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Louisville Slugger

Blowing up the QB rankings

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LaMar Jackson will slide to the 2nd round...

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On 2/6/2018 at 6:20 PM, Louisville Slugger said:

Here's a crazy idea, maybe we can get substance in these responses. I know I'm going against the grain here but tell me how I'm wrong. 

I have actually been in camp Darnold until last night when I watched tape on all of these guys. I really do try and not let my fandom get in the way and find the best prospect for the browns. I did make a post about bringing in Roman as o.c. and how Lamar would be a great fit in his offense

Because a significant part of Jacksons game is taking off and rushing with the ball. In college you can get away with that because the talent is spread out. Out all the teams that Jackson has played against, how many guys will go to the next level in the NFL?

The NFL has the best football players from every college. Every guy is big and fast. DBs are the same size as Jackson and hit like LBs. QBs like Jackosn dont suddenly want to stick in the pocket and throw the ball away. At some point he will take off running and pay the price. Just ask RG3 , Vick and all the other guys who tried to be an NFL running back.

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Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be.

 

Darnold -  HIT.  Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open".  I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL.  

 

Rosen - MISS.  I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone.  Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time.  He is Jay Cutler.  He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner.  He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go.  

 

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy.

 

Lamar Jackson - BUST.  While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower.  He doesn't "win" in the pocket.  He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB.  This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board.  

 

My thoughts on some other notables:

Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen.  I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something.  

Luke Falk. Career backup.  Accurate thrower.  Not a strong NFL arm.  benefited from system he played in.  Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game.

 

I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say.

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LaMar Jackson might a nice special teams player.. Honestly..I  can't see him do much else in the NFL..

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3 hours ago, Pat Mahomo said:

Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be.

ah. well, https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sam-darnold-1.html

Darnold had 26 TD's, and 13 INTs. 2017. You cherry-picked 2016 for Allen, and you didn't get that right. He had "22 picks with 19 INT's"?  WRONG.

I reckon most of us think a "pick" is an INT. Regardless, it was 28 TD's 15 Ints. So, compare Darnold 26/15 with Allen's JR year of 28/15.

Here, we display them vertically for you:

26/13 (Darnold 2017)

28/15 (Allen 2016)

in 2017, Allen threw about 100 less passes - pro style offense, lost some key players - ran more. 16 TDs, 6 Ints.

Josh Allen has an accuracy problem, well, God Bless ya, everybody knows that. The question is - with his athleticism and work ethic and love for the game - is that coachable and solvable when he gets to the pros? this also applies to Darnold - he has a windup like a pitcher in baseball, etc.

   But if you are going to go with stats, at least get the stats right.

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and all this talk about completion percentage - sure, it's important, but you have to know the reasons it's happening.

Some games, in 2017, Sam Darnold threw very high percentage - once, even over 80% !

But, in four games - he threw for:

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/sam-darnold-player-game-log

Texas 57.1%

WSU 51.7%

UTAH 54.7%

ASU 54.3%

So, Darnold is a STAR. or, Darnold is a BUST? or, the players around him didn't stack up well vs the defenses they faced?

I think it's the latter. Josh Allen, same thing, except more low percentage completion by far. But try comparing the talent vs competiton defenses to the Wyoming talent vs competiton defenses. His one very high game was vs Air Force - completion rate was about 72?

    It's just more complicated than that, that's all. If Allen works and fixes some fundamentals, and rocks his pro day and combine with outstanding accuracy, then he could be the first qb taken. Or, maybe he blows those, and ends up falling well down in the first round. We'll see how it goes.

  

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4 hours ago, Pat Mahomo said:

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy.

Now, about Mayfield. I really have fun time rooting for him. However, he threw to wide open receivers a LOT of the time. His long ball floats - it's his arm strength. No expert - I just think windows in the NFL are a LOT tighter, and on long throws, his long throw will have a defender given plenty of time to catch up/reposition to knock it down, intercept it, etc.

Mayfield's love for the game, his fire, his ability to play the game, his work ethic... really impressive.

but just recently, he deleted a tweet - can't imagine him doing all this in the pro game.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/baker-mayfield-oklahoma-tweet-deleted-keondre-coburn-recruit-signing-day-texas-college-football

he IS very, very accurate. But, he has arguably the best offensive line in college football, and a few great other players around him.

   There are times when Mayfield's lack of a gun will hurt him - perhaps his immaturity/need for attention will get him in trouble -

and his height. The kid has great other football IQ - he IS a player. But I don't know.

Here's a real good debate/appraisal of Mayfield:

 

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There is no such thing as a good debate with an asshat like skip blowhard on the screen.   Why anyone watches his nonsense is beyond me.

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3 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. well, https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sam-darnold-1.html

Darnold had 26 TD's, and 13 INTs. 2017. You cherry-picked 2016 for Allen, and you didn't get that right. He had "22 picks with 19 INT's"?  WRONG.

I reckon most of us think a "pick" is an INT. Regardless, it was 28 TD's 15 Ints. So, compare Darnold 26/15 with Allen's JR year of 28/15.

Here, we display them vertically for you:

26/13 (Darnold 2017)

28/15 (Allen 2016)

in 2017, Allen threw about 100 less passes - pro style offense, lost some key players - ran more. 16 TDs, 6 Ints.

Josh Allen has an accuracy problem, well, God Bless ya, everybody knows that. The question is - with his athleticism and work ethic and love for the game - is that coachable and solvable when he gets to the pros? this also applies to Darnold - he has a windup like a pitcher in baseball, etc.

   But if you are going to go with stats, at least get the stats right.

I didn't say Allen had 22 picks and 19 Ints...that's the kind of 1977 ish QB I project him to be.

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ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

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9 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

Since he starts from the lowest downside....when he reaches his upside...he will just be as equally behind the others as he is now.

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1 hour ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

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8 minutes ago, boo fagley said:

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

He has thrown for a 56% completion rate two years in a row in a weak conference.  That seems like a big problem to me.  Should have been a noticable increase....56%?  He is going to get a GM and coach fired within 2 years.

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8 minutes ago, Pat Mahomo said:

He has thrown for a 56% completion rate two years in a row in a weak conference.  That seems like a big problem to me.  Should have been a noticable increase....56%?  He is going to get a GM and coach fired within 2 years.

I dont buy that Allen is in this pro style offense with top tier coaching. 

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2 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

We won't get into the accuracy debate again Cal- you know how I feel. Allen may have the highest upside, but he also has the lowest floor.  Fumble-itis is more easily corrected than accuracy problems. 

About total agreement with Mahomo. Right now, I have it Darnold\Mayfield, Mayfield\Darnold. I'll wait until after the combine to officially join a camp. But you're wrong about Mayfield in a couple respects. He has plenty enough NFL arm. I could be wrong, but my eyes tell me post Super Bowl slightly better than Foles or Brady. (yeah, your guy Allen probably would rate up there on the 10 point scale with Elway's 9.0 in arm strength, but it takes more than that)  Mayfield's accuracy is such I don't much care he had guys wide open. Accuracy is accuracy- if the WR is wide open- or he's got a NFL CB hanging on the guy's back. I've seen too many pinpoint passes out of Baker to think otherwise. Couple endzone throws where he threaded the needle between defenders too. 

 

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Robert KlemkoVerified account @RobertKlemko
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Robert Klemko Retweeted The MMQB

The Browns got on Baker Mayfield's private visit schedule right after the Super Bowl, I'm told. They top list of likely destinations for the Heisman winner

 

At 1 or at 4 ?

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6 minutes ago, darren15 said:
Robert KlemkoVerified account @RobertKlemko
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Robert Klemko Retweeted The MMQB

The Browns got on Baker Mayfield's private visit schedule right after the Super Bowl, I'm told. They top list of likely destinations for the Heisman winner

 

At 1 or at 4 ?

6'0 QB with maturity issues from Big 12 school.

That would take some brass balls from Dorsey. 

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I do like the kid, though.

Here's a great article on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000889241/article/wilson-or-manziel-the-good-bad-with-ou-qb-baker-mayfield

weaknesses from Walter Football:

Weaknesses:

  • Undersized; shorter than ideal
  • Poor footwork
  • Gets happy feet in the pocket
  • Inconsistent field vision
  • Can have issues reading the field
  • Teams question how will he perform when forced to stay in the pocket?
  • Didn't play a lot of top competition
  • Maturity
  • Will need more development for working under center
  • Transition from a college-style to pro-style offense
  •  
"Mayfield is undersized for the NFL with just average arm strength,..."

 


Read more: http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018bmayfield.php#ixzz56Z4kvFZt

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2 hours ago, boo fagley said:

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

2 of those 3 weren't even taken in the first round. 

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NFL Radio's Pat Kerwin (Moving the Chains Show) spent the week at the senior bowl and thought Mayfield would be the best pick for the Browns.

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1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

2 of those 3 weren't even taken in the first round. 

Would you take them in the 1st round today?

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18 minutes ago, boo fagley said:

Would you take them in the 1st round today?

Is this somehow meant to validate your argument?  Because hindsight is kind of a cowpoop way to prove your point. 

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2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Is this somehow meant to validate your argument?  Because hindsight is kind of a cowpoop way to prove your point. 

but that goes both ways, yes?

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