Darnold at #1?

[Flugel]

17 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

1. Gingers have no souls, which might be a positive for a QB.

2. I'm not sure there is a QB alive who would have looked good against Ohio State in that game. 

Precisely Dutch!  Imagine if we only counted Brady's first encounter with the NYG on Superbowl Sunday when they put heat on him from all over the pocket most of the day.  And if the dump-off RB Darnold is sentenced to has hands like Edward Scissorhands behind a banged up/patchwork line - it's a 60 minute diet of eating pigskin.  He still made some ideal throws under duress and improvise. 

If we're going to count wins and losses - let's count them.  Darnold is 20-4, which includes a Pac 12 Championship inclusive of a victory over a Big 10 Champion (PSU) that beat Ohio State. He's done all this by the end of his soph year.  

While Rosen has grown on me a lot, I KEEP reading he didn't have very much help.  He's got 2 offensive linemen about to be drafted as well as other teammates. In an impressive OG group - Quessenberry ranks 5th in Athlon's draft guide while Kolton Miller is ranked 6th among all OTs prior to a very good workout at Indy. His go-to WR Jordan Lasley had 69 receptions for 1264 yards and 9 TDs in the 9 games he played in (and he missed some of the same games Rosen missed so it wasn't like he went without him more than 1 or 2 times). 

[Flugel]

On 3/22/2018 at 1:42 PM, Tour2ma said:

 I absolutely love the little detail of Joe's hand position in this.

Me too.  The only nitpick is I would have preferred to see Joe's bear paws instead of Donald Trump's baby hands.  

[TexasAg1969]

30 minutes ago, Flugel said:

Precisely Dutch!  Imagine if we only counted Brady's first encounter with the NYG on Superbowl Sunday when they put heat on him from all over the pocket most of the day.  And if the dump-off RB Darnold is sentenced to has hands like Edward Scissorhands behind a banged up/patchwork line - it's a 60 minute diet of eating pigskin.  He still made some ideal throws under duress and improvise. 

If we're going to count wins and losses - let's count them.  Darnold is 20-4, which includes a Pac 12 Championship inclusive of a victory over a Big 10 Champion (PSU) that beat Ohio State. He's done all this by the end of his soph year.  

While Rosen has grown on me a lot, I KEEP reading he didn't have very much help.  He's got 2 offensive linemen about to be drafted as well as other teammates. In an impressive OG group - Quessenberry ranks 5th in Athlon's draft guide while Kolton Miller is ranked 6th among all OTs prior to a very good workout at Indy. His go-to WR Jordan Lasley had 69 receptions for 1264 yards and 9 TDs in the 9 games he played in (and he missed some of the same games Rosen missed so it wasn't like he went without him more than 1 or 2 times). 

Rosen didn't have any defense. It wasn't problems with the O other than not having a great RB this year. I think Rosen or Darnold would be a major step forward for us with time to develop behind Taylor (whom I think will surprise us all if the D vastly improves).

[Flugel]

5 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Rosen didn't have any defense. It wasn't problems with the O other than not having a great RB this year. I think Rosen or Darnold would be a major step forward for us with time to develop behind Taylor (whom I think will surprise us all if the D vastly improves).

Agreed but NFL scouts/teams aren't judging Rosen by who was playing defense for UCLA.  They may judge him on what he does with his ingredients on offense and that'll work well for him IMO. 

[Dutch Oven]

2 hours ago, Flugel said:

While Rosen has grown on me a lot, I KEEP reading he didn't have very much help.  He's got 2 offensive linemen about to be drafted as well as other teammates. In an impressive OG group - Quessenberry ranks 5th in Athlon's draft guide while Kolton Miller is ranked 6th among all OTs prior to a very good workout at Indy. His go-to WR Jordan Lasley had 69 receptions for 1264 yards and 9 TDs in the 9 games he played in (and he missed some of the same games Rosen missed so it wasn't like he went without him more than 1 or 2 times). 

He had some talent around him on offense, but where he had zero help on the defensive end. 

I feel fairly confident that Rosen could have had a 20-4 record at USC too...

[SD_Tom]

2 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

He had some talent around him on offense, but where he had zero help on the defensive end. 

I feel fairly confident that Rosen could have had a 20-4 record at USC too...

They had one of the worst running attacks in football. Their rushing defensive was even worse.  

 

[Dutch Oven]

13 minutes ago, SD_Tom said:

They had one of the worst running attacks in football. Their rushing defensive was even worse. 

I was just reading a scouting report on UCLA's LT Kolton Miller: 

"Miller is one of the few players who flashed positive reps at UCLA while scouts were watching quarterback Josh Rosen."

[Flugel]

4 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

He had some talent around him on offense, but where he had zero help on the defensive end. 

I feel fairly confident that Rosen could have had a 20-4 record at USC too...

Maybe even better than 20-4; but it doesn't change that I'm impressed by a soph QB sporting such a record. Looks like my reply to Aggies in the post right before your reply to me had a major typo now corrected in bold:

Agreed but NFL scouts/teams aren't judging Rosen by who was playing defense for UCLA.  They may judge him on what he does with his ingredients on offense and that'll work well for him IMO. 

[Westside Steve]

Is it Sam Darnold or Josh Allen for the Browns after their Pro Days? Hey, Mary Kay!

https://search.app.goo.gl/KskL

Anybody smell smoke?

WSS

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

Is it Sam Darnold or Josh Allen for the Browns after their Pro Days? Hey, Mary Kay!

https://search.app.goo.gl/KskL

Anybody smell smoke?

WSS

It's Mary Kay Steve, you should know better. You read farther down- Po's not the only Barkley Booster in town...  

[Tour2ma]

4 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

I was just reading a scouting report on UCLA's LT Kolton Miller: 

"Miller is one of the few players who flashed positive reps at UCLA while scouts were watching quarterback Josh Rosen."

It's hard to find an OT that checks more boxes than Miller... working out. On film? A lot of issues plus he got owned regularly in SR Bowl practices.

It's the OT vacuum at the top that is pulling names higher on "potential". Objectively it can be and has been argued that there's not an OT in this class worth a 1st round grade. I see two (UT's Williams and MSU's Rankin), but both belong in the 2nd half of the 1st.

[SD_Tom]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

It's hard to find an OT that checks more boxes than Miller... working out. On film? A lot of issues plus he got owned regularly in SR Bowl practices.

It's the OT vacuum at the top that is pulling names higher on "potential". Objectively it can be and has been argued that there's not an OT in this class worth a 1st round grade. I see two (UT's Williams and MSU's Rankin), but both belong in the 2nd half of the 1st.

You can watch any Rosen film and see Miller getting beat several times.  It's not like he was Joe Thomas at LT.  

[Westside Steve]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

It's Mary Kay Steve, you should know better. You read farther down- Po's not the only Barkley Booster in town...  

Well no doubt beat writers have to turn out copy. I don't see what she says that's that particularly ridiculous?

WSS

[Dutch Oven]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

It's hard to find an OT that checks more boxes than Miller... working out. On film? A lot of issues plus he got owned regularly in SR Bowl practices.

It's the OT vacuum at the top that is pulling names higher on "potential". Objectively it can be and has been argued that there's not an OT in this class worth a 1st round grade. I see two (UT's Williams and MSU's Rankin), but both belong in the 2nd half of the 1st.

I was just posting that Tour to illustrate that Rosen wasn't exactly surrounded by a ton of talent. The draft guide I pulled that out of had him ranked as the 11th-rated tackle. 

This isn't a good draft to try and find Joe Thomas's replacement. I'm vaguely intrigued by DII Tackle Alex Cappa as a later round developmental OT. 

[Tour2ma]

11 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

This isn't a good draft to try and find Joe Thomas's replacement. I'm vaguely intrigued by DII Tackle Alex Cappa as a later round developmental OT. 

Dearth of plud'n'play for sure, but there are some interesting developmental prospects.

34 minutes ago, SD_Tom said:

You can watch any Rosen film and see Miller getting beat several times.  It's not like he was Joe Thomas at LT.  

That was the story of the Sr. Bowl practices as well... or at least half of it. Miller would get beaten wide with speed, compensate and then get beaten across his face.

While he can develop... I just don't like the risk factor especially as high as he is likely to go. I really start to get uncomfortable when an OT prospect is over 6'6" and has yet to show the kind of movement and balance a good one needs.

[SD_Tom]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Dearth of plud'n'play for sure, but there are some interesting developmental prospects.

That was the story of the Sr. Bowl practices as well... or at least half of it. Miller would get beaten wide with speed, compensate and then get beaten across his face.

While he can develop... I just don't like the risk factor especially as high as he is likely to go. I really start to get uncomfortable when an OT prospect is over 6'6" and has yet to show the kind of movement and balance a good one needs.

Yep.  The tape I saw, they just blew around him with speed.  Rosen got absolutely smashed on some of those blind side hits.  

 

[jiggins7919]

I'm now to the point where I'm fine with THREE of the QB's.  The only one I don't like at ALL is Josh Allen, and there's a lengthy list of "physical freaks with big arms" that didn't amount to much, and I don't want yet another one of our guys to be on it.  

Tour loves Josh Rosen, and it's easy to see why.  In fact, he'd easily be my #1 if not for the injury concerns.  Add in the fact we lost Joe Thomas (I'm still not over THAT btw), and I don't know if we can draft a guy with injury concerns, regardless if they're overblown a bit.  That being said, I still wouldn't be upset if we took the guy.  He's got tremendous talent and is known to be extremely bright.  I actually don't worry about the "guys don't like him" or "he's overconfident" crap.  That could be a weakness, or it could be a strength.  His mentality could easily elevate others around him to get things RIGHT.  

Sam Darnold is the one guy I've come a long way on, and while I still can't "explain away" the awful turnovers, fumbles, and terrible decision making like so many analysts, I'm starting to really see what this guy COULD be.  The problem is, when you draft a guy #1, you don't really want to draft solely on "what could be", and you'd LIKE to have somebody a tad more "ready".  Now, perhaps I'm wrong and he's further along than I think, but when I watch the guy, I simply see "raw".  Don't get me wrong a lot of that "RAW" is completely awesome, but there's so much that I worry about with him.  If a guy is making terrible decisions in college, I just don't see why that will change in the NFL.  If he doesn't see triple coverage in the Pac-10, or whatever conference is, how is he going to avoid those mistakes against the best players in the world?  Conversely, I was kind of floored at SMOOTH Darnold is doing the most basic tasks.  Play-action looks fast and compact (still needs a LOT of work cuz it's new under center), and his roll-outs are extremely impressive.  Just the speed and power he displays doing a simple bootleg is evident, and we all know he's very capable throwing on the run...probably the best actually.  He's got nice size, plenty of arm, is apparently a saint off the field, and is dangerous running it, too.  

My guy remains Baker Mayfield, and I seriously doubt anything will be changing my mind.  In fact, I see him as the only "week 1 starter" in this class.  Baker won his firsts starting job at A&M as a walk-on, and I think he got hurt or something (don't remember the entire story), and when Pat Mahomes arrived, he saw the writing on the wall and decided to be a walk-on at Oklahoma, and promptly won THAT starting job.  The rest is history, and he put up some really stupid numbers.  Besides the personal stats, he also helped his team get to the playoffs, which is no easy task.  He's beyond accurate, doesn't turn it over much, and for being so "short", doesn't appear to get many passes batted down.  He's got the kind of attitude I believe our beleaguered franchise NEEDS, and I could completely see the guy beating out Tyrod Taylor for the starting job.  Well, more so than the other guys.  I think it would take a miracle for the Browns to bench Taylor, but we'll see.  Heck, I'm one of the few Browns fans that is absolutely in love with the Tyrod trade.  I think he immediately stabilizes our entire, freaking TEAM.  Are we going to the playoffs?  No.  Do I think we'll possibly be in the CONVERSATION in late November??  Ehhhhh.....possibly.  

Anyway, as long as it's not Josh Allen, I'm fine.  I don't want the guy who LOOKS the part.  I want the guy who IS the part.  I don't care if he can throw a ball clear over dem mountains like Uncle Rico.  How often do you see 75 yard passes in the NFL?  What we need is a guy who can throw a ball to a guy coming out of his break on a 3rd and 6, and do that routinely over the course of a game.  We need a guy who doesn't throw the ball to the other team, or fumble it constantly, or God forbid turn it over in the freaking RED ZONE.   

[Osiris]

On 3/20/2018 at 8:53 PM, Babernakle said:

I feel that’s it’s a sure thing Darnold is going to be a brown.  And I’m really happy about that.  But now with the heat being turned up with people after Barkley and Chubb or one of the other three qbs that 4 spot really gets valuable.  So if the browns get the other teams 1 and 1 next year and a 2 and 3 this year should they trade down? I say yes because of the statistics of where most great players come from but either way the browns are in a great spot but like I said I take more picks what do you fellas think

 

I agree that it's Darnold at #1. Here's how I think the first 4 picks will go:

1. Darnold to Browns

2. Chubb to Giants (JPP trade makes this more likely, but QB is also possible).

3. Rosen to Jets

4. Fitzpatrick to Browns as most likely, but possible trade down to a team that wants Allen or Mayfield. 

I get all the interest in Barkley, but it's not going to happen. Dorsey has never selected a running back higher than the second round. He listed the top 5 most important positions on a football team in an interview, and RB wasn't on that list. QB, DB, Edge, LT and WR were. We aren't spending the #4 pick on a position that the GM thinks is not as important when a stud (Fitzpatrick) will be available to fill one of his top-5.

 

[calfoxwc]

I can see Darnold - were I to bet, I'd bet he's the pick, it's easy to understand how Allen gets sold short.

The truth is, Rosen was coached by Jim Mora his entire UCLA career. Sure he looks pretty, but he has a better chance  of being a bust than Rudolph or Jackson. He looks the part throwing, but the knocks on him are more entrenched that coaching can change. He's a whiner, a complainer, and his completion percentage plummets when under pressure or he has to roll out, not very mobile.

His offensive line is why he had the time to throw pretty, to wide open TE's, outlet throws, and occainsional wr. Has limited deep ball accuracy, poor mobility, too much air under longer throws, durability is a concern.... completed only 42 % of his throws when he has to move....

    but watch some highlight tapes of him. Best pocket passer. But on a huge play, players congratulate each other. Rosen

usually just walks off the field and sits alone. Something missing there. One time, his olineman did helmet bump him, so he does have one friend on the team, eh?

   The NFL is a giant step up. I don't see the love of football, and fight with rosen. Windows are a lot closer in the NFL - he doesn't have a gun to get the ball there before a pro safety picks it off.

  Polished, sure. But there is a lot more to being a successful pro qb than polish. Drafter beware, says I.

I like Darnold more and more - and Allen, Mayfield and Rudolph. Four qb's who can rally their teammates to win a game in the mud and the snow, who are so freaking competitive it rallies their teammates around them.

   I don't want Rosen to fail in his football life - I just don't know what success to him is. There are plenty of NFL folks who wonder, too.

   Truth is, Mason Rudolph may very well surprise and have a better NFL career than Rosen.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/3/3/17073246/mason-rudolph-draft-oklahoma-state-qb-2018

     

[Tour2ma]

 

3 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

I'm now to the point where I'm fine with THREE of the QB's. 

Different order and I can only get to two...

What separates Rosen from the pack in my mind are his demonstrated abilities to go thru progressions and anticipate throws... two skills that none of the other top four QBs have shown. This overwhelms my minimal concern about concussion potential. Pocket QBs, which is what Rosen is, are concussed less frequently than running QBs. When you have a floor this high starring you in the face, you don't go looking for ceilings.

Second, a distant second for me, is Mayfield. In part it's the "chip-on-his-shoulder"... in part it's his accuracy... in part it's his solid fundamentals... and in part it's simply that once I took a hard look any reminder of JFF faded away. While I do not see "NFL ready", his transition will be among the toughest of this year's crop, I do see him making it eventually.

Darnold? I tried to accept him in large part due to a building, resignation-fueled inevitability. I tried to convince myself that a guy who can post his numbers with this many flaws has upside. I wish I had not watched his Pro Day. I wish I had seen what almost everyone else says they saw. But I did watch and so I just can't hop on the Darnold train.

Allen? Another Pro Day I should not have watched because again it left questions in my mind about what is wrong. If we want to get as close as we can to Kizer 2.0, look no further.

[Tour2ma]

Latest Vegas odds for #1 overall...

Negative figures are the amount you have to bet to win $100. Positive odds are the amount a $100 bet will win you.

[SD_Tom]

3 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

I can see Darnold - were I to bet, I'd bet he's the pick, it's easy to understand how Allen gets sold short.

The truth is, Rosen was coached by Jim Mora his entire UCLA career. Sure he looks pretty, but he has a better chance  of being a bust than Rudolph or Jackson. He looks the part throwing, but the knocks on him are more entrenched that coaching can change. He's a whiner, a complainer, and his completion percentage plummets when under pressure or he has to roll out, not very mobile.

His offensive line is why he had the time to throw pretty, to wide open TE's, outlet throws, and occainsional wr. Has limited deep ball accuracy, poor mobility, too much air under longer throws, durability is a concern.... completed only 42 % of his throws when he has to move....

    but watch some highlight tapes of him. Best pocket passer. But on a huge play, players congratulate each other. Rosen

usually just walks off the field and sits alone. Something missing there. One time, his olineman did helmet bump him, so he does have one friend on the team, eh?

   The NFL is a giant step up. I don't see the love of football, and fight with rosen. Windows are a lot closer in the NFL - he doesn't have a gun to get the ball there before a pro safety picks it off.

  Polished, sure. But there is a lot more to being a successful pro qb than polish. Drafter beware, says I.

I like Darnold more and more - and Allen, Mayfield and Rudolph. Four qb's who can rally their teammates to win a game in the mud and the snow, who are so freaking competitive it rallies their teammates around them.

   I don't want Rosen to fail in his football life - I just don't know what success to him is. There are plenty of NFL folks who wonder, too.

   Truth is, Mason Rudolph may very well surprise and have a better NFL career than Rosen.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/3/3/17073246/mason-rudolph-draft-oklahoma-state-qb-2018

     

Pretty much every knock you have on rosen has no bearing in reality. Yeah,  he is less accurate when flushed.  Who isn't? He stays in the pocket to deliver a strike better than just about anyone. Not many qbs could lead a comeback like this one.  Yes he got lucky on some throws, but that seems to happen with the good ones. 

No love of the game? Teammates don't rally around him? Offensive line that made him look great? That's a load of garbage. 

 

[SD_Tom]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

 

Different order and I can only get to two...

What separates Rosen from the pack in my mind are his demonstrated abilities to go thru progressions and anticipate throws... two skills that none of the other top four QBs have shown. This overwhelms my minimal concern about concussion potential. Pocket QBs, which is what Rosen is, are concussed less frequently than running QBs. When you have a floor this high starring you in the face, you don't go looking for ceilings.

Second, a distant second for me, is Mayfield. In part it's the "chip-on-his-shoulder"... in part it's his accuracy... in part it's his solid fundamentals... and in part it's simply that once I took a hard look any reminder of JFF faded away. While I do not see "NFL ready", his transition will be among the toughest of this year's crop, I do see him making it eventually.

Darnold? I tried to accept him in large part due to a building, resignation-fueled inevitability. I tried to convince myself that a guy who can post his numbers with this many flaws has upside. I wish I had not watched his Pro Day. I wish I had seen what almost everyone else says they saw. But I did watch and so I just can't hop on the Darnold train.

Allen? Another Pro Day I should not have watched because again it left questions in my mind about what is wrong. If we want to get as close as we can to Kizer 2.0, look no further.

Passes the eye test many times over. 

 

[SD_Tom]

Here's the same guy reviewing Darnold. 

Definitely very different QB's.  

 

[TexasAg1969]

Did you guys see this report that we are baiting the Giants to trade with us so they can take Darnold and we take Allen. Nightmare city if true.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Bolt/NFL-Draft-Browns-baiting-Giants-into-trade-up-for-Sam-Darnold-116703000?utm_source=247Sports Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=180326_130739_Cleveland Browns Newsletter&utm_content=Image&liveconnect=1B-C2-1E-69-15-F3-1E-26-47-C2-FB-AF-1F-3D-14-30180326_130739ClevelandBrownsNewsletter

[Bigalow80]

I saw that as well. It's interesting that there seem to be quite a few reports out there about how much the browns really like Allen. Would it shock you if the giants swapped #2 and OBJ for #1 and Coleman? I personally don't want anything to do with OBJ as I think he is a cancer, but that is the type of deal that the browns could make and people would find a way to think it was ok. Also, the signing of Stanton just screams to me they want  a guy whom is not going to see the field for at least 1 year and that guy is Josh Allen. 

[Tour2ma]

37 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Did you guys see this report that we are baiting the Giants to trade with us so they can take Darnold and we take Allen. Nightmare city if true.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Bolt/NFL-Draft-Browns-baiting-Giants-into-trade-up-for-Sam-Darnold-116703000?utm_source=247Sports Newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=180326_130739_Cleveland Browns Newsletter&utm_content=Image&liveconnect=1B-C2-1E-69-15-F3-1E-26-47-C2-FB-AF-1F-3D-14-30180326_130739ClevelandBrownsNewsletter

Yup... sent me right to the couch for recuperation...

[Tour2ma]

16 minutes ago, Bigalow80 said:

I saw that as well. It's interesting that there seem to be quite a few reports out there about how much the browns really like Allen. Would it shock you if the giants swapped #2 and OBJ for #1 and Coleman? I personally don't want anything to do with OBJ as I think he is a cancer, but that is the type of deal that the browns could make and people would find a way to think it was ok. Also, the signing of Stanton just screams to me they want  a guy whom is not going to see the field for at least 1 year and that guy is Josh Allen. 

Agree on OBJ... availability is low and he's turned out to be a real diva.

Allen may be the least prepared to start in the NFL, but Darnold needs time as well and any QB could benefit from some learning time... so I don't read that much into the Stanton move.

[jrb12711]

1 hour ago, Tour2ma said:

Agree on OBJ... availability is low and he's turned out to be a real diva.

Allen may be the least prepared to start in the NFL, but Darnold needs time as well and any QB could benefit from some learning time... so I don't read that much into the Stanton move.

The only thing to consider is that the Browns will almost certainly have 3 QB's on the 53 man roster, which Hue has been very opposed to most weeks.

[Dutch Oven]

4 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Did you guys see this report that we are baiting the Giants to trade with us so they can take Darnold and we take Allen. Nightmare city if true.

If true, this is the moment we look back at and point to as the beginning of the end of John Dorsey, GM of the Cleveland Browns. 

I can't stress how bad a fit Josh Allen is for the Browns, and vice versa.