Mel Kiper says

[Westside Steve]

Josh Allen? Really?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22134110/nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order

 

Yes it's one of those bullshyt ESPN things that makes you join to read the whole thing but number one was surprising enough.

 

[The Gipper]

I like Kiper...but the fact is....his projections are likely no better than yours are Steve.

[calfoxwc]

you betcha ! Kiper rocks ! lol Here's the question, if you knew you could coach rosen, Darnold and Allen into

a star nfl qbs....in the future, which qb would you take in the draft? It's Allen. He has the higher upside. More athletic,

bigger arm..... The question is, how soon will the qb have to play, how he fits into your community and lockerroom...

   None of us knows what they will do. Right now, I am confused between Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

I believe a ton of judging will depend on interviews. As a tiebreaker, that puts Allen and Darnold ahead.

[tiamat63]

I'm sure Cal will be along to offer the appropriate handy J to Mr. Kiper.  

 

edit:  Let me be clear about two things.    First - I realize Kiper isn't necessarily projecting talent so much as he's projecting Dorsey and the Browns own stupidity and where players will land.     Second - I'm sure Cal will make it an extra special angry handy J.

[The Gipper]

16 minutes ago, tiamat63 said:

I'm sure Cal will be along to offer the appropriate handy J to Mr. Kiper.  

 

edit:  Let me be clear about two things.    First - I realize Kiper isn't necessarily projecting talent so much as he's projecting Dorsey and the Browns own stupidity and where players will land.     Second - I'm sure Cal will make it an extra special angry handy J.

Kiper,...and many others,  I believe, do 2 things:   

A. He puts out his Big Board...which lists which lists the ranking are the best players at any position. 

B. Then he makes up his Mock Draft...saying what he thinks will happen in the draft.

Here is my question:     Who does Kiper have at the top of his Big Board?     He has Barkley at #1 and Chubb at #2.   Not sure how he ranks anyone else...for, as Steve said...it is a paid service...and I ain't paying.  

 

[Westside Steve]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

I like Kiper...but the fact is....his projections are likely no better than yours are Steve.

Or anybody's here if you want to tell the truth. Just like there's nobody on this board that knows as much as the assistant coffee feature for the ball boy. Still he's a national guy and I thought that was an interesting take. If you listen to the video he gets through 5 pics with the Browns taking Berkeley with our 4th. Quarterback and running back in one Fell Swoop sounds good to me.

Frankly I think Rosen is probably the best of the quarterbacks but I too worried about his attitude.

WSS

[Hunter33109]

1 hour ago, The Gipper said:

I like Kiper...but the fact is....his projections are likely no better than yours are Steve.

I don't put much stock in this prediction, this is just an attempt by Kiper to be the message broads going.  

[MLD Woody]

That's not true. His mock would be more accurate than Steve's. And mine. And on average anyone else's here. They have more insider knowledge than us. Projected longer. Etc

 

I listen to the podcast him and McShay do. They hate making mocks, especially this far out. They put more stock in their big board and saying they had 36 of the first 40 players picked projected to be picked, though not necessarily in the right spot.

 

[Zombo]

Here is how well Kiper did with his mock draft 1.0 in 2014:

1. QB, Johnny Manziel - Houston

2. OT, Jake Matthews - St. Louis via Wash

3. DE, Jadeveon Clowney - Jax

4. QB, Blake Bortles - Cleveland

5. WR, Sammy Watkins - Oakland

6. OLB, Anthony Barr - Atlanta

7. OLB, Khalil Mack - Tampa Bay

8. QB, Teddy Twatwater - Minnesota

9. OT, Greg Robinson - Buffalo

10. CB, Justin Gilbert - Detroit

11. OT, Taylor Lewan - Tennessee

12. LB, C.J. Mosley - NYG

13. WR, Mike Evans - St. Louis

14. DT, Timmy Jernigan - Chichago

15. DT, Louis Nix III - Fag Steelers

16. TE, Eric Ebron - Baltimore

17. S, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix - Dallas

18. WR, Marquise Lee - NYJ

19. OT, Cyrus Kouandjio - Miami

20. OT, Zack Martin - Arizona

21. S, Calvin Pryor - Green Bay

22. WR, Calvin Benjamin - Philly

23. DE, Stephon Tuitt - Kansas City

24. CB, Darqueze Dennard - Cincy

25. CB, Bradley Roby - San Diego

26. RB, Carlos Hyde - Cleveland

27. OT, Antonio Richardson - New Orleans

28. WR, Brandin Cooks - Carolina

29. TE, Jace Amaro - New England

30. WR, Odell Beckham Jr. - San Fran

31. DE, Scott Crichton - Denver

32. WR, Allen Robinson - Seattle

 

 

 

[The Gipper]

15 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

That's not true. His mock would be more accurate than Steve's. And mine. And on average anyone else's here. They have more insider knowledge than us. Projected longer. Etc

 

I listen to the podcast him and McShay do. They hate making mocks, especially this far out. They put more stock in their big board and saying they had 36 of the first 40 players picked projected to be picked, though not necessarily in the right spot.

 

Well, right....Again....I think that I ...and maybe you, could do about as accurate a job at doing a mock draft as they do.....if we were armed with the information they have.  The key for them is that they compiled the information.

I would expect them to hate doing mock drafts...trying to predict what unpredictable NFL teams may do.    They like to say:  Here are the prospect rankings....in reality...NFL teams should just draft based on my rankings...combined perhaps with a recognition of team needs.  

And you know...that is basically what WE do here with our annual mock draft.   I don't know about you or others but I will take, say, a couple of the draft prospect ranking sites...like Kiper/McShay...or CBS or Walter etc.  And I will print those out and also look up sites about what the Browns need (or have an idea of my own what they need)....and go on that, essentially trying to take the best player available at that position or those positions that the services say are available. 

I mean...honestly....lets face it....you and I COULD have done better drafting players a few of these years than the Browns FO had done.

Fair to say?

If I were drafting...we may have had Khalil Mack here.   Or Sammy Watkins.   Maybe Bosa or Wentz or Elliott.

[The Gipper]

1 minute ago, Zombo said:

Here is how well Kiper did with his mock draft 1.0 in 2014:

1. QB, Johnny Manziel - Houston

2. OT, Jake Matthews - St. Louis via Wash

3. DE, Jadeveon Clowney - Jax

4. QB, Blake Bortles - Cleveland

5. WR, Sammy Watkins - Oakland

6. OLB, Anthony Barr - Atlanta

7. OLB, Khalil Mack - Tampa Bay

8. QB, Teddy Twatwater - Minnesota

9. OT, Greg Robinson - Buffalo

10. CB, Justin Gilbert - Detroit

11. OT, Taylor Lewan - Tennessee

12. LB, C.J. Mosley - NYG

13. WR, Mike Evans - St. Louis

14. DT, Timmy Jernigan - Chichago

15. DT, Louis Nix III - Fag Steelers

16. TE, Eric Ebron - Baltimore

17. S, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix - Dallas

18. WR, Marquise Lee - NYJ

19. OT, Cyrus Kouandjio - Miami

20. OT, Zack Martin - Arizona

21. S, Calvin Pryor - Green Bay

22. WR, Calvin Benjamin - Philly

23. DE, Stephon Tuitt - Kansas City

24. CB, Darqueze Dennard - Cincy

25. CB, Bradley Roby - San Diego

26. RB, Carlos Hyde - Cleveland

27. OT, Antonio Richardson - New Orleans

28. WR, Brandin Cooks - Carolina

29. TE, Jace Amaro - New England

30. WR, Odell Beckham Jr. - San Fran

31. DE, Scott Crichton - Denver

32. WR, Allen Robinson - Seattle

 

 

 

I would gladly take  Bortles and Hyde over  Gilbert and Johnny.

[Zombo]

2 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

I would gladly take  Bortles and Hyde over  Gilbert and Johnny.

Wouldn't we all.

Point is he had Manziel going #1 and and he landed #22. Things change ...

Zombo

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Wouldn't we all.

Point is he had Manziel going #1 and and he landed #22. Things change ...

Zombo

Oh yea.   And I think he probably had Carson Wentz going #22 and he went #2. Things change!

[The Gipper]

I note that in 2015 Kiper, in his first mock draft had  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota going 1 and 2....and that is exactly how they went.

And see 2016:

1. Tennessee Titans

*Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio St.

Getting the best defensive lineman in any draft really transcends need. Everyteam wants great D-linemen, and Bosa has the upside of a star. He's a dominant pass-rusher who piled up 51.0 tackles for loss over three seasons despite running into a steady supply of double-teams, and he's also outstanding against the run. You can move him around on the line at will. The son of a former first-round pick, he comes in ready to contribute.

2. Cleveland Browns

*Jared Goff, QB, Cal

 

[Zombo]

3 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Oh yea.   And I think he probably had Carson Wentz going #22 and he went #2. Things change!

He did indeed have Wentz at #22

And his picks for the Browns have been WAY to logical. His job is to predict what the teams are going to do and he is failing ... show me someone that can wrap their heads around the Browns picks in advance and I'll be impressed

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607801-mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2016-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-1st-mock

[The Gipper]

In 2017.....Kiper had   Garrett and Trubisky going in the first two picks....and that is just what happened.

He also had DeShaun Watson going #10....and I think that was right on as well.  #10 or #12.

Note...it was 12.

[The Gipper]

2 minutes ago, Zombo said:

He did indeed have Wentz at #22

And his picks for the Browns have been WAY to logical. His job is to predict what the teams are going to do and he is failing ... show me someone that can wrap their heads around the Browns picks in advance and I'll be impressed

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607801-mel-kiper-nfl-mock-draft-2016-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-1st-mock

Well.....I guess the one thing that is totally unpredictable are all the trades that happen.  And the Browns have been so active there. 

So....riddle me this:     We traded away the #12 draft pick to Houston.  They got who?  Peppers in the trade down?  I think that is it.   And what are they gonna get at #4?

Do we think that Peppers and whatever we get this year are going to be better than getting DeShaun Watson?   Not so far  (notwithstanding Watson's injury)

[tiamat63]

I don't think anyone, including myself, has an issue with having the mock order mixed up from time to time so long as you have the right idea on which round/bracket the talent falls.

What I do take issue with is seeing someone, like a Johnny Manziel, yet putting him in your top 3 rounds on your big board.     

[Zombo]

1 minute ago, The Gipper said:

Well.....I guess the one thing that is totally unpredictable are all the trades that happen.  And the Browns have been so active there. 

So....riddle me this:     We traded away the #12 draft pick to Houston.  They got who?  Peppers in the trade down?  I think that is it.   And what are they gonna get at #4?

Do we think that Peppers and whatever we get this year are going to be better than getting DeShaun Watson?   Not so far  (notwithstanding Watson's injury)

Again ... anyone that figure out the Browns were doing at the top of the draft in the last ten years, let me now. Garrett looks like he's going to be a good pick but the picks and moves where they actually had to think is mind-boggling.

Zombo

[The Gipper]

6 minutes ago, Zombo said:

Again ... anyone that figure out the Browns were doing at the top of the draft in the last ten years, let me now. Garrett looks like he's going to be a good pick but the picks and moves where they actually had to think is mind-boggling.

Zombo

You mean to tell me that you cannot make any sense out of all this:

2008  Traded away  picks in first 3 rounds.   First pick Rd. 4: Beau Bell

2009: Round 1: Alex Mack   Rd 2:  Brian Robiskie, Mohammed Massaquoi, David Veikune

2010: Round 1:  Joe Haden  Round 2: TJ Ward

2011: Round 1  Phil Taylor ...after trade down (could have had Julio Jones)  Rd 2 Jaball Sheard

2012:  Round 1: Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden.  Rd 2  Mitchell Schwartz

2013 Round 1: Barkevious Mingo  (no 2d rounder)

2014 Round 1: Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manzeil  Rd. 2 Joel Bitonio

2015 Round 1: Danny Shelton, Cameron Erving  Rd 2  Nate Orchard

2016 Round 1: Corey Coleman  Rd 2   Emmanual Ogbah

2017 Round 1:  Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, David Njoku,  Round 2 DeShone Kizer.

So....lets look at this by position:

QB: Weeden, Johnny, Kizer.....(and if we went back one year would include Quinn)    A BIG swing and a miss

RB:  Trent....SWING and a Miss

WR: Robo, MoMass, Colemen.   so far  SWING and a miss

TE:  Njoku.....very iffy.  Maybe a bunt hit.

OL.  Mack, Schwartz, Bito, and Erving.   Doubles on 3 out of 4.

DL: Taylor, Sheard, Mingo, Shelton, Ogbah, Garrett.    SWING and a miss on the first few.  Maybe a  couple of singles in their at best.

LB:  Veikune, Orchard:   SWING and a miss so far.

DBs: Haden, Ward.    A couple of solid doubles, maybe a triple with Joe for a time.

So...what I glean is that the Browns scored a run or two at DB and OL...and otherwise.....they look like the Durham Bulls up agains Nolan Ryan.

[hoorta]

3 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

Josh Allen? Really?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22134110/nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order

Yes it's one of those bullshyt ESPN things that makes you join to read the whole thing but number one was surprising enough.

 

I know Cal loves him some Josh Allen. If he had Rosen or Darnold's accuracy, he'd be a slam dunk #1 overall. Unfortunately, Mel has overlooked at this point in time Allen doesn't- and I have doubts he ever will. 

And to mock Mel- I will never forget this one...  "mmmmuuuusssstttt draft Hart Lee Dykes". first round pick, shades of Corey Coleman.    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DykeHa00.htm

[hoorta]

1 hour ago, Zombo said:

Here is how well Kiper did with his mock draft 1.0 in 2014:

1. QB, Johnny Manziel - Houston

2. OT, Jake Matthews - St. Louis via Wash

3. DE, Jadeveon Clowney - Jax

4. QB, Blake Bortles - Cleveland

5. WR, Sammy Watkins - Oakland

6. OLB, Anthony Barr - Atlanta

7. OLB, Khalil Mack - Tampa Bay

8. QB, Teddy Twatwater - Minnesota

 

I truncated it to save space Z, Mel did hit on a lot of his first round picks- just not in the order they were taken. Of course you always have to take into account there's going to be around 25- 30% first rounders that don't live up to their draft status, and another 25-30% that are flat out busts. Of course the Browns have turned picking the first round losers into an art form.   

Thanks to Gip's research in the past 10 years we've had two hits in the first round, a maybe in Shelton, a very iffy Coleman, and hopein' Garrett can stay healthy. that gets you  0-16.  

[Bob806]

1 hour ago, Westside Steve said:

 

Frankly I think Rosen is probably the best of the quarterbacks but I too worried about his attitude.

WSS

Bingo, I'd pass on him. Maybe someone offers a Herschel Walker load of picks to Dorsey and he takes it (I do hate trade downs, for the record).

Hey, the Browns did do a decent job last year of not tipping their hand on Garrett. I think these rumors are a great PR thing for the NFL Draft, nothing else. 

[Tour2ma]

2 hours ago, tiamat63 said:

I realize Kiper isn't necessarily projecting talent so much as he's projecting Dorsey('s decisions).

And therein lies the fallacy of mocks... where talent evaluation collides with divining the judgement of others.

[TexasAg1969]

Dak would have been our QB replacing the errant JM, Henry would have been our big back in the redzone that we specialize in screwing up, Foster our best LB and Tyler Lockett would be returning KO/Punts and playing slot.Plus I'd keep Garrett.

We would not have had Coleman, Kessler, or Hogan.

And in 2018 we damn sure would not be picking Allen, especially #1 overall. Maybe 7th round at best, but only if he can kick.

[MLD Woody]

4 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Well, right....Again....I think that I ...and maybe you, could do about as accurate a job at doing a mock draft as they do.....if we were armed with the information they have.  The key for them is that they compiled the information.

I would expect them to hate doing mock drafts...trying to predict what unpredictable NFL teams may do.    They like to say:  Here are the prospect rankings....in reality...NFL teams should just draft based on my rankings...combined perhaps with a recognition of team needs.  

And you know...that is basically what WE do here with our annual mock draft.   I don't know about you or others but I will take, say, a couple of the draft prospect ranking sites...like Kiper/McShay...or CBS or Walter etc.  And I will print those out and also look up sites about what the Browns need (or have an idea of my own what they need)....and go on that, essentially trying to take the best player available at that position or those positions that the services say are available. 

I mean...honestly....lets face it....you and I COULD have done better drafting players a few of these years than the Browns FO had done.

Fair to say?

If I were drafting...we may have had Khalil Mack here.   Or Sammy Watkins.   Maybe Bosa or Wentz or Elliott.

Right... Because in hindsight everyone could have drafted the best players...

[gumby73]

Mel-dock meets his maker at Espn Mock Draft Central... 

  OK. I feel better .... end of April..(let this Mock madness continue)  It just won't matter 

[The Gipper]

25 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

Right... Because in hindsight everyone could have drafted the best players...

Some of these were not hindsight for me. I was in Camp Mack and Camp Bosa at the time.  You damn well know that's true.

[runyon27]

4 hours ago, hoorta said:

I know Cal loves him some Josh Allen. If he had Rosen or Darnold's accuracy, he'd be a slam dunk #1 overall. Unfortunately, Mel has overlooked at this point in time Allen doesn't- and I have doubts he ever will. 

And to mock Mel- I will never forget this one...  "mmmmuuuusssstttt draft Hart Lee Dykes". first round pick, shades of Corey Coleman.    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DykeHa00.htm

I have the same concerns you do about Allen, how much of his accuracy issues are him versus the receivers he has and the protection he gets. If his 56% is what it really is, we should pass.

[Orion]

8 hours ago, Westside Steve said:

Josh Allen? Really?

He DID say that it's VERY early in the process.  

The senior bowl could change Mel's draft board.  The Combine.  Free Agency could theoretically take QB right off our draft board.  And even Joe Thomas could put a dent in the board.

BTW, I feel pretty sure that JT will let the Browns know his intentions before FA.