Stay at #49 or trade down

[Orion]

...that's what I see us doing in the draft.  Of course if someone that they absolutely love falls, I could see them moving up a few to a handful of spots to secure the guy...but moving up into round 1 from 49 is VERY costly...even WITH Duke thrown in.  (check a draft value chart) 

We're not missing out on anything by not picking in round 1.  OBJ is our 1st round pick.  That's a good pick.  

Stay Dawggy....stay.

[calfoxwc]

All depends - a switch of picks, wouldn't cost too much towards the bottom third of the first round...or even the top of the second round. But there is serious talent in the second and third rounds, not the huge drop=off like in other years. I'd say they should stay unless a certain player falls.

[Orion]

6 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

wouldn't cost too much towards the bottom third of the first round

I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder.......but I think it costs too much.  To move to #26 would be about 290 draft chart points.   That's a lot...to me.

[PoeticG]

The Jets want to trade out of #3, word is they want to recoup the 2nd rounder from last years deal to trade up to #3...

 

We have a 2nd rounder we could give them but not another first rounder. We could trade our 1st rounder next year, our third and a Duke Johnson for a pick in the teens. Then trade the Jets our 1st and 2nd round picks this year plus a 2nd rounder next year for the #3 overall. Maybe it would take a tweak here or there but we could make it happen. 

 

Here's the reason. The Browns are good at on Offense, no needs here. They are young and just need time. I'm not seeing a need here one way or the other. 

On Defense they are pretty solid as well. Again, young and talented. Imagine Bosa opposite Garrett for the long term or a Star LB. It would make the Defense ELITE> 

If we consider OBJ our first rounder this year we could put an advance payment on Bosa or another blue chip player. How many guys do we really need in this draft and the next. 

Pretty much consider it a bet on ourselves. If we perform like we are all hoping and expecting our first and second rounders next year won't be until late-late picks, think #28 - #32. Maybe we can get one of these early picking teams to sleep on us and consider it the same old Browns and expect a high pick next year. It's a gamble but considering the state of the roster, we need Quality over Quantity for the next couple of seasons.

 

Go for it. 

[Louisville Slugger]

Depends on what teams value Duke Johnson. I think the highest we could possibly trade up is Houston but they would have to be willing to give Duke a high 3rd round value. I think a logical trade would be with Green Bay. They give us late 3rd round value for Duke we give them the 49th and 2 5th. 

[gumby73]

No team in their right or left mind wants to trade out of the top 10 this draft. Missing Game changing talent is the reason they are picking in the top 10, in the first place. A Prime example of "pushing talent down boards" is taking a look at picks 30 (Sony) thru 37(Braden Smith) last season..How would a top NFL LB in Darius Leonard look in brown & orange right now, with still picking Nick Chubb? Sure, thats easy to say now, but yes Dorsey could miss on a few.. I got my eyes on Oakland 👀.Pick #24 or #27. They dumped their player scouts, to discuss trade out options imo..Mayock could call Dorsey's bluff at pick #24? Or working on putting a deal in place at pick #27, pending who's there? Sure the cost is going to suck, b'ut who is there, is what matters to JD.. Myself?, trading up in 2nd & 3rd, values higher, imo..but were not the guys, calling those teams needing talent ahead of us begging them either 🤔 Edit- the wife can't wait to meet up with some phone working friends she's never met in Nashville Friday..Dude's, I might be the lucky guy waiting to rounds 4 or 5 to even see a Cleveland Browns pick 🤣  🍺 🍻 🍺..... 

[Tour2ma]

55 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

(b)ut who is there, is what matters to JD.

Ed Zachery.... Trade charts are guides not absolutes. The value of the talent moves the chart values.

You mention Top Ten talent...

• There are at least 15 positional players in the 2019 Draft worthy of going in the top ten.
• Add that I see only one QB whose potential has earned the right to be in that mix, yet as may as three may go that high.
• Throw in a "WTF?" pick no one, other than the picking team, saw going that high.

And suddenly the 2nd ten are flooded with 8 (or more) "top ten" prospects... and the cascading doesn't stop there.

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, gumby73 said:

No team in their right or left mind wants to trade out of the top 10 this draft. Missing Game changing talent is the reason they are picking in the top 10, in the first place.

Well said - but those first 2 sentences remind us there's always teams like Cleveland used to be up in that top 10 just waiting to screw up whether they keep the pick to go Flunkin with Mike Junkin or trade back for whatever Rent-A-Wrecks we landed. 

As much as the additions of Vernon and Richardson pump me up - I still think our defense is 1 game changing talent away from being something for opponents to fear. It wasn't that long ago the Ratbirds ran a half marathon with the football on our defense; so we need more than just 2 new starters especially considering how frequently we need to replace injured starters at LB and CB. I know Devin White gets all the love at LB; but there's another LBer named Devin from Missedagain that really plays the pass well. The good part of that is I don't think we'd have to trade up quite as high for him as we would for White. I'm going to share highlights of his soph season in 2017 just to showcase the type of instincts he's born with (aside from his elite combine 40 only 1 hundredth of a second off Devin White's).  Dorsey doesn't have to go Mike Ditka and spend the rest of our draft golfing to make this trade IMO. That said, I think it would be worth sending Duke and 2-3 picks elsewhere to make this happen. 

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Flugel

[Kvoethe]

F that trade down...trade up...lets do this now

[Westside Steve]

There should be a very valuable player in the middle of the second round. I wouldn't fuckaround trading down unless we are going to gamble on a Callaway, the super Talent with some off-the-field problems. 

WSS

[gumby73]

39 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

A)Trade charts are guides not absolutes. The value of the talent moves the chart values.

You mention Top Ten talent...

B)There are at least 15 positional players in the 2019 Draft worthy of going in the top ten.

C)Add that I see only one QB whose potential has earned the right to be in that mix, yet as may as three may go that high.

D)Throw in a "WTF?" pick no one, other than the picking team, saw going that high.

A) the last few drafts, The Harvard chart seems more likely to be in favor.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 B.) Agreed..Than i'd agree with dorsey on 1st rd talent left at pick #17..Them some big words till outcome. Bogus if JD goes back up in 1st? stay tuned..                                                                          C) Call this crazy..But I see Ryan Finley growing into best QB value this class. And the Patriots will be the team to know better in round 2 or 3..                                                                                                D) Happens every draft & mostly to high picked Wide Outs..Color me in, as DK Metcalf being that pick. Got Gordo explosion off line, not much after.. 

[Orion]

47 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Trade charts are guides not absolutes. The value of the talent moves the chart values.

...what HE said.

[gumby73]

That's what's great about having some of the best talent evaluators in our FO.. If we are targeting the right position & Simmons?..Does the trade up ammo used to get to Simmons out last passing on Tillery/Dre'Mont Jones/D.Lawrence or Trysten Hill that very well maybe sitting at #49 or #80? not giving up a thing..a falling LB would grab my attention passing Pitt or Bengals..

[The Gipper]

3 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Ed Zachery.... Trade charts are guides not absolutes. The value of the talent moves the chart values.

You mention Top Ten talent...

• There are at least 15 positional players in the 2019 Draft worthy of going in the top ten.
• Add that I see only one QB whose potential has earned the right to be in that mix, yet as may as three may go that high.
• Throw in a "WTF?" pick no one, other than the picking team, saw going that high.

And suddenly the 2nd ten are flooded with 8 (or more) "top ten" prospects... and the cascading doesn't stop there.

QBs will always be somewhat "overdrafted in this day and age.  

[Canton Mike]

4 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Ed Zachery.... Trade charts are guides not absolutes. The value of the talent moves the chart values.

You mention Top Ten talent...

• There are at least 15 positional players in the 2019 Draft worthy of going in the top ten.
• Add that I see only one QB whose potential has earned the right to be in that mix, yet as may as three may go that high.
• Throw in a "WTF?" pick no one, other than the picking team, saw going that high.

And suddenly the 2nd ten are flooded with 8 (or more) "top ten" prospects... and the cascading doesn't stop there.

There ya go, and Dorsey will certainly be looking at those who drop.

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

Mike

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, Canton Mike said:

There ya go, and Dorsey will certainly be looking at those who drop.

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder."

Mike

If I'm Dorsey with White still on the board and the next team up gives me a call, I have an initial offer and a backup already packaged and tailored to that team's needs.

EDIT: And I agree we got our #1 this year already, so I'm ready to trade off next year's to get White now as part of the deal. Just consider it an early Xmas present under the tree.

[7moses7]

Stay at 49 and take a Savage,  Darnell Savage. S.  Maryland 

[jcam222]

Stay at 49 or move up if the right player / value exists. This team is not in need of collecting lower round draft capitol with a trade down. 

[Orion]

2 hours ago, jcam222 said:

Stay at 49 or move up if the right player / value exists. This team is not in need of collecting lower round draft capitol with a trade down. 

...unless, as the draft unfolds, your board is telling you that the players available at 49 aren't much better than those you've got rated in the 60's.

I DO trust JD.....but I just think it's time for the drunken sailor to sober up.

[gumby73]

6 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

 I have an initial offer and a backup already packaged and tailored to that team's needs.

so I'm ready to trade off next year's to get White now as part of the deal. Just consider it an early Xmas present under the tree.

   No debbie downer here, cus White sits on top my board too.1)from what i count, 9 of the top 20 picks have a LB need, starting with Oak/TB at #4/5. 2) It may take a Xmas miracle to get White past 10.Den. 11.Cinn. & 12.GB /yikes imo!.Some help would be if 3 QB's go in top 10 🎅 3) Miami would gladly take our 1st round pick next year, loading up at QB crop next season. Sadly Miami sits at #13 tough. 4) The only dirt path left that i see for White, is the Lions sitting at #8 ahead of White's top suitors. For the same QB, load up reasons next draft.Issue is, Matt Patricia may pack his bags, after Day 1 of draft...Come on Detroit---Hear Me Roar!! 🤭   

[Flugel]

21 hours ago, gumby73 said:

C) Call this crazy..But I see Ryan Finley growing into best QB value this class. And the Patriots will be the team to know better in round 2 or 3..                                                                                           

I posted something very similar about Finley in Tour's thread about his Darkhorse QB; and NE was the team/situation I mentioned as ideal for him. 

That said, I could also see the New Jersey Giants or LA Chargers snagging him some time after round 1.  Gruden has a lot of picks as well to where he land him in a bargain round. But he's never been patient with young inexperienced QBs which is why he did best with Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson (in their mid 30s).

Edited April 21, 2019 by Flugel

[TexasAg1969]

27 minutes ago, Flugel said:

I posted something very similar about Finley in Tour's thread about his Darkhorse QB.

You might want to review his games against Texas A&M & Clemson. A bit less impressive against decent SEC & ACC defenses. Total of 1 DT and 4 ints for those two games and QB ratings of  93.7 and 88.5 respectively. I wasn't sold watching the A&M game live. His team got routed 52-13 by A&M and 41-7 by Clemson. He was held to 139 yds passing by A&M and 156 by Clemson, his two lows for the season.

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, TexasAg1969 said:

You might want to review his games against Texas A&M & Clemson. A bit less impressive against decent SEC & ACC defenses. Total of 1 DT and 4 ints for those two games and QB ratings of  93.7 and 88.5 respectively. I wasn't sold watching the A&M game live. His team got routed 52-13 by A&M and 41-7 by Clemson. He was held to 139 yds passing by A&M and 156 by Clemson, his two lows for the season.

I believe you Aggies and worthy of note.  That said, how did Alabama's QB look against Clemson?  And not to go hindsight 20/20 on you; but just because Texas Tech didn't always compete against much more talented rosters - that didn't have to mean Patrick Mahomes was a bad idea for the NFL team interested in him.  Everybody has a bad day or 2 so it's important to understand whether it's the exception to the rule (and why) or is it the rule?   The context of Ryan Finley as it pertains to this discussion isn't among 1st round QBs - it's about the bargain he offers to the right taker with the right situation.  The same Coach that drafted Donovan McNabb out of SU's Veer Option Offense (after he was Favre's QB Coach) - traded up alongside John Dorsey to select Mahomes.  Right Coach?  Right situation?  You bet!  In his 1st year as a NFL starter, he won with way more frequency than he ever did at Texas Tech... Much better margin of error to work with.  Speaking of that, when Tom Brady got injured Matt Cassell stepped in won 10 or 11 games with an ideal margin or error the right situation blessed him with.

Along with what I saw when Finley was keeping NC State in the same game his Defense never showed up to at Syracuse - below is a partial cut and paste of what I posted in the QB Darkhorse thread. 

Here's Ryan Finley's stats during the 3 years he started for the Wolfpack:

2016  13 G  243-402  60.4 cmp%  3059 yds  7.6 ypa  18 TD  8 INT                                                                                               

2017  13 G  311-478  65.1 cmp%  3514 yds  7.4 ypa  17 TD  6 INT

2018  13 G  326-482  67.4 cmp%  3928 yds  8.1 ypa  25 TD  11 INT

Gotta have?  No.  Steady improvement?  Absolutely.   If this kid goes to the right situation like NE per say, he could learn from another QB who wasn't anyone's dream PRE-draft.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Flugel

[TexasAg1969]

2 hours ago, Flugel said:

Gotta have?  No.  Steady improvement?  Absolutely.   If this kid goes to the right situation like NE per say, he could learn from another QB who wasn't anyone's dream PRE-draft.

Yep, and one of the pickers out there has him going to NE, so there's that.

[Gunz41]

I'm guessing these trade up options are hopes and dreams and not actually thinking they would work.

I don't think any team would have that much love for Duke. Everyone here is thinking he has very little play after Hunt comes back. And every team also knows that, so the Browns are in a negative situation then. And teams also know they can get value late in Draft or undrafted for the position. In fact, I remember all the talk last year about how great Barkley was, most proclaiming the best prospect, but almost everyone didn't want to draft him at #1, and majority not to draft him at #4, because you can get similar production in someone like Chubb. There is a reason why he would be 3rd when Hunt comes back. So to think he would make a big difference in a trade up doesn't make sense.

First the double trade up is crazy, even in a dream. Most think the Browns will be good this upcoming season, so future picks will be low in a round. So to think trading a 3rd this year, Duke, and next year 1st to get a pick in the teens, well what benefit does that do for that team? But let's just say that were to happen miraculously. Lets say that is the 14th pick. What benefit does it do for the Jets to get the 14th, 47th, and next years pick at say 56. Do anybody really think that is even close to equaling this years #3? 

Again there is a reason why future 1st round picks are valued a round lower. Its because of the unknown. 

[ballpeen]

I don't see the point in trading down unless it is for a pick next year.  We still have 7 draft choice.  That is more than the probable number of roster spots that will be open.  

 

Trade up if anything.  I would like to see the 7 picks turn in to maybe 4 drafted players.

[The Gipper]

56 minutes ago, Gunz41 said:

I'm guessing these trade up options are hopes and dreams and not actually thinking they would work.

I don't think any team would have that much love for Duke. Everyone here is thinking he has very little play after Hunt comes back. And every team also knows that, so the Browns are in a negative situation then. And teams also know they can get value late in Draft or undrafted for the position. In fact, I remember all the talk last year about how great Barkley was, most proclaiming the best prospect, but almost everyone didn't want to draft him at #1, and majority not to draft him at #4, because you can get similar production in someone like Chubb. There is a reason why he would be 3rd when Hunt comes back. So to think he would make a big difference in a trade up doesn't make sense.

First the double trade up is crazy, even in a dream. Most think the Browns will be good this upcoming season, so future picks will be low in a round. So to think trading a 3rd this year, Duke, and next year 1st to get a pick in the teens, well what benefit does that do for that team? But let's just say that were to happen miraculously. Lets say that is the 14th pick. What benefit does it do for the Jets to get the 14th, 47th, and next years pick at say 56. Do anybody really think that is even close to equaling this years #3? 

Again there is a reason why future 1st round picks are valued a round lower. Its because of the unknown. 

As far as I am concerned the value in Duke Johnson is NOT  in whatever we can trade him for....but in whatever use can be made of him. He is...to my mind, that prototypical  3rd down back.   A guy you can run the ball with....throw the ball to out of the backfield, and also use in the slot at times.  He can be productive in all those situations.   I am NOT certain that Hunt has all those attributes....and he certainly won't have them for the Browns to use in the first 8 games....and beyond likely.  He seems to me to be more like Chubb than like Duke.

In my view...if we got rid of Duke, then we would have to be in the market to get a guy just like him. So, getting rid of him is counter productive...and if Dorsey does so then I see it as just a case of "he's not my guy"  at play.

[Orion]

5 hours ago, The Gipper said:

He is...to my mind, that prototypical  3rd down back.   A guy you can run the ball with....throw the ball to out of the backfield, and also use in the slot at times.

Duke also blocks decently.   His value is higher to us than to any other team....considering our situation with Hunt.  But I won't be surprised to see him dealt on Friday and we go into the season with Hilliard is our 3rd RB.

[Gunz41]

8 hours ago, The Gipper said:

As far as I am concerned the value in Duke Johnson is NOT  in whatever we can trade him for....but in whatever use can be made of him. He is...to my mind, that prototypical  3rd down back.   A guy you can run the ball with....throw the ball to out of the backfield, and also use in the slot at times.  He can be productive in all those situations.   I am NOT certain that Hunt has all those attributes....and he certainly won't have them for the Browns to use in the first 8 games....and beyond likely.  He seems to me to be more like Chubb than like Duke.

In my view...if we got rid of Duke, then we would have to be in the market to get a guy just like him. So, getting rid of him is counter productive...and if Dorsey does so then I see it as just a case of "he's not my guy"  at play.

I agree, but it seems that most expect him to be dealt, and some seem to value his trade value as a top tier player. I like him as a player, but he doesn't equal what those guys are saying 

[ballpeen]

Hilliard has his spot.  Time to move on.