighten up Francis".   :lol:

And have a nice day.  :)

........oh and I almost never bet anymore but I do play the Ohio Lottery which helps our schools.

Well...how about you keep your betting fetish on your own 100 threads that you start about them.  I have discussed betting issues on many of your threads, but can we have some that don't involve that?  As for those other things:  fantasy football, bores me. Pick em....I retired from that undefeated.  Survival...I would be interested in that, it does intrigue me....but there would be times where I would probably forget to do it and miss making  pick, so that is why I haven't participated there. I may consider it next year. 

My point is, I prefer to just watch football and not get caught up with all that other stuff.    And also:   the standings IS the only important thing about the game and the teams that play it.  It is about winning and losing and making the playoffs.  Anything else is just detritus.

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17 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

 

My point is, I prefer to just watch football and not get caught up with all that other stuff.    And also:   the standings IS the only important thing about the game and the teams that play it.  It is about winning and losing and making the playoffs.  Anything else is just detritus.

Good for you I'm so glad that you enjoy watching football.

Now let the rest of us enjoy what we like here on The BROWNS BOARD and all the other related forums without all of the righteous condemnations of our likes and opinions.

After all it is is a sports board where everyone has their own thoughts, ideas and opinions I'm sure as a part time judge you can understand and appreciate that.

OK Gip?    ;)

(No hard feeling right.....oh and that crack about a betting fetish, OMG I enjoy it but fetish.   :lol:.   Poor choice of words there Gip and I've told you before that I think that you are an excellent wordsmith I think you can do better than that.)

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3 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Good for you I'm so glad that you enjoy watching football.

Now let the rest of us enjoy what we like here on The BROWNS BOARD and all the other related forums without all of the righteous condemnations of our likes and opinions.

After all it is is a sports board where everyone has their own thoughts, ideas and opinions I'm sure as a part time judge you can understand and appreciate that.

OK Gip?    ;)

(no hard feeling right)

I have no problems with you doing the odds\probabilities- as long as the thread is clearly started as such. Gipper has his trivia fetish FWIW.  

I'll say this- if it doesn't interest you- just skip over it. 

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2 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I have no problems with you doing the odds\probabilities- as long as the thread is clearly started as such. Gipper has his trivia fetish FWIW.  

I'll say this- if it doesn't interest you- just skip over it. 

No problem.  :)

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47 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Good for you I'm so glad that you enjoy watching football.

Now let the rest of us enjoy what we like here on The BROWNS BOARD and all the other related forums without all of the righteous condemnations of our likes and opinions.

After all it is is a sports board where everyone has their own thoughts, ideas and opinions I'm sure as a part time judge you can understand and appreciate that.

OK Gip?    ;)

(No hard feeling right.....oh and that crack about a betting fetish, OMG I enjoy it but fetish.   :lol:.   Poor choice of words there Gip and I've told you before that I think that you are an excellent wordsmith I think you can do better than that.)

Practice what you preach.   You are giving righteous condemnation about me not liking to do the shite you like to do, like fantasy football etc. And I have never denied you the right to talk about the things you want to talk about.  Like I said, I have even participated in your innumerable betting threads.   I am only saying, how about refraining from hijacking with that stuff?   Can we give it a rest in a thread dealing with the actualities of what teams deal with:   the standings that lead to a determination of whether or not a team makes the playoffs.  Like I said, that IS what counts in this league:  Win/Loss record.  Division and Conference records. Head to head records.  No power rating, or point spread has ever lead a team into the playoffs...or not.   Winning and losing does that. The tie breaking formula does that.   

And OK, you don't like the word fetish....what word would you come up with? 

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It's painfully obvious retirement has been treating Gipper well. 

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1 hour ago, Dutch Oven said:

It's painfully obvious retirement has been treating Gipper well. 

I am not retired.  I was in court this morning on a Probate matter, and again this afternoon, handling traffic court.  ( I just moved my office to my home).

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1 hour ago, Dutch Oven said:

It's painfully obvious retirement has been treating Gipper well. 

"Old lawyers never die, they just fade away".:.........

.......OK I did borrow it a bit from General MacArthur.

Most lawyers I know keep puttering around the courthouse for many years.

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1 hour ago, mjp28 said:

"Old lawyers never die, they just fade away".:.........

.......OK I did borrow it a bit from General MacArthur.

Most lawyers I know keep puttering around the courthouse for many years.

Possibly true.  Many I know have done so as well.   Not sure if that will be me.  Depends perhaps if I ultimately decide to retire out of state...then I wouldn't of course.  But, if I stay here, I may. 

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On 10/1/2019 at 8:34 PM, Dutch Oven said:

I'll be happy with the Browns being 4-4 at the halfway mark. 

Another key moment in the BROWNS 2019 season when they were 2-2 and (mathematically) in the AFCN lead.

And they never hit 4-4.

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