Tour2ma Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Some jaw-droppingly impressive work by a really good r/Browns poster. I just got knocked off the Kerryon Johnson train... Here is link to the spreadsheet that summarizes the work: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FifAK10L2GK8Pc-8DNooK5gV4IxMIOpwZQeyU-MdB-I/edit#gid=89087249 The rest of this post is straight copied from: https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/85kkul/oc_analytical_scouting_of_running_back_prospects/ ============================================================================================================================= [OC] Analytical Scouting of Running Back Prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft (docs.google.com) The Visualizations tab shows a color-coded aggregation of the relevant statistics, as well as the best charts Google Sheets has to offer. Each other tab has every carry by each of the top backs in the class, exported by a custom Python script from a JSON (found here) generated from ESPN's NCAA Play-by-Play data. My takeaways from this data: Saquon Barkley is an incredibly inefficient runner. His worst-in-class percent of runs of zero or fewer, one or fewer, two or fewer, and three or fewer yards, his success rate that betters only Rashaad Penny and Josh Adams, and his mediocre average yards per carry all point to a back that hurt his team's offensive success more often than he helped it. Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, and Royce Freeman are very efficient runners. Their high success rates and very low percentages of negative gains - among the best four backs in each of percent of carries of zero or fewer, one or fewer, two or fewer, and three or fewer yards - show that these three kept their offense moving forward. Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Josh Adams are the biggest boom-or-bust prospects in the class. Low success rates and median yards per carry mixed with high average yards per carry and high percentages of carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage show backs who very often went down quickly, but broke off several long runs to improve their average yards per carry. Penny, with the lowest percent of gains of zero or fewer, one or fewer, two or fewer, three or fewer, and four or fewer yards of the group, was clearly the least bust-oriented back of the three. Sony Michel runs efficiently but still has the same boom potential as Barkley, Penny, and Adams. Michel's best-in-class average yards per carry match with a high success rate and the (by far) lowest-in-class percent of carries of zero or fewer, one or fewer, two or fewer, and four or fewer yards - and only giving up a slight advantage to Guice on percent of carries of three or fewer yards - to show a back who kept his offense ahead of the chains but had the ability to rip off big gains nearly at will. The caveat here is, of course, that Michel had 51 fewer carries than anybody else studied in this analysis, giving him a rather small sample size - but it's pretty clear that he's statistically above the rest of the class in a combination of efficiency and explosiveness. In conclusion, if you want a big, steady back who won't go backwards and will gain you yards to keep you ahead of the chains, Derrius Guice and Royce Freeman are the best options. If you want a back who threatens a home run every down but doesn't offset that with drive-killing success rates and negative gains, Sony Michel and, to a lesser extent, Rashaad Penny are the choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 In conclusion, if you want a big, steady back who won't go backwards and will gain you yards to keep you ahead of the chains, Derrius Guice and Royce Freeman are the best options. If you want a back who threatens a home run every down but doesn't offset that with drive-killing success rates and negative gains, Sony Michel and, to a lesser extent, Rashaad Penny are the choices. Come the second round, I would expect the Browns to potentially pop for one of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD_Tom Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 I don't think you can go wrong with penny, guice or Michel. There's a lot of great film on all of them. I'm not quite pog level of infatuation.... but I've seen Penny enough times to think his style would work well in the NFL. SDSU seems to know how to train and develop /coach RBs. They're doing something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SissyBoyFloyd Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Derrius Guice is the stud of his class. that should be our pick at 2.1 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, SissyBoyFloyd said: Derrius Guice is the stud of his class. that should be our pick at 2.1 period. And I said a few weeks back that Michel was my dark horse pick. He also has great hands so there's that. That analysis agrees with my take that Barkley is way overrated. I'd take Michel, Guice or Penny any day over him in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark O Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, SD_Tom said: I don't think you can go wrong with penny, guice or Michel. There's a lot of great film on all of them. I'm not quite pog level of infatuation.... but I've seen Penny enough times to think his style would work well in the NFL. SDSU seems to know how to train and develop /coach RBs. They're doing something right. No one other that a certain someone and his love of a certain Wyoming QB can reach that level of infatuation. That said...I think Penny will be really good in the NFL but I also think that there's a whole lot of guys in this RB class that will be really good which makes it easy to pass on Barley in the first round. There's talent that can be found in a later round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dutch Oven Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Mark O said: No one other that a certain someone and his love of a certain Wyoming QB can reach that level of infatuation. That said...I think Penny will be really good in the NFL but I also think that there's a whole lot of guys in this RB class that will be really good which makes it easy to pass on Barley in the first round. There's talent that can be found in a later round. I love this RB class, this works out well for the Browns having three 2nd rounders. A really good back should fall into our laps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dutch Oven Posted March 19, 2018 Report Share Posted March 19, 2018 What's your thoughts on Ronald Jones of USC, Tour? I've liked him as a potential replacement for Duke, if he's not signed to an extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD_Tom Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 44 minutes ago, Mark O said: No one other that a certain someone and his love of a certain Wyoming QB can reach that level of infatuation. That said...I think Penny will be really good in the NFL but I also think that there's a whole lot of guys in this RB class that will be really good which makes it easy to pass on Barley in the first round. There's talent that can be found in a later round. It's definitely a loaded class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoeticG Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Stats and numbers don't tell the whole story. I like Penny, he reminds me of Cribbs. But the stats don't tell you that Penny faced off against a lot of players that won't make it to the next level, thus his number's reflect that. Michelle and Chubbs both ran rampart for the same team. Seems like Offensive scheme and great offensive line play both factor into the success of their run game. Georgia was dogging people with that run game- and a pretty good QB as well. The numbers support that. Before I wrap this up I just have to say that I watched all these guys and went into my evaluations with a 100% non-biased opinion. I didn't have a dog in the fight. Guice is a tough little guy. I liked him - after watching him I discovered Barkley. When you see something extraordinary it hits you. Their movements are completely different. Watch them side by side- Barkley has the control and the sway-swag that just can't be taught. Guice's moves are more labored, it's like he just knows he isn't going to get past you so he just runs into you... you don't see that with Barkley, he seems to think he can make anybody miss- because he's so talented. When he gets to the next level he's going to find more athletic guys consistently, he'll still have the edge but not by as much. He will probably transition just fine into a more straight line runner, but that ability to go impromptu when things break down is something that you don't want to take away... maybe harness it a bit but as I've heard, "Saquon's a dog, dogs do dog things".... Anyways, back to Guice, I guess it's just something you have to "see", stats won't show you the art of the moves. I think Guice's ceiling is about Crowell, straight line runner, get what you can, however, just like Saquon, his ability is going to be challenged with some of the most athletic, physical players in the game. Although he's a good player and I'd welcome him as a complementary back to Barkley, same for Penny, but there is just no substitute for the real juice. Saquon is what I had hoped Richardson to be for us. I still have a bad taste in my mouth as for how all that played out. This for me making up for that. If the draft was a pickup game and I'm picking first- I know who I'm taking. Saquon - Saygone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD_Tom Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, PoeticG said: . When you see something extraordinary it hits you. You've definitely been hitting something extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 If you are into this stuff and have not yet visited the thread on reddit, there's an interesting, fledgling effort to meld the RB analysis with Football Outsiders OL analysis. Here's the link to the FO stuff... https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol 4 hours ago, Dutch Oven said: What's your thoughts on Ronald Jones of USC, Tour? I've liked him as a potential replacement for Duke, if he's not signed to an extension. Exactly yours... he's a lil bigger, lil faster Duke. That said... we already have a Duke. There will be more... If we draft an RB this time, I think I'm heading to one of my Day 3 kids, ASU's Ballage or NW's Jackson. Of course that's in addition to Barky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SissyBoyFloyd Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 One of you RB experts check out the video highlights on youtube for Chase Edmonds, Fordham and tell us whay you think and who he compares to in this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 OK PoG-watch a real running back against SEC level defenses (plus OU). 7.9 ypc this year, not your measly 4.whatever plus no-shows against his best defenses by Barffley. And pay attention to some of his runs after first contact too. This is a RB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LogicIsForSquares Posted March 20, 2018 Report Share Posted March 20, 2018 Michel, Guice, Penny, or (after that RB analysis) Freeman. Any one of those guys to share the load with Hyde and Duke would be cool by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.