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Three Years Hence draft grades.


The Gipper

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They say, and I personally believe, that a draft should not be graded for 3 years. So, lets go back and look at the draft 3 years hence. By this I mean lets grade the 2013 draft and see who did well and who did poorly.

This is my method of doing the grading: Seeing how productive the players taken by team in a draft have been over the last 3 years. Yes, I am using my old reliable PFR Career Production Average as my guide. The is the accumulated CA score of the players drafted in 2013 by each team. One caveat....it is possible that a player may have played and produced for a team that didn't draft him. I did NOT take that into account. So here they are, the draft, 3 years hence:

 

A Grades (over 75)

 

Green Bay Packers, highest score: 100 Eddy Lacy, David Bakhtari, Micah Hydy top producers

Detroit Lions, 86 grade: Ezekial Ansah, Larry Warford, top producers

 

A- Grades (70-74 Scores)

 

Dallas Cowboys 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 71 (Bell)

ARizona Cardinals 70

 

B+ grades (60-69 scores)

 

LA (StL) Rams 69

Oakland Raiders 66

Chicago Bears 64

San Diego Chargers 63

 

B+ Grades (55-59 scores)

 

Philadelphia Eagles 59

Minnesota Vikings 58

New Orleans Saints 57

NY Jets 56

 

B- Grades (50-54 scores)

 

Kansas City Chiefs 54

Houston Texans 52

Baltimore Ravens 52

Carolina Panthers 51

Tennessee Titans 51

New England Patriots 50

 

C+ Grades (45-49 scores)

 

Tampa Bay Bucs 49

Buffalo Bills 46

Cincinnati Bengals 46

 

C Grades (40-44 scores)

 

Miami Dolphins 44

Atlanta Falcons 42

 

C- Grades (35-39 scores)

 

NY Giants 37

Washingtion Redskins 36

 

D+ Grades (30- 34 scores)

 

Indianapolis Colts 34

Seattle Seahawks 31

San Francisco 49ers 31

 

D Grades (25-29 scores)

 

Denver Broncos 28

 

D- Grades (20-24 scores)

 

None

 

F Grades (below 20 scores)

 

Cleveland Browns 17 (Barkevious Mingo...11 pts, most productive.....Armonty Bryant round 7 next)

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Note:

 

67 players out of that draft had 17 CA pts. alone......more than the Browns entire draft.

 

Eddi Lacy

Kyle Long

Leveon Bell

Travis Frederick

Ezekial Ansah top producers.

 

Of course, the irony is that the team that just won the Super Bowl had a bad draft that year. Sylvester Williams and Montee Ball were the best players they took.

Think about the Broncos......they won their SB primarily I believe on free Agents: Peyton Manning, Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward. Vernon Davis, Aqib Talib etc.

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Here is also the breakdown for evaluating the draft from 4 years ago. the 2012 Draft. This time however took the scores based on the production that players had with the team that drafted them only....not on what they may have done league wide. It shows that some players didn't stay with their same team. No grades per se this time, just the raw scores. You can assess your own grade if you would like. Best to worst, again cumlative PFR career production scores for all players for the team that drafted them:

 

Seahawks 179

Colts 123

Vikings 113

Dolphins 110

Rams 106

Redskins 106

Panthers 105

Eagles 105

Bengals 99

Texans 88

Bucs 87

Broncos 86

Browns 78

Patriots 75

Bills 74

Ravens 69

Steelers 67

Chiefs 64

Jets 64

Chargers 61

Titans 58

Cardinals 57

Lions 54

Bears 47

Packers 43

Jags 38

Cowboys 38

Giants 36

Falcons 34

Saints 28

Raiders 20

49ers 5

 

Juxtaposition here....Seahawks with a remarkably good draft, 49ers with perhaps an historically bad draft.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000659379/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2013-firstround-picks

 

Looking at that first round:

 

Eric Fisher - yikes

Luke Joeckel - yikes

Dion Jordan - suspended yikes

Lane Johnson - meh

Ziggy Ansah - a hit

Mingo - yikes

Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes

Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for

Dee Milliner - yikes

Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option

DJ Fluker - injured yikes

DJ Hayden - yikes

Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.

 

 

Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.

 

There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000659379/article/fifthyear-option-tracker-for-2013-firstround-picks

 

Looking at that first round:

 

Eric Fisher - yikes

Luke Joeckel - yikes

Dion Jordan - suspended yikes

Lane Johnson - meh

Ziggy Ansah - a hit

Mingo - yikes

Jonathan Cooper - injred & traded yikes

Tavon Austin - not worth trading up 8 spots for

Dee Milliner - yikes

Chance Warmack - titans have not picked up the option

DJ Fluker - injured yikes

DJ Hayden - yikes

Sheldon Richardson - finally, an elite player, at pick 13.

 

 

Some other names in there - EJ Manuel, Jarvis Jones Bjorn Werner, Cordarelle Patterson, Matt Elam.

 

There were a few bright spots, outside of Richardson (who himself is suspended, right?) in DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert (finally had a good year), and Travis Frederick. But this has to go down as one of the worst first rounds ever, surely.

Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?
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Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?

Someone's been drinking the ghool-aid.

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Look at the first two picks. OT's. This is why it's a bad thing to draft an OT or O-lineman #1 overall. Yes there are bust at all positions but what production are you going to get from someone who doesn't touch the ball?

 

So start 11 QBs on offense?

 

Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.

 

Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.

 

More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here ( :) ) warned of that danger.

 

Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.

 

2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!

 

Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...

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They say, and I personally believe, that a draft should not be graded for 3 years. So, lets go back and look at the draft 3 years hence. By this I mean lets grade the 2013 draft and see who did well and who did poorly.

This is my method of doing the grading: Seeing how productive the players taken by team in a draft have been over the last 3 years. Yes, I am using my old reliable PFR Career Production Average as my guide. The is the accumulated CA score of the players drafted in 2013 by each team. One caveat....it is possible that a player may have played and produced for a team that didn't draft him. I did NOT take that into account. So here they are, the draft, 3 years hence:

 

Here are the original grades that Mel Kiper gave to each teams 2013 draft just after the draft for comparison. (the fact is, he was not too harsh on anybody):

 

A Grades (over 75)

 

Green Bay Packers, highest score: 100 Eddy Lacy, David Bakhtari, Micah Hydy top producers Original Kiper grade: B-

Detroit Lions, 86 grade: Ezekial Ansah, Larry Warford, top producers Original Kiper grade: B

 

A- Grades (70-74 Scores)

 

Dallas Cowboys 72 O.K Grade: C+

Jacksonville Jaguars 71 O.K. Grade: B+

Pittsburgh Steelers 71 (Bell) O.K. Grade: B

ARizona Cardinals 70 O.K. Grade: B

 

B+ grades (60-69 scores)

 

LA (StL) Rams 69 O.K. Grade: A-

Oakland Raiders 66 O.K. Grade: B-

Chicago Bears 64 O.K.Grade: C+

San Diego Chargers 63 O.K. Grade: B

 

B+ Grades (55-59 scores)

 

Philadelphia Eagles 59 O.K Grade: B+

Minnesota Vikings 58 O.K. Grade: B

New Orleans Saints 57 O.K. Grade: B-

NY Jets 56 O.K. Grade: B

 

B- Grades (50-54 scores)

 

Kansas City Chiefs 54 O.K. Grade: B

Houston Texans 52 O.K. Grade: B

Baltimore Ravens 52 O.K. Grade: A (he always grades the rats asses with an A)

Carolina Panthers 51 O.K Grade: C+

Tennessee Titans 51 O.K. Grade A-

New England Patriots 50 O.K. Grade: C+

 

C+ Grades (45-49 scores)

 

Tampa Bay Bucs 49 O.K Grade: B

Buffalo Bills 46 O.K. Grade: C-

Cincinnati Bengals 46 O.K Grade: A

 

C Grades (40-44 scores)

 

Miami Dolphins 44 O.K. Grade: B-

Atlanta Falcons 42 O.K. Grade: B

 

C- Grades (35-39 scores)

 

NY Giants 37 O.K. Grade: C+

Washingtion Redskins 36 O.K Grade: C+

 

D+ Grades (30- 34 scores)

 

Indianapolis Colts 34 O.K. Grade C+

Seattle Seahawks 31 O.K. Grade: C-

San Francisco 49ers 31 O.K. Grade: B

 

D Grades (25-29 scores)

 

Denver Broncos 28 O.K. Grade: B-

 

D- Grades (20-24 scores)

 

None

 

F Grades (below 20 scores)

 

Cleveland Browns 17 (Barkevious Mingo...11 pts, most productive.....Armonty Bryant round 7 next) O.K. Grade: C+

Kiper's most underrated drafts of 2013: Packers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bears

 

Kiper's most overrated drafts of 2013: Ravens, Browns, Bengals, 49ers, Broncos, Titans.

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So start 11 QBs on offense?

 

Actually it's a lesson in reaching for an OT when it's a position of need. I have to see both athleticism and signs of technique to consider an OT in R1.

 

Can't speak to Fischer, but with Joeckel the former was in question when he came out.

 

More recently there was everyone's Combine dream-date, Greg Robinson. A whole lot of folks were all over this giant athlete whose technique would be coached up at the next level. Someone here ( :) ) warned of that danger.

 

Ditto the above for 2015 wundertackle, Brandon Scherff... who at least came on as an OG... a very pricey, 5th overall OG.

 

2016? Beware Stanley (technique) and Conklin (athleticism)... Book it!

 

Tunsil - Decker 2016! Plus a guy named Coleman...

Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?

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There is an obvious flaw with this. According to the Brownsboard there is no way an Alabama RB can be a good draft pick. We all know we will never even see Derrick Henry running through our defense this Oct. when he will be sitting on the bench. :P

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here is the thread I referenced in my last post wherein some entity graded the Browns 2016 draft #1.

 

Kiper gave the Ravens and Bengals the top grades of an A that year. (He always gives the Ravens an A). In my regrading those teams got B- and C+ respectively.

The best actual drafts: Green Bay and Detroit, he only gave a B to.

 

I don't know what the analytical sites may have given in grades for 2013. I wonder if those sites even existed then.

 

Edit note: actually, I see where that site referenced in the other thread also gave Cinci a Top 5 grade in 2013....but that hasn't really panned out that well. Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard have had some decent production...but overall their draft didn't grade out all that well.

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Ansah at that time was absolutely not a surefire hit -- he was a project

For Ravens Ricky Wagner, Brandon Williams, Matt Elam had some production.

 

And as noted, the Browns graded out an F.........no wonder, as this was the Mike Lombardi draft. He brought us Barkevious Mingo.

And his first stint here he brought us the stellar choices of Tommy Vardell, Antonio Langham and Craig Powell.

Whose fucking idea was it to bring him back? (I think actually the NFL foisted him upon the Browns and Jimmy Haslam)

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Sorry, are you saying that those last 3 will be worth it all....or will become bust outs?

 

Those three players will be worthy of the place they were drafted.

 

 

As for Kiper grades... in part he grades based upon his perception of how well the team filled its needs.

 

As for the Ravens' 2016 grade... considering the number of picks they started with and the quality of players they landed, especially on Day 2, there is no way I can see how a middling grade is justifiable.

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Those three players will be worthy of the place they were drafted.

 

 

As for Kiper grades... in part he grades based upon his perception of how well the team filled its needs.

 

As for the Ravens' 2016 grade... considering the number of picks they started with and the quality of players they landed, especially on Day 2, there is no way I can see how a middling grade is justifiable.

So, are you saying that the Ravens deserve their A grade because they filled their needs, but the Browns deserve a C grade because they didn't?

Except...of course, in theory the Browns filled their needs every bit as well or better than the Ravens did.

We needed Receivers....Check...got the Biletnikoff winner

We needed pass rushers....Check...got the best in football, plus another DE and OLB to fill that role

We needed a RT....Check...got Shon Coleman

We needed a safety....Check....got Caldwell, who may work out.

We needed an ILB....Check...Got a couple.

We needed a developmental QB.....Check....got Kessler.

 

Maybe Kiper thought that there was perhaps someone on his board that could have filled these positions better where they were drafted.....but that is all opinion.

And as the title of this thread says.....we have to wait 3 years hence before we can really tell.

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So you have 2 years and 1 months left to argue despite no possibility of resolution....

Three years and one month. My grade was after these players being in the league for 3 years.

 

For what its worth, there are actually an number of first rounders from that 2013 draft that have been bigger busts than Barkevious Mingo, including:

Dion Jordon DE Miami

Dee Milliner DB Jets

Jonathan Cooper OG Cards

Datone Jones DE Packers

EJ Manuel QB Bills

DJ Hayden DB Raiders

Tyler Eifert TE Bengals

Matt Elam DB Ravens

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Tyler Eifert has contributed a tremendous amount more to his team than Mingo

Well, the CA numbers say they have produce equally throughout the years. Perhaps because Eifert is a skill player and has a certain number of catches/yards/TDs that it seems that he has contributed more, but that one stat says that Mingos 7 sacks and 1 career Int. are the equivalent of what Eifert has done.

In three years he has averaged about 31 catches a year for about 340 yards. I am not defending Mingos contributions as being positive....but Eifert may not be all that and a bag of chips either, all things considered.

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Well, the CA numbers say they have produce equally throughout the years. Perhaps because Eifert is a skill player and has a certain number of catches/yards/TDs that it seems that he has contributed more, but that one stat says that Mingos 7 sacks and 1 career Int. are the equivalent of what Eifert has done.

In three years he has averaged about 31 catches a year for about 340 yards. I am not defending Mingos contributions as being positive....but Eifert may not be all that and a bag of chips either, all things considered.

True, Eifert just had his first good year
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