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mjp28

BROWNS ODDS MAKING PLAYOFFS with *5-7 start (*revised 12-2) at 4.8%...better luck next year..

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9 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Since I can see quotes... even of the Ignored...

Gip,

While provisos creep into many of your "opinions" as well... "Fair to say?"... they are always a part of your assessments and predictions, e.g. "I like so and so. He could end up being the best QB in the draft." That's an example we see every year... and it's a feature of every player "evaluation" you make. It's your substitute for knowledge of how the game is played and putting in the time to actually have a basis for your "assessment".

 

Well, if you think that is the case....every opinion, every evaluation, nearly every comment ever made on here that is not a discernible statement of fact carries with it a proviso.....including every single opinion you have ever stated.  You have no better clue how a particular player may ultimately end up than I do even if you perhaps have more Xs and Os knowledge than I do.  I just don't track your opinions on such matters as you apparently track mine. 

And my knowledge of how the game is played is sufficient to have an opinion on some things.  And I am right on many of my opinions, and I am wrong on some....just like you.  

But, following a particular directive,  you see.....I don't care if you are right or wrong on your opinions.  You can be right...or you can be wrong. 

Ca ne fait rien

Fair to say? 

:P

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BROWNS CHANCES TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AFTER GAME 5 AT 2-3 DROP, NATURALLY BUT STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.

As you might imagine the BROWNS chances to make the playoffs took a dip and Baltimore jumped back up on the 3-2 vs 2-3 records -but- it's early and the BROWNS do have the head to head win over the blackbirds.

However the game vs Seattle now becomes a must win before the week 7 bye week and the big 4:25 pm week 8 matchup with New England!

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 3-2 10.8% 9.3 3.1% 12.4% 21.5% 24.7% 3.3% 4.9% 61.7% 15.5% 8.2% 69.9% 16.8%
CLE 2-3 -7.5% 7.5 0.4% 2.9% 6.9% 13.1% 3.4% 5.8% 23.3% 3.3% 9.1% 32.4% -23.7%
PIT 1-4 -1.2% 7.1 0.0% 1.6% 4.5% 8.1% 3.3% 6.0% 14.2% 1.6% 9.4% 23.6% -2.4%
CIN 0-5 -26.6% 3.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% -0.1

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And let's look ahead a bit, not an easy schedule for the BROWNS right now.......

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
1. NE 78.7% 57.7% 37.3% 5.7% <--- our week 8 opponent
2. SF 49.0% 31.1% 15.4% 1.0%
KC 43.1% 17.7% 9.2% 0.0%
NO 31.7% 14.6% 5.6% 0.0%
PHI 23.1% 11.6% 5.1% 0.0%
6. BAL 20.8% 7.6% 3.8% 0.0% <--- they beat them!
GB 19.9% 9.1% 3.5% 0.0%
8. SEA 15.6% 7.7% 3.2% 0.0% <--- our next opponent
DAL 16.5% 7.6% 3.2% 0.0%
HOU 15.8% 5.5% 2.5% 0.0%
DET 10.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.0%
LAR 8.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.0%
MIN 9.1% 3.9% 1.6% 0.0%
CHI 7.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0%
BUF 6.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0%
CAR 5.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0%
OAK 6.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%
LAC 4.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
IND 6.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%
JAX 5.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
21. CLE 4.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% <--- just above pit
PIT 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
TEN 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
TB 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

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And to show how skewed things can be plus how much your division's strengths and weaknesses play into your record just look.  For example NE has a 99% chance of making the playoffs after WEEK 5!    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 5-0 37.9% 13.4 77.9% 12.8% 3.4% 1.0% 3.9% 0.7% 95.0% 90.7% 4.7% 99.7% 0.7%
BUF 4-1 -5.4% 9.8 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 48.5% 16.9% 5.0% 4.4% 65.4% 70.4% 21.7%
NYJ 0-4 -19.1% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% -5.6%
MIA 0-4 -57.0% 2.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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Well the update through WEEK 6 looks like the Browns chances have dropped to about 7 wins and a 22.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Or our next opponent NE, looks like poor 4-1 Buffalo is getting little respect except for a wild card.

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 4-2 10.2% 9.4 3.1% 16.0% 20.0% 26.5% 2.8% 4.5% 65.6% 19.2% 7.3% 72.9% 3.1%
PIT 2-4 -0.3% 7.7 0.1% 3.6% 6.8% 9.1% 5.5% 8.7% 19.6% 3.7% 14.2% 33.7% 10.2%
CLE 2-4 -10.0% 6.9 0.1% 1.6% 4.1% 8.7% 2.7% 5.2% 14.5% 1.7% 7.8% 22.4% -10.0%
CIN 0-6 -26.8% 3.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% -0.6%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 6-0 40.6% 13.5 83.2% 9.5% 2.8% 0.7% 3.3% 0.4% 96.1% 92.6% 3.7% 99.8% 0.2%
BUF 4-1 -5.8% 9.6 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 47.5% 17.0% 3.8% 3.4% 64.4% 68.2% -2.2%
NYJ 1-4 0.2% (adj.) 7.4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 18.2% 18.3% 15.2%
MIA 0-5 -59.3% 1.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

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Oh and the look ahead partial playoff scenario. Yes the Browns have dropped to the bottom of the barrel.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
1.NE 81.8% 62.3% 41.3% 6.4%
SF 48.9% 30.2% 13.9% 1.1%
KC 35.3% 14.0% 7.6% 0.0%
NO 37.4% 17.5% 6.5% 0.0%
GB 26.5% 12.9% 5.0% 0.0%
SEA 18.3% 9.0% 3.6% 0.0%
HOU 23.9% 7.5% 3.4% 0.0%
8.BAL 22.1% 7.0% 3.3% 0.0%

 

 

23. CLE   2.4%   0.5%   0.2%   0.0%      

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Well BROWNS fans everywhere this thing that I started before the season began has proven to be quite accurate.  The BROWNS are now down to an 8.7% chance to make ANY playoff spot and 6.2% of that as a wild card and 2.6% chance to win a division championship and a minute 0.1% chance of getting a BYE week. :lol:.

So much about the BROWNS being the new AFCN powerhouse and dominating for years.

So much for statistics and analytics now it's about draft positions and WHO the BROWNS need to improve.......in 2020. Sounds like forever, right?

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 6-2 16.7% 11.0 13.5% 28.7% 23.1% 22.8% 2.6% 2.6% 88.0% 42.1% 5.2% 93.2% 8.7%
PIT 4-4 -3.1% 8.2 0.1% 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 13.1% 14.7% 9.5% 2.5% 27.9% 37.3% 8.6%
CLE 2-6 -9.2% 6.5 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.9% 2.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 6.2% 8.7% -14.3%
CIN 0-8 -34.8% 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

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I was still hopeful even at 2-5 we could make the playoffs but after losing to Denver reality has set in. The odds now are too great against us this year. If we were going to make a run at the playoffs it had to start with beating a 2-5 Denver.

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1 hour ago, flyingfooldoug said:

Two weeks ago we were drafting number 11.  We’ve moved up to 7 already. The math is way better to snag the number one draft pick than it is to get a playoff spot. 

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   :(

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

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8 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Oh God we're in a race with Cincinnati to see who gets a better draft pick.   :(

The opportunity for a bottom 5 or 8 draft pick has now slipped away with the good teams, better luck next year, come again.

Haven't we played this game before...................for years.

And it has nothing to do with being a good or great die hard BROWNS fan.  We're all BROWNS fans or we wouldn't be here at all and I expect our numbers will dwindle again over the winter unless the BROWNS pull together for some fantastic finish for that elusive 15th draft pick, lol.   

Maybe losing is like medicine and you have to take it to get better I don't know except that I've had plenty of both over the past five years.

GO BROWNS, just win baby!  Winning can cure some ails that nothing else can........ period.

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

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5 minutes ago, flyingfooldoug said:

Spot on dude. And forgive me but I just don’t see successful NFL head coach in Fred’s future. 

High school is always nice.

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In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4  #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9%  53.1% -24.5%
*CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% *43.4% 8.7% 12.7% *56.1% 21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9%  15.3%
CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3%

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3 hours ago, mjp28 said:

In case you forgot and we're wondering the high point of the season and CLE had an edge over BAL at winning the division.  No wonder we were all so giddy.

What a difference a big win makes!

AFC North....after the win at Baltimore

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4  #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 2-2 10.8% 8.9 2.2% 6.5% 15.5% 15.0% 6.5% 7.4% 39.2% 8.7% 13.9%  53.1% -24.5%
*CLE 2-2 2.9% 8.8 2.1% 6.6% 15.0% 19.7% 5.3% 7.3% *43.4% 8.7% 12.7% *56.1% 21.9% yeah baby we could taste it, now it just tastes like $&\¥
PIT 1-3 -3.4% 7.3 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 8.4% 3.6% 5.8% 16.6% 2.1% 9.3% 25.9%  15.3%
CIN 0-4 -28.9% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% -3.3%

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Here's the updated odds after the win over Buffalo and going to 3-6 and a 10.1% shot at the playoffs, we will see what 4-6 looks like after this weekend is completed.

AFC North

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 7-2 23.8% 11.6 23.6% 40.7% 16.4% 9.8% 4.1% 2.2% 90.5% 64.3% 6.3% 96.8% 3.7%
PIT 5-4 -0.5% 8.8 0.1% 4.0% 2.7% 1.4% 25.9% 18.1% 8.2% 4.2% 44.0% 52.2% 14.2%
CLE 3-6 -11.5% 6.8 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 3.5% 5.4% 1.3% 0.2% 8.9% 10.1% <--- 1/10 right now 1.6%
CIN 0-9 -42.4% 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% on the clock?0.0% -0.0%

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And here it is at 4-6 and the task ahead is simple (not really) keep winning and hope for a wild card for any shot at the playoffs.

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 8-2 33.5% 12.3 27.0% 53.5% 14.3% 3.4% 0.6% 0.5% 98.3% 80.6% 1.2% 99.4% 2.7%
PIT 5-5 -4.7% 7.9 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1% 13.4% 1.0% 0.4% 26.5% 27.5% -24.7%
CLE * 4-6 -4.7% 7.4 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 7.1% 10.3% 0.7% 0.2% * 17.4% * 18.1% * up 8.0%
CIN 0-10 -37.1% 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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Definitely the time (of course, on top of winning) to root for those wonky losses for teams ahead. Bengals v Steelers, Jets v Raiders, etc. Even one of those teams taking a "bad loss" makes the odds better.

Just wish we had that damn Denver game back-only one that really sticks in my craw. 5-5 with that win, and the schedule we have would be sitting pretty strong.

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1 minute ago, jrb12711 said:

 

Just wish we had that damn Denver game back-only one that really sticks in my craw. 5-5 with that win, and the schedule we have would be sitting pretty strong.

Yeah when you miss a layup or 2' putt you don't get those back..... especially when they are up the numbers at the end of the game.

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The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

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On 11/20/2019 at 9:19 AM, LBC mike said:

The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

Yep... basically took any excitement I had left out of the season. Outside of coming on this site, I’ve turned everything off Browns related except games... I will say, not listening to Bull and Fox on my drive home has actually put me in a better mood most days.... those guys really annoy me...

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On 11/20/2019 at 9:19 AM, LBC mike said:

The Denver game was the most disappointing this year.

Remember last season when they finished 7-8-1 and we're at least close to thinking about the playoffs "IF" certain things and overtime games went the other way?

This year it will be games like DEN and others that just slipped away...... unless they can run the table without a certain all pro guy.

GO BROWNS, we have to be the toughest fans in sports !

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We'll see what happens with this after MNF.  Remember the BROWNS were 2-2 at one time with a win over Baltimore, the next game is very pivotal for the division and season.

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Well at 5-6 things have turned around from around 10% to about 21.5% with that nice 3 game win streak.  -but-. the next must win game is up with the BROWNS a slight favorite in the Cleveland-Pittsburgh II main event !

The second wild card spot is also getting interesting.

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 10-1 41.4% 14.0 72.3% 25.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 99.7% 97.8% 0.3% √ 100.0% 0.0%
BUF 8-3 0.4% 9.8 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 60.8% 19.8% 0.3% 0.3% √ 80.7% 81.0% √ 22.8%
NYJ 4-7 -0.9% 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
MIA 2-9 -37.3% 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Team

W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 9-2 44.0% 12.8 26.8% 62.7% 8.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% √ 99.5% √ 89.5% 0.4% √ 99.9% 0.4%
PIT 6-5 -3.9% 8.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 12.7% 14.4% 0.4% 0.2% 27.0% 27.4% -0.1%
CLE * 5-6 1.0% 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.8% 13.6% 0.1% 0.0% * 21.4% * 21.5% * 3.4%
CIN 0-11 -33.2% 1.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% x 0.0%

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Well with a 5-7 start the BROWNS have pretty much ended any serious talk about making the 2019 playoffs with a 4.8% chance of getting a wild card spot.

Better luck next year.

AFC North

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 10-2 44.9% 13.1 64.7% 30.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 99.5% 95.1% 0.5% 100.0% 0.1%
PIT 7-5 2.0% 8.7 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 13.1% 26.6% 0.5% 0.2% 39.7% 40.3% 12.8%
CLE * 5-7 2.1% * 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% * 0.3% * 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% * 4.8% 4.8% ** -16.7%
CIN 1-11 -23.2% 2.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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So you're saying.... there's a chance!!!

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1 minute ago, Tour2ma said:

So you're saying.... there's a chance!!!

Tour the eternal optimist.   Yes there actually are two slim and none and slim just left town.

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On 12/2/2019 at 2:08 PM, mjp28 said:

Tour the eternal optimist.   Yes there actually are two slim and none and slim just left town.

In thinking this over for days on end the BROWNS meager 5% mathematical chance to make the playoff might be slightly enhanced by their somewhat easy schedule.

In any case we get to watch one week at a time and find out.  The Cinci game should take them to 6-7 with three games to go. 

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Exactly . They should be 6-7 after Cincinnati and 7-7 after cardinals.

Then comes the Baltimore game. Win and we are 8-7. 

Beat cinci again 9-7 

Realistically we will go 8-8 but Pittsburgh and Tennessee have some tough games.

Pittsburgh can easily go 2-2 or 1-3 in thier final 4 games bringing them to 8-8 or 9-7

Titans have Texans,  Texans, raiders, saints. They just might drop all 4

Colts are 6-6 and probably be 8-8

 

With the tough road the stealers and titans have ....shockingly the browns could go 8-8 and get in. 

If they go 9-7 I think they get in. My gut tells me Tennessee , indi, Oakland and Steelers are all gonna go 8-8

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