Blowing up the QB rankings

[Louisville Slugger]

I've watched the game tape on the top QBs in this draft class and I came away with a much different opinion than the experts. Starting from 5 to 1 this is how rank the QBs

5. Josh Allen- Pure potential. He obviously has a cannon and he is a pretty good athlete. I like the way he stands tall in the pocket and steps up in the face of pressure. He has poor ball placement and completely misses more than you would like. It appears as if he struggles to see the field and looks to rely on his arm instead of reading the defense. I honestly should have Rudolph in this spot but Allen's tools are hard to overlook. I wouldn't touch him in the first 2 rounds.

 

4. Josh Rosen- The most polished QB in this class. Solid pocket passer with good height but needs to put on some weight. Accuracy is good at times but isn't elite. If it wasn't for his injury concerns, and rumored attitude problems, I would have a better review of him. I would wait until the end of the 1st round before considering pulling the trigger.

 

3. Sam Darnold- Darnold has been my pick all season long, but he looks scared to step up in the pocket. When the pass rush is coming at him he looks like he freaks out. If his balls drop he has everyhing you look for in a QB. Sometimes even reminds me of Aaron Rogers, mobility, accuracy, and a solid arm. I would still consider him at #1 but not my favorite prospect.

 

2. Baker Mayfield- so much to like here. He really understood his offense and put up video game numbers. Good accuracy and a decent arm. Handles pressure pretty well but his line was ridiculously good. He had a clean pocket like 90% of the time and they allowed him to pick apart the defense. Makes quick read and rarely makes a bad throw. I could look past his size to put him as the #1 spot but his character is a real concern.

 

1. Lamar Jackson- I know I'm going to get knocked for being a homer, but like I said earlier, I was firmly in camp Darnold until I watched more tape. Lamar is special. His athleticism and grit are undeniable. As a passer he needs some work but he's not as far off from the other prospect as you would think. He has to become more consistent and I think if he stops trying to do it all he can accomplish that. Some throws are top notch then he'll throw a head scratcher. Bottom line he is a playmaker and at first I was worried that he wouldn't translate to the NFL, but after comparing him to the field i think he has a better chance than most. 

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[tiamat63]

You watched but failed to grasp.  I take my leave now.  

[Dutch Oven]

Lamar Jackson, the #1 QB of this class?

Wow.

[boo fagley]

Jackson will get blown up in the NFL.

He is a phenom in college and that is all. His game does not translate to the next level.

[gumby73]

got to give it to Louisville Slugger..he has not waiver'd on his hometown QB since bowl season..TopDawg31 stuck to his hometown Mentor guy in Mitch last season..Good Luck, we'll see where Lamar is after the combine..but I like his attitude with the nay say media that "Am playing NFL QB" not another position..hope he sticks to it & does not turn to agent speaking out both sides of his mouth..  

[Louisville Slugger]

Here's a crazy idea, maybe we can get substance in these responses. I know I'm going against the grain here but tell me how I'm wrong. 

I have actually been in camp Darnold until last night when I watched tape on all of these guys. I really do try and not let my fandom get in the way and find the best prospect for the browns. I did make a post about bringing in Roman as o.c. and how Lamar would be a great fit in his offense

[gumby73]

the problem with most these guys, is NFL defenses will attack their weakness..Darnold on tape will continue to see pressure in face as bowl game till he can beat it getting ball out early..Lamar & Mayfield with wider hash marks will be forced to sit in pocket till you beat them with your arm reading defenses getting to 2nd & 3rd progressions..Mainly why Rosen is being trotted as most ready to start day one.. 

[Dutch Oven]

57 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Here's a crazy idea, maybe we can get substance in these responses. I know I'm going against the grain here but tell me how I'm wrong. 

I have actually been in camp Darnold until last night when I watched tape on all of these guys. I really do try and not let my fandom get in the way and find the best prospect for the browns. I did make a post about bringing in Roman as o.c. and how Lamar would be a great fit in his offense

Because he is a ridiculously limited QB for the pro game at this point. 

He's the epitome of a "one-read and run" QB. You posted a highlight film of him a while back, and most of it was him running or completing a pass downfield off a broken play. 

In fact, you cooled off him at the end of the season, and even admitted that you probably overvalued him. Now he's back as the #1 QB in this class? 

[Louisville Slugger]

I don't think of ever posted a video. I'm not sure I even know how. 

He's not a one read and run type you have never watched a game of his have you? He ran alot but the main reason was either to design or to buy time. Jackson also has a good arm and reads defenses pretty well. He's not as bad from the pocket as everyone makes him out to be. He just needs to get more consistent. 

[dawg2fan]

12 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

I don't think of ever posted a video. I'm not sure I even know how. 

He's not a one read and run type you have never watched a game of his have you? He ran alot but the main reason was either to design or to buy time. Jackson also has a good arm and reads defenses pretty well. He's not as bad from the pocket as everyone makes him out to be. He just needs to get more consistent. 

Hmm, I'm surprised you don't have JT Barrett in there.  I still have this problem with short QBs.  And I know Breese, Wilson, and a few others in there.  But they are few and far between.  I'd still take either Allen or Darnold 1st (both tall and wide, and can throw) and Barclay 4th.

[LondonBrown]

I don't see much wrong with Mayfield's character, in fact I think it's a positive on him.

[Louisville Slugger]

It maybe the mazeil effect, but grabbing your crotch and cussing out fans is just a dumb thing to do and QBs are held to a higher standard. I don't think Mayfield is on the Manzeil level, but it's still a red flag.

Jackson is 6'3 will probably come in an inch shorter like most prospects. Comparing him to Barrett is just ridiculous.

[The Gipper]

MAYBE....if you were drafting a QB to play for college team....you would have Jackson high on your list.

But this is the NFL that he will be going to play in.....not another college league.

[Tour2ma]

18 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

4. Josh Rosen- The most polished QB in this class.

Perfect spot for the "most polished QB"...

[mjp28]

8 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Perfect spot for the "most polished QB"...

So what's wrong with a Polish quarterback? Jaworski was a Polish quarterback and he was pretty good. 

[tiamat63]

18 hours ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Here's a crazy idea, maybe we can get substance in these responses. I know I'm going against the grain here but tell me how I'm wrong. 

I have actually been in camp Darnold until last night when I watched tape on all of these guys. I really do try and not let my fandom get in the way and find the best prospect for the browns. I did make a post about bringing in Roman as o.c. and how Lamar would be a great fit in his offense

If you were able to watch 5 prospects in ONE night... then you didn't watch enough.    Chances are you didn't rewind plays, diagram route/concepts and recognition. 

You just did the ' eye test' and moved back to the narrative you had which was to bring in Roman as OC.  By the by, since we've had this conversation before - how many points did the Bills score in their playoff appearance?

[Tour2ma]

34 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

If you were able to watch 5 prospects in ONE night... then you didn't watch enough.    Chances are you didn't rewind plays, diagram route/concepts and recognition.

It's hard to evaluate one prospect per day... even an OL let alone a QB.

 

Slugger, if you want input, then you have to describe your approach and show your work. Transcribe your game notes... post links to the videos you watched...

[Louisville Slugger]

I'm a fan, not a scout. How much do you need to see if a guy can play? I would guess I spend 2 hours over the course of an entire off-season looking at a particular prospect. Here's my process, it's not perfect but it served me we figuring that I've only had 3-4 big misses since 2007 when I started getting into this stuff.

I look at stats by position and read reviews from a few sites that I like. I'll rarely spend time on kids that dont put up numbers unless they're some freak athlete.

I watch tape( usually about 5 games at first) to see if the numbers match the play. I look for positive and negative traits.

Once I weed out the ones that I think are busts I compare the remaning players tape to the field. For example I'll watch Sam Darnold for 3 or 4 games, then Josh Rosen for 3 or 4 games. Then I'll determine who I like better. 

Going into the combine I usually have a good idea on the players I like and I'll see if there athleticism translates from what I saw on tape to their performance. I don't put a ton of stock into the combine but I do use it as tool to get a better picture of what I saw on tape.

I use the mock drafts to see where players are slotted to go and I'll use that as a guideline to target player I feel like are gems. That's just a guideline however. For instance most mocks have Rashaad Penny going in the 3rd or 4th round right now but I think he has good value at 33. I was saying Josh Jackson was a good value at 4 when most mocks had him mid to late round. The experts apparently saw what I did and now have him slotted in the 5-10 range. 

The players I've missed on that I can think of off the top of my head

Trent Richardson- I had Doug Martin with a similar grade but I feel in love with his power and agility. It was hard to see his lack of vision with those holes that Alabama line would open up for him.

Kyle Fuller- He has been up and down but I thought he was the best corner in that class.

Matt Elam- by far the biggest blunder on my part. I thought he was awesome at Florida. Athletic, hit like a truck, and was productive. I never would of have guessed he would be out of the league after his rookie deal

[tiamat63]

Just realized that Sluggers evals include trigger words ive mentioned before hand should guide you away from that QB...

"Athletic, playmaker, Grit".  

Notice the words I use for my preferred passers, there's a big one he used as weak points re: Lamar

"Consistency".  

 

I've echoed this several times but I'll use this thread as the poster child. 

If you find yourself watching a QB and the first words you use to describe him are "winner, leader, stats, playmaker, HEISMAN, athletic" etc etc...   you should re-evaluate why you're not using the words "Accurate, decisive, consistent, command" etc etc. 

I'll take my leave from this thread and if you want the input from a dude that put together a top 5 list under 24 hours doing his own homework... that's all you.  

[LogicIsForSquares]

2 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

Just realized that Sluggers evals include trigger words that should guide you away from that QB...

"Athletic, playmaker, Grit".  

Notice the words I use for my preferred passers, there's a big one he used as weak points re: Lamar

"Consistency".  

 

I've echoed this several times but I'll use this thread as the poster child. 

If you find yourself watching a QB and the first words you use to describe him are "winner, leader, stats, playmaker, HEISMAN, athletic" etc etc...   you should re-evaluate why you're not using the words "Accurate, decisive, consistent, command" etc etc. 

I'll take my leave from this thread and if you want the input from a dude that put together a top 5 list under 24 hours doing his own homework... that's all you.  

This post is a real game changer. It has a real fire to it. If I had to sum it up with one word, it would be ‘grit’. It is the Baker Mayfield of posts.

[Louisville Slugger]

1 hour ago, tiamat63 said:

Just realized that Sluggers evals include trigger words ive mentioned before hand should guide you away from that QB...

"Athletic, playmaker, Grit".  

Notice the words I use for my preferred passers, there's a big one he used as weak points re: Lamar

"Consistency".  

 

I've echoed this several times but I'll use this thread as the poster child. 

If you find yourself watching a QB and the first words you use to describe him are "winner, leader, stats, playmaker, HEISMAN, athletic" etc etc...   you should re-evaluate why you're not using the words "Accurate, decisive, consistent, command" etc etc. 

I'll take my leave from this thread and if you want the input from a dude that put together a top 5 list under 24 hours doing his own homework... that's all you.  

Here's a fun little idea. We should pin a thread and we can put our player rankings on them. List the players who are steals and busts. Let's see who does the better evaluations.

[tiamat63]

6 minutes ago, Louisville Slugger said:

Here's a fun little idea. We should pin a thread and we can put our player rankings on them. List the players who are steals and busts. Let's see who does the better evaluations.

Since ive been apart of this board my track record speaks for itself with Orchard being a notable exception. 

 

I'm also not arguing your results (this moment) I'm more offended at your body of work and time invested to develop your rankings.

Having said that - what shall we wager over Lamar's NFL career? Since that's your horse I'll negotiate a bet based on his success (or lack of)

[Louisville Slugger]

I wouldn't bet on Lamar Jackson or any of these QBs. I think he has the best chance to be special, but I'm well aware of the risk. If I was sold on Jackson I wouldn't have been pushing so hard for us to make a move for Cousins. Honestly I don't see generational talent in this draft for the #1 pick. As it stands now Chubb is the best player in this draft in my opinion. 

[Nero]

7 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

It's hard to evaluate one prospect per day... even an OL let alone a QB.

 

Slugger, if you want input, then you have to describe your approach and show your work. Transcribe your game notes... post links to the videos you watched...

 

2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

I'll take my leave from this thread and if you want the input from a dude that put together a top 5 list under 24 hours doing his own homework... that's all you.  

I was playing with darts with QB pictures planning on sharing the results of my QB rankings, but hey, if that method is not welcome I will pull a McDaniels and won't post anything... 

You smartasses ... 

[nickers]

LaMar Jackson will slide to the 2nd round...

[boo fagley]

On 2/6/2018 at 6:20 PM, Louisville Slugger said:

Here's a crazy idea, maybe we can get substance in these responses. I know I'm going against the grain here but tell me how I'm wrong. 

I have actually been in camp Darnold until last night when I watched tape on all of these guys. I really do try and not let my fandom get in the way and find the best prospect for the browns. I did make a post about bringing in Roman as o.c. and how Lamar would be a great fit in his offense

Because a significant part of Jacksons game is taking off and rushing with the ball. In college you can get away with that because the talent is spread out. Out all the teams that Jackson has played against, how many guys will go to the next level in the NFL?

The NFL has the best football players from every college. Every guy is big and fast. DBs are the same size as Jackson and hit like LBs. QBs like Jackosn dont suddenly want to stick in the pocket and throw the ball away. At some point he will take off running and pay the price. Just ask RG3 , Vick and all the other guys who tried to be an NFL running back.

[Pat Mahomo]

 

Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be.

 

Darnold -  HIT.  Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open".  I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL.  

 

Rosen - MISS.  I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone.  Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time.  He is Jay Cutler.  He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner.  He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go.  

 

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy.

 

Lamar Jackson - BUST.  While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower.  He doesn't "win" in the pocket.  He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB.  This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board.  

 

My thoughts on some other notables:

Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen.  I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something.  

Luke Falk. Career backup.  Accurate thrower.  Not a strong NFL arm.  benefited from system he played in.  Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game.

 

I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say.

[nickers]

LaMar Jackson might a nice special teams player.. Honestly..I  can't see him do much else in the NFL..

[calfoxwc]

3 hours ago, Pat Mahomo said:

Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be.

ah. well, https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sam-darnold-1.html

Darnold had 26 TD's, and 13 INTs. 2017. You cherry-picked 2016 for Allen, and you didn't get that right. He had "22 picks with 19 INT's"?  WRONG.

I reckon most of us think a "pick" is an INT. Regardless, it was 28 TD's 15 Ints. So, compare Darnold 26/15 with Allen's JR year of 28/15.

Here, we display them vertically for you:

26/13 (Darnold 2017)

28/15 (Allen 2016)

in 2017, Allen threw about 100 less passes - pro style offense, lost some key players - ran more. 16 TDs, 6 Ints.

Josh Allen has an accuracy problem, well, God Bless ya, everybody knows that. The question is - with his athleticism and work ethic and love for the game - is that coachable and solvable when he gets to the pros? this also applies to Darnold - he has a windup like a pitcher in baseball, etc.

   But if you are going to go with stats, at least get the stats right.