From nobody to the top of the first round of the draft - Josh Allen

[mjp28]

13 minutes ago, hoorta said:

Yes, and Maurice Jones-Drew on NFLN had the Browns taking Saquon Barkley at #1, totally passing on a QB. Charlie Casserly and Jeremiah still say Darnold. Mel? Has been mocking Allen to the Browns for a month. If Depodesta has any input at all left in Berea, it will be anyone but Allen. If you bothered to look at the advanced metrics link, Josh is about seventh in QB rank.

I don't think MJD has a grip on this draft thing.  

MGD? 

[The Gipper]

9 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

If we don't take Allen, Mel Kiper may be the only person on earth who will be more upset with the Browns than cal.

 

Unsurprisingly Mel also took Allen for us in his "Grade A Draft" out yesterday.

His rationale was that we need to "swing for the fences". Yes, he actually said that.

My out loud response to the TV was, "Guys who swing for the fences tend to strike out a lot."

Again, I swear it is because he is a Ravens fan and he wants the Browns to continually strike out, as you say.

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, 7moses7 said:

Did someone say Baker Mayfield?🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.  

2 hours ago, 7moses7 said:

I’ll take QB  A. 

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department. 

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.      

[hoorta]

45 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Again, I swear it is because he (Kiper) is a Ravens fan and he wants the Browns to continually strike out, as you say.

This time of year I always like to remind folks of Mel's famous pronouncement draft day many years ago...   MMMMMMUUUUUSSSSSTTTT draft Hart Lee Dykes.  

[The Gipper]

49 minutes ago, hoorta said:

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.  

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department. 

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.      

Nick Stevens is no midget.  6'3"  215.   Could put on 10 pounds.   But, apparently does not have a bazooka arm.

Overview

Stevens is highly-respected by teammates for his ability to fight through adversity and come out on the other side as a productive, consistent quarterback. He lacks the build and arm talent of a draftable quarterback, but he does check the accuracy box. He should make it into a camp where he has an outside shot of landing a QB3 spot if he finds the perfect fit.

Strengths

• Team captain who was able to "grow as a leader" over the past two seasons according to his head coach
• Has experience working from under center with pro-style passing concepts
• Throws with timing outside the hashes to make up for limited arm talent
• Ball placement and accuracy are good
• Plus touch on fades near the goal line
• Throws receivers away from trouble
• Mentally tough
• Benched after atrocious first game of 2016 and has thrown 48 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions since then
• Weaknesses
• Skinny frame with spindly legs
• Not built for NFL pocket violence
• Doesn't carry NFL arm strength
• Unable to generate drive velocity with lower half and everything floats
• Threw poor ratio of 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions on intermediate and deep throws this year
• Instinctive defensive backs will slam his passing windows shut
• Inaccurate on deep sideline throws
• Below average athlete
• Can get happy feet when early reads are covered up
• Sounds Cody Kesslerish to me

[LondonBrown]

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence. 

[The Gipper]

6 minutes ago, LondonBrown said:

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence. 

You act as if the fuyucking money were coming out of your pocket.  Who cares about the money as long as the players produce....and it does not hamstring us otherwise...which this does not.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

3 hours ago, hoorta said:

I'll keep those barf emojis in mind if we draft Allen.  

Yes, I get it, Allen has prototypical size and ++ arm strength. The perfect guy to have on your roster with time running out able to launch a Hail Mary from your own 25 yard line. Let's just overlook the - - in the accuracy department. 

If Allen was 65% in the completion department he'd be the consensus #1. OTOH- the guy you're hating on, Baker Mayfield would be the consensus #1 if he was 2" taller.      

That was my original argument for Mayfield and against Allen.

Now I’m flip flopping it. You can improve accuracy, depending on the circumstances. You can’t get taller.

Im a Rosen guy first and foremost. I’m a Darnold guy second and...soremost? Allen is my penultimate prospect of the top 5 TBH.

But at this point, I’m fine with taking Allen if that’s the QB Dorsey wants the most and if he legitimately gets the Rodgers treatment.

 

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

8 minutes ago, LondonBrown said:

I’ve never really imagined a scenario where we take Allen but after the commitment to Landry today there’s no way on earth this is happening now.

Drafting Josh Allen and his big arm just after paying all that money to a WR that catches short passes would be a sackable offence. 

Signing a top ten receiver has no impact on what QB we’re going to take in the draft. None whatsoever.

[syd]

allen just seems to have that drive to be a great QB in the league and I believe he would be a great fit sitting behind eli for a couple of years

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

That was my original argument for Mayfield and against Allen.

Now I’m flip flopping it. You can improve accuracy, depending on the circumstances. You can’t get taller.

Im a Rosen guy first and foremost. I’m a Darnold guy second and...soremost? Allen is my penultimate prospect of the top 5 TBH.

But at this point, I’m fine with taking Allen if that’s the QB Dorsey wants the most and if he legitimately gets the Rodgers treatment.

 

Like we'll have a choice in who the Browns draft.    My order now is Darnold- Mayfield- Rosen, and hell no to Allen or Jackson. Should Dorsey take Allen he'll have a lot shorter honeymoon in Cleveland if Allen busts. Have to admit in my book- John has done little wrong since he's taken over. Started off on the right foot sending Kenny Britt packing almost immediately.  

[Tour2ma]

1 hour ago, syd said:

allen just seems to have that drive to be a great QB in the league and I believe he would be a great fit sitting behind eli for a couple of years

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

 

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

[syd]

5 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

 

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

wow Phipps that's harsh man

[gumby73]

found this as a good read coming out of Denver (long'ish) on Mayfield..my believ' is Elway has moved on from Allen also..Next Baker? well ya better get to #2.. https://www.milehighreport.com/2018/4/9/17213706/baker-mayfield-scouting-report  

[Dutch Oven]

52 minutes ago, syd said:

wow Phipps that's harsh man

It really is.

Apparently Paul Warfield for Mike Phipps didn't work out well for the Orange and Brown.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

1 hour ago, LondonBrown said:

It’s the type of receiver in this instance that matters. Some of you can’t see past your nose on this, just pro bowl and good Hanse = amazing player. 

 

And some of you are puking out the same ESPN garbage repeatedly with no context or thought behind it.

We currently don’t have any reliable receiver on our roster whatsoever. While it’s an overpayment for a typical slot receiver,  the benefit of a reliable handed, dynamic receiver to a young QB cannot be understated. 85% of passes in the NFL are thrown within 20 yards from the LOS.  Jarvis is one of the best within 20 yards of the LOS. 

The view that “oh Jarvis can only run short routes, therefore he’s of no use to a guy who possesses the ability to throw downfield” is shortsighted. 

[syd]

6 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

It really is.

Apparently Paul Warfield for Mike Phipps didn't work out well for the Orange and Brown.

did haslem go back in time and make that trade ?

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, syd said:

wow Phipps that's harsh man

I remember it like it was yesterday. Allen being Phipps II is a truly scary thought..... Should I start praying for Divine Intervention?   

5 minutes ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

And some of you are puking out the same ESPN garbage repeatedly with no context or thought behind it.

We currently don’t have any reliable receiver on our roster whatsoever. While it’s an overpayment for a typical slot receiver,  the benefit of a reliable handed, dynamic receiver to a young QB cannot be understated. 85% of passes in the NFL are thrown within 20 yards from the LOS.  Jarvis is one of the best within 20 yards of the LOS. 

The view that “oh Jarvis can only run short routes, therefore he’s of no use to a guy who possesses the ability to throw downfield” is shortsighted. 

In regard to the above...  Landry is a huge positive addition. But back to Josh. I understand the "wow"factor of Allen's arm- but it takes more than that to be a pro bowl level qb in the NFL. That's what we all want right?  It doesn't impress me he was throwing 80 yard rainbows at his pro day. I'm pretty sure I've never seen an 80 yard in the air completion in the 60 or so years I've been watching the NFL.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

1 hour ago, hoorta said:

I remember it like it was yesterday. Allen being Phipps II is a truly scary thought..... Should I start praying for Divine Intervention?   

In regard to the above...  Landry is a huge positive addition. But back to Josh. I understand the "wow"factor of Allen's arm- but it takes more than that to be a pro bowl level qb in the NFL. That's what we all want right?  It doesn't impress me he was throwing 80 yard rainbows at his pro day. I'm pretty sure I've never seen an 80 yard in the air completion in the 60 or so years I've been watching the NFL.

Honestly, I don’t care about pro days. I don’t watch them unless I have to.

The one thing I keep coming back to with Allen is that his one main issue is probably the most coachable issue of all of them. 

Darnold’s delivery isn’t going to get more compact and he, too, struggles with overcompensation and bad reads at times. Mayfield isn’t going to get taller. Jackson won’t put any significant weight on his frame. And Rosen...well, he’s just fantastic and I hope we draft him. 

Allen is really messing with me, to be honest. I see shades of Roethlisberger and Rodgers in him. Then I’ll see shades of Kizer or Boller.

At the end of the day, the circumstances of where he’s drafted will dictate which one he becomes more than anything he’ll do himself.

[hoorta]

16 minutes ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Honestly, I don’t care about pro days. I don’t watch them unless I have to.

The one thing I keep coming back to with Allen is that his one main issue is probably the most coachable issue of all of them. 

Darnold’s delivery isn’t going to get more compact and he, too, struggles with overcompensation and bad reads at times. Mayfield isn’t going to get taller. Jackson won’t put any significant weight on his frame. And Rosen...well, he’s just fantastic and I hope we draft him. 

Allen is really messing with me, to be honest. I see shades of Roethlisberger and Rodgers in him. Then I’ll see shades of Kizer or Boller.

At the end of the day, the circumstances of where he’s drafted will dictate which one he becomes more than anything he’ll do himself.

The bold is what's scaring me- and at this point in my life- I'm very risk averse. Any of the other three's flaws scare me less.  

At this point, you can't be sure of anything you're hearing. Is it all just a heavy blanket of smoke to disguise Dorsey & Company's true intentions? Plenty of stuff from NFLN ,CBS and others about Allen linked to the Browns. BUT- Jackson (another guy I really don't want) doesn't even make his visit until today, so how can it possibly be a done deal? 

[gumby73]

8 hours ago, Tim Couch Pulls Out said:

Allen is really messing with me, to be honest. I see shades of Roethlisberger and Rodgers in him. Then I’ll see shades of Kizer or Boller.

pls, put these Qb traits in order of importance to you 1)accuracy 2)field vision 3)poise/leadership 4)arm strength 5)pocket presence/escapability 6)anticipation 7)mechanics 8)size...I see Allen only winning out on the field at only #4/#8.. I also see why you like Rosen, if we can surpass injury concerns. Size to me ranks last considering other traits..Allen,Jackson maybe Darnold, fit the mold of sitting a year..Mayfield has not sat for no-one in his life.(with off field concerns) .Rosen I see no way we could sit him a year..thanks for your QB opinions here..  

[Flugel]

9 hours ago, hoorta said:

I remember it like it was yesterday. Allen being Phipps II is a truly scary thought..... Should I start praying for Divine Intervention?  

Divine intervention has put a lot of GREAT QBs on our door step that our FOs have repeatedly kicked off the step.  If they ever made a t-shirt out of that one - it would be the size of a tent.

After seeing us overthink the QB position in so many times, it would be an epic disappointment to see us go after a QB that was just average in high school and college (with accuracy issues) only to pretend the pro game will be way easier.  This reality keeps getting lost in all the fictional workouts indoors without pass rushers and corners.  When you go to an NFL franchise not used to winning, you're going to face pass rushers and corners regardless of what the Josh Allen fans are trying to finger paint.

[LogicIsForSquares]

11 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

 

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

Every year we end up having to hear this nonsense. Do you think the agents put these kids up to it? Because every time it sounds like when the homeschool kid tries to curse in front of his buddies.

[Tour2ma]

Homeschool kids have buddies?

I hear ya... no idea if this is the agent, but I'd hope it was.

[The Gipper]

15 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

lol... almost did not see what you did there... but for the lil spellcheck squiggly under "eli", I might have missed it.

 

Saw an Allen interview where he came off well talking about his growing up on a farm/ranch and all... and then it turned to football and all the talk about not having any Div 1 offers... none. Then going JuCo and getting one offer from Wyoming. Again all fine...

And then he tried to go all Brady... said how he "played with a chip on his shoulder"... wanted to "destroy" every school who passed over him... a/k/a "every school". It rang so fukiin hollow the ringing is still in my ears a day later.

This kid has the passion of the oatmeal I had for breakfast... less after I sprinkle on the oatmeal.

He's Mike Phipps 2.0.

This^   though it may be more like 3.0.....because we had 2.0 playing for us last year.

[mjp28]

12 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

This^   though it may be more like 3.0.....because we had 2.0 playing for us last year.

Yes.....but we'll never be able to say a pass from Phipps to Pitts again!

[calfoxwc]

it's really windy and 105 in the greenhouse, have ten trays planted, and ...

whatcha gonna do, when Josh Allen doesn't last til #2 ?

HOO, HOO, HOO !

going back to planting.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-all-signs-pointing-to-browns-taking-josh-allen-no-1-overall-right-now/

https://www.myajc.com/sports/football/all-signs-pointing-toward-cleveland-selecting-josh-allen/70flScqz86y7GS6TgG4wxK/

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000926403/article/josh-allenbrowns-talk-is-real-aaron-donaldkhalil-mack-debate

https://www.si.com/nfl/video/2018/04/10/josh-allen-nfl-draft-cleveland-browns

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

4 hours ago, gumby73 said:

pls, put these Qb traits in order of importance to you 1)accuracy 2)field vision 3)poise/leadership 4)arm strength 5)pocket presence/escapability 6)anticipation 7)mechanics 8)size...I see Allen only winning out on the field at only #4/#8.. I also see why you like Rosen, if we can surpass injury concerns. Size to me ranks last considering other traits..Allen,Jackson maybe Darnold, fit the mold of sitting a year..Mayfield has not sat for no-one in his life.(with off field concerns) .Rosen I see no way we could sit him a year..thanks for your QB opinions here..  

I wouldn't include accuracy in that list solely because accuracy is a sum of multiple parts - field vision, arm strength, anticipation and mechanics are all variables that contribute to accuracy. That's the issue I have with people who cling so hard to the "ACCURACY IS THE ONLY IMPORTANT QUALITY" argument.

Take three guys with the same college stats and let them throw at 25 stationary targets on a football field. They all three hit the same number of targets. One guy, however, is a QB with better anticipation. One guy is a QB with better field vision. And the third guy is a QB with better arm strength. Which one is the "more accurate" one?  

If a QB is labeled as inaccurate, I want to know why. Does he not see the field? Does he not anticipate windows? Does he not have the arm strength to get the ball there?

 In Allen's case, his inaccuracy stems from four main causes IMO: 

   - situation

   - playcalling/scheme

   - footwork

   - and his decision-making.

 

Situation

I'll start with this because it's the lowest hanging fruit. The top three players in receptions graduated after the 2016 season, giving Allen an entirely new stable of pass-catchers. This isn't an excuse so much as it's just context. He was still a 56% passer before they left, and its not like they dropped an inordinate amount of balls in 2017 either. Quite the contrary. But it's still a variable nonetheless, as he was throwing to freshmen and sophomores. Further, both of his starting tackles were freshmen in 2017 and that line was...well, it wasn't very good. Not an excuse, but context.

Footwork

I'll move to footwork because it's a quick one. The good news (IMO) is that footwork is probably the easiest mechanical issue to fix. It's not like fixing a wonky delivery. It's not like changing a release point. It's not like shortening a windup.  This should yield a small positive return in overall accuracy as it will enable him to help deliver the ball to the place he's actually intending for it to go. 

Decision Making

The bad news is that decision-making in itself is like accuracy, there's a wealth of variables involved. To some extent, this can be improved with time and comfortability, but I mean...he'll never be a 65% passer. The kid will always be Favre-esque in his mentality. 

Playcalling/ Scheme

It's not a cop-out to say that Allen wasn't helped by his playcalling or the scheme in which he was in. I think it's been said that just by adding one more screen pass per game, it would have bumped his completion percentage up to 59%. I haven't seen passing breakdowns in terms of playcall types, but I'd venture a guess that Wyoming's offense had fewer of those high-percentage passing plays than some of the others. I can only recall a few off hand. Then again, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

But it does go to show that there's at least some stock to be put into the whole "he wasn't set up for success" narrative. His numbers will naturally be lower than those of his contemporaries just due to this fact alone.

This article is a good look at the philosophy of what kind of program Bohl is attempting to build Wyoming into, which is slightly reflective of the offensive philosophy Vigen brings. It's a tough, hard-nosed, more traditional-style offense that's rooted in WCO philosophies and brings in a little of the Tom Osbornesque power run, I-form. Vigen's general philosophy is a controlled passing game and a methodical, 10-15 play drive that eats up clock and kills the defense over time.

In all honesty, the Wyoming offense and Josh Allen theoretically don't make for a good fit. Allen isn't a great anticipatory thrower. He's not terrible, but it's certainly not one of his top skills. IMO Allen skillset would likely be better utilized in a slightly more downfield passing attack with heavy integration of RPO's - a la the Philly philosophy as of late (I know it's en vogue to emulate the most recent SB winner.) 

My conclusion

I don't think Allen is inherently inaccurate. I also don't think he'll ever be extremely accurate. I also don't think that's a problem.

Cam Newton is not an accurate NFL QB. To be frank, he wasn't an accurate NCAA QB either, he was a big play QB on an stacked team running a Malzahn hurry up offense that people hadn't caught on to yet. Cam Newton has found a way to succeed despite his career 58% percentage by being a large, athletically gifted, strong armed big football boy who makes big football boy plays from time to time.

That's Allen's career, in my opinion. 

 

 

Also, I didn't answer your question - but I would go:

- Field Vision 

- Pocket Presence/ Escapability

- Anticipation 

- Size 

 - Poise/Leadership

- Arm Strength 

- Mechanics

 

 

 

[gumby73]

TCPO thanks for the time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

19 minutes ago, gumby73 said:

TCPO thanks for time put into this and your always our captain of our little QB room here..Most here read many opinions on Allen & all the QB's. But none like your own opinion on Allen.. It's time the Browns get the QB position right..keep us updated on your QB thoughts,and thanks again  

Appreciate it but I’d honestly defer to Tour when it come to QB’s.

I miss more than I hit.

Id love for us to grab a potential guy like Allen and let him hit, but I dont think we are really in a scenario to do that. I’d still much rather us take Rosen or Darnold.