Some very good conversation on here regarding the strategy of the first four picks. A little surprised that Allen is still in the conversation but I admit that I am a bit negatively bias towards him based on the other QB options.
My thoughts on those first four picks are based around one truth that I think we can all agree on at this point: A QB is going to the NYJ at 1.03. With them trading up the three spots, they were attempting to align with a QB and not hoping Barkley or Chubb (who may have fell). So the draft will unfold one of three ways:
1. The Non-QB at 1.01 narrative: The Browns go with Chubb or Barkley at 1.01 and then either trade out of 1.04 (if they do not intend to take a QB), land the other player (if both NY teams go QB) or take the remaining QB from the big 3 (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield).
I feel like this is the least likely scenario because they declined trading down with NYJ from the 1.01 and have also heard from BUF for the 1.01. The latter plot may unfold on draft night, but as it has not happened yet, I am assuming the Browns said no. It could have been a lack of value on the part of NYJ, but I feel that this move means that they are digging in on a QB, personally.
2. NYG goes Non-QB at 1.02: So, if the Browns go QB at 1.01, the NYG then take Barkley or Chubb at 1.02. This then allows the Jets to take home the 2nd QB and then one of two things happens for CLE: either they take whichever of Chubb or Barkley that wasn't taken by NYG, or the phones open up and they are racing the clock to move down with DEN, MIA, or BUF.
In this scenario, I feel that its also unlikely that NYG passes on QB because they too turned down the Jets to move down to 6. So I'm assuming that they too want to lock up a QB and will grab a 2nd tier RB on day two.
3. QBs go 1-2-3: If the Browns, Giants, and Jets all take a QB, the draft finally opens up. In this case, one of three situations happen. Either the Browns take Chubb, take Barkley, or they attempt to trade down one spot with DEN (if DEN is trying to get a QB) and then will take Chubb or Barkley at 1.05
This type of situation seems to be the most probable based on my above explanations. I'm not saying that its definitely going to happen this way, but I feel its the most likely. I do think that we will see QBs fly off the board and, if any of the teams that are willing to trade up want Allen, DEN behind CLE will offer a narrative that makes moving up seem paramount.
I guess the point is that there are a lot of variables involved in trying to crack the code for the top four this year. Hell, CLE's first five picks all have a shot at starting, and so this draft is so crucial.
I will leave you with another version of the draft that I read today and that I found incredibly interesting, although I don't think it will happen. Twitter is an interesting place for draft porn lol. Imagine the Browns going Chubb or Barkley at 1.01 and then getting the other one at 1.04. Then trading up into the mid 20's and taking Lamar Jackson to grow behind Tyrod. In that scenario, the Browns moved their 33rd and 64th picks, along with their 2019 3rd rounder so that they could put a 5th year option on Jackson. Then at 35 overall, they went with the best OT on the board.
What a crazy concept, but it is rather sound, value wise. So many options are out there and I cannot wait to see how Dorsey uses it to build.