Blowing up the QB rankings

[TexasAg1969]

8 hours ago, Gunz41 said:

After reading this thread, I noticed a certain someone flip flopping. That's it. That is how the genius uses to say he gets everything right. I remember in another thread he said that the top QB was Mayfield. So before the draft, Allen, Darnold, and Rosen will all be mentioned as the top guy by the same person

He has learned the art of deflection away from his buddy Paxton Lynch. He got burned by picking just that one so now it's cover all bases.

[The Gipper]

11 hours ago, Mark O said:

It's impossible to be wrong when you back every single player as being the best player in the draft.

Or then turn around and say:   "I told you all that this guy would be crap...I predicted it."

It would be like me saying:    "I told you that the Browns should have drafted a skinny QB out of Michigan as the #1 overall pick in the draft instead of that Zumba instructor of a DLineman out of Penn St.."

When....the fact is....he probably said qabout 2007  beforehand:  We should trade up to draft that monster QB out of LSU....and not waste our time with like an OT out of Wisconsin at #3....trade up and get the best talent".  That would have been more his style.

Fair to say?

[Gunz41]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

Or then turn around and say:   "I told you all that this guy would be crap...I predicted it."

It would be like me saying:    "I told you that the Browns should have drafted a skinny QB out of Michigan as the #1 overall pick in the draft instead of that Zumba instructor of a DLineman out of Penn St.."

When....the fact is....he probably said qabout 2007  beforehand:  We should trade up to draft that monster QB out of LSU....and not waste our time with like an OT out of Wisconsin at #3....trade up and get the best talent".  That would have been more his style.

Fair to say?

Yep. 

And then certain players are the biggest bust in a decade before they step on the field, while others who have been in league longer and seen the field need and deserve more time. 

AND even when wrong multiple times about the most decorated QB of all time  (Brady), it's still I was right about him. If he does anything, it's the other team being cheated and when he loses, he's done I was right. 1 out of 5 is good average right? That's 100% accuracy. 

[Louisville Slugger]

walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard

Walter football has Lamar Jackson the #1 QB in the class and the #10 overall prospect. 

After that it's Rosen 11, Darnold 12, Allen 21, and Mayfield all the way down at 49. 

I don't agree with the rankings but it's nice to be the only one in the Jackson corner

[hoorta]

6 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard

Walter football has Lamar Jackson the #1 QB in the class and the #10 overall prospect. 

After that it's Rosen 11, Darnold 12, Allen 21, and Mayfield all the way down at 49. 

I don't agree with the rankings but it's nice to be the only one in the Jackson corner

LOL, neither do I. Um, that's not Walter- it's Charlie Campbell's ranking.  Here's Walter's QB rankings . http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php

FWIW, both Charlie and Walter have Jackson going #28 to the Steelers. I won't argue with Gipper anymore about rankings\ mock draft. To me it's inconceivable you can rate a QB prospect #1 at his position, and then post a mock draft where 3-4 other QBs get drafted before him.  http://walterfootball.com/draft2018charlie.php   If you're going to do that- put a disclaimer on your rankings saying it's based on future potential.  

[The Gipper]

38 minutes ago, hoorta said:

LOL, neither do I. Um, that's not Walter- it's Charlie Campbell's ranking.  Here's Walter's QB rankings . http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php

FWIW, both Charlie and Walter have Jackson going #28 to the Steelers. I won't argue with Gipper anymore about rankings\ mock draft. To me it's inconceivable you can rate a QB prospect #1 at his position, and then post a mock draft where 3-4 other QBs get drafted before him.  http://walterfootball.com/draft2018charlie.php   If you're going to do that- put a disclaimer on your rankings saying it's based on future potential.  

Isn't EVERY ranking and mock draft based on future potential? 

And I am right in saying that basically EVERY publication fails to follow its draft prospect rankings in their Mock drafts. Because they are generally done by different writers employed by the same company.

HELL.....even when the Mocks and the rankings are done by the same writer......they don't follow their own rankings.   Look at any Kiper or McShay ranking....then look at their mocks.   Nothing alike!

[Louisville Slugger]

Mock drafts are about rumors and trying to project where the player will land. 

Lamar is obviously a unique prospect. If someone thinks they can continue to develop him as a passer, they would be crazy not to pick him up. 

[The Gipper]

Just now, Louisville Slugger said:

Mock drafts are about rumors and trying to project where the player will land. 

Lamar is obviously a unique prospect. If someone thinks they can continue to develop him as a passer, they would be crazy not to pick him up. 

True.....in the 3rd round.

[tiamat63]

3 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Mock drafts are about rumors and trying to project where the player will land. 

Lamar is obviously a unique prospect. If someone thinks they can continue to develop him as a passer, they would be crazy not to pick him up. 

What makes him so unique? It's not like we haven't seen QB's with his skill set try to make it in the NFL before. 

 

That said, if it means Lamar going to Pittsburgh then by all that is holy, I hope he goes 1st round.  They're due for a bad stretch of drafts.

[Louisville Slugger]

He broke a bunch of ncaa records. Mike Vick is the closest player that could do what he does and even Mike Vick said he's better. 

Go do your scouting on him and you'll see most of his problems are pretty coachable. 

[tiamat63]

1 hour ago, Louisville Slugger said:

He broke a bunch of ncaa records. Mike Vick is the closest player that could do what he does and even Mike Vick said he's better. 

Go do your scouting on him and you'll see most of his problems are pretty coachable. 

Oh I've watched him in passing... didn't see Vick at all.  Reminds me of Vince in a way though.

[Gunz41]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Isn't EVERY ranking and mock draft based on future potential? 

And I am right in saying that basically EVERY publication fails to follow its draft prospect rankings in their Mock drafts. Because they are generally done by different writers employed by the same company.

HELL.....even when the Mocks and the rankings are done by the same writer......they don't follow their own rankings.   Look at any Kiper or McShay ranking....then look at their mocks.   Nothing alike!

I generally think that they go by the position ranking though (aside from AN, SOMETIMES). So even if the Nelson kid is rated as the top player on the big board, they don't have him going #1.

Unless I am mistaken, which is certainly possible, the mock drafts try to predict what a team is going to do and needs. So while you may have Darnold as 1, and someone else has Rosen as 1, and Slugger has Jackson as 1, Kiper may think the Browns will take Allen or Mayfield. People may think these guys are idiots, and they may be, but a lot of it is for entertainment purposes, and while possible idiots, they have A LOT of access to the teams

 

 

[Gunz41]

25 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Oh I've watched him in passing... didn't see Vick at all.  Reminds me of Vince in a way though.

Yea, I dont see Vick either. Michael Vick had 2 issues, one the dog thing and 2 accuracy. He may have had the strongest arm EVER in the NFL. He just didn't know where it was going

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Isn't EVERY ranking and mock draft based on future potential? 

And I am right in saying that basically EVERY publication fails to follow its draft prospect rankings in their Mock drafts. Because they are generally done by different writers employed by the same company.

HELL.....even when the Mocks and the rankings are done by the same writer......they don't follow their own rankings.   Look at any Kiper or McShay ranking....then look at their mocks.   Nothing alike!

 The one I referred to Gip ranking\ mock was done by the same guy. Charlie Campbell- Walter Football, sorry- wrong on that count. Sure, the reason rankings\ mocks get screwed up and skewed is to a large part the mocks go out the window on rankings because of the huge premium for Quarterbacks for teams that don't have them.  Jeremiah has Darnold and Rosen ranked #6 & #7, but I wouldn't bet against them going 1-2 in the draft. 

& please, will you kindly admit that the CBS ranking of Randolph as the #1 QB prospect is an outlier? Sure, some rankings go seriously wrong- but most of the time, they're at least close to how the draft position actually falls. That doesn't mean a guy ranked & drafted low can't succeed. Hindsight is always 20\20- you can bet that 2007 the rankings and draft order there would have been a lot different. A lot of those rankings go on measurables and college production. Why IMHO Allen is ranked so high- he can throw the ball out of the stadium.   I'll trust Jeremiah- who actually worked in an NFL teams scouting department- where Mason isn't even in his top 50 prospects, over some guy at CBS with a keyboard and Internet access.  

[mjp28]

Ever read one of those bookie "hot sheets" BEFORE a horse race? Yeah they all have winners and can't miss prospects too.....not much difference in the NFL.

BUT it's so much fun to speculate and do mock drafts.

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Mock drafts are about rumors and trying to project where the player will land. 

Lamar is obviously a unique prospect. If someone thinks they can continue to develop him as a passer, they would be crazy not to pick him up. 

As Gip said, and I'll be charitable, sometime day two of the draft.  

3 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

He broke a bunch of ncaa records. Mike Vick is the closest player that could do what he does and even Mike Vick said he's better. 

Go do your scouting on him and you'll see most of his problems are pretty coachable. 

I looked at his stats. The plus? HIs completion percentage has improved every year. The minus? His last two seasons at Louisville he totaled over 3,000 yards rushing. Lamar tries that in the NFL, he won't last out a season. He'll have to learn to tone the running way down, and become more of a pocket passer.  "There are no old running QBs in the NFL". 

Here's the NFL.com take:   "Evaluating Jackson against the NFL standards for the position will cause him to come up short. However, he has rare speed and athleticism and can single-handedly win games. Jackson's accuracy is clearly spotty and teams must decide the level of accuracy they are willing to live with relative to his ability to create explosive plays. Jackson may need to operate in an offense ready to integrate RPOs (run/pass options) along with heavy play-action."

[Louisville Slugger]

Most of lamars runs were designed. Not saying he didn't take advantage of his speed but he hung tough in the pocket on his pass plays. His completion percentage should continue to rise while his mechanics improve. With that said I hope he continues to run in the pros that's what makes him special.

I don't think Lamar has ever been banged up and he played Florida State and Clemson every year. I understand the concern but the man is tough as nails.

Mike Vicks completion percentage at Virginia tech was 58 and 54% so you didn't see Vick because Lamar is bettet

[hoorta]

11 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Most of lamars runs were designed. Not saying he didn't take advantage of his speed but he hung tough in the pocket on his pass plays. His completion percentage should continue to rise while his mechanics improve. With that said I hope he continues to run in the pros that's what makes him special.

I don't think Lamar has ever been banged up and he played Florida State and Clemson every year. I understand the concern but the man is tough as nails.

Mike Vicks completion percentage at Virginia tech was 58 and 54% so you didn't see Vick because Lamar is bettet

FWIW, I sure did see enough of Vick at VT to win a bet that he'd be taken #1 overall. I don't see Jackson getting drafted in the top 10.    

[Gunz41]

57 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Most of lamars runs were designed. Not saying he didn't take advantage of his speed but he hung tough in the pocket on his pass plays. His completion percentage should continue to rise while his mechanics improve. With that said I hope he continues to run in the pros that's what makes him special.

I don't think Lamar has ever been banged up and he played Florida State and Clemson every year. I understand the concern but the man is tough as nails.

Mike Vicks completion percentage at Virginia tech was 58 and 54% so you didn't see Vick because Lamar is bettet

Since Vick's name has been mentioned, not ONE poster has said MICHAEL VICK IS BETTER. We may all think that or not, but NOBODY said that, so you are wrong to say you didn't see Vick because Lamar is better.

I will make you a bet, take it or leave it. Michael Vick will have gotten drafted higher than Lamar Jackson. 

You pick the stakes

[tiamat63]

Nobody saw Vick because Lamar doesn't have 4.38 speed with freak lateral agility and a 10/20 yard split like a WR.   Mike is easily the closest thing you've ever seen to a multi-position skill player that just so happened to play QB.  While doing so mostly under center. 

I didn't see Vick because Lamar is nothing like him minus being black. 

[Louisville Slugger]

So the only way I can win is if he gets picked #1 overall. Those odds seem fair.

I'm not going to say where he's going to be picked. I get why some teams will be worried about the amount of polish he needs, but he is a playmaker on the ground and in the air. 

[Gunz41]

1 minute ago, Louisville Slugger said:

So the only way I can win is if he gets picked #1 overall. Those odds seem fair.

I'm not going to say where he's going to be picked. I get why some teams will be worried about the amount of polish he needs, but he is a playmaker on the ground and in the air. 

You didn't get it. I made this "bet" because I can't lose. If he were to be picked 1, it would be a tie. 

He certainly was exciting to watch. But I have a feeling you have a little bit of bias with Louisville in your name. Nothing wrong with that

[Louisville Slugger]

48 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Nobody saw Vick because Lamar doesn't have 4.38 speed with freak lateral agility and a 10/20 yard split like a WR.   Mike is easily the closest thing you've ever seen to a multi-position skill player that just so happened to play QB.  While doing so mostly under center. 

I didn't see Vick because Lamar is nothing like him minus being black. 

You must be watching the wrong player. Lamar may not time as well in the 40 but he is a better athlete on the field... and it's not even close really.

5 minutes ago, Gunz41 said:

You didn't get it. I made this "bet" because I can't lose. If he were to be picked 1, it would be a tie. 

He certainly was exciting to watch. But I have a feeling you have a little bit of bias with Louisville in your name. Nothing wrong with that

I spent the last 2 season thinking that Lamar was just a great college player that didn't translate to the pros. Then I went back and watched how he grew and I believe he can do the same stuff in the NFL. Up until last week I was firmly in camp Darnold. I do my best to eliminate bias and focus on who's going to be the best player for the browns.

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

You must be watching the wrong player. Lamar may not time as well in the 40 but he is a better athlete on the field... and it's not even close really.

 

This makes zero Shmucking sense.  Lamar won't time better in anything.  40, 10, 20, shuttle, 3 cone, broad jump and probably vert.  Mike was that rare and that gifted.   So what does "on the field" even mean?

But out of pure curiousity, where would you draft Lamar if you were Dorsey?!

[The Gipper]

14 hours ago, Gunz41 said:

I generally think that they go by the position ranking though (aside from AN, SOMETIMES). So even if the Nelson kid is rated as the top player on the big board, they don't have him going #1.

Unless I am mistaken, which is certainly possible, the mock drafts try to predict what a team is going to do and needs. So while you may have Darnold as 1, and someone else has Rosen as 1, and Slugger has Jackson as 1, Kiper may think the Browns will take Allen or Mayfield. People may think these guys are idiots, and they may be, but a lot of it is for entertainment purposes, and while possible idiots, they have A LOT of access to the teams

 

 

Yes, precisely.   A mock is merely an attempt to predict what teams will do.

As you said....an OG...Quentin Nelson...may be the highest ranked player out there....but when was the last time an OG was ever taken #1 overall?   (don't try to think about it because the answer is :  Never).

[The Gipper]

13 hours ago, hoorta said:

 The one I referred to Gip ranking\ mock was done by the same guy. Charlie Campbell- Walter Football, sorry- wrong on that count. Sure, the reason rankings\ mocks get screwed up and skewed is to a large part the mocks go out the window on rankings because of the huge premium for Quarterbacks for teams that don't have them.  Jeremiah has Darnold and Rosen ranked #6 & #7, but I wouldn't bet against them going 1-2 in the draft. 

& please, will you kindly admit that the CBS ranking of Randolph as the #1 QB prospect is an outlier? Sure, some rankings go seriously wrong- but most of the time, they're at least close to how the draft position actually falls. That doesn't mean a guy ranked & drafted low can't succeed. Hindsight is always 20\20- you can bet that 2007 the rankings and draft order there would have been a lot different. A lot of those rankings go on measurables and college production. Why IMHO Allen is ranked so high- he can throw the ball out of the stadium.   I'll trust Jeremiah- who actually worked in an NFL teams scouting department- where Mason isn't even in his top 50 prospects, over some guy at CBS with a keyboard and Internet access.  

Outlier?  Sure...in that it does not comport with most other draft rankings that don't have him ranked as high.  

But...it may not be an outlier in terms of actual skill and capability in comparison to others who are also under consideration.  As noted somewhere else....on a pure statistical basis, of like the Top 10 QB prospects, only  Mayfield had better stats.....for what that is worth  (yes...Big 12 red flag). See my post on 2012.  Not sure if that was in this thread or in another.

[Louisville Slugger]

8 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

This makes zero Shmucking sense.  Lamar won't time better in anything.  40, 10, 20, shuttle, 3 cone, broad jump and probably vert.  Mike was that rare and that gifted.   So what does "on the field" even mean?

But out of pure curiousity, where would you draft Lamar if you were Dorsey?!

 

Lamar is bigger, stronger, and has better agility. Vick ran a 4.38 I would look for Lamar to run in the low 4.4s. You talk about being this super scout and you don't know the differece between combine speed and football speed?

 

I've got Lamar rated as the top QB so I'm taking him #1 overall. I see him jumping up the boards soon so you can get on the band wagon too, once the ESPN guys tell you it's ok.

[tiamat63]

42 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

 

Lamar is bigger, stronger, and has better agility. Vick ran a 4.38 I would look for Lamar to run in the low 4.4s. You talk about being this super scout and you don't know the differece between combine speed and football speed?

 

I've got Lamar rated as the top QB so I'm taking him #1 overall. I see him jumping up the boards soon so you can get on the band wagon too, once the ESPN guys tell you it's ok.

Lamar is taller, but couldn't take an angle to get away from Bradley Chubb...  again, no where near the acceleration and lateral cutting but we'll (you) have a better grasp of that this time next year.

 

Also, please don't go into some mythological lecture on scouting then combine vs football speed. Especially in relation to being a runner.   Perhaps if you meant football speed as a defender diagnosing keys and then attacking you'd have a point. 

That said, I get to the fun part of my bait.  You yourself said Rosen is the most polished QB in this draft... yet have him ranked 4th personally.  You refuse to take any friendly bet on Lamar's career, yet rank him 1st overall and would select him 1st which is a spot reserved for franchise level projected pro-bowl/all pro talent that only comes around every so often. 

Yet you yourself said you're 'not sold' on Lamar, hence your push for Cousins... oh and that you wouldn't bet on any of these QB's including Jackson. 

BUT  - you still want us to use the #1 overall and you yourself would despite being convinced, by your own admission, you're not sold on Lamar.  

You'd take someone.....1st  overall.... that you're not sold on.

 

Say that last bit real slow for me so it sinks in.

 

Oh and don't ever insult me again by saying I'm waiting for ESPN mouth pieces to do my thinking for me.  75% of the time I disagree with almost all they say. 

[Louisville Slugger]

I've also said I don't see a generational talent in this draft. Lamar and Barkley could be but there are some concerns. I would take Lamar #1 because I would hope our staff knows how to use him. If they try to run an offense designed for Rothlisberger or Dalton instead of putting him in position to get the most out of his ability he will likely bust. 

That one play where Chubb catches him from behind Lamar went back 3 yards and Chubb went straight down the line and barely touched his shoe strings. It's not like Chubb ran him down. I'm not taking anything away from Vick but Lamar consistently shook multiple defenders with lateral jukes. He spun out of countless tackles. He takes 1 step and he's at full speed. He's a better runner than Vick he just maybe a step behind on top end speed.0a

Rosen is the most polished QB but he has some injury concerns. I don't like the idea of drafting Sam Bradford. It's not about his ability it's about his durability.

Combine results don't mean anything when on the field. Just look at Jarvis Landry, Jerry Rice, Jameis Winston, and anquan Bolden. They all are far more athletic than their combine numbers would have you believe.

Cousins is a proven commodity and will allow us to use that #1 on a safer pick like Bradley Chubb.

Lighten up Tiamat. It was a lighthearted joke. If I knew it would wreck your world I would have changed my name to Nibiru. 

[tiamat63]

5 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

I've also said I don't see a generational talent in this draft. Lamar and Barkley could be but there are some concerns. I would take Lamar #1 because I would hope our staff knows how to use him. If they try to run an offense designed for Rothlisberger or Dalton instead of putting him in position to get the most out of his ability he will likely bust. 

That one play where Chubb catches him from behind Lamar went back 3 yards and Chubb went straight down the line and barely touched his shoe strings. It's not like Chubb ran him down. I'm not taking anything away from Vick but Lamar consistently shook multiple defenders with lateral jukes. He spun out of countless tackles. He takes 1 step and he's at full speed. He's a better runner than Vick he just maybe a step behind on top end speed.0a

Rosen is the most polished QB but he has some injury concerns. I don't like the idea of drafting Sam Bradford. It's not about his ability it's about his durability.

Combine results don't mean anything when on the field. Just look at Jarvis Landry, Jerry Rice, Jameis Winston, and anquan Bolden. They all are far more athletic than their combine numbers would have you believe.

Cousins is a proven commodity and will allow us to use that #1 on a safer pick like Bradley Chubb.

Lighten up Tiamat. It was a lighthearted joke. If I knew it would wreck your world I would have changed my name to Nibiru. 

I'm posting on a message board over something constructed out of 1's and 0's about a team I both love and hate on topics I'll never be able to influence them on.    Don't believe for a moment I take this 'THAT' seriously.

Also you don't take anyone #1 overall when you have "concerns".    That's the summary here.      A summary in which we disagree completely and that's fine.   Good day, sir.