How the Browns Can Get Five 1st Round Picks (article)

[jiggins7919]

Josh Allen this, Sam Darnold that, don't forget about Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson either—is anyone else tired of “report” after “report” linked to who the Cleveland Browns are selecting with the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft?

At this point in the offseason, the NFL’s “silly season” has reached a point where—at least for this writer and fan—the non-stop back and forth and rumor after rumor regarding who will hopefully become the franchise quarterback for the Browns has me wishing the mute button on Twitter could apply to this entire conversation until the end of April.

Since the quarterback conversation isn’t likely to end any time soon, I would like to take a moment to interrupt your regularly scheduled quarterback rumor discussion time to have a little fun courtesy of a post from one of our subscribers in our Ask the Insiders forum.

For those of you who have not yet had a chance to take a look at the discussion, let me break it down for you (this is a sneak peek behind the curtain for those of you non-subscribers out there). One of our subscribers asked for an Insider opinion on how many first round picks the Browns could realistically end up with in this year’s draft.

At first when I read the question, I thought to myself that three first round picks would be a good answer. But then when I sat down and started typing, I ended up landing on the number five.

Five first round picks? “Bob, you have lost your mind” is likely what many of you reading this article are thinking right about now. If that is how you feel, please head over to The Watercooler and start a thread called “Bob has lost his mind” and tell everyone how big of an idiot I am for thinking this and do not bother reading any further. I take that back, keep reading ... then call me an idiot in the forums. 

For those of you who are still here, I am glad to have peaked your interest. I do have a method to the madness you are about to read—which will be explained in-depth and backed up with some historical background to go with it. But first, let’s re-visit the Browns current draft capital in the first three rounds.

2018 Browns Draft Capital

As of the time of writing this article, the Browns are proud owners of Nos. 1, 4, 33, 35 and 64 in the first three rounds of the 2018 NFL Draft. The team did own No. 65, the first pick in the third round, however it was traded to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

General Manager John Dorsey has done some shuffling in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft thanks to trades which involved Jarvis Landry, DeShone Kizer, Danny Sheltonand other players coming and going, but for the sake of this quick escape from reality on how the Browns could end up with five first round picks, we do not really have to worry about them at this time.

Pick No. 1

The Browns first pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft just so happens to be the one everyone is talking about, which is No. 1. Unless Dorsey and company are playing the greatest game of poker ever played by an NFL team, it isn’t likely this pick is going anywhere—as it will be used on the team’s future franchise quarterback.

So, let’s go ahead and lock the No. 1 pick in as the first of five picks for our exercise.

Number of 1st Round Picks: 2

Trade With Buffalo Takes the Total to Three

 

Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. In regard to the Browns and Bills, there has been smoke around the possibility of the Bills moving up from No. 12 to No. 4 from the moment they moved up from No. 21 to No. 12 in a deal with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Looking at the Bills roster, it is hard to believe they are going to go into the 2018 season with AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman as the future of their QB position. On top of this, the Bills have positioned themselves well—owning Nos. 12 (from Cincinnati), 22 (from Kansas City), 53, 56 (from the LA Rams), 65 (from Cleveland) and No. 96 (from Philadelphia) in the first three rounds alone.

If the Bills were to offer Nos. 12, 22, 56 and 65 to the Browns for No. 4, Dorsey and company would have to take a long, hard look at the deal—likely finding it difficult to turn down. On the Bills side, on the surface it looks like a steep price to pay, but when you break it down they would be moving picks acquired in the Patrick Mahomes trade down, Sammy Watkins trade and aforementioned trade with the Browns for Taylor. The deal would presumably land them their QB of the future at No. 4, and still leave the Bills with picks in the second and third rounds of the draft a year after making the playoffs.

For the sake of the fun we are having in this article, let’s assume the deal is made. The Browns go back from No. 4 to No. 12, while picking up 22, 56 and 65 in the process.

Number of 1st Round Picks: 3

 

Bringing Truth to Seattle Rumors

This time of year, there are a lot of rumors floating around linking teams to possible draft day trades. One of those teams rumored to be looking to deal is the Seattle Seahawks picking at No. 18 in the first round. Why, you ask? Well, for a couple reasons.

Reason No. 1 is the Seahawks own only one pick in the first three rounds of the 2018 NFL Draft. After picking at No. 18, they do not pick again until No. 20 in the fourth round and then four times in round five. Needless to say, for a team that has moved on from Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson and more this offseason, they are not currently in the best position to rebuild their roster at this time.

The second reason is actually a little more fun, as the Seahawks seemingly have been involved in a trade involving their first round pick every year. In 2017, they traded No. 26 to Atlanta for 31, 95 and 249. They then traded 31 to San Francisco for 34 and 111. Then after that, they moved 34 to Jacksonville for 35 and 187 before actually making a pick at No. 35.

In 2016, they again traded No. 26 to Denver for 31 and 94. In 2015, they traded No. 31 and Max Unger to New Orleans for Graham and No. 112. In 2014, their pick at No. 32 was traded to Minnesota for 40 and 108. 2013? Yup, you guessed it—they traded No. 25, 214 and a 2014 third-round pick to Minnesota for Percy Harvin.

In fact, you have to go back to the 2012 NFL Draft where Seattle even had a pick high enough to consider not trading (No. 12), but they traded that to Philadelphia in exchange for the No. 15 pick that year.

Now that you have the backstory, let’s tie it all together in a nice bow.

If the Browns have a player in mind at No. 18 they do not think will make it to them at 33 and is highly rated on their board, the Seahawks could be an excellent trade partner for them. With an extra second-round pick in their arsenal from the Bills trade above, Dorsey could offer Nos. 33 and 56 (acquired in hypothetical trade with Bills) for 18 and one of the Seahawks 5th round picks.

Obviously, this depends on Seattle’s board and how far they are willing to drop, but 18 and a 5th for 33 and 56 is right around the correct value on both Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart and the Harvard chart.

Number of 1st Round Picks: 4

 

The Final Acquisition

Alright friends, we have made it. Two first round picks have multiplied to four, but we are not done just yet. After moving up from No. 33 to No. 18, it is time to find a way to move up from No. 35 into the late first round.

Why would the Browns do this, you ask? Usually a team targets a move up from the early second round to the late first because a player they expected to go in the early to mid-20s has fallen there. A recent example is in last year’s draft when the Browns moved up from 33 to 29 with the Packers and added No. 108 in round four to select David Njoku. Also, first round picks come with a fifth-year team option, while second round picks have only four years on their contracts.

For our exercise, we are assuming this happens again and the Browns look to move up from No. 35 to the late first round to secure a player who has dropped further than they expected. In this case, the Browns move up to No. 30 with Minnesota for 35 and the Browns pick in the fourth round.

Number of 1st Round Picks: 5

 

Mocking Five First Round Picks

Well Browns fans who have made it this far, you didn’t think I was going to leave you with just a list of picks, did you? Now proud owners of five first round picks (as well as keeping pick 64 and re-acquiring 65 in the hypothetical Bills trade), let’s have some fun with our new assets.

No. 1 – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

While I prefer Josh Rosen at this spot, there has been too much talk about Darnold to ignore at this point.

No. 12 (from Buffalo) – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

 

Is it possible Ward goes higher than this? Absolutely, but for the sake of this mini-mock he is available. Selecting Ward snaps the “no Buckeyes” trend for the Browns and gives them an excellent prospect with shutdown, CB1 ability.

No. 18 (from Seattle) – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

After losing Joe Thomas to retirement, the Browns are currently looking in-house at options to replace him. I will not claim to be an expert on offensive linemen in the draft, but he is considered pro-ready by many and with Thomas reportedly still around working with linemen, could be the heir to Joe’s throne and get coached up by one of the greatest to ever play the position.

No. 22 (from Buffalo) – Harold Landry, Edge, Boston College

Many think Landry will go higher than this, but in my perfect world scenario he falls to No. 22. With Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah entrenched on the line, the Browns can bring Landry along in subpackages getting after the quarterback while developing him. As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com put it, “…he has an opportunity to become a Pro Bowler if he can improve his hand usage and develop an inside counter.” This situation would allow him to do just that.

No. 30 (from Minnesota) – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

This is an extreme perfect world scenario, as most expect Guice to be gone before this pick, but the position remains the same whether it is Guice or another one of the top RBs available. With Carlos Hyde on what could end up being a one-year deal and Duke Johnson not signed to an extension yet, the Browns decide to shore up their RB position with the LSU product who turns 21 in June.

Final Word

When I answered this question earlier in Ask the Insiders, it was mainly to have a little fun and dream about winding up with five picks in the first round of the NFL Draft. After running through the scenarios and my make-believe GMs of the other teams being very agreeable to the proposed deals, the fun has successfully become a reality here on The OBR.

Though this article was filled with hypothetical deals that may never come to fruition, the core point of the article remains.

Dorsey and the Cleveland Browns have the ability to not only make a major impact on their roster in year three of the rebuild, but they have the assets to become more than just players at Nos. 1 and 4 in the first round. With the right trade partners and a little creativity, Dorsey and company could find a way to make five selections and truly own the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

[mjp28]

Wow, but even without any more hocus-pocus magic stuff I still wonder who they could have with this start:

As of the time of writing this article, the Browns are proud owners of Nos. 1, 4, 33, 35 and 64 in the first three rounds of the 2018 NFL Draft.

They could still end up with a legitimate A or A+ draft.

[Tour2ma]

Odds are far greater that we will end up stuck at #4 and only have two 1st-round picks.

However, if we end up with five, then I hope we have a better haul than the five in the article.

[jiggins7919]

18 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Odds are far greater that we will end up stuck at #4 and only have two 1st-round picks.

However, if we end up with five, then I hope we have a better haul than the five in the article.

I'm 90% sure Buffalo is trading up with somebody, either with Giants or us. With the 12 pick, it's very possible someone tantalizing could fall to us, similar to when we screwed the pooch last year and Malik Hooker fell to us. Still, I'm quite content to hang at 4 and take one of the top talents we're hoping to get.