Houston - our 2nd first round pick

[jiggins7919]

10 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Thanks... I was wondering about the update.

Uhhhhh Tour. You realize that if we somehow get the 1 and 4 pick of the draft, that puts us squarely in Rosen and Minkah Fitzpatrick territory, right? 

OK, so Texans play Steelers next week. Let's call that a loss, right? Here's the problem. Texans play the COLTS during the last week of the year, and the Colts have 3 wins while the Texans have 4 wins. Soooooooo....who holds the tie breaker between the Colts and Texans if they both finish the year with 4 wins? It could be the difference between picking #3 or #4. Might not sound like a big deal, but it could be. And here's something else....the Giants lost yesterday. If they win their last two games and the Texans lose the last two, there's going to be a 5 way logjam for the SECOND pick of the draft! Now, I don't know where the Texans' pick would shake out in all of that, but I THINK it comes down to strength of schedule (whoever plays the teams with the combined worst record). 

Maybe I'll go check it out. 

Edit:  OK, according to my amateur research, it's POSSIBLE, although virtually impossible, for the Browns to actually have the first and second picks of the draft. Here's what has to happen:  The Giants have to win their last two games against the Cardinals and Redskins. That gives them 4 wins but a possible higher opposition winning percentage than other 4 win teams. Then the Texans have to lose out against the Steelers (squish) and Colts (very possible). Then the COLTS have to obviously beat the Texans and then the Ravens next week (good luck, lol). If ALL that happens, the Brownies COULD be picking 1 and 2 in the 2018 draft, but since the opposition winning percentage obviously isn't set yet, it is possible for some things to change. 

Here is the link to the teams opposition winning percentage. 

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

 

[ballpeen]

It will probably end up #1 and #5 .  Fitz probably gone by then.  James will still be there.  At 5 it might be a bit of a reach, but we need a FS in a big way.  If Bradleyt Chubb is still there, i might take him to bookend with Garrett.

[Nero]

34 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

Uhhhhh Tour. You realize that if we somehow get the 1 and 4 pick of the draft, that puts us squarely in Rosen and Minkah Fitzpatrick territory, right? 

OK, so Texans play Steelers next week. Let's call that a loss, right? Here's the problem. Texans play the COLTS during the last week of the year, and the Colts have 3 wins while the Texans have 4 wins. Soooooooo....who holds the tie breaker between the Colts and Texans if they both finish the year with 4 wins? It could be the difference between picking #3 or #4. Might not sound like a big deal, but it could be. And here's something else....the Giants lost yesterday. If they win their last two games and the Texans lose the last two, there's going to be a 5 way logjam for the SECOND pick of the draft! Now, I don't know where the Texans' pick would shake out in all of that, but I THINK it comes down to strength of schedule (whoever plays the teams with the combined worst record). 

Maybe I'll go check it out. 

Jigs, my man. Read my post. If Colts win against the Texans, they overtake them. 

If there are three or four teams tied the tiebreaker is the strength of schedule too. But Houston's isn't the best. 

[Unsympathetic]

As of today we have the 1 and the 5. So there's an accurate QB and .. I'd go S so we don't have to play 11-on-10 any more. 

All aboard the SS Minkah Fitzpatrick..

Derwin James is less sound with his tackling than Minkah.. although to be fair we could draft Derwin and have two starting safeties who have played every position in the back 7 at some point.  That earns us extra points, right?

[Zombo]

Sashi's evil plan is coming together nicely.

Zombo

[Unsympathetic]

Having your entire back 7 composed of athletes who can neither tackle nor clap hands together fast enough for an interception? Good.

Putting those players into an amoeba defense solely for the purpose of creating a mesmerizing computer screensaver on Monday afternoon? Priceless.

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, Nero said:

Jigs, my man. Read my post.

jiggins hobbies include "Reinventing the wheel"...

1 hour ago, Zombo said:

Sashi's evil plan is coming together nicely.

 

[jiggins7919]

23 hours ago, Nero said:

Jigs, my man. Read my post. If Colts win against the Texans, they overtake them. 

If there are three or four teams tied the tiebreaker is the strength of schedule too. But Houston's isn't the best. 

My bad buddy. I didn't see the post...probably because I was so excited about the slight possibility of having such high picks, lol. Let's be real here, the Texans are in really big trouble and have a good chance of losing out. It's not really their fault because I don't know many teams that can win playing their 3rd string qb, but I guess it's also possible they'll get Savage back. 

Bottom line, we're going to have two exceptionally high picks. I've been a staunch supporter of keeping our coaching staff for next year, but I'm now seriously wavering on that. There's a recent article with several people and former players calling out our defensive and offensive coaches for their suspect play-calling (link below). The one is the qb draw from Flacco where I was SCREAMING at the TV (and in the forum) and many of us knew it was coming. Our personnel was woefully out of position and it was a walk-in touchdown. Another play pointed out was Kizer's pick in the end zone. What the heck was the play design there? Where was the ball supposed to go? On the slant in the middle of 12 players? Why did Devalve wait so long to leak out? (who btw was wide open but Kizer didn't see him because he took too long). These plays were truly terrible. Yes it's Kizer's fault for throwing that atrocious pass into TRIPLE coverage, as a FG there makes it a two touchdown game with 11 minutes left in the 4th. Not an easy deficit, but not impossible either. 

Hue and John Dorsey can say all they want that they don't have the right players, but none of that matters if you can't place them in the correct position to succeed. 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/12/nfl-browns-coach-hue-jackson-bad-kieth-bulluck

 

[Nero]

26 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

My bad buddy. I didn't see the post...probably because I was so excited about the slight possibility of having such high picks, lol. Let's be real here, the Texans are in really big trouble and have a good chance of losing out. It's not really their fault because I don't know many teams that can win playing their 3rd string qb, but I guess it's also possible they'll get Savage back. 

Bottom line, we're going to have two exceptionally high picks. I've been a staunch supporter of keeping our coaching staff for next year, but I'm now seriously wavering on that. There's a recent article with several people and former players calling out our defensive and offensive coaches for their suspect play-calling (link below). The one is the qb draw from Flacco where I was SCREAMING at the TV (and in the forum) and many of us knew it was coming. Our personnel was woefully out of position and it was a walk-in touchdown. Another play pointed out was Kizer's pick in the end zone. What the heck was the play design there? Where was the ball supposed to go? On the slant in the middle of 12 players? Why did Devalve wait so long to leak out? (who btw was wide open but Kizer didn't see him because he took too long). These plays were truly terrible. Yes it's Kizer's fault for throwing that atrocious pass into TRIPLE coverage, as a FG there makes it a two touchdown game with 11 minutes left in the 4th. Not an easy deficit, but not impossible either. 

Hue and John Dorsey can say all they want that they don't have the right players, but none of that matters if you can't place them in the correct position to succeed. 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/12/nfl-browns-coach-hue-jackson-bad-kieth-bulluck

 

In the Flacco draw TD I shouted in the Tavern why the hell did Coleman drop into coverage. He wasn't even dropping in the middle, but to the slot (having to cross behind the DE), so he didn't contribute anything and the LB was all alone with the center, who had 5 free yards. That call was as stupid as it gets. We only had 3 people rushing on that play!!! You must always rush at least 4. I'd understand dropping a lineman if at least you blitz with a CB, so you can mess up with the Oline, but that??? Awful.

[jiggins7919]

47 minutes ago, Nero said:

In the Flacco draw TD I shouted in the Tavern why the hell did Coleman drop into coverage. He wasn't even dropping in the middle, but to the slot (having to cross behind the DE), so he didn't contribute anything and the LB was all alone with the center, who had 5 free yards. That call was as stupid as it gets. We only had 3 people rushing on that play!!! You must always rush at least 4. I'd understand dropping a lineman if at least you blitz with a CB, so you can mess up with the Oline, but that??? Awful.

And you know it's especially awful when amateur football "experts" like us are screaming the call, AND the next day there are people writing articles about how awful our anticipation was, right? This is what REALLY concerns me about our team. It's one thing not to have the talent, but getting flagrantly out-coached isn't acceptable. Honestly, how can John Dorsey really feel good about bringing these guys back? And listen, I absolutely HATE fans that continuously call for coaches to be fired, but I'm having a near impossible time sticking up for these guys. What's worse is that we've been scored on by qb draws other times this year, and EVERY time I've screamed it was coming. I'm not bragging, as I'm definitely sure many fans knew they were coming too, but it kills me to see such obvious things develop and our coaches and players not seem to know. 

Back to the Kizer pick in end zone. I'd REALLY like to see Hue explain that call and have him tell me what he wanted to happen. I don't know our timeout situation, but it really seemed to be a time to take one. Before the snap you could just see how immensely congested the middle was, and when Kizer snapped it, he immediately looked middle. It had no chance, and we all know what happens when Kizer has to improvise near the goaline. 

I'm just so frustrated. Losing is one thing, but I wouldn't mind it AS MUCH if we executed a little more. Say we lost 27-20...that'd be better. Maybe even have a potential chance to tie late...SOMETHING to watch, ya know? I'm just so beaten down. I spend a lot of money and a lot of time on this team and it's year 2 of complete misery. I'm somewhat encouraged by John Dorsey hiring, but I just don't see how we can keep our coaches anymore. They look completely outclassed almost every week. 

[jiggins7919]

3 hours ago, Nero said:

In the Flacco draw TD I shouted in the Tavern why the hell did Coleman drop into coverage. He wasn't even dropping in the middle, but to the slot (having to cross behind the DE), so he didn't contribute anything and the LB was all alone with the center, who had 5 free yards. That call was as stupid as it gets. We only had 3 people rushing on that play!!! You must always rush at least 4. I'd understand dropping a lineman if at least you blitz with a CB, so you can mess up with the Oline, but that??? Awful.

One more thing Nero, did you realize that Myles Garrett wasn't EVEN ON THE FIELD for that Ravens 3rd down play?  When Flacco did the QB sneak, Myles was on the sideline and the guy we SIGNED DURING THE WEEK was in the game.  I kid you not, go back and watch the play.  3rd and goal, Myles Garrett, the #1 overall pick of the draft, was NOT in the game.  I can't explain it.

[calfoxwc]

I agree. As soon as I saw them line up, I said "touchdown flacco runs it in" and immediately he did it.

Although, how awesome was that goal line stand? Need two new starters in secondary.

[Nero]

29 minutes ago, jiggins7919 said:

One more thing Nero, did you realize that Myles Garrett wasn't EVEN ON THE FIELD for that Ravens 3rd down play?  When Flacco did the QB sneak, Myles was on the sideline and the guy we SIGNED DURING THE WEEK was in the game.  I kid you not, go back and watch the play.  3rd and goal, Myles Garrett, the #1 overall pick of the draft, was NOT in the game.  I can't explain it.

I noticed that too.

[Soju]

On 12/18/2017 at 8:52 PM, ballpeen said:

It will probably end up #1 and #5 .  Fitz probably gone by then.  James will still be there.  At 5 it might be a bit of a reach, but we need a FS in a big way.  If Bradleyt Chubb is still there, i might take him to bookend with Garrett.

Im terrified taking a FS with the No. 5 overall with Gregg coaching him.  Look at Peppers, he doesnt even factor into any plays because Williams has him playing so far back from the LOS

[LeBrent]

That tankathon website is great!  Here's how I like to summarize it.  Lets assume Pittsburgh beats Houston, then if...

Colts beat Texans - Start at the #4 pick - move up one pick when either of these things happen...

• Colts win in Baltimore
• Giants beat Arizona AND Washington

Texans beat Colts - Start at #9 pick - move up one pick when any of these things happen...

• San Francisco beats Jacksonville OR LA Rams
• Chicago beats Cleveland OR Minnesota
• Tampa Bay beats Carolina OR Arizona
• Cincinnati beats Detroit OR Baltimore
• Denver beats Washington OR Kansas City

So to me it looks like the most likely picks are #4 or like #7 or #8.  Colts/Texans obviously a huge game.

 

[Nero]

2 hours ago, LeBrent said:

That tankathon website is great!  Here's how I like to summarize it.  Lets assume Pittsburgh beats Houston, then if...

Colts beat Texans - Start at the #4 pick - move up one pick when either of these things happen...

• Colts win in Baltimore
• Giants beat Arizona AND Washington

Texans beat Colts - Start at #9 pick - move up one pick when any of these things happen...

• San Francisco beats Jacksonville OR LA Rams
• Chicago beats Cleveland OR Minnesota
• Tampa Bay beats Carolina OR Arizona
• Cincinnati beats Detroit OR Baltimore
• Denver beats Washington OR Kansas City

So to me it looks like the most likely picks are #4 or like #7 or #8.  Colts/Texans obviously a huge game.

 

If you assume that Houston loses both games, automatically Colts overtake them, so the order would be Cleveland - NY - Houston then Colts... As the Colts would overtake them (win the head to head). 

Sweet way to put things up, anyway.

[LeBrent]

4 minutes ago, Nero said:

If you assume that Houston loses both games, automatically Colts overtake them, so the order would be Cleveland - NY - Houston then Colts... As the Colts would overtake them (win the head to head). 

Sweet way to put things up, anyway.

I think the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, so the only way the colts pass us is if they have a better record.  They have the same schedule except the Colts played the Broncos and Bills and the Texans played the Patriots and Chiefs so unless Indy also beats Baltimore they will pick ahead of us.

The draft power rankings page is awesome too.  We basically have the drafts of the next two most draft capital teams combined haha

[MLD Woody]

6 hours ago, Soju said:

Im terrified taking a FS with the No. 5 overall with Gregg coaching him.  Look at Peppers, he doesnt even factor into any plays because Williams has him playing so far back from the LOS

What are you talking about? All of that lack of production is 100% on Peppers. Scheme is irrelevant. We'd do the same with a back up D3 safety. 

 

 

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I'd be fine with us taking a FS to allow Peppers to play SS. If we take a premier talent like James that gives a lot of versatility with him and Peppers (and Kindred)

[The Gipper]

39 minutes ago, MLD Woody said:

What are you talking about? All of that lack of production is 100% on Peppers. Scheme is irrelevant. We'd do the same with a back up D3 safety. 

 

 

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I'd be fine with us taking a FS to allow Peppers to play SS. If we take a premier talent like James that gives a lot of versatility with him and Peppers (and Kindred)

I hear that Kindred is hurt and that they may have to put Peppers at SS....leaving, I believe Kai Nacua back at FS.

[Nero]

1 hour ago, LeBrent said:

I think the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, so the only way the colts pass us is if they have a better record.  They have the same schedule except the Colts played the Broncos and Bills and the Texans played the Patriots and Chiefs so unless Indy also beats Baltimore they will pick ahead of us.

The draft power rankings page is awesome too.  We basically have the drafts of the next two most draft capital teams combined haha

The first tiebreaker is SoS if the teams aren't in the same division or haven't played each other. If Colts win against the Texans, they end up 3rd in AFC South and Houston 4th, so it would make no sense if the tiebreaker, if they end up with 4 wins each, is the SoS, no matter how many other teams end up with 4 wins.

[LeBrent]

1 hour ago, Nero said:

The first tiebreaker is SoS if the teams aren't in the same division or haven't played each other. If Colts win against the Texans, they end up 3rd in AFC South and Houston 4th, so it would make no sense if the tiebreaker, if they end up with 4 wins each, is the SoS, no matter how many other teams end up with 4 wins.

I hope you're right about that,  that would make the #3 pick very likely AKA the best non-QB spot as the Giants will likely go QB.  Also a great trade spot (might not be received well) for a team that wants to trade up for Mayfield or Allen or Barkley or Chubb or whoever.  #4 is similar in that way though.

Most of the rules online state that SoS is the first tie-breaker but none mention the division standings so it could be the way you explain it.   I think the Head-to-Head rules changed from the way it used to be though and that SoS is the first criteria regardless of division or head-to-head record.

https://operations.nfl.com/the-players/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/

"In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.

If the teams have the same strength of schedule, their records against common opponents in their division or conference are applied, if applicable. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, ties will be broken by a coin flip."

[MLD Woody]

2 hours ago, The Gipper said:

I hear that Kindred is hurt and that they may have to put Peppers at SS....leaving, I believe Kai Nacua back at FS.

That would be, interesting 

[hoorta]

7 hours ago, Nero said:

If you assume that Houston loses both games, automatically Colts overtake them, so the order would be Cleveland - NY - Houston then Colts... As the Colts would overtake them (win the head to head). 

Sweet way to put things up, anyway.

Been pointed out- when it comes to the draft, it's SOS. Head to head only matters in playoff consideration. 

[Nero]

3 hours ago, hoorta said:

3 hours ago, hoorta said:

Been pointed out- when it comes to the draft, it's SOS. Head to head only matters in playoff consideration. 

Then it makes no sense, because the Colts could end up 3rd in the AFCS and the Texans 4th, but the Texans pick would be #4 and Colts' #3, when the Colts ended the season ahead of Houston. I thought that the tiebreaker was SOS but keeping the tiebreaker of head to head between division rivals.

[The Gipper]

13 hours ago, MLD Woody said:

That would be, interesting 

Kindred HAS been put on IR.

[Orion]

Thank you Colts.

We pick #1 & #4.

[Tour2ma]

16 minutes ago, Orion said:

We pick #1 & #4.

Wanna bet?

[syd]

so you trying to say that puts that pick at #3

[Orion]

37 minutes ago, Tour2ma said:

Wanna bet?

ok....In THEORY we pick 1 & 4.

[D Bone]

19 minutes ago, syd said:

so you trying to say that puts that pick at #3

I think he's saying we'll trade out of one, or knowing us, both........