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From nobody to the top of the first round of the draft - Josh Allen

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We talked late last year about Kizer, so we all miss. Or they missed on coaching a kid up? Am thinking the card reads Darnold..Unless Haley & Hue want to take on the Rosen mind challenge game..agree on Allen's potential, but Hue may never see it in time..maybe Dorsey does?   

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13 minutes ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

I miss more than I hit.

With QBs who doesn't? That's why I like the OL... :)

Agree on the start of your post... you can't mix in outputs like "accuracy" with inputs like footwork. That said...

The big issue I have with your analysis is that Allen footwork isn't bad... in fact on most throws it's quite good so long as he targets his primary in rhythm. If he doesn't, or can't, then Allen tends to twist his torso rather than move his feet in the direction of the ball's new destination. Put another way his feet are not connected to his eyes and that creates problems. He's much better off on the run.

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38 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

Or they missed on coaching a kid up?

Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

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53 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

..31 other teams that didn't draft Kizer.(GM)They also don't let Kizer see the field.(Hue).it was that easy. So QB by default wins a doughnut hole O - 16.. We certainly own it     

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Yup... no guarantee that Kizer makes it with a full time QB coach and OC and time, but the kid had no chance under 3-Hat Hue...

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57 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Yup... no guarantee that Kizer makes it with a full time QB coach and OC and time, but the kid had no chance under 3-Hat Hue...

Coach up plan A - OK kid we know you had two years as QB in college and we were a 1-15 team last year and we have no real WRs and you will lose your #1 OL guy (oh didn't know that yet).....so here's the ball and we'll figure it out as we go. Now go win one for the Gipper!

Plan B - OK who has Plan B? Nobody did one? :lol:

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You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

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10 minutes ago, jrb12711 said:

You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

WSS

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1 minute ago, jrb12711 said:

You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

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9 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

How was Ben's accuracy before the draft?

Good enough that he was pretty easy to see coming...

Pushing 70% in the early 2000's was a much bigger deal than it is today.

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Miami (OH)         854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3
2001 Miami (OH) MAC FR QB 12 241 381 63.3 3105 8.1 7.9 25 13 146.5
2002 Miami (OH) MAC SO QB 12 271 428 63.3 3238 7.6 7.4 22 11 138.7
*2003 Miami (OH) MAC JR QB 14 342 495 69.1 4486 9.1 9.6 37 10 165.8

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4 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Good enough that he was pretty easy to see coming...

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Miami (OH)         854 1304 65.5 10829 8.3 8.4 84 34 151.3
2001 Miami (OH) MAC FR QB 12 241 381 63.3 3105 8.1 7.9 25 13 146.5
2002 Miami (OH) MAC SO QB 12 271 428 63.3 3238 7.6 7.4 22 11 138.7
*2003 Miami (OH) MAC JR QB 14 342 495 69.1 4486 9.1 9.6 37 10 165.8

Exactly. Which is where the comparisons toJosh Allen cease to align.

WSS

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13 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

Right, but unless I'm mistaken the only one AFTER ben you noted was Bortles (meh) Flacco (who I would argue isn't in this conversation) and cam who I missed. So wentz and cam leads you to two QBs over a decade who fit the "big and burly" mold like ben did out of college. To me that's more than a coincidence and shows a trend of where the nfl has gone the past 10, 12 years. 

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55 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

There's always been "big QBs" in the league who have been their franchise's guy for periods of time...

In the old NFL Roman Gabriel springs to mind... Joe Kapp and Bobby Douglas as well, although the latters' skills were marginal.

More recently? At 6'4, 260+ Dante Culpepper may be the best example.

Today? Cam obviously... and there are a number of "large" QBs that don't play all that "big"... e.g., Flacco, Bortles, Rivers...

Yes,  and oh so many of those BIG QBs have been long tall piles of suckitude:

Jamarcus Russell  6/6  260

Leinert 6/5 230

Vince Young  6/5 235

Josh Feeman  6/6 245

Weeden 6/4 230

Tannehill 6/4 230

EJ Manuel 6/5 240

Paxton Lynch  6'7 245

and those are just first rounders.

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43 minutes ago, jrb12711 said:

Right, but unless I'm mistaken the only one AFTER ben you noted was Bortles (meh) Flacco (who I would argue isn't in this conversation) and cam who I missed. So wentz and cam leads you to two QBs over a decade who fit the "big and burly" mold like ben did out of college. To me that's more than a coincidence and shows a trend of where the nfl has gone the past 10, 12 years. 

What do you consider "burley"....all the guys in my above post are at least 6/4  and 230.  

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20 hours ago, gumby73 said:

We talked late last year about Kizer, so we all miss. Or they missed on coaching a kid up? Am thinking the card reads Darnold..Unless Haley & Hue want to take on the Rosen mind challenge game..agree on Allen's potential, but Hue may never see it in time..maybe Dorsey does?   

Hated Kizer from the get-go, thought he sucked at ND, and he didn't disappoint me on the Browns. 

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2 hours ago, jrb12711 said:

You know someone was talking to mr the other day and it really got me thinking.

We keep saying we want a guy like big Ben, and the comparisons to Allen are obvious. But when you think about it, since ben and before Wentz how much guys like big Ben have actually turned out to be franchise guys? It's an interesting thought experiment cause in my head I got no one. I think, as I've noted before, is a signal of how the game is changing. 

It was mentioned previously but probably the best comparison to Allen in the pros is Cam Newton. Though Camshaft is 1" taller and 25 pounds heavier. Career 58.5% completions and 85 QBR.  

As Tour pointed out (and I knew all along) comparing Roethlisberger's accuracy to Allen's in college is a joke. If Josh was completing his passes at a 65% clip, he'd be in the Andrew Luck lock #1 category. 

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21 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Hated Kizer from the get-go, thought he sucked at ND, and he didn't disappoint me on the Browns. 

And I thought both Kizer and Kessler were way overreached by a couple of rounds each. Hue was an idiot. And whomever went along with it was too.

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18 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Hated Kizer from the get-go, thought he sucked at ND, and he didn't disappoint me on the Browns. 

and you might be right but the caution light came on when Dorsey thinks Hue needs talent. Offensive talent clearly. Am more disappointed with Hue's use of Kizer with no other choice behind him. Falls on Sashi too. We'll see who GB tries to slide to PS Kizer or his twin from UCLA Hunley  

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1 minute ago, gumby73 said:

and you might be right but the caution light came on when Dorsey thinks Hue needs talent. Offensive talent clearly. Am more disappointed with Hue's use of Kizer with no other choice behind him. Falls on Sashi too. We'll see who GB tries to slide to PS Kizer or his twin from UCLA Hunley  

It would be pretty amazing for the Packers to try and slide a second round pick to the practice squad. Or does it mean Hue and whoever drafted him in the second round should have waited until the 4th? It's the same crazy thing I'm seeing with Allen. Josh's one special trait has him being touted around 90 slots too high. 

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Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate. 

 

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3 hours ago, jrb12711 said:

Right, but unless I'm mistaken the only one AFTER ben you noted was Bortles (meh) Flacco (who I would argue isn't in this conversation) and cam who I missed. So wentz and cam leads you to two QBs over a decade who fit the "big and burly" mold like ben did out of college. To me that's more than a coincidence and shows a trend of where the nfl has gone the past 10, 12 years. 

Not following... what trend are you referring to?

Today Ben's pretty much alone when it comes to a history of defenders hanging off of him as he throws. Even the Camster goes down if he's wrapped up. Culpepper was very much in the Ben mold (or Ben's in his). Wentz (who I overlooked) may be there, but he has more elusiveness that Ben ever did and may be more like a young Dante.

The other QBs with size don't play that big. Actually surprised me to see Rivers is 6'5 and 230-ish. And that's the vein in which I mentioned Flacco and Bortles.

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6 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

  1. For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.
  2. For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.
  3. For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.
  4. For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.
  5. For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate. 

 

Been discussed piecemeal, but not as an organized experiment to my recollection...

  1. Rosen's concussion has been more of a universal thing while personality has been ~32%.
  2. Darnold? At least for me it's general mechanics.
  3. Allen... for me a combo of issues that don't add up to NFL-grade QB.
  4. Baker... height plus a hint of a$$hole.
  5. Jackson... a running QB.

 

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3 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

 

.......What I get is:

 

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate. 

 

YES, we have a BINGO! Welcome to the 2018 NFL QB Draft, but with all of the teams in the hunt for warm bodies wearing the small uniform numbers they will go quick.....I guess.

Ironically it is a pretty loaded draft outside of that. Too bad the BROWNS have to waste, blow, throw away use a #1 pick on one.

I need a new dead horse, mine has turned into dust.  :lol:

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11 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

YES, we have a BINGO! Welcome to the 2018 NFL QB Draft, but with all of the teams in the hunt for warm bodies wearing the small uniform numbers they will go quick.....I guess.

Ironically it is a pretty loaded draft outside of that. Too bad the BROWNS have to waste, blow, throw away use a #1 pick on one.

I need a new dead horse, mine has turned into dust.  :lol:

Here ya go!

image.jpeg.60db1acc6aec891e3ebb76093756355f.jpeg

Mike

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On 4/13/2018 at 5:55 PM, Tour2ma said:

Who had time to coach him up or down or sideways?

Precisely. That's like hearing the WRs with dropsies entering the draft are just going to get coached up in Cleveland all the way up until our next example of "easier said than done" with Corey Coleman.

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4 minutes ago, Flugel said:

Precisely. That's like hearing the WRs with dropsies entering the draft are just going to get coached up in Cleveland all the way up until our next example of "easier said than done" with Corey Coleman.

Yes and is there and cure at the professional level when you're wide open looking directly at the quarterback and the ball hits you in the hands with a chance to beat a division rival and possibly avoid a winless season.

I'll give you two seconds to think it over. D'OH!

 

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13 hours ago, Canton Mike said:

 

image.jpeg.60db1acc6aec891e3ebb76093756355f.jpeg

 

Thanks Mike, I need a Dead Horse..We took Coleman at #15..We took Cam Terd'ing at #19..We got a 5th rounder from KC trading Erving..Is trading Coleman worth biting that kind of bullet? Sign me up maybe if could get any kind 3rd? where do we fold are tents & keep Coleman? (topic alert..Josh Allen what do you think?)   

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20 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate. 

 

It wasn't that long ego (pre-hindsight 20/20) there was a HUGE "Fail for Cardale" contingent when he was only 3 starts old leading the Buckeyes to a National Championship.  Outside of the  enormous difference in competition faced, he had a lot of similarities to Josh Allen in the ideal arm strength but accuracy issues.  Cardale wrist flicked some of the most beautiful deep passes I've seen without the need for ideal feet/mechanics at least within that short span.  

For those with their hearts set on the bionic arm with no need to worry about accuracy kind of QB - we can prolly get Cardale in the very near future at the NFL price equivalent of an Aldi's box of Cheerios if this is all we want again.  He's also used to backing up Tyrod Taylor.  In the whole scheme of things - is it really any more outrageous than people refusing to bigger picture why Josh Allen has never exceeded mediocrity in high school (as depicted in Major DI scholarship offers) and in college?  Now Allen is being pushed all the way up to upper first round consideration/temptation where bad NFL teams are allegedly offering him way easier success?  Make sense?  It shouldn't. And if he's a project somebody has to wait a year or 2 before there's any comfort starting him - is he really any different than Cardale?  Based on what I've seen, coaching up accuracy from someone that has never been accurate is about as easy as seeing a tiger change its stripes. 

Like him or laugh at him, the biggest thing I ever saw Mel Kiper get right was "beware the last minute risers that surface especially when the football stops being played." 

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45 minutes ago, mjp28 said:

Yes and is there and cure at the professional level when you're wide open looking directly at the quarterback and the ball hits you in the hands with a chance to beat a division rival and possibly avoid a winless season.

I'll give you two seconds to think it over. D'OH!

 

I didn't need 2 seconds any more than you needed 2 seconds.  Unfortunately, the people paying him first round cake are giving him 3 years because 2-3 surviving ego's in our brain trust that chose him instead of Mike Thomas want to prove something they haven't been able to yet. That being the case, I'm not the guy you need to play "Let go my ego" with here.

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18 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Speaking of thought experiments, I’ve been floating this one around the office. Apologies if it’s been discussed, I’ve been gone.

This is a year where there’s really no consensus #1 but four or five potential first round guys with either great resumes or abnormal physical tools. What is holding each prospect back from being the consensus #1?

What I get is:

For Rosen, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for his personality and concussion concerns.

For Darnold, he’d be the consensus #1 if not for an elongated windup and a less-than-stellar final year.

For Allen, he’d be the consensus #1 if his career completion percentage was 5% better.

For Mayfield, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were three inches taller.

For Jackson, he’d be the consensus #1 if he were heavier and slightly more accurate. 

 

That's why I like Darnold. Which of those concerns is the easiest to fix at the pro level?

No one is getting taller. No one's personality is going away or is getting a clean concussion chart. Accuracy is one of the hardest improvements to make when you jump to the pro level (I think we can all agree at some level on that ... my first foray in this thread, I assume that is the core of all this discussion).

Darnold needs some tinkering, some ball security improvement ... Ok ... Meet Hue Jackson, Todd Haley, Mike Zampese, Drew Stanton ... watch Tyrod Taylor, one of the best ball control QBs in the league for a season.

Darnold is a gunslinger with a gunslinger mentality ... NFL coaches' job to refine that without losing what you like about him in the first place. He's got a lot of Favre in him. Cool.

Personality: He's a dirt dawg ... teammates will love him.

Health: Pretty clean

Accuracy: 65% at Major program

Size: Tall and thick

In my opinion, he is the cleanest prospect, and, also in my opinion, the Browns are going to call his name #1.

We are breathing a lot of smoke right now, but by the day before the draft it will be written on the walls.   Best QB on the board.

Zombo

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