Houston - our 2nd first round pick

[Tour2ma]

3 hours ago, LBC mike said:

Is there a stat out there showing how draft picks are rated at the time of the draft verses a rating after playing in the nfl?  I am sure it Will show later draft picks being more valuable in the nfl.

There have been "Success Percentage" charts posted here before. They have shown the "hit % falls" with every passing round.

Don't remember this google hit before, but it's consistent with what I remember seeing: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#28c6535a7495

Initial focus is on 2014 NFL "Starters"...

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml
1	178	29.9	29.9
2	104	17.5	47.4
3	75	12.6	60.0
4	64	10.8	70.8
5	38	6.4	77.2
6	29	4.9	82.0
7	25	4.2	86.2
Undrafted	81	13.6	99.8
Supplemental	1	0.2	100.0
Total	595	100

 

Then the article moves onto staying power...

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010...80 games max)
Groups	Median
Overall	15.0%
1st	67.5%
2nd	33.8%
3rd	36.3%
4th	6.3%
5th	4.4%
6th	1.9%
7th	0.0%

 

Next up... performance level as determined by "All-Pro" designation...

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml.
1	83	48.5	48.5
2	24	14.0	62.6
3	15	8.8	71.4
4	12	7.0	78.4
5	9	5.3	83.6
6	6	3.5	87.1
7	2	1.2	88.3
Undrafted	18	10.5	98.8
Supplemental	2	1.2	100.0
Total	171	100

 

What the article stops short of is the impact of position drafted as a factor on any of the measures analyzed.

 

 

[Tour2ma]

4 hours ago, Nero said:

The same people that cry about passing on Watson are the ones that complain about Coleman suffering two long injuries in his first two years. 

You never know how well you draft has been until you've seen your draftees some years. If Watson keeps having injuries I guess nobody will complain we passed on him. 

Wentz is another story, because we at least have seen him through 2 seasons and he has shown he's a hell of a player. 

Agree on Watson... The parallels with Teddy B's "non-contact" knee injury in practice are there. I did not remember that Deshaun had a history of injuries at Clemson where in 2014 he suffered:

Nov 20, 2014	Non-NFL	Knee ACL Tear Grade 3	Suffered torn ACL in practice. Watson played with the injury vs. South Carolina on 11/29/14.
Nov 15, 2014	Non-NFL	Knee ICL Strain Grade 2
Oct 11, 2014	Non-NFL	Hand Finger Fracture
Apr 7, 2014	Non-NFL	Shoulder Clavical Fracture	Suffered a "slight crack" in his collarbone.

 

The above is from an interesting site I just stumbled across: http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/

The heart of Watson's page is:

Deshaun Watson Player Overview

Watson's bad injury luck surfaced in 2014 with a torn ACL, a broken collarbone, a sprained knee and a fractured finger. He's not the thickest QB at 6'2, 221 pounds, but his recent string of good health is encouraging. He'll battle veteran Tom Savage for the starting job this summer.

Preseason

Chance of Injury in 2017:	66.7%
Chance of Injury per Game:	6.6%
Projected Games missed for 2017:	3.5

Makes me wonder if he was a medical DQ in some FOs.... including ours.

No such case to be made for Wentz... but his "Durability Rating" is only 2 out of 5(?) http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/carson-wentz/7450

And Kizer? Interestingly his durability rating is the highest available, 5/5. http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/deshone-kizer/7745

 

[The Gipper]

5 hours ago, LBC mike said:

Is there a stat out there showing how draft picks are rated at the time of the draft verses a rating after playing in the nfl?  I am sure it Will show later draft picks being more valuable in the nfl.

 A few years back I did something like this.   It was a basic algorithm that combined a players draft position (such as #1 or @3 overall, etc)   with his Pro Football Reference Career Production Average. 

The lower the combined score, the bigger the bust.

If I recall correctly, the guys that proved to be the biggest bust using this method were some names you could probably guess:   Ryan Leaf, Art Schlicter  etc. 

Jamarcus Russell was bad...but not as low as you might expect. 

The reverse could probably be true as well.  If you took Tom Brady's  199 draft position, plus his very high Career Production average...you may see he could very well have the highest score of all time.  

Here are some examples:

Peyton Manning does have the highest CA in history with 271 points.  His draft position was #1.  So, he scores  a 272 score.

Tom Brady on the other hand currently has a 236 CA....but was taken #199.   His score is 435.

This is obviously a totally unscientific method ...but it can be fun.

Take Ryan Leaf:    He was drafted #2....and his CA was a mere  1.    For a total of 3.   (that may take the cake of anyone ever)

Schlichter:  Drafted #4...with a CA of 4.  For a total of 8.    

Note:  These can only go back so far.  CA not computed before late 50s/early 60s.

Maybe elsewhere I could do this with past Browns top picks.

[The Gipper]

Here is some data on some  Browns.   Combine draft positon with CA. :  CA in first column,  draft slot in second column, plus combined:

Brian Sipe:  75  plus 330   total 405

Ernest Byner: 82 plus 280  total 362

Doug Dieken: 67 plus 142   total  209

Leroy Kelly: 87 plus 110  total 197

Bobby Mitchell: 88 plus 84  total 172

Gene Hickerson: 86 plus 78  total 164

Michael Dean Perry 83 plus 50  total 133

Paul Warfield:  106 plus 11  total  115

Jim Brown:  108 plus 6  total 114

finger Schafrath:  89 plus 23  total 112

Clay Matthews: 94 plus 12  total 106

As you can see....late draftees who do well  earn a lot of points due to their draft slot.

 

[The Gipper]

And here is the down side.   I can only go back so far with this as the CA was not calculated for persons prior to like the early 60s.

Mike Junkin  3  plus 5  total 8     (this would make him the worst draft pick in Browns history...at least since the merger or thereabouts)

Justin Gilbert  4  plus 8   total 12  (of course...he could have a long career ahead of him......NOT)

Barkevious Mingo: 12  plus 6  total 18  (same for him....may not be done...but he seems done)

Trent Richardson:  17 plus 3  total 20  (I don't think he is in the league, is he?  Canada?)

Mack Mitchell: 17 plus 5  total 22

Clifford Charlton 3 plus 21  total 24

Brady Quinn 2 plus 22  total 24

Steve Holden 10 plus 16 total 26

Tommy Vardell 19 plus 9  total 28

Above we have a fair Browns Hall of Infamy.   The biggest draft busts in the last 50 years.

[jiggins7919]

The #1 WR coming out in most circles is Calvin Ridley from Alabama, but I think the guy who has my attention is Courtland Sutton from SMU.  He's listed at 6'4 218 pounds, and from what I read about him, he plays like Mike Evans for the Bucs.  He's a guy who excels at "high-pointing" the ball and coming down with it, and for those who read anything I write, they know THAT'S what I'm looking for right now.  I want a guy who can make the play in the end zone on a ball that might not be perfect, or someone who can make the tough 3rd down when he isn't "open".  I obviously don't love the fact he plays for SMU, and I REALLY don't like the fact that he had 1 catch for zero yards against TCU...their toughest game.  So when the competition notched up, he wasn't able to be there for his team.  Now, I'm not going to put that ALL on him, but it's concerning.  Also, I haven't done hardly any research on the guy, but the brief details I've read about him seem positive for what WE NEED.  

[calfoxwc]

I have Ridley right up there - but Sutton is also good  - only knock is, he is more of a long strider

that doesn't have the explosiveness to get out of his breaks and get open. I believe that is what happened to him

when he faced the TCU secondary.

[Tour2ma]

Agility is generally not the forte of extra tall WRs, and their naturally longer stride length/slower step rate is a determinative factor, but there are exceptions.

[Dutch Oven]

6 hours ago, Tour2ma said:

Agility is generally not the forte of extra tall WRs, and their naturally longer stride length/slower step rate is a determinative factor, but there are exceptions.

This is the reason you rarely see corners taller than 6'1'" too

[The Gipper]

21 minutes ago, Dutch Oven said:

This is the reason you rarely see corners taller than 6'1'" too

Why do you see no white corners?   Actual fact:  there is not a single white cornerback on any NFL roster. 

[Dutch Oven]

28 minutes ago, The Gipper said:

Why do you see no white corners?   Actual fact:  there is not a single white cornerback on any NFL roster. 

Because crackers are slow, have no rhythm, and can't jump?

[thenew23]

As far as WR goes, we need 2 types of guys...  

1) A WR that can separate, is quick enough to get open early and get YAC, and has great hands. When it's 3rd down you need that quick reliable guy bc the pressure on the QB is coming faster.  Guys like K.Allen, Thielen, AB, Edelman, D.Baldwin, G.Tate, J.Landry, and even Crabtree are some of the top in the NFL at converting 3rd downs... which is key.  Find me that guy, and they are usually drafted later (if at all) bc sometimes the big guys are overrated...

2) The 2nd type is the redzone guy.  Now, 3 of the top 7 in RZ TDs are TEs, so it would be nice to develop Njoku into just that, and 2 of the top 6 are the other type of WRs above.  Still, some guys (same as RBs) just seem to have a nose for getting open in the endzone. They have the same skills as the other type of guy, maybe minus some of the agility/quickness, but are typically 2-4 inches taller.

[gumby73]

1 hour ago, thenew23 said:

As far as WR goes, we need 2 types of guys...

Stick with the orange helmets of Clemson..WR-Hunter Renfrow- 127 catches 1513 yards 14 TD's & counting with a QB not named D. Watson..Great hands. Clutch at crunch time, continues even after Bama championship game.. Hunter had sc-holleys in both baseball & football but decided to stay home close to Myrtle Beach & walked onto Clemson.(with Cain & Williams on roster).Walter's has him at #20 going 4th-6th round..Kid's got the heart of Cooper Kupp imho

[TexasAg1969]

3 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Why do you see no white corners?   Actual fact:  there is not a single white cornerback on any NFL roster. 

Well I personally know of one white CB who was a starter for the Superbowl winning Colts AND he was actually 6'2" tall. Tommy Maxwell drafted in the 2nd as a safety and switched to RCB.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/1970_roster.htm

4 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

This is the reason you rarely see corners taller than 6'1'" too

See above 6'2" CB

 

[Dutch Oven]

36 minutes ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Well I personally know of one white CB who was a starter for the Superbowl winning Colts AND he was actually 6'2" tall. Tommy Maxwell drafted in the 2nd as a safety and switched to RCB.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/1970_roster.htm

See above 6'2" CB

 

The dude turned 70 in May!

[TexasAg1969]

1 hour ago, Dutch Oven said:

The dude turned 70 in May!

Yep and still faster than anyone on this board. LOL!

And I still think it's funny that everyone is looking for that fast as lightning 6'2" CB these days too. He was ahead of his time.

[jiggins7919]

19 hours ago, calfoxwc said:

I have Ridley right up there - but Sutton is also good  - only knock is, he is more of a long strider

that doesn't have the explosiveness to get out of his breaks and get open. I believe that is what happened to him

when he faced the TCU secondary.

You could be right. However, I'm not too concerned about speed and strides. Kelvin Benjamin was one such player I watched for years at FSU and then in pros. As we know, everything is condensed in the red zone, and speed is somewhat neutralized. What isn't easy to counteract is size...it's the reason we see so many jump balls to guys like Jimmy Graham. Njoku was SUPPOSED to be that guy, but he's a rookie and rookie TE's almost never explode out of the gates. We add another big red zone target and give Njoku another year to develop, and we might take some positive steps towards rectifying our woes inside the 20.

[jiggins7919]

On 11/28/2017 at 11:07 PM, Unsympathetic said:

i swear to the gods of several religions that I'm tired of defending the notion on this forum that actual rebuilds take time even if every move is perfect..  the goal is to build an annual repeat contender, not a one-trick one-season lucky pony.

 

Even Seattle hasn't won since they bet the farm on a one year gamble -- a particular interception wouldn't have occurred if Seattle continued to have the league's most expensive OL, like they did the one year they won the trophy.  And they've made the playoffs thanks to defense. Offense decent, defense great, and this year's D injuries are the end. 

Cleveland is aiming higher than that, and that's a good thing.. it doesn't hurt that Seattle's second-round QB is franchise-worthy.

 

Rosen at the 1, CB1 or WR1 with the Houston pick and/or the trade-down pick later in the first.

You're not wrong, but I think the issue is that people aren't seeing tangible results in year 2. Nobody truly expected playoffs this year, but I also don't think anyone thought we'd be 0-11 either. Your point about things taking time is why I want to keep our coaching staff, hire an OC, but bring in POSSIBLY a new GM. I don't like Sashi and his vision. I'm not in love with our 2017 draft, although we realize it takes a couple years to accurately assess the picks. 

[The Gipper]

13 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

Well I personally know of one white CB who was a starter for the Superbowl winning Colts AND he was actually 6'2" tall. Tommy Maxwell drafted in the 2nd as a safety and switched to RCB.

Ancient history....I am talking about here and now.  Not a single one in the NFL.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/1970_roster.htm

See above 6'2" CB

 

 

[TexasAg1969]

9 hours ago, The Gipper said:

Ancient history....I am talking about here and now.  Not a single one in the NFL.

But if you are ancient it's more like contemporary history.

[The Gipper]

18 hours ago, TexasAg1969 said:

But if you are ancient it's more like contemporary history.

In has been like 10 years since a white CB has played.  In terms of football player life cycles...that is a long time.

[LondonBrown]

Picks #1 and #7 as it stands I believe? 

[D Bone]

3 minutes ago, LondonBrown said:

Picks #1 and #7 as it stands I believe? 

I'm guessing there's no way we actually pick a player with both picks...... Sashi will trade out of one - or both. 

[TexasAg1969]

4 minutes ago, LondonBrown said:

Picks #1 and #7 as it stands I believe? 

They are tied with the Bucs for #7 so depends on SOS.

[Nero]

Just now, D Bone said:

I'm guessing there's no way we actually pick a player with both picks...... Sashi will trade out of one - or both. 

I bet he'll pick a QB with the #1 and trade down with the Houston pick, because there are going to be many teams interested in being in the top 10 I believe (being a draft with many QBs). 

[LondonBrown]

1 minute ago, TexasAg1969 said:

They are tied with the Bucs for #7 so depends on SOS.

Thanks, they’ve got the Niners next week and I think they’ll lose. Could get better. 

[TexasAg1969]

5 minutes ago, LondonBrown said:

Thanks, they’ve got the Niners next week and I think they’ll lose. Could get better. 

Bucs play Detroit and I saw that Stafford had a hurt throwing hand today.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/12/3/16730898/matthew-stafford-leaves-game-vs-ravens-apparent-hand-injury

[Orion]

#7 I believe.

Houston still plays the 9'ers and Colts though.

[Dutch Oven]

2 hours ago, Nero said:

I bet he'll pick a QB with the #1 and trade down with the Houston pick, because there are going to be many teams interested in being in the top 10 I believe (being a draft with many QBs). 

You might be right.

But holy hell, this team does not need more draft picks. They will most likely have four picks in the top 40 or so picks. If anything they should trade UP and go strictly for QUALITY, not quantity in this draft.

[Nero]

7 hours ago, Dutch Oven said:

You might be right.

But holy hell, this team does not need more draft picks. They will most likely have four picks in the top 40 or so picks. If anything they should trade UP and go strictly for QUALITY, not quantity in this draft.

You may hate me for what I'm about to say, but I would trade down if we went from #7 to #12, for example, in exchange for some picks in this very draft and the next. 

It would most likely be because our trade partner and another team between #7 and #12 want a QB, so probably between the pick we had and the one we changed our position with, we will really miss 3 spots because we already have our QB. Then we take BPA (#12 is still a good position) and maybe by the end of the Day 1 we have more picks for Day 2 and 3, and next draft. 

And it would give us a bigger chance to trade up maybe into 1st round with any or your early 2nd round picks, like we did last year, so we would have 3 first round picks. 

It would be different if we had to trade down many spots, like this year when we went to #25, if I recall correctly.