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If Penn State Wins the Big 10


wargograw

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Alabama has essentially played no one. I like OSU's chances at the moment.

I'd hope they could just survive but who knows in this wacky year, and I hope OSU gets spots 2 or 3.

 

Ala -10 OSU right now.

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What was the line when they played in 2015?

#1 ALA -9 (12-0) vs #4 OSU (11-1) O/U 57, don't ask where I got that ;)

 

....oh without the mini playoffs OSU was never in that game.

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Lets compare the three 2 loss teams. Right here right now...before the Big Ten title game this is what you have for what I think the committee will look at:

 

What quality wins does PSU beat: OSU. (and note, they beat Iowa 41-14)

What losses do they have: Michigan, Pitt

 

What quality wins does Mich have: Wisconsin, Penn State, Colorado

What losses do they have: Ohio St. Iowa (note...Iowa lost to an FCS school...that could hurt)

 

What quality wins does Wisconsin have: LSU....

What losses do they have: Ohio St. Michigan

 

While right now, it seems that Michigan has the best wins....they also have the worst loss.

 

The PSU/Wisc. loser will be eliminated. How does Michigan's resume...in your minds stack up against these two.....is there a winner of that PSU game that would have a better case? Personally, I think UM has a better case against Wisconsin...even though the game they played was much closer than the PSU/Mich game.

 

What about Oklahoma? Lost to Ohio State and Houston

Who have they beat? Their best wins would be their last two: vs. WVa, and OK St....if they win that one.

 

What about OK St.? Lost to Central Mich...on play that should never have been run. And lost to Baylor

Who have they beat? Pitt...who beat PSU...WVa.....and their biggest win would be vs. Oklahoma.

 

OK, in my view Mich would still possess the better resume than either OK team.

 

 

We'd have a better case against PSU, because we beat them by 39.

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We'd have a better case against PSU, because we beat them by 39.

 

Why don't we wait for Saturday and reshuffle the cards, much easier to get the right answer then.

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Because Ohio State is one of the best 4 teams in the nation. They have played more current Top Ten teams than anyone...and are 3-1 against them: (compare: Alabama has not played a single other Top Ten team)

 

Because the Committee's job is to put the best 4 teams in the country into the playoffs....winning conferences/head to head etc. only come into play when the team's overall resume's may be similar. No other team has a similar resume to OSU's.

 

So who are you leaving out in order to put them in then?

 

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PSU would have a championship and head to head over OSU. Why would OSU get in over them?

 

You're going in circles here. You said Michigan should be involved then are asking a question in response to a question. Defend the inclusion of Michigan in the discussion. There is none.

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Michigan needs a CU win and a PSU win would help a lot too.

 

Michigan has a 39 point head to head win over PSU. That would be hard to reason around. We beat CU by a few scores too.

 

11-2 conference champions>10-2 non division champions

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One thing the CFP committee will never admit or write down is the marketability of a team as a tiebreaker. Honestly, this factor more than everything else being discussed is the reason I think OSU has a firm grasp in the CFP this year. You can easily make the case they are a top 4 team, but certainly the variables noted add wrinkles to it. I think PSU if they win the B10 championship has just as much "right" as OSU does to be top 4. All things equal though, the fact that OSU is a way better market draw gives them the edge every time.

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You're going in circles here. You said Michigan should be involved then are asking a question in response to a question. Defend the inclusion of Michigan in the discussion. There is none.

The point is a lot of the same arguments for OSU over PSU can be made for Michigan over PSU (and other schools).

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The point is a lot of the same arguments for OSU over PSU can be made for Michigan over PSU (and other schools).

 

The problem with UM now is that loss to Iowa though. You can clearly survive one "bad" loss (see OSU 2014), but a "bad" loss and another on top of that hurts a lot.

 

Needless to say, this is by far the most up in the air year of the CFP. But just objectively speaking here, UM is pretty firmly out save chaos this week. If Clemson and Washington both lose by some chance, then this shit becomes insane.

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We'd have a better case against PSU, because we beat them by 39.

Does the committee take margin of victory into consideration? Perhaps....when all other factors are completely eliminated.

But margin of victory is likely the last factor they look at. If one team has a better resume, I don't think loss by 1 or by 39 would come into play. But, if the resumes are equal....then I don't think it would matter if you won by 1 or 39. You won and that would be what counts.

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So who are you leaving out in order to put them in then?

 

Who am I leaving out in order to put Ohio State in? Name any team you want that isn't Alabama. It isn't a question of you leave out to put Alabama or Ohio State in. The question is who do you leave out to put Clemson or Washington in. Those would be the four right now.

If Clemson loses....to Va. Tech...the question is: do you leave them out and put someone else in.

If Wash. loses...to Colorado....the same question.

(I think if Wash loses...they are definitely aufed. If Clemson loses, it is a tighter case)

 

What if both Clemson andor Washington lose? (not likely...just speculating.)

PSU/Wisc. winner? Michigan, OK/OKSt. winner?

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One thing the CFP committee will never admit or write down is the marketability of a team as a tiebreaker. Honestly, this factor more than everything else being discussed is the reason I think OSU has a firm grasp in the CFP this year. You can easily make the case they are a top 4 team, but certainly the variables noted add wrinkles to it. I think PSU if they win the B10 championship has just as much "right" as OSU does to be top 4. All things equal though, the fact that OSU is a way better market draw gives them the edge every time.

You are ignoring the fact that Ohio State only has one loss.....PSU has 2. PSU losing to Pitt matters big time.

 

You are ignoring the fact that OSU has victories over 3 other current Top Ten teams....and PSU does not...they have just the one close win vs. OSU.

 

And, historically PSU has been about the equal of Ohio State from a "marketibility" standpoint. The Philadelphia market is almost as big as the Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati markets combined. The Jerry Sandusky scandal though may have certainly detracted from that.

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Of course. I said that way back in 2014 when people were complaining about OSU over TCU and I said "who is tcu? If you have four spots and a tie between tcu and Ohio State anyone and everyone in the world picks OSU 100% of the time"

One other factor may indeed be "how well has a team played in it last several games". That was a big factor in OSU getting in then.

Not sure it will come into play now....though...if PSU handles Wisconsin....it could be a factor among several others on whether or not PSU would be put in.

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The problem with UM now is that loss to Iowa though. You can clearly survive one "bad" loss (see OSU 2014), but a "bad" loss and another on top of that hurts a lot.

 

Needless to say, this is by far the most up in the air year of the CFP. But just objectively speaking here, UM is pretty firmly out save chaos this week. If Clemson and Washington both lose by some chance, then this shit becomes insane.

Do you say that if Clemson and/or Washington win, they're in?

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Where's the fun in that?

Yeah maybe you're right on that.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Now on your m loss after a short normal bereavement if you're still not over it I'd suggest Valium or if you're not into pills some good Canadian whiskey.....or a few joints if that's your thing.

 

And Meyer vs Harbaugh v3.0 rematch is only what 350+ days away?

 

....just j/k ;)

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Of course. I said that way back in 2014 when people were complaining about OSU over TCU and I said "who is tcu? If you have four spots and a tie between tcu and Ohio State anyone and everyone in the world picks OSU 100% of the time"

 

Agreed.

 

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The point is a lot of the same arguments for OSU over PSU can be made for Michigan over PSU (and other schools).

 

But not really. 11-1 with a better resume versus 11-2 with a conference championship is a good debate. Throwing a 10-2 team into the mix is not.

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