OldBrownsFan Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 A professor who has accurately predicted the victor of every White House race since 1984 is not budging from his bet that Donald Trump will win this year. “By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory,” Allan J. Lichtman, professor of history at American University, told The Washington Post in an interview published Friday. Lichtman told the newspaper his system revolves around a set of 13 true or false statements about the party currently holding the White House. The scholar said if six or more statements are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency come Election Day. “Early on, the keys were inconclusive,” Lichtman said of the 2016 race. "And since that time, that sixth key has turned against the Democrats. The decisive factor, he says, is the strength of third-party candidates. Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson could siphon off 5 percent or more of the popular vote, based on current polling. “That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats.” Lichtman added his system currently foretells the Republican nominee winning the presidency, but that could change depending on two factors. “[Johnson] could slip below that, which would shift the prediction,” he said of the Libertarian’s polling numbers, which would remove a "key" against the Democrats. “The second qualification is Donald Trump. We have never seen anyone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of [former President] Abraham Lincoln in 1860." Recent polls at both the national and state levels show a tightening race between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Trump less than two weeks from Election Day, though Clinton maintains a lead in most battlegrounds. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303239-prof-correct-on-30-years-of-elections-trump-will-win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldBrownsFan Posted October 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 ABC News presidential tracking poll shows Clinton support CRATERINGhttp://therightscoop.com/abc-news-presidential-tracking-poll-shows-clinton-support-cratering/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieHardBrownsFan Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbedward Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 His model is based on primary turnouts and such - he made this prediction awhile ago and just doubled down on it. It's become pretty clear the past week that Trump is back on the menu - many Johnson supporters making the switch in the polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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