Not so Fast my Friends

[The Gipper]

So? You think that you have to draft a high first round pick QB to take you to the Super Bowl win?

 

Not so fast my friends:

 

There have been 30 QBs that have won these 50 Super Bowls.

 

Of those....almost one half of them did not win the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:

 

Len Dawson

John Unitas

Jim Plunkett

Joe Theisman

Doug Williams

Steve Young

Brett Favre

John Elway

Kurt Warner

Trent Dilfer

Brad Johnson

Drew Brees

Eli Manning

Peyton Manning #

 

of course, 2 of these were #1 overall picks that were traded immediately: Elway and Eli. But the fact is they are not with the team that drafted them. 14 of the 30 SB winning QBs were not drafted by the team they won for. #

 

And even of those that did win with the team that drafted them, they were not always necessarily first round picks. Almost half were not:

 

Tom Brady round 6 #199

Russell Wilson round 3

Mark Rypien round 6 #146

Jeff Hostetler round 3

Joe Montana round 3

Roger Staubach round 10

Bart Starr #200 (like round 17 at the time)

Ken Stabler Round 2

 

Only the following were first round draft picks that won the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:

 

Joe Flacco

Ben Roethlisberger

Troy Aikman

Phil Simms

Jim McMahon

Terry Bradshaw

Bob Griese

Joe Namath AFL draft

Peyton Manning#

 

# Peyton you see now fits into the two categories as he won one with the team that drafted him...the Colts...then with a team that got him later, the Broncos.

17 of the Super Bowl winning QBs were drafted by that team #

 

So, as you can see, less than one third of Super Bowl winning QBs came from the first round of the team that drafted them. It is still probably the best statistical way of getting one....but it is not the only way.

 

My point is this: I am all in on the Browns getting that killer defense.....and then getting the good QB possibly by another method.

 

[Clevfan4life]

There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.

[The Gipper]

There's no question we have to draft up our defense, but also almost just as important is finally getting an O line that can protect somebody. You can have as good a defense as you want, but if your o line lets your QB get crushed.....even if he's the league's MVP...your defense can't stop another good defense. Trenches trenches trenches trenches trenches...I can't repeat that enough. Get BPA trench fighters. If Tunsil was a better prospect than Bosa i'd be all about Tunsil. If TN takes Bosa, i'm not adverse taking an OL if he's 'really" the next BPA in line.

Ghoolie hates you.

[The Gipper]

OK, lets now look at the Quarterbacks who lost the Super Bowl....and for this I mean those who lost it, but never won one.:

 

There are 27 QBs who lost a Super Bowl that never won one.

 

Of these 27, the following appeared in the SB for a team that did NOT draft them:

 

Daryl Lamonica....drafted by Bills

Earl Morrall....drafted by 49ers

Joe Kapp....Canadian League

Billy Kilmer...drafted by 49ers

Ron Jaworski....drafted by Rams

Stan Humphries....drafted by Redskins

Chis Chandler...drafted by Colts

Kerry Collins...drafted by Panthers

Rich GAnnon...drafted by Vikings

Jake Delhomme....UDFA

Matt Hasselback...drafted by Packers

# Craig Morton.....drafted by Cowboys......special case...see below

 

That is 12 of the 27.

 

And of all these, only Collins was a first round pick.

 

The Following DID make a Super Bowl appearance with the team that drafted them:

 

Craig Morton...Cowboys but #....he also started for the Broncos...so he fits both categories

Fran Tarkenton....but also special case. Drafted by Vikings...then spent several years with Giants before returning to Vikings where he then made 3 SB appearances.

Vince Ferragamo...Rams 4th round

Ken Anderson....Bengals 3rd round

David Woodley...Dolphins 8th round

Dan Marino...Dolphins 1st round

Tony Eason...Patriots 1st round

Boomer Esiason...Bengals 2d round

Jim Kelly...Bills 1st round.....but....he too went elsewhere before returning to Buffalo....Houston Gamblers USFL

Neil O'Donnell....Steelers pick #70

Drew Bledsoe....Patriots #1 overall pick

Steve McNair....Oilers/Titans #3 overall pick

Donovan McNabb...Eagles #2 overall pick

Rex Grossman....Bears #22 overall pick (remember when Browns were talking about getting him? another #22)

Colin Kaepernick...49ers 2d round

Cam Newton....Panthers #1 overall pick.

 

Of these 16 SB starting QBs...only half were first round picks.

[The Gipper]

So, here is bottom line: 45.6% of the Quarterbacks that have started a Super Bowl did not do so with the team that drafted them.

 

For what that's worth.

 

And what I think it is worth is that the Browns have nearly a 50/50 chance or at least 45/55 chance of getting their franchise QB from a source other than the draft. Trade or Free Agency.

 

And also note, of this group....only 7 of the 27 were first round picks.

[Clevfan4life]

Ghoolie hates you.

 

ghoolie can lick my hairy ass with that JT hate.

 

[Tour2ma]

So basically, Gip, your argument is the odds of finding a franchise QB are better via the draft.

 

And the odds of the Browns making it to a SB are improved if a QB we draft leads us there.

[The Gipper]

So basically, Gip, your argument is the odds of finding a franchise QB are better via the draft.

 

And the odds of the Browns making it to a SB are improved if a QB we draft leads us there.

My argument is that while the odds of finding a franchise/SB quality QB in the draft are slightly better than otherwise.....it is a very narrow margin......much narrower than what most people think. Roughly 5.5-6 in 10 Super Bowl teams drafted their QB that took them there. That leave 40-45% of teams that didn't.

And while I would not want to give up on the draft method, I do think the Browns should look at other options to get their star QB.

 

I guess it is a matter of being "gun shy". The draft method has worked so horribly for them lately. (though to be sure...the FA/trade route hasn't been that great either: Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme/Hoyer/ etc. ).

 

Moral of the story: don't put all your QB eggs in the draft basket.

[The Gipper]

Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:

 

Sam Bradford

Chase Daniel

Drew Stanton

Chad Henne

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Matt Hasselbeck

Matt Moore

Bruce Gradkowski

Kellen Clemens

Matt Cassell

Matt Schaub

Scott Tolzien

Brock Osweiler

Charle Whitehurst

Kirk Cousins

Luke McCown

 

The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.

That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.

 

How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)

Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.

 

Any other trade bait QBs?

 

Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:

 

Peyton Manning.

[gftChris]

Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).

 

But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.

 

So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:

 

Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop

Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop

Patriots - Brady - draft and develop

Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition

Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though

Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt

 

Panthers - Newton - draft and develop

Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop

Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop

Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop

Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition

Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop

[TexasAg1969]

Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:

 

Sam Bradford

Chase Daniel

Drew Stanton

Chad Henne

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Matt Hasselbeck

Matt Moore

Bruce Gradkowski

Kellen Clemens

Matt Cassell

Matt Schaub

Scott Tolzien

Brock Osweiler

Charle Whitehurst

Kirk Cousins

Luke McCown

 

The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.

That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.

 

How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)

Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.

 

Any other trade bait QBs?

 

Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:

 

Peyton Manning.

 

Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.

[Tour2ma]

Slightly better is still better...

 

As a matter of fact... when there are only two choices... slightly better is best.

[The Gipper]

Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).

 

But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.

 

So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:

 

Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop

Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop

Patriots - Brady - draft and develop

Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition

Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though

Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt

 

Panthers - Newton - draft and develop

Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop

Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop

Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop

Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition

Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop

Well, again, I don't know that it makes a difference if it is the past or more recent.

The 1970s was just as much dominated by teams that drafted their QBs: Steelers/Bradshaw, Dolphins/Griese, Cowboys/Staubach, Raiders/Stabler. Vikings/Tarkenton

 

While I agree that the draft is the better option....I am only saying that it is not the only option.....of the playoff teams...still 1/3rd of them did not draft their QBs. Its not like it is only one out of ten.

And notice none of the names on the playoff list were Quinn, Weeden, Manziel.

That is my point......having been fucked up so often with our draft, perhaps we should drink from a different well. (though...I guess we tried that too, with Hoyer, McCown)

[bbedward]

I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.

[The Gipper]

 

Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.

Yea, I just listed him for shits and giggles. He is done.

[gftChris]

I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.

Lol yep.

[The Gipper]

Slightly better is still better...

 

As a matter of fact... when there are only two choices... slightly better is best.

Yea, but, in theory, it should be more than slightly better. I would have expected the non drafted QB list to be 20%, not 45%....something like that.

[The Gipper]

I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.

The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.

[bbedward]

The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.

 

I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.

 

Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)

 

If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)

[The Gipper]

 

I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.

 

Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)

 

If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)

Again, I am only saying is don't overlook this possible avenue of acquiring a QB.

(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)

[Tour2ma]

I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.

Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.

 

(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)

Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.

 

The shark has officially been jumped...

[gftChris]

 

Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.

 

 

Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.

 

The shark has officially been jumped...

This hissy fit is quite entertaining though. I. WANT. BOSA!!!

[The Gipper]

 

Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.

 

 

Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.

 

The shark has officially been jumped...

Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.

 

None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.

That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....

 

edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.

[Tour2ma]

I agree that it will take years to determine the 2016 draft's winners and losers.

 

The difference is I don't say "no one can know" and then post like I know. And that Gip is what you are doing.

 

But the above is the same as my take that Goff is worthy of the #2... both are just my opinion based upon the facts as I have seen them.

[The Gipper]

This hissy fit is quite entertaining though. I. WANT. BOSA!!!

Not sure who you are talking about. Yes, I want Bosa......but I am not BB8 or the like.

 

I think Bosa is the best player that we can get at this point.....but we may certainly not get him. It is at least 50/50 that the Tits will take him.

Then yes, we will need to look at Jack, or Ramsey or these guys.

Or, maybe the Brown will feel one of these QBs are the man.

I am only saying that I would not want one of them over Bosa......because it would absolutely smack of desperation.

All the QBs we took in the past: JMZ, Weeden, Quinn....were all taken out of desperation....all overdrafted beyond the wildest of imagination.

I want the best player available.....I just don't think those guys are it.

Trade down to #10 ish? Take one of them and get another 1st rounder? I would do that. Yes, and then maybe we can fill some holes with some somewhat lesser rated but good talent.

I would take Ragland and one of these QBs in round one if we could do that trade. But I don't think anyone has the ammunition to make a trade. You would have to have another top 10 pick....plus another 1st rounder to trade up like that, No?

[The Gipper]

I agree that it will take years to determine the 2016 draft's winners and losers.

 

The difference is I don't say "no one can know" and then post like I know. And that Gip is what you are doing.

 

But the above is the same as my take that Goff is worthy of the #2... both are just my opinion based upon the facts as I have seen them.

Well, apparently you are entitled to disagree with me....but I am not entitled to disagree with you?

 

Point is: see my Camp Bosa thread. Like 9 out of 10 ...at least a vast majority say Bosa is the #1 best prospect in this draft.

And it is a position we need......and unlike with the QBs....there has been NO ONE ever say that Bosa may only be second round talent. At worst I think I saw some mock saying he would go as low as 5th overall.

[Mike H]

Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).

 

But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.

 

So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:

 

Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop Second Round

Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop Pick 11

Patriots - Brady - draft and develop LOL Round

Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition

Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though

Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt

 

Panthers - Newton - draft and develop Pick 1

Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop Pick 32

Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop Pick 24

Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop Fourth Round

Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition

Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop Third Round

 

Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?

 

One

 

I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.

 

I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.

[bbedward]

 

Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?

 

One

 

I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.

 

I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.

I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.

[browns52]

Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.

 

None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.

That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....

 

edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.

yip, your are probably right...3-4 yrs...and i don't want foles....no way....

[browns52]

I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.

i wanted bortles...obviously we made the wrong choice.....again......i think bortles, if they build around him in jax, is going to be pretty good....