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#1 vs. #2


The Gipper

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This is not about boxing or college football basketball #1 vs. #2.....it is about the NFL draft. Here I list the #1 and the #2 draft picks going back to 1970...and I am bolding those who I believe had the best career. So, lets see how these things shake out. A few years I cannot decide and I will note those. # means HOF player:

 

1970 Terry Bradshaw# vs. Mike McCoy

1971 Jim Plunkett vs. Archie Manning

1972 Walt Patulski vs. Sherman White

1973 John Matuscak vs. Bert Jones

1974 Too Tall Jones vs. Bo Mathews

1975 Steve Bartkowski vs. Randy White#

1976 Leroy Selmon# vs. Steve Niehaus

1977 Ricky Bell vs. Tony Dorsett#

1978 Earl Campbell vs. Art Still

1979 Tom Cousineau vs. Mike Bell.....first up for grabs...both bust material

1980 Billy Sims vs. Lam Jones

1981 George Rogers vs. Lawrence Taylor#

1982 Ken Sims vs. Johnnie Cooks....up for grabs, both not good

1983 John Elway# vs. Eric Dickerson # only year since 1970 both 1 and 2 made HOF

1984 Irving Fryar vs. Dean Steinkuhler

1985 Bruce Smith# vs. Bill Fralic

1986 Bo Jackson vs. Tony Casillas. despite Bo's short brilliance, Casillas had better career.

1987 Vinny Testaverde vs. Cornelius Bennett. up for grabs...both had very productive careers

1988 Aundray Bruce vs. Neil Smith

1989 Troy Aikman# vs. Tony Mandarich

1990 Jeff George vs. Blair Thomas

1991 Russell Maryland vs. Eric Turner up for grabs, both good players

1992 Steve Emtman vs. Quentin Coryatt. up for grabs, both basically busts

1993 Drew Bledsoe vs. Rick Mirer

1994 Dan Wilkinson vs. Marshall Faulk#

1995 Kijana Carter vs. Tony Boselli

1996 Keyshawn Johnson vs. Kevin Hardy up for grabs, both good, not great

1997 Orlando Pace# vs. Darrell Russell

1998 Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf. The biggest disparity between #1 and #2 perhaps ever...at least in this period. Only Akili Smith and Art Schlichter rival Leaf for biggest bust ever.

1999 Tim Couch vs. Donovan McNabb

2000 Courtney Brown vs. Lavar Arrington

2001 Michael Vick vs. Leonard Davis

2002 David Carr vs. Julius Peppers

2003 Carson Palmer vs. Charles Rogers

2004 Eli Manning vs. Robert Gallery

2005 Alex Smith vs. Ronnie Brown

2006 Mario Williams vs. Reggie Bush

2007 Jamarcus Russell vs. Calvin Johnson

2008 Jake Long vs. Chris Long only time 1 and 2 had same last name!!

2009 Matt Stafford vs. Jason Smith

2010 Sam Bradford vs. N. Suh

2011 Cam Newton vs. Von Miller if both keep going as is we could have 2d HOF 1&2 duo.

2012 Andrew Luck vs. Robert GriffinIII

2013 Eric Fisher vs. Luke Joeckel up for grabs, too soon to tell

2014 Jadaveon Clowney vs. Greg Robinson too soon

2015 Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota too soon

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In time, Luck vs RG3 might get close to Manning vs Leaf, but not completely there. RG3 at least had *a* productive year before flaming out (and subsequently ending in cleveland apparently)

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In time, Luck vs RG3 might get close to Manning vs Leaf, but not completely there. RG3 at least had *a* productive year before flaming out (and subsequently ending in cleveland apparently)

That can never happen. RG3 already has a Pro Bowl appearance. His PFR CA is at 32. Leaf's PFR CA was a 1.

 

The biggest disparities between 1 and 2 in regard to Production,using the CA is:

 

Peyton 177 vs. Leaf 1: 176 points

Carson Palmer 100 vs. Charles Rogers 4: 96

Lawrence Taylor 137 vs. George Rogers 46: 91 Taylor the #2

Bruce Smith 148 vs. Bill Fralic 58 90

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Not counting the last 3 years, the closest Race between 1 and 2 players in terms of PFR production average are the following:

 

1978 Earl Campbell 68 pts. Art Still 73 5 pt differential

In this case I gave the edge to Campbell...even though he had fewer CA points.....as Earl did make the HOF...

 

1979 Cousineau 36 pts Mike Bell 45 ... 9 points different

 

1982 Ken Sims 32 pts vs. Johnnie Cooks 40 pt ....8 pt different

 

1991 Russell Maryland 60 pts, E-Rock 52 8 pt different

 

1987 Vinny Testaverde 97 pts vs. Cornelius Bennet 90 pts. 7 pt difference

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Oddly enough....to date Luck has a 45 PFR CA....where Griffin is at 32 pts. Not as big of a difference as you would expect.

 

Right, I think that story is yet to be written. Luck has had some troubles so far, as has Griffin. Sure, Luck is still the better choice, but it's not as clear cut as it could have been.

 

Plus, we all know RG3 is going to come to Cleveland and throw for 700 TDs and 5 INT's over the next 10 years.

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Right, I think that story is yet to be written. Luck has had some troubles so far, as has Griffin. Sure, Luck is still the better choice, but it's not as clear cut as it could have been.

 

Plus, we all know RG3 is going to come to Cleveland and throw for 700 TDs and 5 INT's over the next 10 years.

Ah.....YES

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Even though he's a QB, I'm not yet ready to rate Cam Newton over Von Miller...IMO it's at best a tie for Cam although both are fantastic players. Von was instrumental in his Team winning a Super Bowl...Cam was instrumental in his Team LOSING a Super Bowl.

We'll see.

 

Mike

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Even though he's a QB, I'm not yet ready to rate Cam Newton over Von Miller...IMO it's at best a tie for Cam although both are fantastic players. Von was instrumental in his Team winning a Super Bowl...Cam was instrumental in his Team LOSING a Super Bowl.

We'll see.

 

Mike

Fair point. That is why I said we may have another Elway/Dickerson situation that year. Both superb players. That is, after all, what one should expect from the #1 and #2 players taken in a draft.

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Even though he's a QB, I'm not yet ready to rate Cam Newton over Von Miller...IMO it's at best a tie for Cam although both are fantastic players. Von was instrumental in his Team winning a Super Bowl...Cam was instrumental in his Team LOSING a Super Bowl.

We'll see.

 

Mike

Maybe, but Cam was also instrumental in getting his team to the Super Bowl...maybe more than Von.

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Poor damn Archie Manning. Can never win at nothing. Got his ass kicked every weekend for nothing but 2 sons that barely get touched. My Browns QB since 1999..

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Ah, no. About equal.

I'd venture a bet that the Miller-less Broncos finish with a better record than a Cam-less Panthers.

 

Miller is an elite player on an otherwise talented defense.

Cam is more or less the glue that held the Panthers offense together.

 

Not downplaying the acheivements of Von, but Cam probably means more to the Panthers because, without him, they have almost nothing.

 

This is very similar to the notion that Peyton should have won MVP in 2011.Peyton's absence led that Colts team to a meltdown, therefore he was clearly their most valuable player.

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Maybe, but Cam was also instrumental in getting his team to the Super Bowl...maybe more than Von.

 

Yeah, it's just hard to argue who's the better one here. No clear winner at this time.

 

Mike

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Yeah, it's just hard to argue who's the better one here. No clear winner at this time.

 

Mike

Yeah, I think Miller is far better at his craft...but his position is (in a bubble) much less influential than Cam's.

 

We can all debate the subtle nuances and impact of each position until we're blue in the face, but in all honesty I would much rather have the fifth ranked QB (not Cam's rank, I just picked a number) than the number one ranked edge rusher.

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Fair point. That is why I said we may have another Elway/Dickerson situation that year. Both superb players. That is, after all, what one should expect from the #1 and #2 players taken in a draft.

You should expect it. Unless its the Cleveland Browns drafting. We fuck up top 5 picks constantly, and don't get me started on #22 picks. I would like for someone to tell me a team since the return of the Browns that has totally fucked up draft day worse than the Browns. Even as bad as the Browns. But don't worry folks! We have a baseball guy drafting for us now!
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You should expect it. Unless its the Cleveland Browns drafting. We fuck up top 5 picks constantly, and don't get me started on #22 picks. I would like for someone to tell me a team since the return of the Browns that has totally fucked up draft day worse than the Browns. Even as bad as the Browns. But don't worry folks! We have a baseball guy drafting for us now!

 

Actually, we don't. DePodesta's role is implementing the strategy of winning franchises on the back end. He'll probably have some minimal say, but he's not "drafting for us now".

 

Come on man.

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Actually, we don't. DePodesta's role is implementing the strategy of winning franchises on the back end. He'll probably have some minimal say, but he's not "drafting for us now".

 

Come on man.

Chief Strategy Officer will have nothing to do with draft picks. Hard to believe. Hope you're right
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Chief Strategy Officer will have nothing to do with draft picks. Hard to believe. Hope you're right

Right, but in either his introduction or a later press conference both Haslam and Sashi laid out what his basic responsibilities would be. Very little of it had to do with the draft, more had to do with evaluating other franchises to emulate how they structure their salary dispensation among positions and identifying trends and opportunities. I doubt he'll have any real say in who we draft, more like "hey, historically teams get equal return on this position in this round as they do in the first round".

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The debate isn't over who was more impactful in the super bowl. It's who is more valuable to their team.

Poor choice of words by me... my "SB participant" reference was simply meant to demonstrate that they were on the two most successful reams of 2016... not a reference to the game itself.

 

Chief Strategy Officer will have nothing to do with draft picks. Hard to believe. Hope you're right

I thought it was pretty clear from his intro that DePo will operate at the strategic level... direction of the team, metrics, decision processes. I think I see elements of this in the FA process.

 

Making picks is a tactical decision that is hopefully guided by and aligned with the strategic vision. Sashi was firmly positioned to be the "decider" if a consensus cannot be reached.

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I'd venture a bet that the Miller-less Broncos finish with a better record than a Cam-less Panthers.

 

Miller is an elite player on an otherwise talented defense.

Cam is more or less the glue that held the Panthers offense together.

 

Not downplaying the acheivements of Von, but Cam probably means more to the Panthers because, without him, they have almost nothing.

 

This is very similar to the notion that Peyton should have won MVP in 2011.Peyton's absence led that Colts team to a meltdown, therefore he was clearly their most valuable player.

Well, you would expect any QB to be more valuable to his team than any particular defensive player.

But, just an aside....the Colts, I do not believe would have melted down nearly as bad if they had actually tried to play the game. With Peyton out that year they just decided to tank as many games on purpose as possible in order to be in a position for #1. They indeed sucked for Luck.

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