WEEK 4 - BROWNS a 5.5 point early underdog the O/U is 46.5 in Balt at 1 pm....now +7

[Orion]

I predict that we lose this game.

But that still keeps us on track for my 9-7 prediction.

[mjp28]

3 hours ago, Orion said:

I predict that we lose this game.

But that still keeps us on track for my 9-7 prediction.

The tricky part is they can't afford to get into a prolonged losing streak due to not having a good scoring machine and have any serious thoughts about the playoffs.

The OL might be their Achilles heel and undermine the lofty expectations for this high power offense.

Must win game against front runner Baltimore?

[CLEVELANDwantsPLAYOFFS]

16 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

It's also historically been another "-able"...

Profitable...

Especially in BLT...

I get it. But I have confidence that this team will bounce back.

This defense is stellar and once the offense wakes up...a lot of people will act like they never doubted.

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, CLEVELANDwantsPLAYOFFS said:

a lot of people will act like they never doubted.

For me it's not a matter of doubting... it's a matter of timing.

I think we'll be a very tough team in the second half of the year as we gel and the schedule is more favorable.

[mjp28]

This is another way of looking at the game from what the books and the betting public are doing.  Since the line moved to +7 betting seems to be going toward Cleveland and the over. The spread is the flat line, money is the odds like -110, +240, etc. whatever there are other rather large tables that show the tick-by-tick line movements and other information mainly for booking houses and serious bettors.

From our friends at http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/

[mjp28]

The money lines on this game and others from.   http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/

[CLEVELANDwantsPLAYOFFS]

2 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

For me it's not a matter of doubting... it's a matter of timing.

I think we'll be a very tough team in the second half of the year as we gel and the schedule is more favorable.

I guess I’m really just hoping. And I sure as hell hope it doesn’t take til the second half of the year. 1-3 is a pretty big hole

[LBC mike]

I hope the browns players are reading when the Ravens are saying.   

[jiggins7919]

22 hours ago, jcam222 said:

I am not all that capable of in depth football analysis. I do however feel like I read people very well. Every bit of mannerism exhibited by Baker right now shows zero confidence and complete defeat. You can see it in his eyes and mannerisms. Scary. 

And that's kind of my main concern. I know it's not very scientific, but something is off and we know all too well what happens to QBs when they lose their mojo. 

[jiggins7919]

19 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

So do I, and I bet so does he. 

Because if he's right long term, oof. 

Are you kidding? I want to be the wrongest dude this side of the equator! I want to be so wrong that we all chuckle at the end of the year while holding the Lombardi trophy and laughing at the absurdity of my comments. I love this team, and I remember the fun we had at the end of the year and the optimism we had for this season. But dang man, something is flat wrong, and they don't traditionally get better against the Ravens. But you know I'll be watching and rooting for us to win! 

[SdBacker80]

4 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

And that's kind of my main concern. I know it's not very scientific, but something is off and we know all too well what happens to QBs when they lose their mojo. 

I wouldn’t say confidence mojo thing.  It’s a film study correction thing.  He’s left a “clean” pocket 12 times - on plays that were not designed rollout plays.  I would say he was one of the better QBs last year at navigating within the pocket and making throws 

[jiggins7919]

Just now, SdBacker80 said:

I wouldn’t say confidence mojo thing.  It’s a film study correction thing.  He’s left a “clean” pocket 12 times - on plays that were not designed rollout plays.  I would say he was one of the better QBs last year at navigating within the pocket and making throws 

No doubt, and no argument from me about last year. I just don't understand why he's missing open targets, not seeing open targets, and why he's leaving the pocket so soon THIS year. And what I really don't understand is why he didn't target OBJ on that last failed series. Makes no sense. 

[SdBacker80]

30 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

No doubt, and no argument from me about last year. I just don't understand why he's missing open targets, not seeing open targets, and why he's leaving the pocket so soon THIS year. And what I really don't understand is why he didn't target OBJ on that last failed series. Makes no sense. 

I think he’s been fairly accurate.  I think all QBs miss some throws in a game.  The fact he isn’t taking the checkdown often and going down the field more than most suggests he’s likely to miss more than usual.  The level of difficulty going further down the field and throwing on the run.  Not as good.  Still He’s made a few of those throws and when he’s set his feet in the pocket he’s been on the money more than he hasn’t.   One of my complaints this year- take the check down and let these great athletes we have make YAC. He’s made some great throws this season.  Tough throws too and he’s missed some open guys sometimes in an attempt to push the ball further down the field.

And the chief concern he’s held onto the ball way way way too long on too many occasions.  Like you said not seeing open targets sometimes. 

If OBJ was one on one during any of those goaline pass attempts he should have made an effort to find him.  I can’t imagine that being the case.  

[jiggins7919]

1 hour ago, SdBacker80 said:

If OBJ was one on one during any of those goaline pass attempts he should have made an effort to find him.  I can’t imagine that being the case.  

It was unfortunately the case several times, with OBJ juking his defender so badly he fell DOWN one play. I speak truth, go find the highlights and watch the last 4 plays. It's mind boggling. He missed OBJ twice, Jarvis another time. Just weird and sad. 

Here's the Jarvis play he missed. Not sure I can post a Twitter feed, but I will try. 

 

[SdBacker80]

18 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

It was unfortunately the case several times, with OBJ juking his defender so badly he fell DOWN one play. I speak truth, go find the highlights and watch the last 4 plays. It's mind boggling. He missed OBJ twice, Jarvis another time. Just weird and sad. 

I was too busy yelling at my TV when they went empty backfield.

i was thinking after first dow well that’s okay nick Chubb gets it on 2nd.  Same thing on the next play he’ll get a third down carry.

[jiggins7919]

20 minutes ago, SdBacker80 said:

I was too busy yelling at my TV when they went empty backfield.

i was thinking after first dow well that’s okay nick Chubb gets it on 2nd.  Same thing on the next play he’ll get a third down carry.

OMG, ME TOO! 

Even if you don't run it, which I honestly wouldn't have had a problem with all FOUR plays being a run, you at least have to make them THINK it might be a run, right?! AHHHHHH! 😂 

We all know hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but geez. We had a decent amount of success running the ball, right? So why not line up and run it at them 4 straight times. 4 plays, 5 yards, let's see who wins. That's slightly nuts I know, but I'd rather THAT than 4 straight empty set plays. How about a QB draw on first down? That effing PLAY ALWAYS works against us, Lmao. 

[Orion]

6 hours ago, mjp28 said:

The tricky part is they can't afford to get into a prolonged losing streak due to not having a good scoring machine and have any serious thoughts about the playoffs.  We just have to beat who we're supposed to be able to beat.  The Titans loss was predictable.  They're an experienced team.  We had all kinds of newness going on. - Did we expect to beat the reigning NFC Champs?  It doesn't matter that we had a chance to....did we really expect a win against the Rams?

The OL might be their Achilles heel and undermine the lofty expectations for this high power offense.  Yeah, it was a lot of the demise of game one.  It's been a worry since the Zeitler trade because Corbett hadn't showed any real ability.  And still hasn't.  But the guys Freddie selected as starters really haven't had much playing time together (Mother Hubbard got injured and Robinson kicked himself out of a game).  Perhaps they'll gel a bit as time goes on.

Must win game against front runner Baltimore?

No.  Not a must win.  On the road against our main division rival (this season anyway).  The must win would be the home game.  The must win would be the Jets, or the Bengals (pretty much both games, home & away)...  MO anyway.

[Tour2ma]

15 hours ago, CLEVELANDwantsPLAYOFFS said:

I guess I’m really just hoping. And I sure as hell hope it doesn’t take til the second half of the year. 1-3 is a pretty big hole

Hang in there, bud... it's going to get worse before it gets better.

15 hours ago, LBC mike said:

I hope the browns players are reading when the Ravens are saying.   

I just started with Earl Thomas'...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001058962/article/earl-thomas-ravens-kind-of-got-tired-of-browns-hype

Have to say I can see his point.

13 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

Even if you don't run it, which I honestly wouldn't have had a problem with all FOUR plays being a run, you at least have to make them THINK it might be a run, right?! 

I was saying, "QB draw"...

14 hours ago, SdBacker80 said:

I think he’s been fairly accurate.  I think all QBs miss some throws in a game.  The fact he isn’t taking the checkdown often and going down the field more than most suggests he’s likely to miss more than usual.

Agree... when Baker sees a target he still hits it more times than not. I still wonder if the big miss to a wide open Landry in a hole in the zone was because Baker saw the center of the hole behind when Landry pulled up. If this is the case then it's on Landry and that Baker saw the hole, and not the WR is actually a positive.

And, yes, all QBs miss throws... and wide open receivers... every game. The better ones simply do so less often.

 

All that said... the gif of Baker throwing over a quick dig to OBJ to target a TE at the endline shows the predetermination of a target... and that's disturbingly not the Baker of 2018.

[mjp28]

What's that old saying about on any given Sunday?  You just saw it now on to WEEK 5.  

[Tour2ma]

13 hours ago, mjp28 said:

What's that old saying about on any given Sunday?  You just saw it now on to WEEK 5.  

Bit more complicated than that, my friend.

A lot of match ups resulted in Favs, who really hadn't played anyone, e.g., da Boys, running into teams who had tougher schedules to start.

Other match ups had some of the above mixed in with teams that WOKE... e.g. Ravens v Us, TB v Rams...

Of more concern to me going forward is what the teams who narrowly escaped told us this weekend vs those they survived, e.g., KC and NE. Is Detroit that good? Did the Pats really need AB to work out for them?

[mjp28]

32 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Bit more complicated than that, my friend.

It can be -but- along comes a team like TB and hangs a half a hundred on a NFC Champ fresh off an exciting road win.  Or that victim goes on the road and has their best game in years.  (trap games? )

The NFL is funny that way......drives me nuts sometimes.