2018 QB Class

[TexasAg1969]

14 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

Tour....what the heck is wrong with me? Scratch that, we don't have time to go into that, and I don't need my therapist responding on this thread. But I don't have this class as anything THAT special? Am I the only one? Sure I love Rosen's ability, and I believe Darnold has some crazy tools, although super raw, but this doesn't feel any different from the past few years. I have Josh Allen as a 2nd to 3rd round pick, and only 3 qb's ranked for the first round (Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield). Am I forgetting someone? I absolutely love Lamar Jackson, but I consider him to be more of a project than the others, thus giving him a 2nd round grade (although I think someone falls in love with him and trades back into 1st round). There's a CHANCE I will move Mason Rudolph into the 1st round, but to be fair, I haven't evaluated him yet, and I'm slow to warm to big, slow white guys from Oklahoma State (ahem, Weeden). 

I fully respect Bruce Arians, and I was one of fans who was ticked when we didn't hire him in past years. I think he knows qb's, so maybe I'm just way wrong for thinking this qb class is just more of the same. I was slow to come around on Darnold because of his rawness and penchant for turning over the rock, but now I believe his skill set is simply too vast to ignore. Rosen has my favorite skill set by far, but I don't love his injury history, and I'm worried there is some truth to rumors regarding his entitlement and arrogance issues. I'm just not sure a team like the Browns can take a risk on a QB with concussion history. Now, I tend to be higher than most on Baker Mayfield, and here's why:  I've long said that the QB responsible for turning the Browns around will be a special talent. A guy who isn't just physically talented, but someone who has the charisma and innate leadership ability that infects his teammates with a "can't lose" attitude. A fiery, emotional, and larger than life type personality who will drive our team from the doldrums of professional sports and cement our beleaguered franchise back in the top where we have strayed for far too long. 

If you were to look at Baker Mayfield's stats in the Senior Bowl, you'd probably come away unimpressed (3-7, 9 yards I think). But the numbers don't tell you the entire story, as virtually every pass he threw was right on the money except for maybe 1 or 2. They were definitely not "easy" catches, but he demonstrated accuracy and surprising arm strength on several tosses. He also showed off his newly acquired experience in taking snaps under center. Although he didn't show many, it certainly looked pretty natural. With Mayfield, I really want to know about his intelligence. How does he score in Wonderlic? What do people say about his ability to digest information, and more importantly, his ability to PROCESS information quickly? Can he progress through his reads, and if not, does he possess the aptitude for LEARNING this prized skill? 

As the season ended, I was completely on board with drafting Josh Rosen. In fact, I STILL believe he's the best pure prospect in the draft. I've always agreed with Tour on that fact, but as more time goes by, I find myself becoming more and more terrified of drafting a QB with concussion issues, especially when rookies are known to take so many hits (as they learn the speed and nuances of the game). If not for the concussions, I'd be screaming to draft Rosen, and even if we do, I'll still be elated. He's a very solid choice. But due to injury concerns, I find myself going back and forth with Darnold and Mayfield. Darnold got his butt blown apart by Ohio State, and that's worrisome, but he's certainly not the only qb to receive that treatment by OSU's defense. Darnold is scrappy, physically talented, and has lots to work with. I don't love his release, and he needs to clean up the fumbles IMMEDIATELY. Mayfield is the KING of scrappy, but doesn't have the size. All three (Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield) are currently part of my "We better draft these guys or I'll implode" list, and as the workouts and combine evaluations start to roll in, we Browns fans will have lots of fun discussing these guys and what they each bring to the table. 

I can't believe you didn't mention Po's hand job queen, Allen.

Oh wait, he's tuggin' Barkley & Ghoolie these days.

[jiggins7919]

On 1/27/2018 at 2:41 PM, Tour2ma said:

Always find Pluto reads to be among the best...

This point jumped out at me. I've read so much here and other places about how inferior the talent around Allen was... how his completion percentage suffered due to drops, etc. Turns out not-so-much...

" 10. Profootballfocus reported Allen had only 12 passes dropped at Wyoming last season. By contrast, UCLA's Josh Rosen had 34 passes dropped, Mayfield had 28 and Darnold had 18. So Allen's low completion percentage was not due to guys dropping balls."

I'll say it again, Josh Allen absolutely terrifies me and I want nothing to do with him. Mel Kiper recently said, "Stats are for losers" when discussing Allen's uninspiring statistics, and that's about the worst argument I've EVER heard when trying to defend a stance. I mean, it almost sounds like he's in the 5th grade. "You don't like the analytical and quantitative evidence of how my favorite qb performed last year?! Yeah? Well....STATS ARE FOR LOSERS! Ha! And my daddy can beat up your daddy!" 

Deshone Kizer struggled with HIS accuracy in the league, and he appeared more accurate to me than Allen while in college. Accuracy is so important in the NFL, and not just the ability to deliver the ball to the intended target, but the ability to deliver it IN STRIDE. Dorsey loves yards after the catch, and hasn't made that a secret. It's one of the many reasons he signed Alex Smith (also one of the biggest reasons I WANTED him too *sigh*). How many times did Kizer complete a pass for positive gains, but the receiver either fell down to secure the catch, or had to jump for it, or slow down....or whatever. All the time, right? Now, this wasn't ALWAYS his fault, as too many times our receivers went down when they didn't have to, or couldn't make a single defender miss, but if I had to guess, we were one of the worst teams in the league in YAC (too lazy to look up. Lol). 

We need accuracy, and more importantly, YAC ACCURACY in Cleveland. We STILL haven't found ways to get Corey Coleman the ball in space, and that was something he was KNOWN for in college. Now, he appears to be a little possession receiver. Just what every team wants! Wait...no...no they don't. Coleman's inability to get YAC isn't completely on Hue or Kizer, as the young man has dealt with two freak hand injuries, but it's still baffling to me that a guy with Coleman's physical skills has yet to basically make ANY explosive plays for us. This is yet another reason why I was desperate for Alex Smith. I felt he could've rejuvenated Coleman's entire career with his precision passing, and if we had Josh Gordon on the other side, Duke out of the backfield, and Njoku in the middle, all of the sudden you have an offense that isn't easy to shut down. 

The pinpoint accuracy is the single biggest reason I like Mayfield so much, and also Rosen (except for injuries). I want the ball in the hands of our playmakers, and I want it there on time and in stride. 

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

Tour....what the heck is wrong with me? Scratch that, we don't have time to go into that, and I don't need my therapist responding on this thread. But I don't have this class as anything THAT special?

For me it's the comparative period... I mean, how special does this class have to be to be the best in 15 or 20 years?

16 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

Jay Cutler, actually. He'd be the anti-Gruden. It would be a half hour of snide remarks, resting bitch face stares into the camera, and eye rolls.

And that would be different from Gruden, how?

[SD_Tom]

12 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

I'll say it again, Josh Allen absolutely terrifies me and I want nothing to do with him. Mel Kiper recently said, "Stats are for losers" when discussing Allen's uninspiring statistics, and that's about the worst argument I've EVER heard when trying to defend a stance. I mean, it almost sounds like he's in the 5th grade. "You don't like the analytical and quantitative evidence of how my favorite qb performed last year?! Yeah? Well....STATS ARE FOR LOSERS! Ha! And my daddy can beat up your daddy!" 

Deshone Kizer struggled with HIS accuracy in the league, and he appeared more accurate to me than Allen while in college. Accuracy is so important in the NFL, and not just the ability to deliver the ball to the intended target, but the ability to deliver it IN STRIDE. Dorsey loves yards after the catch, and hasn't made that a secret. It's one of the many reasons he signed Alex Smith (also one of the biggest reasons I WANTED him too *sigh*). How many times did Kizer complete a pass for positive gains, but the receiver either fell down to secure the catch, or had to jump for it, or slow down....or whatever. All the time, right? Now, this wasn't ALWAYS his fault, as too many times our receivers went down when they didn't have to, or couldn't make a single defender miss, but if I had to guess, we were one of the worst teams in the league in YAC (too lazy to look up. Lol). 

We need accuracy, and more importantly, YAC ACCURACY in Cleveland. We STILL haven't found ways to get Corey Coleman the ball in space, and that was something he was KNOWN for in college. Now, he appears to be a little possession receiver. Just what every team wants! Wait...no...no they don't. Coleman's inability to get YAC isn't completely on Hue or Kizer, as the young man has dealt with two freak hand injuries, but it's still baffling to me that a guy with Coleman's physical skills has yet to basically make ANY explosive plays for us. This is yet another reason why I was desperate for Alex Smith. I felt he could've rejuvenated Coleman's entire career with his precision passing, and if we had Josh Gordon on the other side, Duke out of the backfield, and Njoku in the middle, all of the sudden you have an offense that isn't easy to shut down. 

The pinpoint accuracy is the single biggest reason I like Mayfield so much, and also Rosen (except for injuries). I want the ball in the hands of our playmakers, and I want it there on time and in stride. 

Seems that more often than not (WAY more often) Whenever Coleman caught a pass, he ended up on the ground. He never seemed to catch anything in stride.

[Dutch Oven]

9 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

And that would be different from Gruden, how?

I got the feeling sometimes that if the camera kept rolling longer we might see rookie QBs joining the #MeToo movement due to Gruden...

[mjp28]

On 2/1/2018 at 2:20 PM, Tour2ma said:

Bruce Arians believes college QB crop may be “best in the last 15 or 20 years”

Posted by Curtis Crabtree on February 1, 2018, 1:03 AM EST

Getty Images

Bruce Arians may not be coaching the Arizona Cardinals anymore, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still invested in the game he coached for 42 years.

In an interview with Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com at the Waste Management Open on Wednesday, Arians spoke glowingly about the group of college quarterbacks eligible to be drafted in April.

“Oh, I think it’s outstanding,” Arians said. “Maybe the best in 15 or 20 years. The number of quality guys with height, stature, arms, statistics… I really wish I had the chance to meet each and every one and do all the evaluations but I think right now you could be sitting at 14 and get a quarterback. People are going to start trading up and everything but there’s enough quality guys to go around for everybody.

Arians’ former team needs a quarterback following the retirement of Carson Palmer after the season. They will certainly be one of the teams pouring time into evaluations of all of the quarterbacks available in the class.

Arians said there’s a lot of quarterbacks that have made an impression on him from this year’s crop.

“Talent-wise, I mean, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, (Josh) Allen,” he said. “Baker (Mayfield) has that charisma. I love Lamar Jackson. I think he’s got an unbelievable skill set. Mason Rudolph beat my (Virginia Tech) Hokies with that deep ball and he may have the best deep ball of all of them. You could go on and on.”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/01/bruce-arians-believes-college-qb-crop-may-be-best-in-the-last-15-or-20-years/

 or  ? Best in 15 or 20 years, I know every position has up and down years but that's nearly once in a generation talk......or Bruce needs his meds. 

Those early grades sure didn't look like a bunch of 7.5+ guys more like 5.0+ and 6.0 guys, maybe he's grading on the curve? For sure not the Class of '83 but then that's pretty much the gold standard for generational quarterbacks. 

It's going to be a fun few months and NFL camps this year.......HEY SOMEONE WAKE UP BRUCE!

[gumby73]

On 2/1/2018 at 11:59 AM, Tour2ma said:

 man knows his limitations.

 

 

https://www.tmz.com/2018/02/02/baker-mayfield-cleveland-browns-absolutely/     no he don't..have you seen the Cl*ss of Emily? 

[Tour2ma]

On 2/2/2018 at 7:01 AM, jiggins7919 said:

Accuracy is so important in the NFL, and not just the ability to deliver the ball to the intended target, but the ability to deliver it IN STRIDE.

I think you are onto something with your YAC angle, but it is no panacea. Bubble screens that pop would pad the stat... zone Ds would suppress it... etc.

When it comes to throwing accuracy, I don't think there's a stat or combination of stats that can fully capture it. Best approach would have to be grading each throw based upon where it ended up vs. where it optimally should have gone. And even then you couldn't be sure whether the receiver ran an accurate route.

In the face of these limitations the best solution may be the simplest... stick with completion percentage.

 

[jiggins7919]

20 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

I think you are onto something with your YAC angle, but it is no panacea. Bubble screens that pop would pad the stat... zone Ds would suppress it... etc.

When it comes to throwing accuracy, I don't think there's a stat or combination of stats that can fully capture it. Best approach would have to be grading each throw based upon where it ended up vs. where it optimally should have gone. And even then you couldn't be sure whether the receiver ran an accurate route.

In the face of these limitations the best solution may be the simplest... stick with completion percentage.

 

It's a fair point. However, think-tanks like Pro Football Focus devote endless hours to recording and ranking all sorts of crazy statistics, so I'm willing to bet they have SOMETHING that can help clarify the issue. How about, "Yards after the catch on passes traveling more than 5 yards down the field" or something similar. Does this metric exist? I dunno, but I think the info is out there somewhere. 

Completion percentage is always going to be a good indicator for me, but I also can use the less reliable "eye test". This tells me people like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and Tom Brady (duh) all excel at placing the ball in a position for their receiver to run after the catch. Those are all some pretty high powered (uh, mostly Hall of Fame) names, but there are lesser names that also pass the eye test. Case Keenum for starters, and Sam Bradford (when healthy) both displayed the ability to place the ball quite accurately. Bradford has always been associated with stellar accuracy, and he could be worth a gamble. 

My biggest problem with not signing Alex Smith is that we have yet ANOTHER example of our management NOT doing what it takes to make it happen AND the management thinking that THEIR vision is the best thing for the team. Arrogance, flat and simple. Every GM in the past umpteen years thought they could trade down, find a late 1st or 2nd round qb talent, or washed up veteran that could be the answer. They were ALL WRONG. Look back at ALL the moves our managers DIDN'T make. Why? Because they were either too cheap or too arrogant. Couple years ago, we could've had Kirk Cousins for a 2nd rounder. We didn't make the move. We don't have time to go through EVERY move we didn't make, but not getting Alex Smith is another example. And WHY didn't we make the move? Because we didn't want to extend him to a 4 year deal BECAUSE John Dorsey wants to pick a QB at number 1. In other words, Dorsey won't sign the premier free agent qb because HE wants to take HIS GUY. Does this sound familiar? It SHOULD, because it's EXACTLY the same mistake every other jackass GM made during his tenure. 

Alex Smith is 34. What would you say if I told you we could stabilize the QB position for 4 years? The position that has STRANGLED our franchise for almost 20 years. The position we haven't gotten right in so many laughable ways. The position we screw up over and over again when the answers are staring at us directly in the FACE. Alex Smith could've taken us from literally the worst team in the history of the league, to possibly 8-8, or close to it. Do I know that for fact? Of course not, but I could make a very good argument for it. Heck, what if we were 6-10? Or even 5-11? We'd feel like we died and went to football heaven. 

Another GM and another failure due to arrogance. ALL these jerks think they know best, and I get it, I really do. Their brains got them this far and they're used to getting their way. But every single one of these jerks just HAS to make things difficult. All Dorsey had to do was offer the second rounder, maybe a 4th rounder, and a contract for 4 years, $80 million and it's DONE. Browns fans get REAL FOOTBALL for a minimum of 4 years, maybe even 5. Why didn't we do it? Because Dorsey wants to show us just how freaking smart he is. He wants to show us that HE is the GM that can scout qb's, and HE is going to draft the right guy when none of the other idiots could get it done. I'm ticked off and it's more of the darn same. Go back and look at the close games we had this year. Even with our terrible defense, are you telling me Alex Smith doesn't win a few of those games? 4 years is a long time people. Even if we won...say...4 games in 2018 with Alex Smith. That still leaves us 3 more years TO BUILD. Maybe we win 8 or 9 in 2019. Perhaps we get to the playoffs after that. I just don't understand why Dorsey wouldn't offer Smith the extension. It's sickening, revolting, and absolutely proof that each of these GM's is no different from the other. They all think they're the smartest person in the room, and I'm SICK OF IT. Go back and look at that IDIOT Tony Grossi's final mock draft for the Browns in 2017. Deshaun Watson and Budda Baker. It's that easy folks. 

[Westside Steve]

Problem is Jiggy, I don't think the quarterback position has been the reason for the amazingly unsuccessful run, I think it's the quick hook. You can't establish any kind of a track record if you have to change everything every year or two.

WSS

[jiggins7919]

29 minutes ago, Westside Steve said:

Problem is Jiggy, I don't think the quarterback position has been the reason for the amazingly unsuccessful run, I think it's the quick hook. You can't establish any kind of a track record if you have to change everything every year or two.

WSS

Yeah, I can get down with that. The constant turnover certainly helped nothing, but this is exactly why I wanted Alex Smith, lol. If Smith can help us win 5 or maybe 6 games, that would probably be enough to warrant our coaches coming back for another year...and we'd have continuity! Conversely, if we get another second-rate veteran qb, draft a rookie 1st overall, I can just see the "quick hook" coming faster than ever. The washed up veteran will get us to 1-6, everyone will be screaming for our 1st pick qb to play, we'll throw his butt into the starting lineup before he's ready, and we'll stumble and fall all the way to the first pick in 2019. Except at the end of this disaster season, Hue would've given us 3 years, nobody could blame our management for not giving him a fair shake, Dorsey will hire his coach, and the process of failure will continue on. Hue will get fired, our rookie QB will have to learn ANOTHER offensive system in his second year, and he will probably get overwhelmed and completely fail out of the league before spending millions of dollars on therapy and struggling to find a way to live with what could have been. 

I have....foreseen it. Oh wait, I'm not psychic, it's the same thing that always happens to us. 

[TexasAg1969]

LOL!  ^^^^^^

Groundhog day = Cleveland Browns

[Westside Steve]

15 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

Yeah, I can get down with that. The constant turnover certainly helped nothing, but this is exactly why I wanted Alex Smith, lol. If Smith can help us win 5 or maybe 6 games, that would probably be enough to warrant our coaches coming back for another year...and we'd have continuity! Conversely, if we get another second-rate veteran qb, draft a rookie 1st overall, I can just see the "quick hook" coming faster than ever. The washed up veteran will get us to 1-6, everyone will be screaming for our 1st pick qb to play, we'll throw his butt into the starting lineup before he's ready, and we'll stumble and fall all the way to the first pick in 2019. Except at the end of this disaster season, Hue would've given us 3 years, nobody could blame our management for not giving him a fair shake, Dorsey will hire his coach, and the process of failure will continue on. Hue will get fired, our rookie QB will have to learn ANOTHER offensive system in his second year, and he will probably get overwhelmed and completely fail out of the league before spending millions of dollars on therapy and struggling to find a way to live with what could have been. 

I have....foreseen it. Oh wait, I'm not psychic, it's the same thing that always happens to us. 

And that's why I was against getting rid of Josh McCown and am for bringing him back if the offensive system will even be similar. I remember him saying he was looking forward to spending two years and the same system. Didn't come to pass. No pun intended. But I've only ever thought of Alex Smith as being a placeholder who can do well if the team is firing on all cylinders. Pretty much same thing with Kirk Cousins.

How long has Marvin Lewis been in Cincinnati? Given our experience we'd be happy with those ups and downs for a while.   How long until Blake Bortles had a good game or two? 

WSS

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

1. It's a fair point. However, think-tanks like Pro Football Focus devote endless hours to recording and ranking all sorts of crazy statistics, so I'm willing to bet they have SOMETHING that can help clarify the issue. How about, "Yards after the catch on passes traveling more than 5 yards down the field" or something similar. Does this metric exist? I dunno, but I think the info is out there somewhere. 
2. Completion percentage is always going to be a good indicator for me, but I also can use the less reliable "eye test". This tells me people like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and Tom Brady (duh) all excel at placing the ball in a position for their receiver to run after the catch. Those are all some pretty high powered (uh, mostly Hall of Fame) names, but there are lesser names that also pass the eye test. Case Keenum for starters, and Sam Bradford (when healthy) both displayed the ability to place the ball quite accurately. Bradford has always been associated with stellar accuracy, and he could be worth a gamble. 
3. My biggest problem with not signing Alex Smith is that we have yet ANOTHER example of our management NOT doing what it takes to make it happen AND the management thinking that THEIR vision is the best thing for the team. Arrogance, flat and simple. Every GM in the past umpteen years thought they could trade down, find a late 1st or 2nd round qb talent, or washed up veteran that could be the answer. They were ALL WRONG. Look back at ALL the moves our managers DIDN'T make. Why? Because they were either too cheap or too arrogant. Couple years ago, we could've had Kirk Cousins for a 2nd rounder. We didn't make the move. We don't have time to go through EVERY move we didn't make, but not getting Alex Smith is another example. And WHY didn't we make the move? Because we didn't want to extend him to a 4 year deal BECAUSE John Dorsey wants to pick a QB at number 1. In other words, Dorsey won't sign the premier free agent qb because HE wants to take HIS GUY. Does this sound familiar? It SHOULD, because it's EXACTLY the same mistake every other jackass GM made during his tenure. 
4. Alex Smith is 34. What would you say if I told you we could stabilize the QB position for 4 years? The position that has STRANGLED our franchise for almost 20 years. The position we haven't gotten right in so many laughable ways. The position we screw up over and over again when the answers are staring at us directly in the FACE. Alex Smith could've taken us from literally the worst team in the history of the league, to possibly 8-8, or close to it. Do I know that for fact? Of course not, but I could make a very good argument for it. Heck, what if we were 6-10? Or even 5-11? We'd feel like we died and went to football heaven. 
5. Another GM and another failure due to arrogance. ALL these jerks think they know best, and I get it, I really do. Their brains got them this far and they're used to getting their way. But every single one of these jerks just HAS to make things difficult. All Dorsey had to do was offer the second rounder, maybe a 4th rounder, and a contract for 4 years, $80 million and it's DONE. Browns fans get REAL FOOTBALL for a minimum of 4 years, maybe even 5. Why didn't we do it? Because Dorsey wants to show us just how freaking smart he is. He wants to show us that HE is the GM that can scout qb's, and HE is going to draft the right guy when none of the other idiots could get it done. I'm ticked off and it's more of the darn same. Go back and look at the close games we had this year. Even with our terrible defense, are you telling me Alex Smith doesn't win a few of those games? 4 years is a long time people. Even if we won...say...4 games in 2018 with Alex Smith. That still leaves us 3 more years TO BUILD. Maybe we win 8 or 9 in 2019. Perhaps we get to the playoffs after that. I just don't understand why Dorsey wouldn't offer Smith the extension. It's sickening, revolting, and absolutely proof that each of these GM's is no different from the other. They all think they're the smartest person in the room, and I'm SICK OF IT. Go back and look at that IDIOT Tony Grossi's final mock draft for the Browns in 2017. Deshaun Watson and Budda Baker. It's that easy folks. 

1. I am sure there are advanced stats out there we could use... if we had access to them.
2. Eye test is valid, but who among us see any other team's QB enough to honestly evaluate them?
3. Yes... you look back and you see players we missed. Textbook MMQB... or hindsight. At the time... in the moment... all any FO can do is evaluate the value of who/what they have vs. who/what is available. "Cheap" and "arrogant" are your personal ascriptions of their limitations to which I do not subscribe. Two years ago Cousins was coming off of his first decent season; he was not worthy of a second. The length of Smith's contract had no bearing on the team with whom KC traded.
4. Smith for 4 years? I'd say we'd missed on at least two more QB draft picks.
5. A 2nd and a 4th? No way KC takes that... and no way should Grossi be our GM...

[jiggins7919]

20 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

1. I am sure there are advanced stats out there we could use... if we had access to them.
2. Eye test is valid, but who among us see any other team's QB enough to honestly evaluate them?
3. Yes... you look back and you see players we missed. Textbook MMQB... or hindsight. At the time... in the moment... all any FO can do is evaluate the value of who/what they have vs. who/what is available. "Cheap" and "arrogant" are your personal ascriptions of their limitations to which I do not subscribe. Two years ago Cousins was coming off of his first decent season; he was not worthy of a second. The length of Smith's contract had no bearing on the team with whom KC traded.
4. Smith for 4 years? I'd say we'd missed on at least two more QB draft picks.
5. A 2nd and a 4th? No way KC takes that... and no way should Grossi be our GM...

Hehehe. Totally agree Grossi should not be our GM. I was just pointing out that if THAT a-hole can make solid first round decisions, skilled football minds should be able to! 

[LogicIsForSquares]

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/2/8/16953726/krupkas-baker-mayfield-film-room

Second in this series of articles for 2018 QB Class.

[tiamat63]

2 hours ago, LogicIsForSquares said:

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/2/8/16953726/krupkas-baker-mayfield-film-room

Second in this series of articles for 2018 QB Class.

I still can't get past the "manziel was talented" part.   As I remember the DBN crowd pimping him pretty hard at one point. 

[LogicIsForSquares]

33 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

I still can't get past the "manziel was talented" part.   As I remember the DBN crowd pimping him pretty hard at one point. 

You weren’t enamored with his ability to run around long enough to heave up 50/50 balls to Mike Evans? 

[tiamat63]

17 minutes ago, LogicIsForSquares said:

You weren’t enamored with his ability to run around long enough to heave up 50/50 balls to Mike Evans? 

He did moon ball the Shmuck out of some passes... I give him that.  

[Dutch Oven]

7 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

I still can't get past the "manziel was talented" part.   As I remember the DBN crowd pimping him pretty hard at one point. 

There seems to be this narrative now with some Browns fans that Manziel's story was a tragedy of wasted potential, when at the end of the day he was still an undersized QB who had no experience playing from a playbook, had a poor work ethic and relatively mediocre physical talent at the NFL level. 

[hoorta]

On 2/9/2018 at 7:11 PM, Dutch Oven said:

There seems to be this narrative now with some Browns fans that Manziel's story was a tragedy of wasted potential, when at the end of the day he was still an undersized QB who had no experience playing from a playbook, had a poor work ethic and relatively mediocre physical talent at the NFL level. 

And had a substance abuse problem, that should have been a big red flag. 

[Dutch Oven]

5 hours ago, hoorta said:

And had a substance abuse problem, that should have been a big red flag. 

His own father, in an interview before the Draft, told the world that his son at times drank to self-medicate. 

Baffling how stupid a move it was to draft Manziel. 

 

[jiggins7919]

1 hour ago, Dutch Oven said:

His own father, in an interview before the Draft, told the world that his son at times drank to self-medicate. 

Baffling how stupid a move it was to draft Manziel. 

 

Pretty much. Our team got caught up in the hype, and don't forget just how insanely powerful that was then. Also, Manziel was far more than just a run around and heave it up type qb. He was an astonishing athlete, had a plus arm, incredible instincts, a consistent long ball, and a danger to run it in while near the red zone. I firmly believe that if he had a different mental makeup, he could have definitely been successful. Even with his legendary lack of preparation, he still made progress during his last year. Was he good? No, he wasn't, but traits and abilities were beginning to shine through. He looked more comfortable in the pocket, got the ball out a bit quicker, and was moving the office more efficiently. He still struggled finishing drives with touchdowns, but that's very common with young qb's as they adjust to the speed of the league and how it affects timing when everything is condensed inside the 20. Manziel's demons were ultimately too powerful, and there was no way he was ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. Few things in life are as sad as wasted potential. 

We can get this ship sailing in the right direction but we still need patience. If John Dorsey is truly behind Hue Jackson, I don't want to hear any garbage about a hot seat. I CERTAINLY don't want to replace Hue Jackson mid season, as that hardly EVER works. I'm one of the fans who believes in Hue and what he can do. He's probably our best coach since our return, and I'm not in any hurry to see him go. The last two years were beyond rough, and Hue certainly made more than his fair share of mistakes, but I want him to LEARN from those and be our guy for YEARS. I want to see what Hue can do with a QB. With a defense that doesn't give up TDs 70% of the time in the red zone. With special teams that don't completely suck. What can Hue do on offense when he's not constantly down 3 scores in the 1st half? With quality offensive playmakers? Everyone saw what a difference a rusty Josh Gordon made for our offense, and while he didn't single-handedly transform us into a scoring dynamo, the effects were tangible. Don't ever forget that in Josh's first game back Hue Jackson schemed ways to get Gordon open DEEP down the field multiple times. Kizer missed Gordon for 3 possible touchdowns in a close game, and Kizer also fumbled the ball late in the game by holding onto it way too long and missing Devalve for the score. Remember the play where Higgins was open on the crossing pattern in the end zone and Kizer threw it 6 feet behind him for the pick? Perfect play design, but Hue can't throw the ball. Remember another perfectly designed play also to Higgins in the red zone where he was open on a deep out pattern and Kizer overthrew him by 9 feet and it was easily picked off? No qb is going to hit every throw, but Hue demonstrated the ability to get people open during important times. He just didn't have a guy who could make consistent throws in the clutch. Did Hue screw up tons? Oh yeah, big time. Clock management, questionable calls, abandoning the run, and whatever else. But it just felt like Hue was playing a poker game while missing a card (or two). This year he genuinely might have a fully stocked roster, complete with a free safety, veteran qb, and offensive playmakers (Jesus Gordon, please...PLEASE). 

David Njoku had the exact type of rookie season I thought he'd have. I'm too lazy to try and look up what I predicted, but I'm guessing I was right on the money. I probably said he'd have 500 yards and 5 tds, and he finished the year with 386 yards and 4 scores. I was a little off on yards, but that probably had more to do with who was throwing him the ball than Njoku himself. At any rate, I fully expect Njoku to have a MUCH better year in 2018 because the TE position is just so difficult for rookies to learn. David is a worker, and I've heard multiple times just how smart he is from coaches. When you add in Devalve (a sneaky talent), Gordon (please lord), Duke, Coleman, and whoever we sign as a free agent...we're going to have some weapons. My point is, I want Hue Jackson to be evaluated at the end of the year after he's had the luxury of having a mostly complete roster. 

I believe where there is smoke there is fire, and right now our choice at QB is Baker Mayfield. That being said, I also don't believe Baker will be ready to start the 2018 season because of how different his offense is from a NFL style. Going under center, learning the giant playbook, the language, the protections...it will take time, and Dorsey has pretty much stated that we want to win NOW. Very seldom does a team win immediately when they're 0-16, but this tells me we're targeting a veteran qb who will at least begin as the starter. Someone who has been there and done that. A guy who actually might have an NFL victory under his belt....since we didn't have that last year. I always suspected it'd be Alex Smith, and I have to say that I'm not happy with Dorsey's beginning. Dorsey didn't want to give Alex Smith a 4 year contract commitment, and I will NEVER understand it. What is the harm in not having to worry about the one position that tortured us for 17 years? I think it was a colossal mistake, and evidence that Dorsey wants to prove he's the smartest man in the building by being the guy that finds our rookie savior qb. Alex Smith would've been the perfect role model for Baker Mayfield, and we could have traded Alex Smith after two years if we were ready to start Mayfield. I honestly don't see the issue. At any rate, we're going to have a new rookie and veteran qb on our team. It will be very interesting because we also have Deshone Kizer, and he's a guy who possesses elite physical characteristics AND got a ton of experience last year. It's going to be a crazy training camp. 

[LogicIsForSquares]

Manziel definitely sucked. Even if he was a choir boy, Manziel would have still sucked.

[Bigalow80]

2 hours ago, jiggins7919 said:

I believe where there is smoke there is fire, and right now our choice at QB is Baker Mayfield. That being said, I also don't believe Baker will be ready to start the 2018 season because of how different his offense is from a NFL style. Going under center, learning the giant playbook, the language, the protections...it will take time, and Dorsey has pretty much stated that we want to win NOW. Very seldom does a team win immediately when they're 0-16, but this tells me we're targeting a veteran qb who will at least begin as the starter. Someone who has been there and done that. A guy who actually might have an NFL victory under his belt....since we didn't have that last year. I always suspected it'd be Alex Smith, and I have to say that I'm not happy with Dorsey's beginning. Dorsey didn't want to give Alex Smith a 4 year contract commitment, and I will NEVER understand it. What is the harm in not having to worry about the one position that tortured us for 17 years? I think it was a colossal mistake, and evidence that Dorsey wants to prove he's the smartest man in the building by being the guy that finds our rookie savior qb. Alex Smith would've been the perfect role model for Baker Mayfield, and we could have traded Alex Smith after two years if we were ready to start Mayfield. I honestly don't see the issue. At any rate, we're going to have a new rookie and veteran qb on our team. It will be very interesting because we also have Deshone Kizer, and he's a guy who possesses elite physical characteristics AND got a ton of experience last year. It's going to be a crazy training camp. 

I think you are missing the point that KC had to be willing to deal with the Browns as well. They offered a much better package in terms of multiple draft picks than Washington did. However, KC wanted a stud CB to help their defense and that's what they received in return PLUS a high draft pick. The reason Washington was willing to do that was because they required Alex Smith to extend his deal which was between the agent and Washington. KC had NOTHING to do with that extension EXCEPT granting them permission to discuss with Washington. Blaming Dorsey because Alex Smith wanted nothing to do with an 0-16 team being a 34 y/o qb is just flat out wrong. Dorsey did his best. It takes two to make a trade. KC wanted to deal with Washington because they wanted the CB who is a first round talent. plain and simple. Just like the JG situation. Blame Sashi all you want, but he tried. Belicheck gave his boy Shany a sweet heart deal and SF knew it. NE never once gave any other team a chance. It has been proven Cleveland offered way more than that and was even willing to offer the #4 pick but NE made the decision to trade him to SF. This is the exact same thing.

[jiggins7919]

9 minutes ago, Bigalow80 said:

I think you are missing the point that KC had to be willing to deal with the Browns as well. They offered a much better package in terms of multiple draft picks than Washington did. However, KC wanted a stud CB to help their defense and that's what they received in return PLUS a high draft pick. The reason Washington was willing to do that was because they required Alex Smith to extend his deal which was between the agent and Washington. KC had NOTHING to do with that extension EXCEPT granting them permission to discuss with Washington. Blaming Dorsey because Alex Smith wanted nothing to do with an 0-16 team being a 34 y/o qb is just flat out wrong. Dorsey did his best. It takes two to make a trade. KC wanted to deal with Washington because they wanted the CB who is a first round talent. plain and simple. Just like the JG situation. Blame Sashi all you want, but he tried. Belicheck gave his boy Shany a sweet heart deal and SF knew it. NE never once gave any other team a chance. It has been proven Cleveland offered way more than that and was even willing to offer the #4 pick but NE made the decision to trade him to SF. This is the exact same thing.

I realize the Chiefs also wanted a stud player, but it's my understanding that we never even got that far into discussions because we didn't want to offer Smith a multi year deal, and that was that. Maybe we didn't have anybody they wanted, that's understandable. ESPECIALLY from our secondary, but it just seems like another example of our team not getting the guy we needed. 

[Flugel]

On 1/27/2018 at 2:41 PM, Tour2ma said:

Always find Pluto reads to be among the best...

This point jumped out at me. I've read so much here and other places about how inferior the talent around Allen was... how his completion percentage suffered due to drops, etc. Turns out not-so-much...

" 10. Profootballfocus reported Allen had only 12 passes dropped at Wyoming last season. By contrast, UCLA's Josh Rosen had 34 passes dropped, Mayfield had 28 and Darnold had 18. So Allen's low completion percentage was not due to guys dropping balls."

For the life of me, I still don't understand how this kid is getting grouped in with guys like Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. 

His BIG school recruitment or lack thereof reminds me a lot of Jay Cutler coming out of high school.  Nobody offered him a DI scholarship so he sent a best of high school career film collage to Vanderbilt at the last minute. Consequently, the kid from Santa Claus,Indiana found his only DI Santa Claus at Vandy.   He never got them to a Bowl Game but he made them competitive enough to earn an SEC Player of the Year honor.  That helped him Cutler drafted in the first round of the NFL draft.  His NFL career kind of went the same, he pulled off some Kirk Cousins type of stats for some big contracts - but nobody ever mistook him for a guy ready to drive some franchise to a Superbowl.  The one chance he had, he pulled himself out of an NFC Championship game which rubbed a lot of the Chicago fan base the wrong way.  And it didn't help his cause when Josh McCown replaced him due to injury a season or so later only to compile better passing stats and efficiency with the same teammates.  Long story short, there were always reminders along the way of why this kid was never heavily sought after coming out of high school.  FWIW, 2-3 years after Cutler left - James Franklin was hired as HC and they had back to back 9 win seasons inclusive of Bowl Games. 

There's something about Josh Allen I just can't warm up to as a consideration for being a 1st round NFL QB. He's got the arm strength, ideal height, and he can move.  That said, he's perfected a lot of bad habits. When it became time for his team to face bigger DI schools (very similar to the challenge of a starting QB in Cleveland) - this was how he did.  

Iowa 24 Wyoming 3                23 of 40  174 yds 0 TD 2 INT

Oregon 49 Wyoming 13          9 of 24  64 yds 0 TD 1 INT

Boise State 24 Wyoming 14  12 of 27  131 yds 1 TD 2 INT

Wyoming 28 Air Force 14        8 of 11  70 yds 1 TD 0 INT

Wyoming 28 Utah State 23    18 of 26  208 yds 1 TD 1 INT

Wyoming 28 Hawaii 21           9 of 19  92 yds 1 TD 0 INT

Not exactly Aaron Rodgers leading Cal over a more talented USC team or Bernie Kosar beating the favored Cornhuskers (the first time the U ever played for a National Title in the color TV era).  Nothing about this kid shows me he can beat someone he isn't supposed to.  That may sound unfair; but isn't that what's going to be asked of the QB we take in the near future?   IMO Josh Allen should be a mid round QB not a top 4 QB prospect.  What the Flock of Seagulls am I missing about this kid?  I know our buddy Cal is a big fan that likes alter boys and good kids - but throwing hefty expectations on a kid that doesn't look ready for them in an unforgiving world isn't a "happily ever after" kind of story ready to launch.  I hope I'm wrong here....

 

[calfoxwc]

actually that is simple - the first three games were vs far superior defenses than the talent on his offense.

The second three - his offense was competitive in skill, and he led them to wins. Nobody is an altar boy. But Flugels wallows in the same rosenbum mire - stats don't tell the whole story.

For instance:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2580349-why-i-drafted-jay-cutler-and-what-happened-from-there

"But then there's something we only recently began using called the "Human Resource Tactics" test, which gauges various aspects of a player's character makeup. Cutler's "Mental Quickness" score is off the charts. Two other numbers are not. His "Self Confidence" score is average. It should be higher than that. His "Focus and Social Maturity" score is worrisome. "

I would say Allen has excellent Self Confidence and Focus and Social Maturity. Cutler lacked those to a serious degree - actually, rosenbum sounds very much like Cutler in that regard - poor social maturity/arrogant/not a leader.

Mayfield, Jackson, and Allen seem to be the guys with the excellent social maturity, self-confidence and leadership of the group of top qbs.

I sneeze in rosenbum's direction.

[Flugel]

On 2/4/2018 at 8:14 AM, jiggins7919 said:

It's a fair point. However, think-tanks like Pro Football Focus devote endless hours to recording and ranking all sorts of crazy statistics, so I'm willing to bet they have SOMETHING that can help clarify the issue. How about, "Yards after the catch on passes traveling more than 5 yards down the field" or something similar. Does this metric exist? I dunno, but I think the info is out there somewhere. 

Completion percentage is always going to be a good indicator for me, but I also can use the less reliable "eye test". This tells me people like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and Tom Brady (duh) all excel at placing the ball in a position for their receiver to run after the catch. Those are all some pretty high powered (uh, mostly Hall of Fame) names, but there are lesser names that also pass the eye test. Case Keenum for starters, and Sam Bradford (when healthy) both displayed the ability to place the ball quite accurately. Bradford has always been associated with stellar accuracy, and he could be worth a gamble. 

My biggest problem with not signing Alex Smith is that we have yet ANOTHER example of our management NOT doing what it takes to make it happen AND the management thinking that THEIR vision is the best thing for the team. Arrogance, flat and simple. Every GM in the past umpteen years thought they could trade down, find a late 1st or 2nd round qb talent, or washed up veteran that could be the answer. They were ALL WRONG. Look back at ALL the moves our managers DIDN'T make. Why? Because they were either too cheap or too arrogant. Couple years ago, we could've had Kirk Cousins for a 2nd rounder. We didn't make the move. We don't have time to go through EVERY move we didn't make, but not getting Alex Smith is another example. And WHY didn't we make the move? Because we didn't want to extend him to a 4 year deal BECAUSE John Dorsey wants to pick a QB at number 1. In other words, Dorsey won't sign the premier free agent qb because HE wants to take HIS GUY. Does this sound familiar? It SHOULD, because it's EXACTLY the same mistake every other jackass GM made during his tenure. 

Alex Smith is 34. What would you say if I told you we could stabilize the QB position for 4 years? The position that has STRANGLED our franchise for almost 20 years. The position we haven't gotten right in so many laughable ways. The position we screw up over and over again when the answers are staring at us directly in the FACE. Alex Smith could've taken us from literally the worst team in the history of the league, to possibly 8-8, or close to it. Do I know that for fact? Of course not, but I could make a very good argument for it. Heck, what if we were 6-10? Or even 5-11? We'd feel like we died and went to football heaven. 

Another GM and another failure due to arrogance. ALL these jerks think they know best, and I get it, I really do. Their brains got them this far and they're used to getting their way. But every single one of these jerks just HAS to make things difficult. All Dorsey had to do was offer the second rounder, maybe a 4th rounder, and a contract for 4 years, $80 million and it's DONE. Browns fans get REAL FOOTBALL for a minimum of 4 years, maybe even 5. Why didn't we do it? Because Dorsey wants to show us just how freaking smart he is. He wants to show us that HE is the GM that can scout qb's, and HE is going to draft the right guy when none of the other idiots could get it done. I'm ticked off and it's more of the darn same. Go back and look at the close games we had this year. Even with our terrible defense, are you telling me Alex Smith doesn't win a few of those games? 4 years is a long time people. Even if we won...say...4 games in 2018 with Alex Smith. That still leaves us 3 more years TO BUILD. Maybe we win 8 or 9 in 2019. Perhaps we get to the playoffs after that. I just don't understand why Dorsey wouldn't offer Smith the extension. It's sickening, revolting, and absolutely proof that each of these GM's is no different from the other. They all think they're the smartest person in the room, and I'm SICK OF IT. Go back and look at that IDIOT Tony Grossi's final mock draft for the Browns in 2017. Deshaun Watson and Budda Baker. It's that easy folks. 

As much as I wanted Alex Smith over anyone, a lot of people were jumping the gun that Cleveland would be his favorite option because Dorsey once had 5 or 6 Pro Bowl players on a roster in KC that was just begging for the right HC&QB combination.  We don't have the recruiting attraction Dorsey had in KC here in Cleveland today.  Not only that, but the major difference between us and Washington is we hold the very 1st pick of the draft which doesn't command a 5 year commitment to Alex like Washington railroaded themselves into.  I'm glad we had someone strong enough mentally to apply the brakes where they needed to in this one.  Washington traded away all kinds of guys for RG3. Then they decided to play hardball with the QB they liked just so they could go passive-aggressive overboard commitment to Alex Smith?   Do you know what they proved to everyone?  They haven't learned a FREAKEN thing. One sum of mistakes leads them into a mistake even bigger than the sum of mistakes they're trying to overcome.  No thanks - I'm glad Dorsey understood the fine line between good deal and a bad deal in this one.  

As much as I loved DeShaun Watson (had him and Trubisky tied for my best QBs) - I didn't have the gonads to make him #12 in my mock draft.  I took JuJu Smith there before Pittsburgh took him at #62 overall well deserving of all the ribbing I got.  Then again, Watson's durability lasted a sum of 5 weeks which was way more of a worry to me than his talent. I'm quite sure Grossi would have been the 1st one in the media reminding us of this injury had we selected Watson.  Not only that, Wentz' similar style of play also landed him on IR too right?  Philly won the SB without him and I'm sure Grossi will make sure he leaves that part of the truth whenever he wants to remind us how many SBs Philly won after drafting Wentz. 

My advice is try not to listen to or read the shitstarters like Tony Grossi in the papers or on the radio.  He knows trash and controversy gives people attention or the Jerry Springer trash television wouldn't have rated #1 as long as it did.  It's sad to see that's the road he chose because once upon a time I thought he was a good journalist.  I prefer to read agenda-free articles about this team from someone like Pluto.  It gives us the facts we need to make our own judgments.  There's no venom or hateful agenda tied to it.

If Dorsey was this "I before Team" kind of ego Grossi and other radio personalities have you convinced he is - why do you suppose our FO keeps getting bigger if Dorsey's ego just wants to make all the decisions without input just so he can receive all the credit?  Can we at least make it to free agency before we throw in the towel?    Give him the chance a disturbing portion of our media doesn't want him to have...

[Flugel]

1 hour ago, calfoxwc said:

actually that is simple - the first three games were vs far superior defenses than the talent on his offense.

The second three - his offense was competitive in skill, and he led them to wins. Nobody is an altar boy. But Flugels wallows in the same rosenbum mire - stats don't tell the whole story.

For instance:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2580349-why-i-drafted-jay-cutler-and-what-happened-from-there

"But then there's something we only recently began using called the "Human Resource Tactics" test, which gauges various aspects of a player's character makeup. Cutler's "Mental Quickness" score is off the charts. Two other numbers are not. His "Self Confidence" score is average. It should be higher than that. His "Focus and Social Maturity" score is worrisome. "

I would say Allen has excellent Self Confidence and Focus and Social Maturity. Cutler lacked those to a serious degree - actually, rosenbum sounds very much like Cutler in that regard - poor social maturity/arrogant/not a leader.

Mayfield, Jackson, and Allen seem to be the guys with the excellent social maturity, self-confidence and leadership of the group of top qbs.

I sneeze in rosenbum's direction.

Oh no you DITNT!   You would say he has excellent self confidence but the games he played that you never watched slam dunked otherwise. I posted the inconvenient numbers you played dodge ball with. In fact, how many times have you ever watched him play an entire game throughout his entire scholarship?  You didn't even watch the Senior Bowl so it's hard to take your gigantic fondness of the complete stranger you've never committed as much as 60 minutes of viewing time to seriously here.  You really don't know that much about how he competes nor have you tried to. 

And Cal, how many times can you Budweiser Frog us the "yeah-but, he's a great kid."  That's a real game changer on the field of play let me tell you man.  I have nothing to do with why many scouts and fans think Rosen has way more accuracy and consistency than Allen has - just like I had no bearing on which kid was way more heavily recruited out of high school.   Just because you don't like Rosen doesn't make Allen a more talented QB.  Sorry - it doesn't work that way. Allen only had 16 TD passes in 2017 against a lot of corners that won't even be playing in the NFL. What do you want me to find so exciting about that especially in pertinence to round 1?  He had the same coach as Carson Wentz? Oh, that changes everything!  Does he also sit up straight at the dinner table and put the napkin in his lap?  And make sure you tell your readers he uses words like "please" and "thank you" Cal.  That'll make a huge difference. 

If you want to keep going pedal to the metal Dr Frankensteining up a QB that only exists during REM sleep and between your 2 ears then run it man.  The 2 things that I hope keep him as far away from our team as possible are - he's inconsistent and he never escalates the play of those around him. Rosen has nothing to do with that.