jiggins7919 Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 Most of you guys probably read this article, but I came across it yesterday and thought it was an incredible explanation in laymen's terms of what is going on with our QB and the sack situation. Let me say that I'm NOT "hating on Baker" or pointing out his deficiencies, as I'm thrilled with the young kid and I believe he can be special. Not "solid", not "pretty good", not "Andy Dalton-ish"...but SPECIAL. For me personally, I was wondering why Baker was taking so many sacks. I don't usually have the "All 22" camera angle, so that makes it somewhat difficult to always know what's going on down the field. Even so, there are times we can see mistakes, either with WR's running wrong routes (Callaway on that OT 3rd down sack....just UGH), or when Baker accidentally misses a potential game-winning, easy long throw (Our first 3rd down in overtime when Baker predetermined he was throwing the short out and the WR on the same sideline was WIDE OPEN). Baker is human, and he's young, but the article linked below delves into some of the problems with Baker himself, and also some mistakes our OL made against the Bucs. Edited to include the article for easier viewing. https://www.cleveland.com/expo/sports/erry-2018/10/eb346567e22413/baker-mayfields-sacks-is-he-ho.html#incart_big-photo CLEVELAND, Ohio -- A hot topic when analyzing the Browns offense is quarterback Baker Mayfield's "time to throw" statistic. The NFL provides fans with what they call "Next-Gen Stats" that aim to provide a closer look at what goes on during NFL games, and one of the best statistics is how long the quarterback is taking between the snap and the time he throws the football. Per Pro Football Focus, the average "time to throw" numbers for the NFL this year are: 2.67s in pocket (which means total time before throw, sack or scramble or when quarterback crosses the line of scrimmage); 2.51 to throw; 3.33 to sack; 5.08 to scramble. On Sunday Mayfield was: 2.89 in the pocket; 2.47 average time to throw; 3.82 time to sack; 6.1 to scramble. Mayfield's numbers for the season are: 2.76 in the pocket; 2.59 average time to throw; 3.39 to sack; 5.48 to scramble. To summarize: Mayfield is getting rid of the ball at about a league-average pace, but his "time to sack" number tells us the sacks are coming later in the dropback. There are reasons for this that we will can break down from Sunday. Whenever you discuss quarterbacks holding onto the football for longer than usual, there are typically a multitude of reasons. What we will aim to do here is break down seven plays with a prolonged "time to throw," and analyze why it happened and who is to blame. The Browns are in "11" personnel (one RB and one TE) here with "bunch trips" to Mayfield's right. Against a Cover-3 look presnap, Mayfield is reading the "sugar-blitz" (two linebackers walked up in the A-gaps) and then working the invert area defender off the snap. If he is pressured up the middle, he has a crossing route available against that blitz. PLAY NO. 1: Third and 8 - Q1, 11:38 You can see the Buccaneers bring three guys through the tackle box on a blitz, paired with an interior stunt, and it gives Mayfield issues. When Mayfield hits the fifth step of his drop, he has to feel Breshad Perriman's (No. 19) crossing route come free and deliver this ball. Here's your still-shot view of the throw window Mayfield can rip when he hits the top of his fifth step. This ball has to come out with anticipation. Instead the Browns take a negative play on the sack. Who is to blame: Mayfield PLAY NO. 2 - First and 10 - Q2, 7:58 The Browns are again in "11" personnel and use a concept/route design that has become popular in the NFL, the "Blaze Out." This calls for your outside receiver selling vertical to post, then putting his inside foot in the ground after two steps on the post and returning to the sideline. It's an excellent double-move concept, and the Browns use it in mirror here as both outside receivers run it. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley pairs the two routes with a middle curl by Jarvis Landry to help with middle pressure, and/or a blitz. The Browns get the look they want, as all three second-level defenders bite on the run action off the snap. The problem here is how long Mayfield gets caught up and locked onto his left side "Blaze Out," and he misses Landry's curl open in front of his face. In play-action, the drops of the linebackers or nickelback will tell you where to go with the ball. Here, Mayfield will have Buccaneers nickle M.J. Stewart (No. 36) drop into the play-side "Blaze Out" window, and he stays on the route too long. At the top of his drop, Mayfield has to see this to his play-side and work his eyes back to his next answer over the middle of the field. If his timing is better here, this ball should be out for an easy completion. It doesn't help that J.C. Tretter mishandles a twist stunt and allows pressure to arrive in Mayfield's lap, but the ball has to be out off Landry's break. Who is to blame: Mayfield PLAY NO. 3 - First and 25 - Q2, 6:37 A face-mask penalty on Kevin Zeitler made the Browns' first down come from distance. The Browns are again in "11" personnel with trips to the field and a "Nub" tight end to the boundary (short side). They run a post/wheel to the field side, combined with a divide by the No. 3 receiver (Landry), and a long drag from the releasing running back. Haley hoped the catch the Buccaneers' deep coverage in confusion with the post/wheel, as the play-side safety is the read. Sometimes coverage wins, and on this one that is the case. You'll see the backside safety take away the divide by Landry, and the play-side safety play impeccable coverage, initially taking away the skinny post, only to work to helping vertically with the wheel. Here's your still-shot view of the top of Mayfield's drop. The coverage has leverage in each of the five routes, and Mayfield does a nice job escaping the pressure to run for a positive gain. Who is to blame: Nobody, coverage wins PLAY NO. 4 - Third and 7 - Q2, 1:54 Haley gives Mayfield some options here. He gives him the usual "11" personnel, but this time from empty (no running back in the backfield). The Browns bring the trips to the field in a tight alignment, and work the No. 2 and No. 3 receivers on a "Drive Concept," giving them a high/low over the middle of the field. That is paired with a post/wheel into the boundary by David Njoku and Antonio Callaway. This scheme gives Mayfield blitz-beaters and man-to-man beaters. Again the Buccaneers just flat out do a great job at covering it. Bucs linebacker Lavonte David (No. 54) takes away Njoku's wheel the entire time. The single high safety rotates to take away Callaway's wheel, and the squatting strong safety and MIKE linebacker read the drive concept well. Mayfield needs to give this ball early to Duke Johnson on his crossing route. Mayfield wants to throw this ball, and does pump fake it after he notices the safety driving on the route and Johnson settle down. By the time he realizes the ball has to be out, it's too late, and Carl Nassib makes the sack. Mayfield will tell you this ball needs to be delivered quickly. Who is to blame: Mayfield PLAY NO. 5 - First and 10 - Q3, 8:55 Browns come out this time in "12" personnel with one running back and two tight ends to the field. Again we see the Browns pair the "Drive Concept" with a post/wheel. They will also pair it with a "Rail Route" by the running back out of the backfield to attempt to get a linebacker chasing. Mayfield has options to both sides, but he is likely coached to read the "Rail Route" quickly, then work to his "DriveConcept" and post/wheel. This one goes awry off the snap. We will see Mayfield feel the need to escape the pocket early and release to his left, which takes him away from most of his route answers. The "Dig" by Fells comes open late, but by that time, Mayfield has worked away from him. The Bucs cover the running back out easily off the snap, and take away the crosser in front of Mayfield's face. This sack ends up being on Mayfield, as he either has to throw this ball away or work with patience to his left to find the "Dig" by Fells working over the middle. Who is to blame: Mayfield PLAY NO. 6 - Second and 11 - Q3, 8:33 Browns come out in "11" personnel with a Pistol look in the backfield (running back aligned behind the quarterback in shotgun). Off the snap, Mayfield will sell play-action to RB Nick Chubb and drop five steps. He is then reading the crossing action from Damion Ratley (No. 18), and Jarvis Landry down the middle of the field, with options for a check-down to Chubb late if he needs it. Everything takes shape well off the snap as Tampa Bay's two interior linebackers bite on play-action, and nobody in the Buccaneers secondary travels with Landry after his play-side corner passes him off. In an ideal world, we would see Mayfield rip this one off his fifth step in the drop with anticipation. Instead, Mayfield is a beat slow and when he does see Landry spring free, Njoku has missed his block on Buccaneers defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (No. 90), who is quickly in the backfield to make the sack. If this play has a split-second more, it is likely a long completion. Who is to blame: Mayfield and Njoku PLAY NO. 7 - Third and 3 - OT, 5:24 The Browns come out again in "11" personnel and run a concept they have run all year: Chip Kelly Mesh. This calls for a settle over the middle at 10 yards by the tight end, and a pair of crossing routes by the "X" and "H" receivers. He also has a "Rail Route" by his running back out of the backfield. The quarterback is to read zone or man and make his decision based off the trail or pass technique used by the defense. The Browns catch the Buccaneers in man-to-man, and the concept has some hope, but you can see how quickly the pressure gets to Mayfield. The end-zone view shows you how quickly the Bucs were able to apply pressure with just four rushers, and Mayfield had no time to actually read what was happening at the mesh point for a throw. Chris Hubbard and Desmond Harrison get bull-rushed into Mayfield's lap, and that forces him to step up, where Nassib uses a spin move to bring down Mayfield. Who is to blame: Offensive line FINAL THOUGHTS The offense is struggling, no doubt about it. The second half saw some success when the Browns let Mayfield work quickly from the gun, and keep his eyes downfield. It's not often we see Haley dial up quick throws, or play-action dump-off schemes for easy throws for the rookie quarterback. Often we see the Browns use five-step drops combined with deeper crossing routes, and as we know, those take time to develop. Even when the Browns do use play-action, it usually is paired with a vertical pass drop to give routes time to develop. Long story short, the Browns are asking this offensive line to maintain blocks longer, and asking their young quarterback to have impeccable timing. The game is still moving quickly for Mayfield, and this offense is nothing like the ones we saw him operate in at Oklahoma. There are wrinkles here and there, but at his system at OU was different. Mayfield has a vast amount of potential, and he will be fine long-term. But, for now, the Browns are asking the rookie to make big plays, and pairing him with an offensive line that rarely gives him extended time for finding the answer. If Mayfield's timing is off, the play is usually off and the Browns get put behind the sticks. The answer lies in a higher number of quick throws for the rookie to establish rhythm. PFF CLE Browns@PFF_Browns Mayfield vs the #Buccaneers, broken down by time-to-throw: <2.5 seconds: 15-for-20, 2 TDs, no sacks, 126.9 passer rating >2.5 seconds: 8-for-14, 0 TDs, 5 sacks, 72.9 passer rating Jake Burns@jake_burns18 When analyzing the Browns issues in getting rid of the football, Baker Mayfield plays a big part in the struggles. OL and WRs have issues too. The Browns are asking Mayfield to have impeccable timing, and often calling long-developing concepts. Puts a strain on everyone. 12:20 PM - Oct 23, 2018 113 52 people are talking about this Twitter Ads info and privacy Per Pro Football Focus, 55.7 percent of Mayfield's throws have come under 2.5 seconds, which is about league average. He could use more of those concepts as we saw on the opening script. You can see the number in the above tweet tells a clear story about how the rookie best operates: quick tempo schemes that allow him to trust his eyes and let the arm talent take over. The difference in stats between the two delivery times is staggering. The Browns could also use Mayfield speeding up his internal clock, and avoiding passing up on underneath routes for tougher throws. He did this on occasion at Oklahoma, and it was knock on Mayfield as a prospect. He will have to learn that taking the "check-down" and underneath throws likely means more long-term success in the NFL. The Browns have to stay in front of the chains consistently to find success -- he has to avoid those unnecessary sacks. Mayfield and the rest of the offense will have another chance to get things moving in the right direction at Pittsburgh this Sunday as the Steelers have one of the league's worst pass defenses so far in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 Good stuff... a couple thoughts. As soon as we read "Njoku fails to block JPP" fault has to be ascribed to the blocking scheme. Early we see Baker miss a target to which he has a clear sight line. Later we see cases where he clearly does not bringing height into question. On at least one of the "coverage wins" examples (Play #2) while others are open (albeit with no sight line to them}, where Baker was looking (thru a throwing lane) should come open as well given the relationship of the WR, who will cut out, to the DB, who is closing to the middle of the field. Reading these relationships is what elite QBs do. Maybe in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted October 24, 2018 Report Share Posted October 24, 2018 Almost TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darren15 Posted October 26, 2018 Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 The hit to the head may have shrunk him a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zombo Posted October 26, 2018 Report Share Posted October 26, 2018 Baker is Rookie of the Week. Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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