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Blowing up the QB rankings

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and all this talk about completion percentage - sure, it's important, but you have to know the reasons it's happening.

Some games, in 2017, Sam Darnold threw very high percentage - once, even over 80% !

But, in four games - he threw for:

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/sam-darnold-player-game-log

Texas 57.1%

WSU 51.7%

UTAH 54.7%

ASU 54.3%

So, Darnold is a STAR. or, Darnold is a BUST? or, the players around him didn't stack up well vs the defenses they faced?

I think it's the latter. Josh Allen, same thing, except more low percentage completion by far. But try comparing the talent vs competiton defenses to the Wyoming talent vs competiton defenses. His one very high game was vs Air Force - completion rate was about 72?

    It's just more complicated than that, that's all. If Allen works and fixes some fundamentals, and rocks his pro day and combine with outstanding accuracy, then he could be the first qb taken. Or, maybe he blows those, and ends up falling well down in the first round. We'll see how it goes.

  

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4 hours ago, Pat Mahomo said:

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy.

Now, about Mayfield. I really have fun time rooting for him. However, he threw to wide open receivers a LOT of the time. His long ball floats - it's his arm strength. No expert - I just think windows in the NFL are a LOT tighter, and on long throws, his long throw will have a defender given plenty of time to catch up/reposition to knock it down, intercept it, etc.

Mayfield's love for the game, his fire, his ability to play the game, his work ethic... really impressive.

but just recently, he deleted a tweet - can't imagine him doing all this in the pro game.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/baker-mayfield-oklahoma-tweet-deleted-keondre-coburn-recruit-signing-day-texas-college-football

he IS very, very accurate. But, he has arguably the best offensive line in college football, and a few great other players around him.

   There are times when Mayfield's lack of a gun will hurt him - perhaps his immaturity/need for attention will get him in trouble -

and his height. The kid has great other football IQ - he IS a player. But I don't know.

Here's a real good debate/appraisal of Mayfield:

 

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There is no such thing as a good debate with an asshat like skip blowhard on the screen.   Why anyone watches his nonsense is beyond me.

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3 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. well, https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sam-darnold-1.html

Darnold had 26 TD's, and 13 INTs. 2017. You cherry-picked 2016 for Allen, and you didn't get that right. He had "22 picks with 19 INT's"?  WRONG.

I reckon most of us think a "pick" is an INT. Regardless, it was 28 TD's 15 Ints. So, compare Darnold 26/15 with Allen's JR year of 28/15.

Here, we display them vertically for you:

26/13 (Darnold 2017)

28/15 (Allen 2016)

in 2017, Allen threw about 100 less passes - pro style offense, lost some key players - ran more. 16 TDs, 6 Ints.

Josh Allen has an accuracy problem, well, God Bless ya, everybody knows that. The question is - with his athleticism and work ethic and love for the game - is that coachable and solvable when he gets to the pros? this also applies to Darnold - he has a windup like a pitcher in baseball, etc.

   But if you are going to go with stats, at least get the stats right.

I didn't say Allen had 22 picks and 19 Ints...that's the kind of 1977 ish QB I project him to be.

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ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

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9 minutes ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

Since he starts from the lowest downside....when he reaches his upside...he will just be as equally behind the others as he is now.

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1 hour ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

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8 minutes ago, boo fagley said:

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

He has thrown for a 56% completion rate two years in a row in a weak conference.  That seems like a big problem to me.  Should have been a noticable increase....56%?  He is going to get a GM and coach fired within 2 years.

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8 minutes ago, Pat Mahomo said:

He has thrown for a 56% completion rate two years in a row in a weak conference.  That seems like a big problem to me.  Should have been a noticable increase....56%?  He is going to get a GM and coach fired within 2 years.

I dont buy that Allen is in this pro style offense with top tier coaching. 

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2 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

ah. We'll just have to see what all happens. I think Allen has the highest upside. Darnold has turnovers/fumbles problem...

We won't get into the accuracy debate again Cal- you know how I feel. Allen may have the highest upside, but he also has the lowest floor.  Fumble-itis is more easily corrected than accuracy problems. 

About total agreement with Mahomo. Right now, I have it Darnold\Mayfield, Mayfield\Darnold. I'll wait until after the combine to officially join a camp. But you're wrong about Mayfield in a couple respects. He has plenty enough NFL arm. I could be wrong, but my eyes tell me post Super Bowl slightly better than Foles or Brady. (yeah, your guy Allen probably would rate up there on the 10 point scale with Elway's 9.0 in arm strength, but it takes more than that)  Mayfield's accuracy is such I don't much care he had guys wide open. Accuracy is accuracy- if the WR is wide open- or he's got a NFL CB hanging on the guy's back. I've seen too many pinpoint passes out of Baker to think otherwise. Couple endzone throws where he threaded the needle between defenders too. 

 

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Robert KlemkoVerified account @RobertKlemko
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Robert Klemko Retweeted The MMQB

The Browns got on Baker Mayfield's private visit schedule right after the Super Bowl, I'm told. They top list of likely destinations for the Heisman winner

 

At 1 or at 4 ?

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6 minutes ago, darren15 said:
Robert KlemkoVerified account @RobertKlemko
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Robert Klemko Retweeted The MMQB

The Browns got on Baker Mayfield's private visit schedule right after the Super Bowl, I'm told. They top list of likely destinations for the Heisman winner

 

At 1 or at 4 ?

6'0 QB with maturity issues from Big 12 school.

That would take some brass balls from Dorsey. 

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I do like the kid, though.

Here's a great article on him:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000889241/article/wilson-or-manziel-the-good-bad-with-ou-qb-baker-mayfield

weaknesses from Walter Football:

Weaknesses:

  • Undersized; shorter than ideal
  • Poor footwork
  • Gets happy feet in the pocket
  • Inconsistent field vision
  • Can have issues reading the field
  • Teams question how will he perform when forced to stay in the pocket?
  • Didn't play a lot of top competition
  • Maturity
  • Will need more development for working under center
  • Transition from a college-style to pro-style offense
  •  
"Mayfield is undersized for the NFL with just average arm strength,..."

 


Read more: http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018bmayfield.php#ixzz56Z4kvFZt

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2 hours ago, boo fagley said:

Allen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

2 of those 3 weren't even taken in the first round. 

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NFL Radio's Pat Kerwin (Moving the Chains Show) spent the week at the senior bowl and thought Mayfield would be the best pick for the Browns.

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18 minutes ago, boo fagley said:

Would you take them in the 1st round today?

Is this somehow meant to validate your argument?  Because hindsight is kind of a cowpoop way to prove your point. 

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2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

Is this somehow meant to validate your argument?  Because hindsight is kind of a cowpoop way to prove your point. 

but that goes both ways, yes?

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5 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

2 of those 3 weren't even taken in the first round. 

Brees, Favre and Brady were all taken outside of the first round. 

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5 minutes ago, RoyceRolls said:

Brees, Favre and Brady were all taken outside of the first round. 

You're right, I forgot Favre was taken at the 1st pick of the 2nd round. 

For some reason I thought he was a 1st round, tail end kind of pick.    

 

Point further proven.  None of those QB's were taken in the 1st round.

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We are going to have the same Brees, Favre, Brady conversation all over again??? 

I bet that most of us wouldn't have a problem drafting Allen, but never in the top of the 1st, and as that's the spot were we MUST draft our QBOTF, well, that takes Allen out of our ideal draft choices for most of us.

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2 minutes ago, Nero said:

We are going to have the same Brees, Favre, Brady conversation all over again??? 

I bet that most of us wouldn't have a problem drafting Allen, but never in the top of the 1st, and as that's the spot were we MUST draft our QBOTF, well, that takes Allen out of our ideal draft choices for most of us.

Geeezzz I wish the draft was next week! 

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3 hours ago, Nero said:

We are going to have the same Brees, Favre, Brady conversation all over again??? 

I bet that most of us wouldn't have a problem drafting Allen, but never in the top of the 1st, and as that's the spot were we MUST draft our QBOTF, well, that takes Allen out of our ideal draft choices for most of us.

Besides we already have Allen. He plays exactly the same way and did show some flashes of learning in the last few games. If he'd had any WRs worth a damn other than JG, he might have been able to show us more. Too many game changing drops last year only topped off by Coleman's stone handed miss in the last game.

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llen has the best upside for development. People say that he wont improve his completion rate. Hogwash,  Brady, Brees and Farve improved.

Some team is going grab Allen and he will be a star. The next big name NFL QB.

2 of those 3 weren't even taken in the first round. 

Actually.....technically....none of them were.   Brady...6th round as you know.  Favre was a second rounder...#33    As was Brees.   Now...he went #32...but at the time there were only 31 picks in the first round.....and he was the first pick of the second round.

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2 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Besides we already have Allen. He plays exactly the same way and did show some flashes of learning in the last few games. If he'd had any WRs worth a damn other than JG, he might have been able to show us more. Too many game changing drops last year only topped off by Coleman's stone handed miss in the last game.

Exactly.   Why do we want another big, strong, athletic QB who is inaccurate?   We already have Kizer on the roster, why draft another version of him this year? 

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Kizer doesn't love the game. Kizer isn't much of a leader on the field, or off it, he has little fire in him. He looks only at ONE THIRD of the field every play. AS in, every...single....play. It's all he can do, apparently. Allen can look one way, and throw the other - he never had the talent around him that Notre Dame has.

Allen "is Kizer" = Mayfield "is Manziel".

just really dumb. Kizer is a tall kid who has a big arm who can play a little football. Allen is a tall kid with a big arm, who IS A FOOTBALL PLAYER. In that regard, Allen is a lot like Mayfield. He LOVES the game. He LIVES the game. It seems Kizer doesn't love much of anything.

Kizer interviews after a lost football game like he just got pulled over for speeding 10 mph over the speed limit and is getting a warning. His first season, he threw a 62.x completion percentage. He's a "star"...wait, his last year it went down to 56.x percent. He's "a bust"

***********************************************

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Mayfield is a heck of a kid. Give him a couple of inch higher platform shoes, and an arm like Allen's, and I'd draft him over Allen. lol

My dumb opinion - the Browns will go with Mayfield or Allen, with the first pick. It depends on Allen at his pro day and conbine - he will have to show terrific accuracy and touch....or the choice swings to Mayfield right there.

They will trade out of the four pick, and and get one of three free safeties with the other pick. There are only three fs in this draft - the Browns need one of them, and I think all three are gone by the second round.

Who knows. I sure don't. lol

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Mike H said:

Tiamat is an insufferable dickwad.

Hand to God, I laughed pretty hard.  Thanks because I needed that. 

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